Trading Statement
Old Mutual PLC
25 November 2002
OLD MUTUAL PLC
Update on current trading and pre-close statement
This announcement contains a report from the Board of Old Mutual plc (the
Company) on trading in the ten months ended 31 October 2002 and the outlook
anticipated for the year ending 31 December 2002. Nedcor Limited, the Company's
separately JSE-listed banking subsidiary gave a detailed update on its own
trading on 21 November 2002. The full text of Nedcor's statement is available
on the Company's website, www.oldmutual.com.
Old Mutual is in the second phase of its internationalisation. The third
quarter of 2002 has seen the Company continue to focus on the key elements of
bedding down its US and UK international acquisitions, and growing its franchise
in South Africa.
Poor equity markets around the world have made conditions difficult for those of
our operations that are equity oriented. However, the diversity of our
operations worldwide has ensured our trading has continued to demonstrate
considerable resilience. In the US in particular, our equity-oriented businesses
are balanced by the fixed interest focus of life insurance businesses. This,
together with our leading position in South Africa has sustained earnings at a
satisfactory level, although somewhat lower than in the first half. Moreover,
our core life assurance businesses have not been affected by the problems, which
have afflicted the insurance sector in Europe.
We have made considerable progress in bringing strategic focus to the Group,
with the sale of our UK broking arms, GNI and Old Mutual Securities, the sale of
further financial affiliates in the US, the sale of NWQ (where we had the
opportunity to establish a sales relationship with Nuveen) and the incorporation
of Thompson, Siegal & Walmsley, Inc (TSW) into our strategic affiliate holdings.
Whilst these sales were earnings dilutive, they have strengthened the Company's
capital position and will allow us to concentrate on our core businesses.
Earlier in the year we acquired BoE, the sixth largest bank in South Africa.
This makes Nedcor the largest bank in South Africa by many measures, and the
integration is a major focus for Richard Laubscher and his team. There are a
number of one-off effects of this acquisition that will flow through into our
2002 accounts. It is expected to deliver R900 million per annum in
rationalisation and cost synergies for the enlarged Nedcor group by 2005.
Life new business sales to the end of October totalled £3.5 billion, or £507
million on an Annual Premium Equivalent (APE) basis. Strong new business sales
at our US life operations have been the highlight, accounting for 58% of the
total. South African life sales have so far continued at the levels of the first
half, against the backdrop of a declining JSE. At a product level, margins
remained similar in this period compared with the first half of the year. Total
value of new business for the Group, for the year to 31 October is £92 million.
Assets under management worldwide for retained businesses declined 16% for the
year to date, primarily because of the decline in markets. Our US asset
management businesses have continued to focus on building distribution
capabilities to attract new funds, with net inflows of $3.7 billion for the 10
months to 31 October 2002 much helped by continuing good investment performance.
Relative performance of funds under management at our asset management
businesses has been satisfactory, having outperformed weak equity markets over
the year to date. Funds managed by our US business have fallen by 10%, compared
to a fall of 23% in the US S&P 500, and the UK businesses are 19% lower,
compared with a 23% fall for the UK FTSE 100. On an asset-weighted basis, some
80% of our US institutional assets have exceeded their benchmark over a 3 and
5-year period. We derive strength from the diversity of our portfolio of
activities, with recent good performance from fixed interest and value-style
investment managers in our Group.
The strengthening of the Rand since the beginning of 2002 has benefited the
Group's embedded value when expressed in Sterling, which was approximately 100p
per share as at 31 October 2002 but has caused significant translation losses at
Nedcor, which are consolidated in our results. As in the first half of 2002,
the fall in the average exchange rate of the Rand against Sterling between 2001
and 2002 will adversely affect operating profit for our core South African
financial services businesses for 2002 when reported in Sterling.
