Trading update

Old Mutual PLC 11 May 2005 Old Mutual plc Trading update for the three months to 31 March 2005 Encouraging start to the year • Total life assurance sales on an annual premium equivalent (APE) basis of GBP134 million, R1,520 million (2004: GBP112 million, R1,394 million), an increase of 19% in Sterling, (9% in Rand) compared with first quarter 2004 - South Africa: Up 11%, with better results at PFA and Employee Benefits. Brokers and Group Schemes produced business below expectations. - USA: Up 22%, with life and offshore annuity sales strong and Equity Index Annuities up 13% on the equivalent period in 2004. • Total funds under management GBP143 billion, R1,686 billion (31 December 2004: GBP140 billion, R1,520 billion) a rise of 2% (11% in Rand) since year end. - SA: down 1%, as outflows offset positive equity markets - USA: up 5% since 31 December 2004, with strong net cash inflow ($9.4 billion). - UK: up 10% compared to 31 December 2004, with strong net cash flow of GBP296 million at OMAM(UK) and Selestia already exceeding full year 2004 cash flow of GBP215 million. • Nedcor: net interest income up 23% and non-interest revenue marginally ahead of prior year. Recovery on track. • Mutual & Federal trading well, but premium growth held back by pricing pressure in the industry. • Embedded value per share of 137.0p (R1,614c) at 31 March 2005, (31 December 2004: 139.1p (R1,508c)). Jim Sutcliffe, Chief Executive, commented: 'Growth of 19% in life sales has been an encouraging start to the year. Our investment in the USA and UK continues to produce strong sales and net client cash flow. The announcement of our Black Economic Empowerment arrangements is expected to have a positive effect on our businesses and we look forward to their confirmation at the EGM. The operational platform we have now established allows us to look forward to steady progress in the remainder of the year.' Encouraging Start to 2005 The first quarter of 2005 has seen the Group consolidate the gains made in 2004, with further strong progress made in the USA and the UK. In South Africa unit trust sales were very strong and the life business had improved sales performance. Group business sales grew strongly, albeit from a low base, with Individual Life sales up marginally. There was an encouraging result from our PFA sales force, particularly in regular premium savings products, but Group Schemes sales continued to show the impact of agent turnover in the second half of 2004. The broker term market has been very competitive and results were disappointing. Margins were similar in each product line, but changes in product mix led to lower average margins than the 2004 average but in line with the first quarter 2004. Expenses were heavier than usual as we extended our efforts to improve sales. Net cash outflow was a disappointing R12.5 billion, of which R10 billion related to our share of a withdrawal of R22 billion of funds from the market by the Public Investment Corporation. Nedcor is seeing the benefits from the strategic changes made in 2004, with an improved cost to income ratio and higher net interest income. Much work remains to be done, but we are achieving the milestones we have set ourselves. In a market characterised by softening terms and rates, Mutual & Federal maintained its prudent underwriting standards: there has been pressure on premiums, but satisfactory levels of underwriting profitability have continued to be achieved. We were pleased to announce our BEE ownership transactions in April. Our proposals make good business sense for the Group, as they are designed to build our customer base, incentivise our employees and add the strength of our selected partners. We are confident these arrangements will have a positive effect on the performance of our South African businesses going forward. Our US businesses performed very strongly during the first quarter. Equity index annuity sales continued to grow, but we were able to make even faster progress in sales of coverage products, where we have established market leadership in