Trading Update
Old Mutual PLC
8 November 2001
OLD MUTUAL PLC
Announcement of analysts meetings and trading update
On Monday 12 November 2001, Old Mutual plc will be hosting briefing meetings
for analysts and investors in the USA. This will provide an opportunity to
review progress in the substantial asset management and life assurance
businesses acquired in North America during the past 15 months.
In advance of those discussions and, in the light of recent conditions in
equity markets, the company is providing an update on current trading in
respect of the Group's wholly-owned subsidiaries. It is intended that a
similar statement will be made in future years to update the market before the
year end close period.
In the period since 30 June 2001, generally poor trading conditions in world
equity markets have been compounded by the events of 11 September in the USA.
As noted in our interim results presentation, equity market levels have a
direct impact on earnings from the Group's asset management and broking
activities. In addition significant movements in currency markets, notably
between the Rand and our principal reporting currency, Sterling, have a direct
translation effect on Group earnings and shareholders' net assets as reported
in Sterling.
US Businesses - Life Assurance
During 2001, Old Mutual has entered the life assurance market in the USA with
its acquisitions of Americom Life and Fidelity & Guaranty Life ('F&G'). The
results of F&G are consolidated from 1 July 2001. Post-acquisition, F&G has
been awarded financial strength ratings from the independent rating agencies,
AM Best and Fitch & Co of A/A+ respectively, reflecting the strong
asset-liability management position of the life assurance business and the
strengthened capital and strategic position under Old Mutual ownership.
Trading so far this year has been ahead of management's expectations. F&G and
Americom Life, which commenced direct marketing sales in 2001, both specialise
in life assurance and fixed annuities products. Demand for these products has
been consistently strong before and since 11 September. Claims against the
Group on lives assured arising from the tragic events of that date are small
in number and in absolute size, and are not expected to have a material impact
on the business.
US Businesses - Asset Management
2001 has been a difficult period for the US asset management industry
generally. The impact of volatile and declining markets has substantially
reduced asset values which have a direct impact on revenues from fees. Old
Mutual member firms recently published their assets under management figures
at the end of the third quarter showing funds under management of US$135
billion, compared to US$152 billion on a like for like basis at the end of
June 2001. Against the poor market background the performance of Old Mutual's
US asset management businesses has been encouraging.
The investment quality of the money managers in Old Mutual's member firms has
been recognised in public ratings and industry benchmarks. Our principal
mutual fund firm, Pilgrim Baxter, continues to diversify its product range and
has recently registered with the SEC to distribute five sub-advisory funds
from within the Old Mutual stable. Over the first three quarters of the year,
fund inflows into Pilgrim Baxter were net positive and the company has
benefited from a number of substantial new mandates won.
As part of the alignment of Pilgrim Baxter within the Old Mutual Group, an
option was put in place for Old Mutual to purchase the remaining revenue share
and related expenses for a total consideration of $420 million payable in six
annual instalments. The period for exercise of this option runs until December
2001. Old Mutual is currently in negotiations with management over these
arrangements. If the option is not exercised, Pilgrim Baxter management would
be entitled to a 20% revenue share in the business for a ten-year period.
The multi-style nature of the total family of firms in Old Mutual's US
institutional asset management operations has been a particular strength in
these volatile conditions. Dwight Asset Management has continued its
successful development as one of the leading fixed income managers in the USA.
During the third quarter, it was agreed that it would take responsibility
for fund management activities for F&G. Clay Finlay, the international equity
specialist, continues to attract new funds, with a high proportion of recent
new accounts being secured from international clients based across the globe.
Fund flows remain satisfactory overall, although two firms within Old Mutual
Asset Managers (US) suffered fund outflows following the withdrawal of a
number of sub-advisory relationships from one substantial client. The impact
of these withdrawals will arise from the fourth quarter. The remaining member
firms had a balance of positive cash flows. If this performance is maintained
for the rest of the year, the Group expects to achieve its stated target for
the year of stemming the fund outflows seen in the periods prior to Old
Mutual's acquisition of these businesses.
South African Businesses
The underlying performance of the Group's wholly-owned operations in South
Africa (which are the largest of the Group's profit contributors) remains
satisfactory and there has been no material change of performance since the
interim results. In the South African life assurance operations, the
improvement in new business flows, including single premium sales, has
continued in the third quarter.