Outlook
We expect the balance of the year broadly to follow recent trends. Our results
will always be affected by currency and market levels, but the diversity of our
business makes our earnings resilient in a tough environment. Our management
team will continue to take strong action to contain expenses where necessary,
and to develop products that suit the cautious requirements of the times. We
expect to continue to be able to take advantage of the opportunities these
conditions afford.
ENQUIRIES:
Old Mutual plc
James Poole (UK) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7569 0100
Nad Pillay (SA) Tel: +27 (0) 21 504 8026
Tel: +27 (0) 82 553 7980
College Hill (UK) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7457 2020
Gareth David
Tony Friend
College Hill (SA) Tel: +27 (0) 11 447 3030
Nicholas Williams
Robyn Hunt
Julian Roberts, Group Finance Director, will be hosting a conference call for
analysts at 9.30 a.m. GMT (11.30 a.m. South African time) this morning. The
call will include a brief introduction followed by an opportunity for questions.
To obtain the number prior to 9.30 a.m, analysts can contact Old Mutual plc
Investor Relations department on Tel: +44 (0) 20 7569 0166.
25 November 2002
Appendix 1 to Old Mutual plc update on current trading dated 25 November 2002
South Africa - Life Assurance and Asset Management
In the Group's South African life assurance business, new premiums and operating
earnings have been impacted by difficult equity markets and rising interest
rates in the period since 30 June 2002. For the ten months ended 31 October
2002, operating earnings in Rand terms have advanced only slowly on the 2001
equivalents. New business sales and earnings for the remaining two months of
the year may continue to be adversely impacted if poor investment market
conditions persist.
APE sales for the first 10 months reached R3,040 million. Margins at a product
level and overall are in line with 2001. The total value of new business for
the ten months to 31 October 2002 was R773 million, compared to R840 million for
the year ended 31 December 2001 and R403 million for the first half of 2002.
Individual Business new recurring premiums have continued to perform well, at
levels somewhat higher than in the first half of 2002 and in line with the
second half of 2001. The recently launched Greenlight flexible range of
insurance protection products continues to attract significant inflows.
Individual single premium sales are strongly correlated to investment markets
and remained at levels similar to the second half of last year. Total
Individual Business APE for the ten months to 31 October 2002 was R2,203 million
compared to the 2001 full year APE of R2,467 million and the 2002 first half APE
of R1,270 million.
New business APE through bancassurance for the year to 31 October 2002 was some
9% up on the same period last year. Further progress has been made on
distribution with increases in both the size and the productivity of the sales
force and cost control continues to be a focus.
Group Business single premium sales have been strong since the half-year, while
new recurring premiums were below the levels achieved in the first half of the
year. Total Group Business APE for the ten months was R689 million, which
compares with an APE of R354 million for the first half of 2002 and R675 million
for the full year 2001. Considerable progress is being made in improving the
servicing capabilities of this business, with the first client now successfully
transferred onto our new system.
Total client funds managed in South Africa were R252 billion at 31 October 2002.
This was marginally down on funds managed of R262 billion at 30 June 2002,
primarily reflecting the lower local and global equity markets.
South Africa - Banking
The core operating performance of the Group's 53.2% owned South African banking
group, Nedcor, has been satisfactory in challenging conditions and has produced
sound growth compared to the same period in 2001.Growth in advances, excluding
the recently acquired BoE, has been very satisfactory at 15%, and retail deposit
growth has likewise been positive.
The BoE integration is proceeding well and it is anticipated that annualised
cost synergy savings and rationalisation benefits of some R900m before tax will
be achieved in 2005. BoE was under stress when it was acquired; however strong
returns of deposit flows and good progress have been achieved in most areas as
it returns towards expected profit levels.
Nedcor's management has conducted an initial review of the fair value of BoE's
assets at acquisition, resulting in a write-down of some R700m, including
prudent write-downs of its micro-loan book. In addition, one-off downward
adjustments to bring BoE's accounting policies into line with those of the Group
will amount to some R170m. After these adjustments, goodwill arising on the
acquisition of BoE will be approximately R2.6 billion, giving a price to book
ratio of approximately 1.6, which is consistent with findings of the due
diligence exercise at acquisition.