the sale of mortgage-related term insurance. The value of new business at our US life operation almost doubled. Net inflows of client assets to our US asset management business were at a record high. We have made steady progress with our retail initiative, and formed a new affiliate, 2100 Capital, that will provide a range of alternative investment strategies. These two initiatives will increase expenses in the short term, but should create value and stability in the long run. Organic growth in our UK businesses has continued apace. Selestia and OMAM(UK) combined have already exceeded their full year 2004 cashflow, with OMAM(UK) attracting healthy levels of hedge fund assets. Markets have oscillated this year and appear likely to continue to do so. Our strategy has again proved its resilience in these conditions and the fundamentals of our business are healthy. With our BEE arrangements in place, we look forward to further progress in the balance of the year. 11 May 2005 Enquiries: Old Mutual plc James Poole (UK) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7002 7000 Miranda Bellord (UK) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7002 7133 Nad Pillay (SA) Tel: +27 (0) 21 504 8026 Deward Serfontein (SA) Tel: +27 (0) 21 509 8709 College Hill (UK) - Tony Friend Tel: +44 (0) 20 7457 2020 Julian Roberts, Group Finance Director, will host a conference call for analysts and investors at 8.30 a.m. UK time/9.30 a.m. SA time this morning.The call will include a brief introduction and an opportunity for questions. Analysts and investors who wish to participate in the conference call should dial the following toll-free numbers: UK participants to ring: 0800 953 1444 SA participants to ring: 0800 994090 More information about Old Mutual can be found on its website at www.oldmutual.com. Forward-looking statements This announcement contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition and results of operations of Old Mutual plc and its group companies, which by their nature involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may occur in the future. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and regional economic conditions, levels of securities markets, interest rates, credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, and competitive and regulatory factors. Life and asset management business - South Africa Life sales up 11%, Unit trust sales up 51% Total life sales on an APE basis showed an increase of 11% compared to the first quarter last year (R725 million compared to R655 million), with unit trust sales up 51%. This improvement was driven by a significant increase in Group Business sales, up 109% at R114 million for the quarter ended 31 March 2005, albeit from a low 2004 base of R55 million. Both savings and annuity single premiums showed good growth compared to the same period last year. Individual Life assurance sales (including SA sales into Old Mutual International) for the quarter ended 31 March 2005 at R612 million were 2% higher compared to R600 million for the first quarter of 2004, with similar experience in relation to both single (up 3%) and recurring premium (up 1%) products. Reviewing the results by sales channel - Rebuilding Group Schemes sales force Group Schemes sales overall were 11% lower than in the equivalent period in 2004, reflecting the impact of sales force turnover in the second half of 2004. Our current focus is on rebuilding and growing the Group Schemes sales force, which is up 2% since 31 December 2004. - Growth in PFA sales force delivering results Our efforts in growing and developing the PFA sales force (now some 20% higher than at 31 March 2004 and 6% higher than at December 2004) are starting to be repaid with good growth in sales. This has some short-term costs, but is crucial to restore our sales levels. - Actions in place to address disappointing broker sales In contrast broker sales continued to disappoint, with life APE sales down 8%. The broker market for risk products was extremely competitive in the first quarter of 2005, with sales being driven by aggressive pricing and lenient underwriting. We responded by making some amendments to pricing and underwriting in early April. Bancassurance Bancassurance sales (new business premiums) during the first quarter of 2005 were up 12% on the first quarter of 2004. Old Mutual life sales sold through the Nedbank channel were up 32% (33% on an APE basis) for the same period. Margins remain at 13% Value of new business was up slightly at R92 million from R87 million for the first quarter last year. Total margin has remained at the same level as last year at 13%, with a decrease in the margin on Individual Business being offset by the beneficial impact of a higher proportion of Group Business in total sales. Disappointing net client cashflows Net client cash flow across the business remained disappointing, with an outflow of R10 billion of funds from OMAM(SA) previously managed for the Public Investment Corporation being the single largest contributor to an overall net outflow of R12.5 billion. Within the overall result, Life Business cash flows were negative R2.0 billion, largely as a result of new Group Business inflows being insufficient to offset the regular Group Business outflows, as well as higher terminations in Group Business of life-wrapped investment business. Individual Business flows were marginally positive in line with the prior period, whilst unit trust net flows at R0.6 billion were significantly higher. Continued strong investment performance and improved equity markets underpinned growth in our unit trust sales. Client funds under management at 31 March 2005 totalled R306 billion, an increase of 10% over the comparative position in 2004 (R277 billion), benefiting from higher market levels. Strong investment performance continues Investment performance remained strong, with OMAM(SA) ranked third out of eleven in the Alexander Forbes Manager Watch survey over one year to 31 March 2005 and third out of nine over three years. 99% over one year to 31 March 2005 and 95% over three years of funds managed by OMAM(SA) weighted by value outperformed their benchmarks. Banking - South Africa Recovery is on track Nedcor issued a trading update for the first quarter of 2005, the full text of which can be accessed on Nedcor's website, http://www.nedcor.com. Nedcor reported that trading for the quarter was in line with management expectations and that structural and strategic benefits continued to flow from actions taken in 2004.Much work remains to be done, but we are hitting the milestones we have set ourselves. Net Interest Income (NII) up by 23% NII increased to R2.0 billion for the quarter ended 31 March 2005, up by 23% over the prior year comparative. It continued to benefit from improved funding profile and hedging strategies, including uplift created from the rights offer cash received in May 2004, reduced expensive fixed rate funding, the repatriation of certain foreign capital and income earned on the proceeds of non-core investments sold during 2004. This positive performance was reflected in net interest margin of 3.1% for the first quarter ended 31 March 2005, compared to 2.8% for the comparative period in 2004. Non Interest Revenue (NIR) marginally ahead NIR of R1.7 billion was marginally higher than in the corresponding period in 2004 (R1.6 billion). Deal flow improved in the latter part of the trading period and the Nedbank Capital pipeline of potential transactions remains strong. Assets up 8% Average total assets increased by 8% to R324 billion and average interest earning assets increased 8% to R265 billion compared to the position at March 2004. General Insurance - South Africa Strong underwriting performance Mutual & Federal has issued a trading update on the first quarter 2005 today, the full text of which can be accessed on Mutual & Federal's website, http://www.mf.co.za. In a market characterised by softening terms and rates, Mutual & Federal has maintained its prudent underwriting standards. Despite pressure on premium rates, satisfactory levels of underwriting profitability have been achieved. The company has not been able to achieve premium growth in the Commercial Division (including the Corporate Business Division), whilst growth in the Personal Division has been in line with inflation levels. The Risk Finance Division has, however, continued to grow strongly. Life Business - United States Strong APE growth continues, up 22% Total US life sales for the first quarter of 2005 were $126 million (31 March 2004: $103 million) on an APE basis, an increase of 22% over the equivalent period in 2004. Whilst annuity lines have shown modest growth, sales of both life insurance coverage products and, through OMNIA, offshore annuity products have continued to be strong, delivering growth of 68% and 88% respectively over the equivalent period in 2004. Life sales have benefited from the continued development of the business's service platform, continuing building of relationships within MGA marketplace and product enhancements in the equity indexed universal life market during 2004. OMNIA sales have received a boost from the withdrawal of a competitor, but also reflect strengthening relationships with major bank distributors. Margins significantly up at 24% The value of new business at US life for the first quarter of 2005 increased to $31 million (31 March 2004: $16 million) at a significantly improved margin of 24% compared to the 15.5% achieved for the same period in 2004. Funds under management at 31 March 2005 increased by 23% to $18.3 billion from $14.9 billion at 31 March 2004 and by $1 billion since 31 December 2004. The business remains on track for capital self-sufficiency in 2007. Asset Management - United States Excellent net fund flows: $9.4 billion Funds at our US asset management business increased by 5% to $194.5 billion at 31 March 2005 from $184.6 billion at 31 December 2004. Positive net inflows of client assets for the quarter contributed a record high of $9.4 billion (31 March 2004: $2.2 billion), including $2 billion of cash collateral assets, driven by several new mandates and a reduction in client outflows. Sales of businesses in Japan accounted for a reduction of $0.2 billion of funds under management. Market action accounted for the remaining increase of $0.7 billion. Steady progress has been made on our retail initiative as we continue to build this platform, with year to date gross sales of $217 million. We have also progressed with our alternative investment initiative, and formed a new affiliate, 2100 Capital, which will shortly provide a range of alternative investment strategies. These two initiatives increase expenses in the short term, but position us well for future growth. United Kingdom Strong organic growth continues Funds under management at our UK operations rose to GBP4.6 billion at 31 March 2005, a 15% increase over the position at 31 March 2004. Strong sales at Selestia of GBP138 million (31 March 2004: GBP105 million), brought its total assets under management to GBP866 million (31 March 2004: GBP386 million). OMAM(UK) has achieved net cash inflows of GBP166 million for the first quarter of 2005 compared to net cash outflows of GBP15 million for the first quarter of 2004. Net cash flow for OMAM(UK) and Selestia for the first quarter (GBP296 million) exceeded the comparable figure for the whole of 2004 (GBP215 million). Julian Roberts 11 May 2005 Group Finance Director Old Mutual plc May 2005 - Trading Statement Supplementary Disclosure Full YR 1.0 OLD MUTUAL GROUP 2004 2004 Funds under Management Q1 H1 Q3 Sterling (bn) 128 130 134 140 Rand (bn) 1,484 1,469 1,564 1,520 US Dollars (bn) 235 235 242 268 Life Assurance Sales Sterling (mn) 112 262 135 546 Rand (mn) 1,394 3,169 1,564 6,440 US Dollars (bn) 207 477 251 1,001 Embedded value per share Sterling (p) 113.8 139.1 Rand (cent) 1,286 1,508 US Dollars (cent) 207.1 266.5 1.0 OLD MUTUAL GROUP 2005 Change % change Funds under Management Q1 Q1,05 v Q1,04 Sterling (bn) 143 15 12% Rand (bn) 1,686 202 14% US Dollars (bn) 270 35 15% Life Assurance Sales Sterling (mn) 134 22 19% Rand (mn) 1,520 126 9% US Dollars (bn) 253 46 22% Embedded value per share Sterling (p) 137.0 Rand (cent) 1,614 US Dollars (cent) 258.7 Old Mutual plc May 2005 - Trading Statement Supplementary Disclosure 1.1 GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS Full YR 2004 2004 Funds under Management* South Africa Q1 H1 Q3 OMSA (incl. OMI) 315 299 323 345 Nedcor 111 91 93 72 M&F 4 4 4 4 Total (Rbn) 430 394 420 421 Total GBPbn 37 36 36 39 US US Life 15 16 17 17 USAM (excl. US Life) 145 148 152 168 Total ($bn) 160 163 168 185 Total GBPbn 86 90 93 97 UK & ROW (GBPbn) 5 5 5 5 Total GBPbn 128 130 134 140 * Figures exclude mutual funds consolidated as per IAS Funds under Management* 2005 Change % change South Africa Q1 Q1,05 v Q1,04 OMSA (incl. OMI) 341 26 8% Nedcor 72 (39) -35% M&F 5 0 11% Total (Rbn) 418 (13) -3% Total GBPbn 35 (2) -4% US US Life 18 3 23% USAM (excl. US Life) 176 31 22% Total ($bn) 195 35 22% Total GBPbn 103 16 19% UK & ROW (GBPbn) 5 1 17% Total GBPbn 143 15 12% * Figures exclude mutual funds consolidated as per IAS Old Mutual plc May 2005 - Trading Statement Supplementary Disclosure 1.1 GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS continued 2.0 SOUTH AFRICA (Rm) Full YR Old Mutual South Africa 2004 2004 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 Sales on an annual premium equivalent basis 655 772 1429 793 862 3083 BY PRODUCT (Rm) INDIVIDUAL Savings 111 117 228 106 136 471 Protection 4 2 5 2 1 9 Group Schemes 0 0 1 0 0 1 Annuity 38 38 76 43 44 164 Old Mutual International 32 33 66 36 46 148 Total Single 185 190 376 188 229 792 Total Single excl. OMI 153 157 310 152 182 644 Savings 144 144 288 159 158 605 Protection 134 138 272 186 185 643 Group Schemes 131 157 288 171 151 610 Annuity 0 0 0 0 0 0 Old Mutual International 6 2 8 4 0 12 Total Recurring 415 441 856 520 494 1870 Total Recurring excl. OMI 409 439 848 516 494 1857 Total Individual sales 600 631 1231 708 723 2662 Total Individual sales excl. OMI 562 596 1158 668 676 2502 2005 Change % change Q1 Q1,05 v Q1,04 Sales on an annual premium equivalent basis 725 71 11% BY PRODUCT (Rm) INDIVIDUAL Savings 109 (3) -2% Protection 3 (1) -22% Group Schemes 0 0 n/a Annuity 39 2 5% Old Mutual International 40 7 22% Total Single 191 6 3% Total Single excl. OMI 151 (1) -1% Savings 165 22 15% Protection 138 3 2% Group Schemes 116 (14) -11% Annuity 0 0 n/a Old Mutual International 1 (5) -83% Total Recurring 420 5 1% Total Recurring excl. OMI 419 11 3% Total Individual sales 612 11 2% Total Individual sales excl. OMI 571 9 2% Old Mutual plc May 2005 - Trading Statement Supplementary Disclosure 2.0 SOUTH AFRICA (Rm) cont. Full YR Old Mutual South Africa 2004 2004 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 GROUP Savings 38 50 89 32 77 198 Annuity 9 7 16 13 13 42 Total Single 48 57 105 45 90 240 Savings 3 24 27 10 25 62 Protection 3 62 66 30 24 120 Total Recurring 6 84 93 40 49 182 Total Group 55 143 198 85 139 422 Value of new business (excl. OMI) 87 177 264 194 261 719 Margins % (excl. OMI) 13% 24% 19% 22% 32% 25% SA Client Funds under Management (Rbn) 277 271 271 293 312 312 Unit Trust Sales 1,133 894 2,027 1,226 1,751 5,004 Old Mutual South Africa 2005 Change % change Q1 Q1,05 v Q1,04 GROUP Savings 60 21 55% Annuity 29 20 207% Total Single 89 40 83% Savings 4 1 35% Protection 21 18 n/a Total Recurring 25 19 306% ' Total Group 114 59 109% Value of new business (excl. OMI) 92 5 5% Margins % (excl. OMI) 13% 0% -3% SA Client Funds under Management (Rbn) 306 29 10% Unit Trust Sales 1,707 574 51% Old Mutual plc May 2005 - Trading Statement Supplementary Disclosure Full YR 2.0 SOUTH AFRICA (Rm) cont. 2004 2004 Nedcor * Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 Net Interest Income 1,652 1,943 3,595 1,921 2,066 7,582 Non-Interest Revenue 1,631 1,864 3,495 1,941 2,500 7,936 Interest margin % 2.80% 3.32% 3.06% 3.26% 3.14% 3.13% Nedcor * 2005 Change % change Q1 Q1,05 v Q1,04 Net Interest Income 2,026 374 23% Non-Interest Revenue 1,713 82 5% Interest margin % 3.10% 0.30% Full YR Mutual & Federal 2004 2004 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 Gross Premiums (Rm) 1,894 1,698 3,592 2,001 1,767 7,360 Earned Premiums (Rm)1,515 1,623 3,138 1,815 1,783 6,736 *SA IAS basis Mutual & Federal 2005 Change % change Q1 Q1,05 v Q1,04 Gross Premiums (Rm) 2,060 166 9% Earned Premiums (Rm) 1,727 212 14% *SA IAS basis Old Mutual plc May 2005 - Trading Statement Supplementary Disclosure 3.0 US BUSINESSES Full YR US Life 2004 2004 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 Fixed Annuities 5 3 8 2 2 11 Immediate Annuities 11 30 41 21 23 85 Equity indexed annuities 48 71 120 61 54 234 Life 20 28 48 28 34 111 OMNIA 7 10 18 12 9 39 Corporate/FHLB 12 5 17 - 4 21 Total Product - APE $mn 103.2 147.7 250.9 124.6 126.0 501.6 Margins % 15.5% 26.0% 21.6% 23.6% 23.0% 23.0% Value of new business $mn 16.0 38.4 54.4 29.4 29.2 113 Funds under Management $bn 14.9 15.3 15.3 16.3 17.3 17.3 US Life 2005 Change % change Q1 Q1,05 v Q1,04 Fixed Annuities 1.2 (3.6) -75% Immediate Annuities 15 4.0 36% Equity indexed annuities 54.3 6.2 13% Life 34 13.8 68% OMNIA 13.9 6.5 88% Corporate/FHLB 7.5 (4.2) -36% Total Product - APE $mn 125.9 22.7 22% Margins % 24.3% 8.8% n/a Value of new business $mn 30.6 14.6 91% Funds under Management $bn 18.3 3.4 23% Full YR US Asset Management - $bn 2004 2004 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 Gross cashflows 9.2 11 20.2 9 12.4 41.6 Net client cashflow 2.2 3.0 5.2 3.3 3.8 12.3 Fund under management 160.0 163.4 163.4 168.4 184.6 184.6 US Asset Management - $bn 2005 Change % change Q1 Q1,05 v Q1,04 Gross cashflows 14.7 5.5 60% Net client cashflow 9.4 7.2 327% Fund under management 194.5 34.5 22% Old Mutual plc May 2005 - Trading Statement Supplementary Disclosure Full YR 4.0 UK 2004 2004 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 Fund under management: GBPbn OMAM (UK) 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 Other 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Net Cashflows GBPm OMAM (UK) (15.0) (84.1) (99.1) (14.7) (67.0) (180.8) Selestia 98.0 86.0 184.0 104.7 106.8 395.5 Selestia Sales GBPm 104.7 92.6 197.3 111.8 114.4 423.5 4.0 UK 2005 Change % change Q1 Q1,05 v Q1,04 Fund under management: GBPbn OMAM (UK) 3.7 0.3 9% Other 0.9 0.3 50% Net Cashflows GBPm OMAM (UK) 165.7 180.7 n/a Selestia 130.1 32.1 33% Selestia Sales GBPm 138.3 33.6 32% Full YR 5.0 Economic Statistics 2004 2004 Q1 H1 Q3 Exchange rates GBP/ZAR Average rate 12.41 12.15 11.97 11.79 Closing rate 11.61 11.30 11.71 10.85 GBP/USD Average rate 1.84 1.82 1.82 1.83 Closing rate 1.84 1.81 1.81 1.92 USD/ZAR Average rate 6.76 6.67 6.57 6.44 Closing rate 6.31 6.23 6.46 5.66 Old Mutual plc May 2005 - Trading Statement Supplementary Disclosure Full YR 5.0 Economic Statistics 2004 2004 World Indices MSCI World Index 1,059 1,063 1,048 1,169 MSCI EAFE 1,337 1,328 1,318 1,515 US Indices S&P 500 1,126 1,141 1,115 1,212 Nasdaq Composite 1,994 2,048 1,897 2,175 Russell 1000 Growth 471 479 453 493 Russell 1000 Value 592 593 599 657 Dow Jones Industrial 10,358 10,435 10,080 10,783 Ryan 5 Year Fixed Income 830 803 825 821 S&P Barra Value 568 569 572 626 Other Indices UK FTSE 100 4,386 4,464 4,571 4,814 UK ALSI 2,197 2,229 2,272 2,411 FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index 10,693 10,109 11,761 12,657 JSE/FTSE Life Insurance Index 8,989 8,846 10,356 11,767 FTSE Life Insurance Index 3,856 4,045 3,998 4,450 5.0 Economic Statistics 2005 % change Exchange rates GBP/ZAR Average rate 11.35 -9% Closing rate 11.78 1% GBP/USD Average rate 1.89 3% Closing rate 1.89 3% USD/ZAR Average rate 6.00 -11% Closing rate 6.24 -1% World Indices MSCI World Index 1,151 9% MSCI EAFE 1,504 12% US Indices S&P 500 1,181 5% Nasdaq Composite 1,999 0% Russell 1000 Growth 472 0% Russell 1000 Value 654 10% Dow Jones Industrial 10,504 1% Ryan 5 Year Fixed Income 811 -2% S&P Barra Value 607 7% Other Indices UK FTSE 100 4,894 12% UK ALSI 2,458 12% FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index 13,299 24% JSE/FTSE Life Insurance Index 12,166 35% FTSE Life Insurance Index 4,692 22% This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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