UK Businesses
The events of 11 September have exacerbated the weak trading environment
already prevailing for Old Mutual's UK operations during 2001. This has had a
particularly negative impact on the performance of Gerrard, which is currently
trading at a loss, having already booked a loss for the third quarter.
A sustained drop in trading volumes has had a marked negative effect on
commission income earned by Gerrard. This is only partially offset by good
trading in the wholesale risk management products of GNI.
The substantial project to re-engineer the back office systems of Gerrard has
recently been completed, and trading on the new platform is proceeding well.
Private client assets under management and the client base continue to hold up
satisfactorily despite difficult market conditions. Management is conducting
a review of actions to redress the situation.
GNI has benefited from an increase in trading in the fixed interest and equity
derivatives business as investors follow risk minimisation strategies. During
2001 a re-focused GNI Fund Management has launched additions to its specialist
range of hedge funds and risk management products.
On 24 October, management announced a decision to merge the retail funds
businesses of Old Mutual Asset Managers (UK) Ltd and Gerrard Investment Funds
under the management of OMAM UK. This integration is expected to yield
substantial benefits in terms of improved client service, broader product
scope, and meaningful savings from the elimination of duplication.
Financial Impacts
Operating profits of the Group's wholly-owned South African businesses
expressed in Rand are not directly affected by changes in currency rates.
However, the underlying growth in all our Rand-based businesses will be
affected in the Group accounts when reported in Sterling by a decline in the
rate of exchange. The average Rand/£ exchange rate for the year to date (31
October) was 11.82 compared to 10.52 for the year ended 31 December 2000. The
current Rand/£ rate is R13.98. The company calculates that this depreciation
will adversely impact earnings for the current year expressed in Sterling by
12% on a year-to-year comparison.
Declining global equity markets have adversely affected our assessment of the
value of the acquired asset management and broking businesses. It is currently
anticipated that, in addition to normal amortisation, there will be a
write-down of purchased goodwill of up to £650 million.
It is currently anticipated that following a review of the portfolio of
strategic and unquoted asset management investments, a write-down of
approximately £20 million will be made this year.
The recent currency volatility, particularly affecting the South African Rand,
has had an impact on the value of the Group's assets held in currencies other
than Sterling, when translated into Sterling. At 30 June 2001, total
shareholders' funds stood at £3,692 million. The translation of total
shareholders' funds at 30 June 2001 using exchange rates at 31 October 2001
would result in total shareholders' funds declining to £3,326 million.
Commenting, Julian Roberts, Group Finance Director, said:
'Conditions in equity markets have continued to adversely affect the results
of Old Mutual, but our major businesses continue to show resilience relative
to their peers. Management is responding vigorously to the challenge of
continuing to deliver excellent performance to our many clients and to reduce
expenses where revenues have declined. Our operations are in a good position
to take advantage of any recovery in the year ahead.'
Conference Call:
There will be an analysts' telephone conference call with Julian Roberts at
08.45 this morning, UK time (10.45 South African time). To participate please
dial the following number in London, + 44 20 8240 8242, quoting reference
343176, and follow the audio instructions. Should you not be able to
participate a replay facility is in place for 48 hours immediately following
the conference call. To activate the replay facility dial the following
number in London, +44 20 8288 4459, quoting reference 343176, and follow the
audio instructions.
Forward-looking statements: This announcement contains certain
forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition and results
of operations of Old Mutual plc and Group companies, which by their nature
involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on
circumstances that may occur in the future. Factors that could cause actual
results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements
include, but are not limited to, global, national and regional economic
conditions, levels of securities markets, interest rates, credit or other
risks of lending and investment activities, and competitive and regulatory
factors.
Old Mutual expects to announce its preliminary statements of results for the
year to 31 December 2001 on 26 February 2002. It is expected that Nedcor
Limited will release its results for the year ending 31 December 2001 on 13
February 2002. Consequently, Old Mutual expects to go into close period on 12
December 2001.
8 November 2001
ENQUIRIES
Old Mutual plc
(Cape Town)
Julian Roberts Group Finance Director
James Poole, Director Investor Relations
Mike Willis, Manager Investor Relations South Africa Tel: + 27 21 509 6929
Old Mutual plc
(London)
Anton Sweet, Investor Relations Tel: + 44 20 7569 0100
College Hill
(London)
Gareth David
Nicholas Williams Tel: + 44 20 7457 2020
College Hill
(Johannesburg)
Robyn Hunt Tel: + 27 11 447 3030