With the completion of the acquisition of BoE and the buyout of minority
shareholders in Nedcor Investment Bank, Nedcor is launching an issue of
non-redeemable, non-cumulative preference shares which will rank as tier 1
capital for capital adequacy purposes and increase the diversity of its capital
mix and replenish its capital adequacy surplus.
Nedcor has also undertaken a review of its policy towards bad and doubtful debts
and provisioning levels. It is anticipated that additional provisions of R320
million will be charged against earnings this year, including R50 million for
loans to the micro-lending market, which has experienced exceptional
difficulties during 2002.
Nedcor's investment in Dimension Data will also be reviewed at the year-end. At
current market levels, this would lead to a further write-down of R275 million
this year.
The strengthening of the Rand in recent weeks is likely to result in significant
translation losses on Nedcor's non-Rand based assets. At half-year, with the
Rand/Sterling rate at 15.85, translation losses of R436 million were reported,
affecting headline operating earnings. If Rand strength continues, Nedcor's
headline earnings will be significantly lower than in 2001.
South Africa - General Insurance
Mutual & Federal, our 51%-owned general insurance subsidiary, has achieved
growth in premium income for the 10 months to end of October 2002 of 14%. It
expects to maintain an improvement on the 2001 results in the second half of
this year despite higher claims experience in July and August. Maintaining the
improvement in underwriting ratios reported in the first half will depend on an
improvement in claims experience and the steps being taken by management to
raise profitability in the final two months of the year.
USA - Life Assurance
The Group's US life operations are substantially the fixed interest annuity
product business of Fidelity & Guaranty Life. Performance for the year to date
has been highly satisfactory with sales continuing at a high rate, earnings
starting to emerge from the good sales achieved earlier in the year and at the
end of 2001, and credit experience being satisfactory.
Sales for the four month period 1 July to 31 October 2002 of $1.5 billion
represent 206% growth over the same period last year and are at a comparable
level to the $2.2 billion achieved in the first half of 2002 despite our action
to reduce crediting rates in order to control volumes. As a result we expect
volumes in the last quarter to be considerably lower. The value of new business
for the first ten months of 2002 was $62.5 million. Margins, at 15%, are ahead
of 2001 rates but are slightly lower than the half-year reported results.
At the end of October US life had total assets of $12.1 billion, primarily
invested through Old Mutual affiliate Dwight Asset Management, compared with
$5.6 billion when we purchased the company and $9.2 billion at 30 June. Under
both UK and US statutory reporting methodologies, new sales make a small loss at
issue and only marginal profits in the year of issue but require solvency
capital immediately. As a result, we expect to have contributed some $250
million in capital during 2002 to support the huge growth.
Since the interim results there have been no exceptional credit problems in the
investment portfolio, and default rates in the bonds used to back the policies
are within the expected range.
USA - Asset Management
The Group's US asset management business has undergone considerable
transformation, including launching new distribution strategies in the retail
mutual fund and wrap investment product markets, completing the sale of NWQ,
bringing TSW into the strategic group on profit sharing terms and reducing
central costs by around $25 million. Further disposals of non-core affiliates
have been made in the second half of this year.
At the beginning of the year the Group announced a key target to secure positive
cash inflows from investors. This has been one of the most difficult periods the
US fund management industry has seen in recent times, so it is satisfying to be
able to report that overall the business has recorded net fund inflows of $3.7
billion for the year to date.
The US asset management business achieved strong relative investment performance
overall over the year to date, with particularly good performance from our fixed
interest and value-style investment managers. Assets under management declined
10% excluding divestitures and net fund flows, compared to a 23% decline for the
S&P 500 Index, a 32% decline for the NASDAQ Composite Index, a 16% decline for
the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and a 9% gain for the Lehman Brothers
Aggregate Bond Index. At 31 October 2002, funds under management totalled $125
billion.
The formation of Old Mutual Investment Partners was announced in October. Its
purpose is to enhance distribution capabilities to programme sponsors in the
managed account market. Old Mutual Investment Partners will perform sales,
marketing and client-service functions for participating Old Mutual member
firms.
Synergy between the Group's US life and asset management businesses continues to
be strong. Dwight's investment performance on behalf of US life has been good.
Analytic Investors have recently been awarded a mandate to manage a specialist
portfolio on behalf of the US life business, initially valued at approximately
$1.2 billion. The five new funds sub-advised by Old Mutual firms, which were
introduced to Pilgrim Baxter's PBHG Funds towards the end of last year, have
continued to attract investor assets, with $1.6 billion managed through this
platform at the end of October 2002.
Equity markets have shown few signs of sustained recovery, with the main US
equity indices hitting new lows for the year at the close of the third Quarter.
This, coupled with the sale of NWQ with effect from 1 July, will lead to lower
profits in the second half.
UK
Market conditions have also been very difficult in the UK in the second half of
the year. The FTSE 100 Index declined by 13% between 30 June and 31 October
2002, and asset-based revenues for the Group's UK businesses have consequently
been much reduced. Retail market activity levels have also remained low over
this period.
In the light of the declining market conditions and its impact on revenues,
strong action has been taken in Gerrard, where sales trends have continued
broadly in line with those of the first half. Despite the benefit of a reduced
expense base from the management actions in 2001 and the first half of 2002,
further cost reduction initiatives, including staff redundancies and branch
restructuring during the second half, are expected to result in a charge of up
to £5 million this year. OMAM (UK) continues to achieve positive fund flows
despite the market conditions.
The successful completion of the sale of GNI to Man Group plc underlines our
focus on our core asset accumulation and management activities, releasing
capital that can be recycled towards these activities within the Group.
Including dividends paid, repayment of subordinated capital and the
consideration for GNI equity, total proceeds of the sale were in excess of £125
million. The conditional sale of Old Mutual Securities to Secure Trust was
announced on 11 November 2002 for a consideration equal to the business's net
assets plus future payments based on levels of profitability achieved up to a
maximum value of £12 million, to be paid in a mixture of cash and loan notes.
With the restructuring of our UK business substantially completed, Edmond
Warner, CEO of Old Mutual Financial Services (UK), has tendered his resignation
to pursue other career options. He is expected to leave the Group at the end of
March 2003.
Balance Sheet
The group continues to manage the capital position prudently and makes sure that
capital is available to group subsidiaries where returns are beneficial. Group
access to debt and credit markets means that we have been able to secure an
attractive funding structure with gearing at year-end expected to be marginally
down on the position at the end of 2001.
The South African life assurance business remains well capitalised at 2.3 times
the statutory capital adequacy requirement (SCAR) at 31 October 2002. The cover
has decreased from 2.6 times at 30 June 2002, which is primarily due to the fall
in the South African equity markets and has not experienced any of the capital
issues affecting the UK and European life companies.
A review has been carried out of the carrying value of the UK and USA asset
management businesses purchased in 2000 and 2001. Despite the reduction in
equity markets worldwide, the directors are satisfied that no impairment of
these assets will be necessary at year-end.
Forward looking statements
This announcement contains certain forward looking statements with respect to
the financial condition and results of operations of Old Mutual plc and Group
companies, which by their nature involve risk and uncertainty because they
relate to events and depend on circumstances that may occur in the future.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the
forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and
regional economic conditions, levels of securities markets, interest rates,
credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, and competitive and
regulatory factors.
Preliminary Results
Old Mutual plc expects to announce its preliminary results for the year ending
31 December 2002 on 24 February 2003. It is expected that Nedcor Limited will
announce its preliminary results on 12 February 2003.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange