Accounting Standards
Prudential PLC
02 June 2005
EMBARGO: 07.00 hours, Thursday 2 June 2005
Prudential plc
Economic Capital, Developments in Regulatory and Financial Reporting, and
Restatement of 2004 Full Year Results under International Financial Reporting
Standards and European Embedded Value
Prudential plc publishes today selected 2004 financial information restated
under European Embedded Value (EEV) and International Financial Reporting
Standards (IFRS). The Group's underlying capital strength, cashflow and dividend
policy are not affected by the adoption of either EEV or IFRS.
In addition, we are also explaining the Group's regulatory capital position
under the Financial Groups Directive (FGD) and the Group's economic capital
position as at 31 December 2004.
Prudential's Group Finance Director, Philip Broadley, said: 'We are publishing
today a comprehensive picture of the Group's economic and regulatory capital
positions as at 31 December 2004 and the impact of adopting IFRS and EEV on our
2004 financial results. We believe that the presentation of this information
will enable investors to obtain a better understanding of the Group's capital
position and profitability.'
European Embedded Value
Prudential believes that the EEV methodology represents an improvement over
existing embedded value reporting methods used across Europe and supports its
introduction. Prudential re-iterates its belief that embedded value reporting
provides investors with a truer measure of the underlying profitability of the
Group's long-term businesses and is a valuable supplement to statutory accounts.
As a signatory to the European CFO (Chief Financial Officers) Forum on European
Embedded Value (EEV) principles, Prudential will adopt EEV methodology for its
2005 year-end results. This will replace the Achieved Profit basis, the current
supplementary basis of reporting. The adoption of the EEV methodology by
Prudential results in a 1% reduction in the Group's total shareholders' funds to
£8.5bn and an uplift of 8% in the value of new business for the year ending 31
December 2004 to £741m.
The main impact on the results arises from the effect of changes to the assumed
level of locked-in capital allocated to each business, the adoption of
product-specific risk discount rates, and an explicit valuation of the time
value of options and guarantees. The EEV results also include the value of
future profits from service companies (including fund management operations)
that support the Group's long-term businesses and the UK defined benefit
pensions scheme deficit.
International Financial Reporting Standards
From 1 January 2005, all listed European Groups must prepare their financial
statements in accordance with EU approved International Financial Reporting
Standards (IFRS). The IFRS basis replaces the current Modified Statutory Basis.
The Financial Review section of Prudential's 2004 Annual Report gave extensive
explanation of the likely changes, which are confirmed in this announcement.
Restatement under IFRS Phase 1 gives rise to a £15m reduction in operating
profit for 2004 and an increase in shareholders funds of £470m.
In conjunction with the adoption of IFRS, Prudential has reviewed all its
accounting policies and is changing the method used to determine longer term
returns included within operating profits. This change, which is not required
under IFRS, increases operating profit by £91m, offset by a corresponding
reduction in short-term fluctuations in investment returns, leaving total profit
unchanged.
Groups Directive
Under the Insurance Groups Directive (IGD), introduced in January 2001, Group
solvency is calculated by aggregating the surplus capital held in the regulated
subsidiaries, then deducting group borrowings, other than those subordinated
debt issues that qualify as capital.
The Financial Groups Directive (FGD), which has applied to Prudential since 1
January 2005, involves a similar calculation of Group solvency as for the IGD,
but the solvency test under the FGD is a continuous requirement and a regulatory
obligation. Prudential has put in place a regulatory capital projection model
for all business units to ensure that the Group meets, at all times, the
continuous solvency requirements.
As at 31 December 2004, Prudential had a surplus of £845m on the IGD basis.
Economic Capital
Prudential has determined its economic capital requirement as the amount of
capital required to ensure that the Group can meet its existing contractual and
discretionary policyholder obligations and remain solvent at all times over a
25-year time horizon, within a strict target solvency level. Economic capital
methodology is different from the regulatory capital model used under IGD and
FGD in that it allows the Group to take account of its geographic spread and its
ability to diversify its risks across its businesses.
Prudential's economic capital model, which it has been developing over the past
three years, is integral to its capital and financial management at both Group
and business unit level. It provides Prudential with a measure of the impact of
taking on different risks in different parts of the world, both in terms of the
extreme events that have the potential to deplete its capital base, and the more
day-to-day volatility to which it is exposed.
As at 31 December 2004, Prudential had available capital of £3.4bn. This
represents a surplus of £1.6bn over required economic capital of £1.8bn.
Further details on each of these developments can be found in the attached
appendices:
Appendix A European Embedded Value Page 4
Appendix B International Financial Reporting Standards Page 14
Appendix C Groups Directive Page 42
Appendix D Economic Capital Page 44
-ENDS-
Enquiries to:
Rebecca Burrows, Group Communications Director 020 7548 3537
Media Investors/
Analysts
Clare Staley 020 7548 3719 Andrew Crossley 020 7548 3166
Joanne Davidson 020 7548 3708 James Matthews 020 7548 2007
Mike Kempster 020 7548 3738
Brunswick Group
Kate Holgate 020 7404 5959
1. •A presentation to analysts and investors will take place at 9:30am at
Governor's House, Laurence Pountney Hill, London, EC4R 0HH. A webcast of the
presentation and the presentation slides will be available on the Group's
website, www.prudential.co.uk.
2. •An interview with Philip Broadley (in video/audio/text) will be available
on www.cantos.com and www.prudential.co.uk from 7.00am on 2 June 2005.
Prudential plc, a company incorporated and with its principal place of business
in the United Kingdom, and its affiliated companies constitute one of the
world's leading financial services groups. It provides insurance and financial
services directly and through its subsidiaries and affiliates throughout the
world. It has been in existence for over 150 years and has £187bn in assets
under management, as at 31 December 2004. Prudential plc is not affiliated in
any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc, a company whose principal place of
business is in the United States of America.
Forward-Looking Statements
This statement may contain certain 'forward-looking statements' with respect to
certain of Prudential's plans and its current goals and expectations relating to
its future financial condition, performance, results, strategy and objectives.
Statements containing the words 'believes', 'intends', 'expects', 'plans',
'seeks' and 'anticipates', and words of similar meaning, are forward-looking. By
their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty
because they relate to future events and circumstances which are beyond
Prudential's control including among other things, UK domestic and global
economic and business conditions, market related risks such as fluctuations in
interest rates and exchange rates, and the performance of financial markets
generally; the policies and actions of regulatory authorities, the impact of
competition, inflation, and deflation; experience in particular with regard to
mortality and morbidity trends, lapse rates and policy renewal rates; the
timing, impact and other uncertainties of future acquisitions or combinations
within relevant industries; and the impact of changes in capital, solvency or
accounting standards, and tax and other legislation and regulations in the
jurisdictions in which Prudential and its affiliates operate. This may for
example result in changes to assumptions used for determining results of
operations or re-estimations of reserves for future policy benefits. As a
result, Prudential's actual future financial condition, performance and results
may differ materially from the plans, goals, and expectations set forth in
Prudential's forward-looking statements. Prudential undertakes no obligation to
update the forward-looking statements contained in this statement or any other
forward-looking statements it may make.
Appendix A
European Embedded Value (EEV) Principles
•Prudential releases today restated 2004 supplementary results on an EEV
basis. Key results are shown ahead of full adoption of the EEV principles at
the 2005 year end. Highlights of the results on an EEV basis are shown
below.
EEV basis AP basis
2004 2004
£m £m
-------------------------- --------- ---------
New Business Profits 741 688
New Business Margin (1) 40% 37%
Long-term Business Operating Profit Before Tax (2) 1,238 1,148
Total EEV Shareholder Funds (3) 8,481 8,596
-------------------------- --------- ---------
(1) Profits are expressed as a percentage of annual premium equivalent (APE) of
insurance sales.
(2) Excluding increase of £101m arising from the discretionary change of
accounting policy for longer term returns as
explained in the IFRS section.
(3) Excluding increase of £166m brought about by changes described in the IFRS
section.
•The adoption of the EEV principles results in a small change to the
embedded value of the Group's business and an uplift in the value of new
business.
•The Group's underlying capital strength, cashflow, and dividend paying
ability are unaffected by the adoption of the EEV principles.
•The time value of options and guarantees granted to policyholders
included within the Group's embedded value as at 31 December 2004 is £209m.
Prudential believes that EEV reporting represents an evolution from the current
achieved profits (AP) basis used for supplementary reporting, and it welcomes
the improved clarity of information that it will provide to investors by the
adopting companies. Prudential re-iterates its view that embedded value
information provides investors with a much truer picture of the underlying
profitability of long-term insurance business.
1. •Background
In May 2004, the CFO Forum, representing the Chief Financial Officers of 19
European Insurers, published the EEV Principles which are designed to
improve the transparency and consistency of embedded value reporting. Member
companies agreed to adopt the principles for supplementary reporting no
later than the 2005 year-end. Prudential continues to play an active role in
the CFO Forum.
To enable analysts and investors to understand Prudential's approach and the
impact to the results Prudential has decided to provide today a restatement
of key 2004 achieved profits results under the EEV principles. However, 2005
interim results will continue to be reported on an achieved profits basis.
Full disclosures in respect of the 2004 year end will be provided in
December 2005 before Prudential fully adopts the principles in respect of
full year 2005 results.
2. •Key Results
1. •Overview
The 2004 results under the EEV basis are shown below together with
previously reported achieved profits results.
EEV basis AP basis
£m £m
-------------------------- ----------- -----------
New business Profits 741 688
New business Margin (1) 40% 37%
Long-term Business Operating Profit 1,238 1,148
Before Tax (2)
Total EEV Shareholder Funds (3) 8,481 8,596
-------------------------- ----------- -----------
(1) Profits are expressed as a percentage of annual premium equivalent
(APE) of insurance sales.
(2) Excluding increase of £101m arising from the discretionary change of
accounting policy for longer term returns as
explained in the IFRS section.
(3) Excluding increase of £166m brought about by changes described in
the IFRS section.
The main drivers of change from an achieved profits basis are changed
capitalisation levels, an explicit valuation of the time value of
options and guarantees, and changed risk discount rates. The EEV results
also include the value of future profits on service companies (including
fund management operations) that support the Group's long-term
businesses and the UK defined benefit pension scheme deficit. Core debt
has been marked to market.
For EEV reporting, encumbered capital has been set at economic levels, a
bottom up approach has been used for the setting of risk discount rates
which are both product-specific and geographically specific, whilst the
time value of options and guarantees is explicitly valued using
stochastic techniques. Finally, the value of future service company
profits has been included within the in-force value of long-term
business. The value of the UK defined benefit pension scheme deficit has
been included on an IAS 19 basis.
2. •New Business Results
2.2.1. Operating Profit from New Business
EEV Basis AP Basis
Before tax Before tax
£m £m
---------------------- ------------- -------------
UK and Europe Insurance Operations 241 220
Jackson National Life 145 156
Asian Operations 355 312
Total 741 688
---------------------- ------------- -------------
The table below reconciles the movement from an achieved profits basis
to an EEV basis.
£m
------------------------------------- -------
Achieved Profits Basis 688
Economic Assumption Changes (3)
Time Value of Options and Guarantees (30)
Risk Discount Rates 91
JNL Variable Annuity Fees and Benefits 24
Inclusion of Fund Management Profits in respect of 17
Internal Funds
Modelling changes and other (18)
EEV Basis before change to JNL Tax Gross Up Approach 769
Change in JNL Gross Up Approach (28)
EEV Basis 741
------------------------------------- -------
Total Group new business profits have risen 8 per cent. The overall
combined impact of the changed risk discount rates and explicit
valuation of options is positive at £61m and this reflects the high
proportion of bond-backed linked, non-profit and A&H (1) business, which
have lower risk discount rates and minimal options and guarantees. There
is no impact from using economic levels of capital as, for the current
mix of business, statutory requirements are sufficient to meet our
current assessment of economic capital requirements. The current mix of
new business has relatively little in the way of options and guarantees.
(1) A&H is Accident and Health
For Jackson National Life (JNL), as part of the transition to EEV, we
have taken the opportunity to simplify the basis on which we calculate
the pre-tax results. Under EEV, the net profits are grossed up for tax
at the expected tax rate. There is no economic impact from this
presentational change. By way of comparison, under the previous method
that applied under achieved profits, JNL's pre-tax new business profit
would have been (around) £173m.
Inclusion of Fund Management profits adds £17m to the new business
value.
The reconciliation in movement for each of the Group's Business Units is
shown in Appendix A1.
2.2.2. New Business Margin
EEV basis AP Basis
----------- ----------
% of % of % of % of
APE PVNBP APE PVNBP
-------------------- -------- -------- -------- --------
UK and Europe Insurance 30 3.4 27 n/a
Operations
Jackson National Life 32 3.2 34 n/a
Asian Operations 62 10.4 54 n/a
Total 40 5.0 37 n/a
-------------------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Note
PVBNBP is defined as the present value of new business premiums.
The comments in section 2.2.1 apply here also.
3. •Total Shareholders' Funds
EEV Basis AP Basis
After tax After tax
£m £m
---------------------- ------------- -------------
UK and Europe Insurance 4,228 4,051
Operations
Jackson National Life 2,538 2,532
Asian Operations 1,567 1,672
Other 148 341
Total (1) 8,481 8,596
---------------------- ------------- -------------
(1) Excluding a change of £166m brought about by changes described in
the IFRS section.
The reconciliation from an achieved profits basis to an EEV basis is
shown below.
£m
------------------------------------- ------
Achieved Profits Basis 8,596
Economic Assumption Changes 32
Use of Economic Capital (269)
Time Value of Options and Guarantees (209)
Risk Discount Rates 427
JNL VA fees and benefits 26
Inclusion of Fund Management Profits in respect of 200
Internal Funds
Inclusion of Service Company Profits in respect of (7)
Covered Business
Mark to Market Core Debt (193)
Modelling changes and other (122)
EEV Basis 8,481
------------------------------------- ------
The combined impact of increased encumbered capital, explicit valuation
of options and guarantees, and the changed risk discount rates is
broadly neutral, at £(51)m (less than 1 per cent of shareholders'
funds). Inclusion of future profits on fund management businesses in
respect of internal funds adds £200m to the embedded value, whilst the
explicit modelling of Variable Annuity (VA) fees and benefits in the US
adds £26m to the embedded value. There is no impact from the changed
gross-up approach for JNL described in section 2.2.1. as shareholders'
funds are net of tax.
To reflect the leverage of shareholder cashflows, the Group's core debt
has been marked to market. This results in a reduction in shareholders'
funds of £193m.
The time value of options and guarantees included in total shareholders'
funds breaks down geographically as follows.
Time Value of
Options and
Guarantees
£m
----------------------- ------------------------
UK and Europe Insurance Operations 84
Jackson National Life 101
Asian Operations 24
Total 209
----------------------- ------------------------
Prudential's exposure to the time value of options and guarantees based
on the approach required by the EEV principles is relatively small at
£209m or 2.5 per cent of the total Group shareholders' funds of £8.5bn.
This is a direct result of Prudential's risk-based approach to
management. By ensuring that the guarantees offered on our products are
kept prudently low and by actively taking advantage of the management
actions open to us we are able to minimise our shareholder exposures.
The UK and Asia numbers of £84m and £24m reflect the fact that the
majority of the guarantees are contained within with-profits products
which are supported by healthy estates, and that we have increased
encumbered capital to our target economic capital levels. JNL's number
is also low due to the explicit charges on VA products used to meet the
cost of any guarantees and the ability to change crediting rates in line
with credit experience on fixed annuity business.
4. •Operating Profits
EEV Basis AP Basis
Before tax Before tax
£m £m
----------------------------- --------- -----------
In-force long-term Business Operating 497 460
Profits
Total long-term Business Operating 1,238 1,148
Profits
Total Group Operating Profits from 1,212 1,144
Continuing Operations
----------------------------- --------- -----------
The main reasons behind the change in the in-force long-term business
operating profits are increased unwind amounts, contribution from fund
management businesses and in Asia additional expected interest income on
economic capital notionally allocated to Asia (1) and the contribution from
fund management business.
(1) This results in an equal and opposite impact to interest income on
central shareholder funds
The impact of the discretionary changes in accounting policy for longer term
returns as described in the IFRS section is to increase the total long-term
business result by £101m whilst total operating profit for the Group
increases from £1,212m to £1,307m. Appendix A2 provides further detail.
3. •Basis of Preparation
1. •Overall Approach
The results presented in section 2 have been prepared using the EEV Principles
for the Group's long-term business including fund management operations and
service companies that support the long-term businesses. The results of the
Group's other businesses have been incorporated on a modified statutory basis.
In adopting the principles there has been no change in the definition of
long-term new business.
The shareholders' interest in the Group's long-term business comprises,
•the present value of future shareholder cash flows from in-force covered
business (value of in-force business), less a deduction for the cost of
locked-in ('encumbered') capital;
•the locked-in ('encumbered') capital; and
•shareholders' net worth in excess of encumbered capital.
A full stochastic valuation has been undertaken to determine the value of the
in-force business including the cost of capital. A deterministic valuation of
the in-force business is also derived using consistent assumptions and the time
value of the financial options and guarantees is derived as the difference
between the two. The main changes Prudential has made in moving to an EEV basis
of reporting are in the following areas.
•encumbered capital;
•valuation of financial options and guarantees;
•risk discount rates; and
•valuation of fund management companies that support the Group's long-term
businesses
In most other respects the approach that Prudential uses for its achieved
profits reporting already conforms to the requirements of the EEV Principles so
there has been no change in respect of these areas.
Further detail on Prudential's approach is given below.
3.2. Capital
In adopting the EEV principles, Prudential has decided to set encumbered capital
at its internal targets for economic capital, which have been assessed using
internal models but without any credit for the significant geographical
diversification benefits that exist within the Prudential Group. For
with-profits business written into a segregated life fund, both in the UK and
Asia, the capital available within the fund is sufficient to meet the economic
capital requirements. For all shareholder-backed business we lock-in the higher
of economic capital and the local statutory minimum requirement. In the UK,
economic capital requirements for annuity business are fully met by Pillar I
requirements being 4% of mathematical reserves (as used for achieved profits
reporting), which are also sufficient to meet Pillar II requirements as
determined in the Individual Capital Assessment (ICA) submitted to the Financial
Services Authority (FSA). In the US, the level of capital that has previously
been locked in for achieved profits reporting, namely 235 per cent of the NAIC's
(1) Company Action Level (CAL), is sufficient to meet the economic capital
requirement. In Asia, our economic capital target is substantially higher than
local statutory requirements in total. Economic capital requirements vary by
territory, but in aggregate, the capital requirement is equivalent to the
Financial Groups Directive (FGD) requirement.
(1) NAIC is the National Association of Insurance Commissioners
(2) This is equivalent to 470% of the Authorised Control Level (ACL)
The table below summarises the levels of encumbered capital for key
shareholder-backed business.
Capital as a
percentage of
Relevant
Statutory
Requirement
-------------------- ---------------------------------
UK Annuity Business 100% of EU minimum
Jackson National Life 235% of CAL
Asian Operations 100% of FGD
-------------------- ---------------------------------
3.3. Valuation of Options and Guarantees
Options and guarantees have two components of value, intrinsic value and time
value. The intrinsic value measures the value of the options and guarantees on
the chosen valuation assumptions (i.e. the extent to which they are 'in the
money'). The time value measures the additional value of the options and
guarantees that arises from changing future financial conditions.
The intrinsic value of options and guarantees is directly included in the
embedded value calculated using deterministic assumptions while the time value
is captured through the use of stochastic techniques for the embedded value
calculation that involve the projection of distributable profits under many
(1,000 to 5,000) scenarios in which economic and financial factors are allowed
to vary in a manner that is representative of possible future market behaviour.
The time value is then determined by taking the difference between the average
present value of distributable profits under all these scenarios and the
deterministic embedded value referred to above. As required by the EEV
principles, the option valuation is a real world one and not a market consistent
value and uses investment return and risk discount rate assumptions which are
consistent with the main deterministic models.
3.4. Risk Discount Rates
Principle G10.7 to G10.9 of the European Embedded Value Principles state that,
'Discount rates used to determine the present value of future cash flows should
be set equal to risk free rates plus a risk margin. The risk margin should
reflect any risk associated with the emergence of distributable earnings that is
not allowed for elsewhere in the valuation.
Valuation of financing types of reinsurance and debt, including subordinated and
contingent debt, should ensure that the combined impact of their servicing costs
and discount rates assumption does not distort the valuation of the underlying
business.
Risk discount rates may vary between product groups and territories.'
Prudential has adopted a bottom-up approach to the calculation of risk discount
rates as we believe the intention of the EEV principles in this area is that
they should relate to the risks within each product. Having considered the
various options, Prudential firmly believes that a bottom-up approach is the
best way to achieve this. The risk discount rate so derived does not reflect a
market cost of capital but the risk of volatility associated with the casflows
in the embedded value model. Risk discount rates vary by major product group in
each territory and are derived using the formula,
risk discount rate = risk free rate + ( product specific beta x equity risk
premium ) + additional margin of 50 bps
The risk discount rates reflect the market risk inherent in each product group
and hence the volatility of product cashflows. They are determined by
considering how the profits from each product are impacted by changes in
expected returns on various asset classes, and by converting this into a
relative rate of return it is possible to derive a product specific beta. A
further additional prudential margin of 50bps has been added to all risk
discount rates. In setting risk discount rates any material financial options
and guarantees that have been explicitly valued are excluded from the
calculation whilst capital levels are consistent with the economic capital
levels described in section 3.2 above. Asset backing reflects the actual assets
held at the valuation date and projection assumptions used are the same as those
described in section 3.5 and 3.6. An example of the calculation may be found at
the Group's website (www.prudential.co.uk).
For Prudential's UK annuity business, which is well matched, the predominant
financial risks are credit risk and interest rate risk. For this line of
business the existing achieved profits embedded values and risk discount rates
have been carried over following validation by comparison to a market consistent
valuation.
Weighted average risk discount rates are given below for each business unit
Business New Business Achieved
in-force Profits
---------------------- ------------ ----------- -----------
UK and Europe Insurance 7.1% 7.1% 7.2%
Operations
Jackson National Life 5.8% 6.1% 7.4%
Asian Operations 7.9% 8.0% 9.6%
Group 7.2% 7.3% 7.8%
---------------------- ------------ ----------- -----------
The in-force risk discount rate has been weighted using the value of in-force
whilst the new business risk discount rate has been weighted by new business
profits. It should be noted that these are just weighted summaries of the risk
discount rates and are shown to give an indication of how they compare to
achieved profits risk discount rates. The rates actually used are those derived
for each specific product group.
3.5. Economic Assumptions and Stochastic Asset Model
3.5.1. Deterministic Calculations
The principles used to set economic assumptions are set out below.
Economic assumptions vary by territory, with risk free rates based on actual
government bond yields at the date of the valuation in territories with
developed capital markets and on the long-term view of Prudential's economists
for those territories in Asia with less developed capital markets. Expected
returns on equity and property asset classes are derived by adding a risk
premium, also based on the long-term view of Prudential's economists in respect
of each territory, to the risk free rate. In the UK the equity risk premium is
3.0 per cent above risk free rates which compares to 2.5 per cent previously
used for achieved profits reporting. In order to maintain consistency with EEV
reporting, the interim 2005 achieved profits equity risk premium assumption will
now rise to 3.0 per cent with a corresponding increase in the AP risk discount
rate. The equity risk premium in the US is also 3.0 per cent, unchanged from
achieved profits reporting. In Asia, equity risk premiums range from 2.8 per
cent to 5.3 per cent. Assumptions for other asset classes, such as corporate
bond spreads, are set consistently as best estimate assumptions.
The investment return assumptions as derived above are applied to the actual
assets held at the valuation date to derive the overall fund-earned rate.
The table below summarises the principal financial assumptions.
EEV Basis AP Basis
---------------------------------- ---------- ----------
UK and Europe Insurance Operations
Pre-tax expected long-term nominal
rates of investment return:
UK equities 7.6% 7.1%
Overseas equities 7.3% to 8.3% 6.8% to 7.8%
Property 6.3% 6.3%
Gilts 4.6% 4.6%
Corporate bonds 5.5% 5.5%
Expected long-term rate of inflation 2.9% 2.9%
Post-tax expected long-term nominal
rate of return:
Pension business (where no tax 6.8% 6.5%
applies)
Life business 5.9% 5.7%
US Operations (Jackson National Life)
Expected long-term spread between
earned rate and rate credited to
policyholders for single premium 1.75% 1.75%
deferred annuity business
US 10 year treasury bond rate at 31 4.3% 4.3%
December 2004
US Equities 7.3% 7.3%
Asian Operations
Inflation 0.0% to 7.8% 0.0% to 7.8%
Government Bond Yield 1.9% to 13.0% 1.8% to 13.0%
Equity 4.9% to 15.8% 4.9% to 15.8%
---------------------------------- ---------- ----------
3.5.2. Stochastic Calculations
The economic assumptions used for the stochastic calculations are consistent
with those used for the deterministic calculations described in section 3.5.1.
Assumptions specific to the stochastic calculations such as equity volatility
and credit losses reflect local market conditions and are based on a combination
of actual market data, historic market data and the long-term views of
Prudential's economists. Common principles have been adopted across the Group
for the stochastic asset models, for example, separate modelling of individual
asset classes but with allowance for correlation between the various asset
classes.
Details are given below of the key characteristics of each model.
UK and Europe Insurance Operations
•Interest rates are projected using a two-factor model calibrated to
actual market data.
•The risk premium on equity assets is assumed to follow a lognormal
distribution.
•The corporate bond return is calculated as the return on a zero-coupon
bond plus a spread. The spread process is a mean reverting stochastic
process.
•Property returns are modelled in a similar fashion to corporate bonds,
namely as the return on a riskless bond, plus a risk premium, plus a process
representative of the change in residual values and the change in value of
the call option on rents.
The rates to which the model has been calibrated are as follows:
Mean (1) Standard
Deviation (2)
---------------- ---------------- ----------------
Government Bond Yield 4.6% 1.9%
Corporate Bond Yield 5.5% 5.8%
Equities 7.6% 20.0%
Property 6.3% 15.0%
---------------- ---------------- ----------------
(1) Means have been derived as the annualised arithmetic average return across
all simulations and durations
(2) Standard deviations have been calculated by taking the variance of the
annualised average return in each year across all simulations, taking the square
root and averaging overall durations. For interest rates the standard deviation
relates to the change in yield.
Jackson National Life
•Interest rates are projected using a three-factor model calibrated to
actual market data.
•Corporate bond returns are based on Treasury securities plus a spread
that has been calibrated to current market conditions and varies by credit
quality.
•Variable Annuity equity and bond returns have been stochastically
generated using a regime-switching lognormal model with parameters
determined by reference to historical data. The volatility of equity fund
returns ranges from 17.5 per cent to 28.0 per cent depending on risk class,
and the volatility of bond funds ranges from 1.6 per cent to 4.7 per cent.
Asian Operations
The same asset return model, appropriately calibrated, as used in the UK has
been used for the Asian operations. The principal asset classes are government
and corporate bonds. Equity holdings are much lower than in the UK whilst
property is not held as an investment asset.
Mean Standard
Deviation
---------------- ---------------- ----------------
Government Bond Yield (3) 1.9% to 13.0% 0.7% to 3.7%
Equity Risk Premiums 2.8% to 5.3% 22.0% to 25.0%
---------------- ---------------- ----------------
(3) Long Government bond yield (10 year duration)
Management Actions
In deriving the in-force value various management actions in response to
emerging investment and fund solvency conditions have been modelled. Management
actions encompass, but are not confined to, the following areas.
•Levels of reversionary bonuses and credited rates
•Total claim values
•Investment allocation decisions
In all instances the modelled actions are in accordance with approved local
practice and therefore reflect the options actually available to management. In
the UK, the actions assumed were the same as those adopted for the realistic
balance sheet (Pillar I, Peak 2) included in the regulatory return.
3.6. Non-Economic Assumptions
Demographic Assumptions
Mortality and morbidity assumptions are based on an analysis of recent
experience and reflect expected future experience. Where relevant, when
calculating the time value of in-force business, policyholder withdrawal rates
are allowed to vary in line in line with the emerging investment conditions
according to management's expectations ('dynamic lapses').
Expense Assumptions
Expense levels, including those of service companies that support the company's
long-term business operations, are based on internal expense analysis
investigations and are appropriately allocated to acquisition of new business
and renewal of in-force business. Exceptional expenses are identified separately
and reported separately. No productivity gains have been assumed.
With Profits Business and Treatment of Estate
Where participating business is written into segregated life funds, the time
value of options and guarantees reflects established profit participation rules.
Projected bonus rates are consistent with the projected investment return and
include the impact of management action taken in response to emerging investment
conditions.
In the UK, which has the largest life fund of the Group, shareholders' interest
in the estate is derived by increasing terminal bonus rates so as to exhaust the
estate over the lifetime of the in-force with-profits business. In those few
extreme scenarios where the total assets of the life fund are insufficient to
meet policyholder claims in full, the excess cost is fully attributed to
shareholders.
In other territories with participating business, any required shareholder
injections required to meet contractual and other payments required by local
practice are also included in the time value of options and guarantees. The
shareholder's share in any positive residual estate has been determined as the
present value of 10 per cent of that amount as at the end of the projection. Any
deficits are fully attributed to shareholders.
Taxation and Other Legislation
Current taxation and other legislation has been assumed to continue unaltered
except where changes have been announced and the relevant legislation passed.
Fund Management and Service Companies
The value of future profits or losses from fund management and service companies
that support the Group's long-term businesses are included in the in-force value
of the Group's long-term business. However, the statutory profits actually
emerging continue to be shown together with profits from external fund
management business. The excess or shortfall of EEV profits over actual
statutory profits is included within the long-term business non-operating
result.
The assumptions used to value these businesses are consistent with those used to
value the underlying long-term business. The value ascribed to the Group's fund
management businesses is shown as follows.
Value of Fund
Management
Business
£m
----------------------- -----------------------
UK and Europe 123
Jackson National Life 20
Asia 57
Total 200
----------------------- -----------------------
The value of future profits from service companies is negligible at £(7)m .
Appendix A1: Reconciliation of Movement for New Business Profits
UK and Europe Insurance Operations
£m
---------------------------------- ---------
Achieved Profits Basis 220
Economic Assumptions 10
Time Value of Options and Guarantees (5)
Risk Discount Rates 6
Fund Management 10
EEV Basis 241
---------------------------------- ---------
JNL
£m
---------------------------------- ---------
Achieved Profits Basis 156
Economic Assumptions (8)
Time Value of Options and Guarantees (29)
Risk Discount Rates 30
JNL VA Fees and Benefits 24
Fund Management 4
Other (4)
EEV Basis before change to JNL Tax Gross Up Approach 173
Change to JNL Gross Up Approach (28)
EEV Basis 145
---------------------------------- ---------
Asian Operations
£m
---------------------------------- ---------
Achieved Profits Basis 312
Economic Assumptions (5)
Time Value of Options and Guarantees 0
Risk Discount Rates 55
Fund Management 3
Other (10)
EEV Basis 355
---------------------------------- ---------
Appendix A2: Total Operating Profit Before Tax and Impact of IFRS
AP Basis EEV Basis Impact of IFRS
£m £m £m
---------------------------- -------- -------- -----------
New Business Profits 688 741 741
In-force 460 497 598
Total Long-Term 1,148 1,238 1,339
Fund Management
- M&G 136 136 136
- US Broker Dealer, Curian and (14) (14) (14)
Fund Management
- Asia Fund Management 19 19 19
Asia Development Costs (15) (15) (15)
Egg 63 63 61
Other (193) (215) (219)
Total Profit Before Tax from 1,144 1,212 1,307
Continuing Operations
---------------------------- -------- -------- -----------
Note
The IFRS changes include the impact of associated discretionary changes.
APPENDIX B
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTING STANDARDS ('IFRS')
•Prudential has today released selected financial information of restated
2004 results following the adoption of International Financial Reporting
Standards.
•The adoption of IFRS has little impact on reported operating results
(based on longer-term returns).
•Proforma IFRS basis operating results before shareholder tax of £608m for
the year ended 31 December 2004 compare with operating results previously
published under UK GAAP of £623m.
•The adoption of IFRS gives rise to changed valuation bases of derivatives
and fixed income securities of Jackson National Life ('JNL'). These changes
are likely to give rise to increased volatility in total profits and
shareholders' equity.
•Notwithstanding this increased volatility, the Company is of the view
that the IFRS changes are not significant to an understanding of the Group's
financial position.
•In addition to the IFRS basis changes Prudential has chosen to make a
discretionary change to the basis of determining investment returns included
in operating profits for fixed income securities. This change is so as to
reflect longer-term returns rather than 5 year averaged credit experience.
After making this change, proforma IFRS basis operating profits for
continuing operations for 2004 are £699m. Total IFRS profit before
shareholder tax for continuing operations (including actual investment
returns) of £985m is unaffected by this change.
•The 2004 Achieved Profits basis ('AP basis') results have also been
restated for the relevant IFRS changes as described elsewhere in this
announcement.
1. Background
The European Union ('EU') requires that all listed European Groups prepare their
2005 financial statements in accordance with EU approved IFRS. The IFRS basis of
reporting replaces UK GAAP.
The IFRS changes of themselves are not significant to an understanding of the
Group's financial position.
The Financial Review section of Prudential's 2004 Annual Report gave extensive
explanation of the likely changes, which are confirmed in this announcement. The
principal effect of the IFRS changes is that the reported impact of JNL's
hedging strategy and the financial position of the Group's UK defined benefit
pension schemes are brought more into focus.
2. Key Results
Detailed notes on the basis of preparation and main features of the changes
follow in sections 3 and 4 of this announcement. Also included with this
announcement are schedules of selected financial information (Schedules B1 to
B6) which provide summary details of the IFRS and restated AP basis results.
The changed basis of reporting also includes a discretionary change to the
presentation of investment returns for the Group's shareholder backed
non-participating business that is unrelated to IFRS. The IFRS changes and the
discretionary change give rise to the following summary impact on full year 2004
IFRS and AP basis results and shareholders' funds at 1 January 2005.
IFRS Basis Results Discretionary Required
change for change Change
Previously longer-term to to
published*1 investment statutory Statutory proforma Proforma
(UK GAAP) returns IFRS IFRS*2 IFRS IFRS*2
Year ended 31 December £m £m £m £m £m £m
2004
------------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------ -------
Operating profit based on
longer-term investment
returns, before
amortisation of goodwill
and shareholder tax of
continuing operations:
JNL 196 100 0 296 - 296
Other operations 427 (9) (6) 412 (9) 403
---- ---------------------- -------- -------- ------ ------- ------ -------
Total 623 91 (6)*3 708 (9)*3 699
==== ====================== ======== ======== ====== ======= ====== =======
Representing:
------- ------ -------
IFRS basis results 617 (9) 608
before discretionary
change for longer-term
investment returns
Effect of 91 - 91
discretionary change ------- ------ -------
of policy for
longer-term investment
returns
IFRS basis results 708 (9) 699
after discretionary
change for longer-term
investment returns
==== ====================== ======== ======== ====== ======= ====== =======
Total profit, including 758 - 92 850 135 985
actual investment return,
before shareholders' tax of
continuing operations
==== ====================== ======== ======== ====== ======= ====== =======
Shareholders' Equity
(capital and reserves)
•As at 31 4,281 - 209 4,490 261 4,751
December 2004
•Transition
adjustment - - 236 236 (261) (25)
following full
application of IAS
32, IAS 39 and
IFRS 4
•As at 1 January 4,281 - 445 4,726 - 4,726
2005
==== ====================== ======== ======== ====== ======= ====== =======
Achieved Profits ('AP') Basis Results Discretionary
---------------------------------------
change for
longer-term
Previously investment IFRS
published*1 returns change Restated
Year ended 31 December 2004 £m £m £m £m
------------------------------- -------- ---------- ------- -------
Group AP operating profit, based on 1,144 101 (6) 1,239
longer-term investment returns, before
tax of continuing operations
------------------------------- -------- ---------- ------- -------
Total Group AP profit, including actual 1,629 - 85 1,714
investment returns, before tax of
continuing operations
------------------------------- -------- ---------- ------- -------
Group AP Shareholders' Equity
•As at 31 December 2004 8,596 - 166 8,762
•Transition adjustment
following application of IAS39 - (25) (25)
and IFRS4
•As at 1 January 2005
8,596 141 8,737
------------------------------- -------- ---------- ------- -------
*1 Figures shown as 'previously published' relate to continuing operations
and exclude amounts attached to discontinued activities, including Egg's
Funds Direct operations.
*2 See notes a to d of section 3.1 for basis of preparation and context of
references to 'statutory' and 'proforma' bases of presentation.
*3 Total changes arising from IFRS shown above give rise to a reduction of
£15m in operating profit - as referred to in the overview press release.
The statutory IFRS basis financial information included within this announcement
establishes the results attributable to shareholders, on the basis of selected
financial information, to be included in the Group's interim 2005 results and
its first annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2005. Due
to the continuing work of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB)
and possible amendments to the interpretative guidance, the Group's accounting
policies, and consequently the information presented, may change prior to the
publication of the first IFRS results in July 2005 and/or the 2005 full year
results to be published in mid March 2006.
Additional details on the basis of preparation, of the Group's principal
accounting policies, and supplementary results schedules are to be included on 2
June 2005 on the Group's website (www.prudential.co.uk) with the details of this
announcement.
3. IFRS basis results
1. •Summary
Discretionary
change for Required
longer-term change
Previously investment to Statutory Change to Proforma
published*1 returns statutory IFRS*2 proforma IFRS*2
(UK GAAP) (note b) IFRS (note a) IFRS (note a)
Year ended 31 December £m £m £m £m £m £m
2004
-------------------- -------- -------- ------ ------ ------- -------
Operating profit based
on longer-term
investment returns,
before amortisation
of goodwill and
shareholder tax of
continuing
operations (note c)
JNL 196 100 0 296 0 296
Other operations 427 (9) (6) 412 (9) 403
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------ ------- -------
Total - see 623 91 (6) 708 (9) 699
section 3.2
==== ================== ======== ======== ====== ====== ======= =======
Representing:
------ ------- -------
IFRS basis results 617 (9) 608
before
discretionary
change for
longer-term
investment
returns
Effect of 91 - 91
discretionary ------ ------- -------
change of policy
for longer-term
investment returns
(note b)
IFRS basis results 708 (9) 699
after
discretionary
change for
longer-term
investment
returns
==== ================== ======== ======== ====== ====== ======= =======
Total profit, including 758 - 92 850 135 985
actual investment
return, before
shareholders' tax of
continuing operations
(note c) - see section
3.3
==== ================== ======== ======== ====== ====== ======= =======
Shareholders' Equity
(capital and reserves)
- See section 3.4
•As at 31
December 4,281 - 209 4,490 261 4,751
2004
•Transition
Adjustment - - 236 236 (261) (25)
following full
application of
IAS 39 and
IFRS 4
•As at 1
January 2005 4,281 - 445 4,726 - 4,726
==== ================== ======== ======== ====== ====== ======= =======
*1 Figures shown as 'previously published' relate to continuing
operations and exclude amounts attached to discontinued activities,
including Egg's Funds Direct operations.
*2 See notes a to d of section 3.1 for basis of preparation and
context of references to 'statutory and proforma bases of
presentation'.
Notes on IFRS basis results
a. •Statutory and Proforma IFRS basis results
The 'statutory IFRS' basis results included in this announcement
reflect the accounting policies adopted by the Group as at 1st
January 2004 but are not presented, and are not intended to be,
in the format required for IFRS financial statements for interim
or full year reporting.
References in the table above and throughout this announcement
to 'Statutory IFRS' reflect the Group's adoption of all IFRS
standards other than IAS 32, IAS 39 and IFRS 4, for the 2004
comparative results to be included in the Group's 2005 statutory
basis financial statements, in so far as they affect the
selected financial information included in this announcement.
For the avoidance of doubt the statutory IFRS results do not
represent the Company's statutory accounts, nor have they been
extracted from statutory IFRS accounts.
In recognition of the difficulties in IFRS for the banking
sector in retrospectively applying IAS32 and IAS39 on financial
instruments, the IASB has permitted application of these
standards from 1st January 2005. This is also permitted for
IFRS4 on insurance contracts. For Prudential, application of
IAS32 and IAS39 for its banking subsidiary, Egg plc, for 2004
would have given rise to results that are not representative of
the approach it intends to apply for hedge accounting from 1st
January 2005. The Group has therefore chosen to utilise the IFRS
1 option to adopt these standards from 1st January 2005.
However, the application of IAS32 and IAS39 for Prudential's
insurance operations, particularly JNL, has a material impact on
IFRS reported results. The importance of providing information
that is indicative of the basis of reporting to be applied for
2005 for these operations is recognised, and the Group has
therefore chosen to present 'Proforma IFRS' basis results for
2004. These results reflect the estimated impact of the
application of those three additional standards, which will be
adopted from 1st January 2005, to the results of the Group's
insurance operations, as though they had been adopted at 1st
January 2004.
The main additional changes included in the proforma information
relate to the valuation of JNL's fixed income securities and
derivatives. The main purpose of the proforma basis information
is to provide users of this financial information with results
on a basis that closely aligns with that to be applied for 2005,
taking account of the Group's chosen approach to application of
IAS 39, particularly for JNL.
Proforma IFRS basis results for 2004 will be included with the
2005 interim and full year results as additional information to
the statutory IFRS basis results to be reported in the Group's
primary statements. For the avoidance of doubt, it is emphasised
that the proforma IFRS results included in this announcement do
not form part of the Group's IFRS basis results for the purpose
of compliance with the relevant accounting requirements on
adoption of IFRS.
(b) Operating profit based on longer-term investment returns
References to operating profit, based on longer-term investment
returns, before shareholders' tax, reflect the continuation of
the Group's approach to providing an analysis of results that
demonstrates underlying performance i.e. excluding short-term
volatility in investment returns. Profits determined on this
basis are provided as an additional analysis of the results to
be included in the Group's income statement and reflect the
long-standing convention previously advocated for UK insurers by
the Statement of Recommended Practice issued by the Association
of British Insurers.
In determining the statutory and proforma IFRS basis operating
results based on longer-term investment returns included in this
announcement, the basis of determining the longer-term
investment returns has been refined. Previously for fixed income
securities of JNL and other non-participating shareholder backed
businesses of the Group, the basis for determining longer-term
returns was estimated by recognising realised gains and losses
on a five-year averaged basis. For future reporting under IFRS
and restated 2004 IFRS basis results this has been replaced with
a combination of an annualised charge for long-term expected
default experience and amortisation of interest related realised
gains and losses to the period when the sold securities would
have otherwise matured.
The change more closely reflects the longer-term nature of the
credit cycle and refines the impact of realisations that are
unrelated to defaults and impairments. Prudential believes that
the presentation of operating profits based on longer-term
investment returns better reflects the Group's underlying
performance.
(c) Basis of presentation of tax charge
References to operating profit and total profit before
shareholder tax reflect the continued presentation as additional
information of tax attributable to with-profits funds and unit
linked policyholders as a charge deducted in the determination
of pre-shareholder tax results. In determining the allocation of
tax charges between those attributable to with-profits funds,
unit-linked policyholders and shareholders, a methodology
consistent with that previously appropriate under UK GAAP
(modified statutory basis) reporting has been applied.
Technically under IFRS, which does not recognise the distinction
between taxes attributable to these different participants,
total formal IFRS pre-tax profit is required to be recorded in
the income statement before deduction of all taxes. In
determining such pre-tax profits, transfers to and from
unallocated surplus of with-profits funds are taken into
account. These transfers are themselves a function of the tax
borne by with-profits funds. The total profit before tax on an
IFRS basis is not representative of profit before taxes
attributable to shareholders.
In order to provide pre-tax results that are relevant from a
shareholder perspective, the Group has elected to provide
additional analysis in its financial statements of the profits
before shareholder tax, but after deduction of policyholder tax.
All results shown in this announcement are presented on this
basis.
(d) Accounting policies
The focus of this announcement is the impact of the changes in
accounting policies as they affect the results before
shareholder tax and as they affect shareholders' funds. The full
set of IFRS policies that will be implemented for the Group's
2005 financial statements will incorporate changes from those
previously applied under UK GAAP. These will include policies
covering the balance sheet changes, incorporating the inclusion
of assets and liabilities such as investments, goodwill and
non-recourse borrowings of investment, property and venture fund
subsidiaries that have hitherto not required consolidation.
These subsidiaries are primarily investments of the Prudential
Assurance Company ('PAC') with-profits fund, US investment fund,
and other special purpose vehicles.
1. •Changes to IFRS operating results, based on longer-term investment
returns, for continuing operations
A summary of the changes to operating profit, based on longer-term
investment returns, before shareholder tax for continuing operations
is as follows:
Discretionary Required
change for change
longer-term to Change to
Previously investment statutory Statutory Proforma Proforma
Published*1 returns IFRS IFRS*2 IFRS IFRS*2
£m £m £m £m £m £m
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
UK and Europe
operations
Insurance 305 0 0 305 (9) 296
operations (note
a)
M&G (note b) 136 0 0 136 N/A 136
Egg (note c) 63 0 (2) 61 N/A 61
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
Total 504 0 (2) 502 (9) 493
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
US operations
JNL (note d) 196 100 0 296 0 296
Broker dealer and (14) 0 0 (14) N/A (14)
fund management
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
Total 182 100 0 282 0 282
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
Asian operations (note e)
Long-term 126 (9) 0 117 0 117
business
Fund Management 19 0 0 19 N/A 19
Development (15) 0 0 (15) N/A (15)
Expenses
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
Total 130 (9) 0 121 0 121
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
Other income and
expenditure
Interest payable (154) 0 0 (154) N/A (154)
on core structural
borrowings
Other (note f) (39) 0 (4) (43) N/A (43)
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
Total (193) 0 (4) (197) 0 (197)
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
Total 623 91 (6) 708 (9) 699
==================== ======== ======== ====== ======= ======= =======
Representing:
------- ------- -------
IFRS basis results 617 (9) 608
before
discretionary
change for
longer-term
investment
returns
Effect of 91 0 91
discretionary ------- ------- -------
change of policy
for longer-term
investment
returns
IFRS basis results 708 (9) 699
after
discretionary
change for
longer-term
investment
returns
==== ================== ======== ======== ====== ======= ======= =======
N/A: not applicable - proforma basis changes are confined to insurance
operations
*1 Figures shown as 'previously published' relate to continuing
operations and exclude amounts attached to discontinued activities,
including Egg's Funds Direct operations.
*2 See notes a to d of section 3.1 for basis of preparation and
context of references to 'statutory and proforma bases of
presentation'.
Notes on changes to operating results, based on longer-term
investment returns, of continuing operations.
(a) UK and Europe Insurance operations
The proforma IFRS basis result of £296m incorporates a £(9)m
change on applying IAS39 and IFRS4 to those unit-linked
contracts that are classified as investment contracts under IFRS
4. Under the changed basis of classification:
# •Sterling reserves are no longer recognised.
# •Acquisition costs that are deferrable are restricted to
incremental costs.
# •Deferrable acquisition costs, front-end charges and actuarial
funding are amortised in line with service provision.
For all other insurance contracts of UK and Europe operations
the basis of measurement of assets and liabilities continues to
be as applied under UK GAAP.
(b) M&G
For M&G, the zero change reflects the application of IAS19 for
the M&G pension scheme (£(1)m) offset by altered measurement of
acquisition costs and front-end charges for external investment
management business (£1m).
(c) Egg
Operating profit, as previously published, shown above of £63m
is shown after adjusting for the losses of £20m attaching to the
now discontinued Funds Direct business.
The statutory IFRS changes to the 2004 comparative results for
Egg reflect only those adjustments arising from IFRS standards
other than from IAS32 and IAS39. £(3)m of the change of £(2)m
arises from the application of IFRS2 to share based payment in
respect of shares in Egg plc.
Consistent with the approach of many other banks, IAS32 and
IAS39 will be applied for the first time as at 1 January 2005.
Prospectively, wholesale assets will be classified as
Available-for-Sale under IAS39 and held at fair value with
unrealised gains and losses reflected directly in equity.
Liabilities will be measured at amortised cost with no effect
compared to UK GAAP, except where set-up fees had been
previously expensed but will, under IFRS, be capitalised and
amortised.
Derivatives will be the only products for which changes in fair
value will affect the total result for the reporting period.
However, for interest rate swaps that economically hedge fixed
rate personal loans, by matching them against the variable rate
savings book, Egg will apply portfolio cash flow hedge
accounting under IAS39. Changes in the fair value of these
hedges will be recorded directly in equity in the balance sheet
and not the income statement.
(d) JNL
The discretionary change to reflect the altered basis of
recognition of longer-term investment return is unrelated to the
requirements of IFRS. The change primarily affects the operating
result of JNL as follows:
Previously published basis: £m
------------------------------------------ --------
Averaged losses on fixed income securities (102)
Statutory and proforma IFRS £m
------------------------------------------ --------
--------
Longer-term default assumption (47)
Amortisation of interest related realised gains and losses 45
------------------------------------------ --------
--------
(2)
============================================ ========
Net Change £m
------------------------------------------ --------
Gross change 110
Change to related amortisation of acquisition costs (10)
------------------------------------------ --------
100
============================================ ========
The change of £100m reflects the replacement of the 5 year
averaging of the exceptional default losses experienced in 2001
and 2002 with a default assumption that reflects longer-term
expectations, based on historical precedent. The longer-term
default provision has been calibrated on a basis consistent with
published rating agency risk margin analyses and is reflective
of the credit quality of individual investments held in the JNL
portfolio.
There are no significant changes to JNL's operating results for
IFRS changes. The accounting basis applied previously to JNL's
contracts aligns very closely to that required under IFRS.
(e) Asian Operations
With the exception of the altered basis of determining
longer-term returns, there is no change to operating profit for
Asian operations. Virtually all insurance contracts of the
Group's Asian Operations continue to be accounted for under UK
GAAP as they are technically classified as insurance rather than
investment contracts under IFRS4.
(f) Other income and expenditure
The change of £(4)m comprises:
£m
------------------------------------------- ---------
Shareholders' share of pension costs not allocated to business (3)
operations
In respect of share based payments (1)
------------------------------------------- ---------
(4)
------------------------------------------- ---------
1. •Changes to total IFRS profit before shareholder tax
A summary of changes to total profit before shareholder tax, including
actual investment returns, of continuing operations is as follows:
Discretionary Required
change for change
Previously longer-term to Change to
published*1 investment statutory Statutory Proforma Proforma
(UK GAAP) returns IFRS IFRS*2 IFRS IFRS*2
£m £m £m £m £m £m
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
Operating profit, based 623 91 (6) 708 (9) 699
on longer-term
investment returns,
before shareholder
tax
Representing:
------- ------- -------
IFRS basis results 617 (9) 608
before
discretionary
change for
longer-term
investment
returns
Effect of 91 - 91
discretionary ------- ------- -------
change of policy
for longer-term
investment
returns
IFRS basis results 708 (9) 699
after
discretionary
change for
longer-term
investment
returns
Amortisation of (94) - 94 - - -
goodwill (note a)
Short-term fluctuations 229 (91) 11 149 144 293
in investment returns
(note b)
Shareholders' share of - - (7) (7) - (7)
actuarial gains and
losses on defined
benefit pension schemes
(note c)
---- ------------------ -------- -------- ------ ------- ------- -------
Total profit including 758 - 92 850 135 985
actual investment
returns, before
shareholder tax of
continuing operations
==================== ======== ======== ====== ======= ======= =======
*1 Figures shown as 'previously published' relate to continuing
operations and exclude amounts attached to discontinued activities,
including Egg's Funds Direct operations
*2 See notes a to d of section 3.1 for basis of preparation and context
of references to 'statutory and proforma bases of presentation'.
Notes on changes to total profit before shareholder tax of continuing
operations
(a) Amortisation of goodwill
Subject to annual impairment testing, goodwill is not amortised under
IFRS.
(b) Short-term fluctuations in investment returns
The discretionary change of £(91)m reflects the revised basis of
determining longer-term returns, as discussed in section 3.1 (note b).
The £11m change to statutory IFRS principally reflects the share of
profits of property and venture fund investment subsidiaries, held by
the PAC with-profits fund, that are attributable to minority interests.
The £144m change to proforma IFRS arises from the market valuation of
derivatives used for economic hedging purposes by JNL. Previously, under
UK GAAP, the fixed income securities of JNL were, unless impaired,
accounted for at amortised cost with derivatives similarly treated. In
applying IFRS the Group will account for JNL's fixed income securities
on an 'Available-for-Sale' basis whereby the fixed income securities are
accounted for at fair value with unrealised gains and losses being
recorded directly in equity rather than the income statement. In this
respect the treatment is as applied by many US insurers under US GAAP.
Value movements for JNL's derivatives will, however, be booked in the
income statement under IFRS from 1 January 2005 when the Group adopts
IAS 32 and IAS 39.
The Group will not generally seek to hedge account for JNL's derivatives
under IAS 39 i.e. it will not attempt to match up value movements on
hedged assets, with the value movements in the derivatives, in the
income statement.
(c) Shareholders' share of actuarial gains and losses on defined benefit
pension schemes
The actuarial gains and losses comprise the effect of short-term
fluctuations in investment returns on scheme assets, and the effect of
changes in actuarial assumptions, after deduction of the proportion
absorbed by the PAC with-profits fund. Due to IFRS requirements, as they
apply to the share of actuarial gains and losses absorbed by
with-profits funds, the Group's policy is to record all actuarial gains
and losses in the income statement.
2. •Changes to IFRS shareholders' equity (capital and reserves)
A summary of changes to shareholders' equity at 31 December 2004 is
as follows:
£m
----------------------------------------------- --------
Previously published under UK GAAP 4,281
Changes to statutory IFRS
--------
•Timing difference on recognition of accrued final
dividend (note a) 253
•Shareholders' share of deficits (net of tax) of UK
defined benefit pension schemes (note b) (115)
•Goodwill (note c)
94
•Other items (note d)
(23)
--------
209
----------------------------------------------- --------
Statutory IFRS basis shareholders' funds at 31 December 2004* 4,490
Changes to Proforma IFRS i.e. applying IAS 39 and IFRS 4 on
basis consistent with that to be applied prospectively for
insurance operations
•Valuation changes to fixed income securities and --------
derivatives (net of related changes to 273
deferred acquisition costs and deferred tax) of US
operations (note e)
•UK and Europe insurance operations (12)
--------
261
----------------------------------------------- --------
Proforma IFRS basis at 31 December 2004* 4,751
=============================================== ========
* See notes a to d of section 3.1 for basis of preparation and
context of references to 'statutory and proforma bases of
presentation'.
On formal adoption of IAS32, IAS39 and IFRS4 at 1 January 2005 for
the Group's insurance and other operations, the Group's IFRS basis
results will incorporate a transitional adjustment to shareholders'
equity. The changes are as follows:
Previously Statutory Proforma
published IFRS* IFRS*
£m £m £m
--- -------------------------------- -------- -------- -------
Shareholders' equity at 31 December 4,281 4,490 4,751
2004
Transition adjustments
Insurance operations N/A 261 N/A
--- -------------------------------- -------- -------- -------
N/A 4,751 4,751
Banking and other non-insurance N/A (25) (25)
operations
--- -------------------------------- -------- -------- -------
Shareholders' equity at 1 January 4,281 4,726 4,726
2005
=== ================================ ======== ======== =======
* See notes a to d of section 3.1 for basis of preparation and
context of references to 'statutory and proforma bases of
presentation'.
Notes on changes to shareholders' equity (capital and reserves)
(a) Timing difference on recognition of accrued final dividend
Under IFRS dividends declared after the balance sheet date of
the reporting period are recognised for accounting purposes in
the period of declaration.
(b) Shareholders' share of deficits (net of tax) of UK defined
benefit pensions schemes
Under IAS 19 provision for pension scheme deficits is required
on a basis similar to that previously shown in the 2004 Annual
Report as memorandum disclosure under FRS 17. The deficits of
the schemes reflect the difference between the market value of
the assets of the schemes and projected liabilities for future
cash flows discounted at an AA graded corporate bond rate. The
total deficits have been apportioned, on a basis that reflects
the activity of the members of the schemes, between the PAC
with-profits fund and shareholders' funds. After deduction of
attaching deferred tax, the net effect is to reduce the
unallocated surplus of the PAC with-profits fund at 31 December
2004 by £472m. Shareholders' funds are reduced by £115m.
(c) Goodwill
The charge for goodwill reflects the fact, subject to annual
impairment testing, that goodwill is not amortised from the date
of adoption of IFRS.
(d) Other items
Of the deduction of £23m, £27m relates to Prudential shares
owned by unit trusts that are consolidated under IFRS. These
shares are accounted for as Treasury shares and hence deducted
from shareholders' equity rather than being recorded as assets.
(e) Valuation changes to fixed income securities and derivatives of
JNL.
Note (b) of section 3.3 above describes the altered basis of
valuation of JNL's fixed income securities and derivatives.
After partially offsetting 'shadow' accounting changes, in the
balance sheet and shareholder reserves, for deferred acquisition
costs (DAC) and related deferred tax, the altered valuation
basis gives rise to an increase in shareholders' equity of
£273m. The uplift reflects the difference between fair value (as
applied under IFRS) and amortised cost (as applied under UK GAAP
unless securities are impaired). The movement in this unrealised
appreciation from period to period primarily reflects the impact
of changes of market interest rates and risk premium. In future,
IFRS shareholders' funds are likely to be more volatile for this
feature.
4. AP basis results
4.1 Summary
The changes applied on adoption of IFRS, primarily for the Group's
non-insurance operations, have consequential effects on the Group
results reported on the Achieved Profit (AP) basis. However, the AP
value of in-force long-term business, which reflects the discounted
value of future cash flows, is unaffected. The Group will apply the
AP basis of reporting for the final time for interim reporting for
2005. Full year supplementary reporting for 2005 will be on the EEV
basis.
The summary impact on full year 2004 AP basis results and
shareholders' funds at 1st January 2005 is as follows:
Discretionary
change for
longer-
Previously term investment IFRS Restated
published* returns change (note a)
Year ended 31 December £m £m £m £m
2004
---------------------------- ------- ----------- ------ -------
Group Achieved Profit basis 1,144 101 (6) 1,239
operating profit, based on
longer-term investment
returns, before tax of
continuing operations (note
b) - see section 4.2
---------------------------- ------- ----------- ------ -------
Total Group Achieved Profit 1,629 - 85 1,714
basis profit, including
actual investment returns,
before tax of continuing
operations - see section
4.3
---------------------------- ------- ----------- ------ -------
Group Achieved Profit basis
Shareholders' Equity - see
section 4.4
•As at 31 December
2004 8,596 - 166 8,762
•Transition
adjustment - (25) (25)
•As at 1 January
2005 following 8,596 141 8,737
application of IAS 39
and IFRS 4
---------------------------- ------- ----------- ------ -------
* Figures shown as 'previously published' relate to continuing
operations and exclude amounts attached to discontinued activities,
including Egg's Funds Direct operations
Notes on restated AP basis results
(a) Basis of restatement
The changes shown above reflect the application of:
i. •The discretionary change to determination of longer-term returns
included in operating profit, (see note (b) below) and;
ii. •Statutory IFRS basis changes for the Group's other than
long-term business operations, (i.e. IFRS changes arising from
the adoption of all standards other than IAS 32, IAS 39 and IFRS
4).
iii. •An additional, consequential, change in respect of UK defined
benefit pension schemes for the shareholders' interest in the
PAC with-profits fund. (see note (c)).
(b) Operating profit based on longer-term investment returns
As for statutory (IFRS) basis results, it is the Group's
intention to continue with the approach of providing an analysis
of the results that demonstrates underlying performance, i.e.
excluding short-term volatility in investment returns. As for
statutory (IFRS) basis results, the basis of determining
longer-term returns has been revised - see 4.2 below.
(c) Additional change in respect of UK defined benefit pensions schemes
Item (iii) in respect of the provision for deficits of UK
defined benefit pension schemes reflects the AP basis
methodology, whereby shareholders' equity has, in addition to
the IFRS deficit attributable to shareholder backed operations
(as for statutory basis (IFRS) results), been adjusted to
reflect the shareholders' 10 per cent interest in the IAS19
basis deficit attributed to the PAC with-profits fund. The
latter item reflects the shareholders' interest on the AP basis
consistent with the basis of distribution of surplus from the
fund.
2. •Changes to AP basis operating results, based on longer-term investment
returns
A summary of the changes to AP basis operating profit, based on
longer-term investment returns, before shareholder tax from
continuing operations is as follows:
Discretionary
change to
Year ended 31 December longer-term
2004
AP basis operating Previously investment
results,
based on longer-term published* returns IFRS changes Restated
investment returns
before shareholder tax £m £m £m £m
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- ---------
UK and Europe Insurance 450 0 450
Operations
M&G (note a) 136 0 136
Egg (Note b) 63 (2) 61
---- --------------------- -------- ---------- -------- ---------
Total 649 (2) 647
US Operations (note c) 303 110 0 413
Prudential Corporation 385 (9) 0 377
Asia (note c)
Other income & expenditure (193) (4) (197)
(noted d)
---- --------------------- -------- ---------- -------- ---------
Group Total 1,144 101 (6) 1,239
==== ===================== ======== ========== ======== =========
* Figures shown as 'previously published' relate to continuing
operations and exclude amounts attached to discontinued activities,
including Egg's Funds Direct operations
Notes on changes to AP basis operating profit, based on longer-term
term investment returns of continuing operations
(a) M&G
As described in section 3.2 (note (b)) the changes for M&G
reflect the application of IAS 19 for the M&G pension scheme and
altered measurement of acquisition costs and front end charges
for external investment management business.
(b) Egg
As described in section 3.2 (note(c)) the changes reflect only
adjustments needed that arise from IFRS standards other than IAS
32 and IAS 39.
(c) US and Asian Operations
As described in section 3.2 (notes (d) and (e)) the change
reflects the altered basis of longer-term investment returns.
For US Operations the change on AP basis excludes the related
change to amortisation of deferred acquisition cost (DAC)
reflected for IFRS, as DAC is not part of the AP methodology.
(d) Other income and expenditure
As described in section 3.2, (note (f)), the change of £(4)m
relates to stock based compensation and pension costs.
4.3 Changes to total AP basis profit before tax including actual
investment returns, of continuing operations
Discretionary
change for
longer-
Previously term investment IFRS
Total AP basis published* returns changes Restated
Profit before shareholder £m £m £m £m
tax
------------------------- -------- ----------- -------- -------
Operating profit, based on 1,144 101 (6) 1,239
longer-term investment
returns, before tax of
continuing operations
Amortisation of goodwill (94) - 94 -
(note a)
Short-term fluctuations in 679 (101) 9 587
investment returns (note b)
Shareholders' share of - - (12) (12)
actuarial gains and losses
on defined benefit pension
schemes
Effect of changes in (100) - (100)
economic assumptions
---- ----------------------- -------- ----------- -------- -------
Total profit, including 1,629 - 85 1,714
actual investment returns
before shareholder tax, of
continuing operations
==== ======================= ======== =========== ======== =======
* Figures shown as 'previously published' relate to continuing
operations and exclude amounts attached to discontinued activities,
including Egg's Funds Direct operations
Notes on changes to total AP basis profit before tax, including
actual investment returns, of continuing operations
(a) Amortisation of goodwill
Subject to annual impairment testing, goodwill is not amortised
under IFRS.
(b) Short-term fluctuations in investment returns
The change of £(92)m on restatement from £679m to £587m includes
£(101)m in respect of the altered basis of recognition of
longer-term returns for JNL and Asian Operations.
The changes reflected in the proforma statutory basis (IFRS)
short-term fluctuations in investment returns shown in section
3.3 for JNL's derivatives will not feature in the AP basis
results. As the derivatives are part of the long-term business
assets and liabilities, which are modelled for cash flow
projection purposes, valuation adjustments, which are reported
for statutory basis reporting, are not relevant for AP basis
results.
4.4 Changes to total AP basis shareholders' equity (capital and
reserves) at 31 December 2004
A summary of changes to AP basis shareholders' equity at 31
December 2004 is as follows:
£m
---- ---------------------------------------- -----------
AP basis shareholders' equity at 31 December 2004 as 8,596
previously published
Changes arising from application of IFRS
-----------
•
Timing difference on recognition of accrued final -----------
dividend (note a) 253
•Shareholders' share of deficits (net of tax) of
UK defined benefit pension schemes
- Statutory (IFRS) basis (115)
- Additional change for shareholders' 10% interest on (47)
the AP basis,
in the deficit attributable to the PAC with-profits
fund (note b)
•Goodwill (note c)
94
•Other Items
(19)
-----------
166
---- ---------------------------------------- -----------
AP basis shareholders' equity at 31 December 2004 after 8,762
IFRS change
==== ======================================== ===========
Impact of adoption of IAS 32 and IAS 39 on AP basis shareholders' equity
at 31 December 2004
On formal adoption of IAS 32 and IAS 39 at 1 January 2005, the Group's
AP basis results will incorporate a transitional adjustment to
shareholders' equity. The changes are as follows:
Previously
published Restated
£m £m
----------------------------------- ---------- ----------
AP basis Shareholders' equity at 31 December 8,596 8,762
2004
Transition adjustment on adoption of IAS 32 and N/A (25)
IAS 39
----------------------------------- ---------- ----------
AP basis Shareholders equity at 1 January 2005 8,596 8,737
=================================== ========== ==========
Notes on changes to total AP basis shareholders' equity at 31
December 2004
(a) Timing difference on recognition of accrued final dividend
Under IFRS dividends are recognised for accounting purposes in
the period of declaration.
(b) Shareholders' share of deficits (net of tax) of UK defined
pension schemes
The additional deduction for the shareholders' share of the
deficits of the Prudential Staff Pension Scheme and Scottish
Amicable Pension Scheme reflect the fact that on the AP basis
surpluses held within the PAC with-profits fund are assumed to
be distributed over time through enhanced terminal bonuses with
shareholders receiving 10% of the surplus for distribution i.e.
one-ninth cost of bonus.
(c) Goodwill
Subject to annual impairment testing, goodwill is not amortised
under IFRS.
PRUDENTIAL PLC
2004 Restated Results
IFRS AND ACHIEVED PROFITS BASIS RESULTS
PRELIMINARY SELECTED FINANCIAL INFORMATION INCLUDED WITH PRESS RELEASE
IFRS basis results
The IFRS basis results shown on schedules B1 to B3 have been prepared on two
bases, namely 'Statutory IFRS' and 'Proforma IFRS'.
The 'Statutory IFRS' results reflect those to form the basis of the comparative
results in the Group's half year 2005 consolidated financial statements after
adjustment for appropriate presentational and format changes, and to be
accompanied by additional disclosures required by the relevant IFRS standards
and UK listing authority requirements.
For the avoidance of doubt the 'Statutory IFRS' results included in this
announcement are selected financial information and do not represent the Group's
statutory accounts.
The following points should also be noted:
a. •The preliminary information has been prepared in accordance with the basis
of preparation set out in this announcement rather than the basis applicable
for a set of formal IFRS financial statements.
b. •The disclosure and presentation requirements of formal IFRS financial
statements have not been adopted in the preliminary IFRS selected financial
information. The format of the presentation of the results in the
announcement will however be applied as part of future IFRS financial
statements.
c. •The preliminary IFRS selected financial information does not include details
of the Group's consolidated cash flows, consolidated income statement, or
consolidated balance sheet presentation.
d. •In accordance with IFRS1, no adjustments have been made for any changes in
estimates made at the time of approval of the previous UK GAAP interim and
annual financial statements on which the selected financial information is
based.
The 'Statutory IFRS' results reflect the application of :
(i) Measurement changes arising from the adoption of all IFRS standards,
other than IAS32, IAS39 and IFRS4, from 1 January 2004, in so far as
they affect the selected financial information included in this
announcement.
(ii) Changes to the format of the income statement for discontinued
operations, and other presentational changes under IFRS, in so far as
they affect the presentation of the selected financial information
included in this announcement, and
(iii) A discretionary change of policy for the basis of determining
longer-term investment returns included in operating profits
The 'Proforma IFRS' basis results are provided as supplementary information and
are not results that will form part of the company's financial statements.
The 'Proforma IFRS' results reflect the application of the 'Statutory IFRS'
changes noted above and the estimated effect on the Group's results for 2004 if
IAS32, IAS39 and IFRS4 had been applied from 1st January 2004 to the Group's
insurance operations.
The 'Proforma IFRS' results for 2004 will be provided as additional information
with the Group's half year 2005 consolidated financial statements.
Schedule
----------
Summary results, supplementary profit measures, and earnings B1
per share
Operating profits, based on longer-term investment returns,
for continuing operations,
by business area B2
Movement in shareholders' equity (capital and reserves) B3
Achieved Profits basis results
The restated Achieved Profits basis results shown on schedules B4 to B6 have
been prepared after applying:
(i) Measurement changes arising from the adoption of all IFRS standards,
other than for IAS32, IAS39 and IFRS4, from 1 January 2004.
(ii) Changes to the format of the income statement for discontinued
operations, and other presentational changes under IFRS, in so far as
they affect the selected financial information included in this
announcement.
(iii) A discretionary change of policy for the basis of determining
longer-term investment returns included in operating profits.
The Half Year 2005 Achieved Profits basis results will reflect the adoption of
all IFRS standards, including IAS32, IAS39, and IFRS4.
These three standards will be adopted at 1 January 2005. The effect on the
Achieved Profits basis results of these three standards will be confined to the
Group's non-insurance operations.
Consolidated summary results and Earnings per Share B4
Operating profits, based on longer-term investment returns, for
continuing operations by
business area B5
Movement in shareholders' capital and reserves B6
Additional details on the basis of preparation and accounting policies applied
are included in a separate section of this announcement.
PRUDENTIAL PLC Schedule B1
2004 Restated Results
IFRS BASIS RESULTS
SUMMARY RESULTS, SUPPLEMENTARY PROFIT MEASURES, AND EARNINGS PER SHARE
PREVIOUSLY
PUBLISHED
UK GAAP basis STATUTORY IFRS basis PROFORMA IFRS basis
Half year Full year Half year Full year Half year Full year
2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004
SUMMARY RESULTS £m £m £m £m £m £m
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Long-term business:
Gross premiums written for 7,526 16,355 7,526 16,355 6,249 14,096
insurance contracts
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Profit from continuing
operations, before tax
attributable to shareholders 307 758 393 850 486 985
Tax attributable to (128) (246) (138) (240) (170) (290)
shareholders*
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Profit from continuing 179 512 255 610 316 695
operations after tax
Discontinued operations, net of (16) (94) (15) (94) (15) (94)
tax
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Total profit for the period 163 418 240 516 301 601
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Attributable to:
Equity holders of the 156 428 233 517 294 602
parent company
Minority interest 7 (10) 7 (1) 7 (1)
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Total profit for the period 163 418 240 516 301 601
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
SUPPLEMENTARY PROFIT MEASURES
-------------------------------
Operating profit from
continuing operations, based on
longer-
term investment returns, before 328 623 372 708 373 699
amortisation of goodwill
Amortisation of goodwill (48) (94)
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Operating profit from
continuing operations, based on
longer-
term investment returns 280 529 372 708 373 699
Short-term fluctuations in 27 229 (27) 149 65 293
investment returns
Shareholders' share of
actuarial gains and losses on
defined
benefit pension schemes 48 (7) 48 (7)
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Profit from continuing
operations, before tax
attributable
to shareholders 307 758 393 850 486 985
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
EARNINGS PER SHARE
--------------------
Continuing operations
From operating profit, based on
longer-term investment
returns, after tax and related
minority interest, before
amortisation of goodwill 10.7 p 20.5 p 12.9 p 24.7 p 13.0 p 24.2 p
Adjustment for amortisation of (2.3) p (4.4) p
goodwill
Adjustment from post-tax
long-term investment returns
to post-tax actual investment
returns (after related
minority
interest) (0.3) p 7.1 p (2.8) p 3.0 p 0.1 p 7.5 p
Adjustment for post-tax
shareholders' share of
actuarial gains
and losses on defined benefit 1.6 p (0.2) p 1.6 p (0.2) p
pension schemes
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Based on profit from continuing
operations after minority
interest 8.1 p 23.2 p 11.7 p 27.5 p 14.7 p 31.5 p
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Discontinued
operations
From post-tax profit/
loss from discontinued
operations,
including profits on
disposal and closure
costs, net of tax and
related minority (0.6) p (3.1) p (0.5) p (3.1) p (0.5) p (3.1) p
interest
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Based on total profit 7.5 p 20.1 p 11.2 p 24.4 p 14.2 p 28.4 p
for the period after
minority interests
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Average number of shares 2,084 ** 2,129 2,075 2,121 2,075 2,121
(million)
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Dividend per share *** 5.19 p 15.84 p 10.22 p 14.81 p 10.22 p 14.81 p
* Tax charges shown throughout this announcement exclude taxes
attributable to policyholders which are accounted for as a charge in
determining pre-shareholder tax results.
Additional details on the basis of presentation of the tax charge are
included within the accounting policies section of this announcement.
** The as 'previously published' average number of shares for half year
2004 has been adjusted to reflect the impact of the rights issue in late
2004.
*** In accordance with the changed requirements of IFRS the dividend per
share figures shown above reflect dividends declared in the period
rather than, as under UK GAAP, the period to which the dividend relates.
The dividend per share for the 2003 final dividend, declared in February
2004, and the interim 2004 dividend, declared in July 2004, have been
adjusted to reflect the bonus element in the 2004 rights issue.
PRUDENTIAL PLC Schedule B2
2004 Restated Results
IFRS BASIS RESULTS
OPERATING PROFITS, BASED ON LONGER-TERM INVESTMENT RETURNS, FROM CONTINUING
OPERATIONS
PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED
UK GAAP basis STATUTORY IFRS basis PROFORMA IFRS basis
Half year Full year Half year Full year Half year Full year
2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004
RESULTS ANALYSIS BY £m £m £m £m £m £m
BUSINESS AREA
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------- --- -----
UK and Europe
operations
Insurance operations 152 305 152 305 153 296
M&G 79 136 79 136 79 136
Egg 30 63 31 61 31 61
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------- --- -----
Total 261 504 262 502 263 493
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------- --- -----
US operations
Jackson National Life 106 196 157 296 157 296
Broker dealer and fund (2) (14) (2) (14) (2) (14)
management
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------- --- -----
Total 104 182 155 282 155 282
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------- --- -----
Asian operations
Long-term business 64 126 58 117 58 117
Fund management 10 19 10 19 10 19
Development costs (10) (15) (10) (15) (10) (15)
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------- --- -----
Total 64 130 58 121 58 121
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------- --- -----
Other income and
expenditure
Investment return and 16 44 16 44 16 44
other income
Interest payable on core (74) (154) (74) (154) (74) (154)
structural borrowings
Corporate expenditure
Group Head (25) (54) (25) (54) (25) (54)
Office
Asia Regional (18) (29) (18) (29) (18) (29)
Head Office
Additional IFRS pension 0 0 (2) (4) (2) (4)
and share based payment
costs not allocated to
business operations
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------- --- -----
Total (101) (193) (103) (197) (103) (197)
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------- --- -----
Operating profit, based
on longer-term
investment
returns, from continuing 328 623 372 708 373 699
operations
------------------------ -------- --- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------- --- -----
PRUDENTIAL PLC Schedule B3
2004 Restated Results
IFRS BASIS RESULTS
MOVEMENT IN SHAREHOLDERS' CAPITAL AND RESERVES ATTRIBUTABLE TO SHAREHOLDERS OF
PARENT COMPANY
PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED
UK GAAP basis STATUTORY IFRS basis PROFORMA IFRS basis
Half year Full year Half year Full year Half year Full year
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004
RECOGNISED INCOME
AND EXPENSE £m £m £m £m £m £m
------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ ------- ------
Profit for the period (net 156 428 233 517 294 602
of minority interest)
Items taken directly to
equity:
Exchange movements (33) (173) (32) (172) (37) (191)
Value movements on fixed
income securities
classified as
available for sale:
Gross valuation (562) (106)
movements
Related change to 265 74
amortisation of
acquisition costs
Related tax 5 12 5 12 113 23
------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ ------- ------
Total recognised income for
the period (net of
minority
interest) 128 267 206 357 73 402
------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ ------- ------
RECONCILIATION OF MOVEMENT
ON CONSOLIDATED
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Total recognised income for
the period (net of minority
interest)
- as above 128 267 206 357 73 402
Proceeds from rights issue, 1,021 1,021 1,021
net of expenses
Other new share capital 61 119 61 119 61 119
subscribed
Dividends (109) (362) (214) (323) (214) (323)
Stock based compensation -
fair value adjustment (net
of
related tax) 3 10 3 10
Own shares
Own shares purchased in
respect of stock
compensation
plans (4) 0 (4) 0 (4)
Movement on Prudential
plc shares purchased by
unit trusts
newly consolidated under 0 14 0 14
IFRS
------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ ------- ------
Net increase (decrease) in
shareholders' capital and
reserves 80 1,041 56 1,194 (77) 1,239
------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ ------- ------
Shareholders' capital and
reserves at 1 January 2004
As previously reported 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Adjustments on 56 56 272 272
implementation of
statutory/proforma
IFRS
--- ------------------------ -------- ------ -------- ------ ------- ------
As re-stated 3,240 3,240 3,296 3,296 3,512 3,512
--- ------------------------ -------- ------ -------- ------ ------- ------
Shareholders' capital and
reserves at end of period
(see
note) 3,320 4,281 3,352 4,490 3,435 4,751
------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ ------- ------
Note
------
Reconciliation to shareholders' capital and reserves at 1st January 2005 on adoption of IAS32, IAS39, and
IFRS4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Capital and reserves at 31 December 2004 (as above) 4,490 4,751
Transition adjustment at 1 January 2005 on adoption of
IAS32,
IAS39, and IFRS4:
Long-term business operations 261
Other than long-term business operations (25) (25)
------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ ------- ------
Shareholders' capital and reserves at 1 January 2005 -
Statutory IFRS basis 4,726 4,726
------------------------- -------- ------ -------- ------ ------- ------
PRUDENTIAL PLC Schedule B4
2004 Restated Results
ACHIEVED PROFITS BASIS RESULTS RESTATED FOR CHANGES APPLIED ON IMPLEMENTATION OF
STATUTORY IFRS
CONSOLIDATED SUMMARY RESULTS AND EARNINGS PER SHARE
PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED RESTATED
Half year Full year Half year Full year
2004 2004 2004 2004
CONSOLIDATED SUMMARY RESULTS ON THE £m £m £m £m
ACHIEVED PROFITS BASIS
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
UK and Europe Insurance 240 450 240 450
operations
M&G 79 136 79 136
Egg 30 63 31 61
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
UK and Europe operations 349 649 350 647
US operations 164 303 220 413
Asian operations 175 385 169 376
Other income and expenditure (101) (193) (103) (197)
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Operating profit, based on 587 1,144 636 1,239
longer-term investment returns,
from continuing operations
Amortisation of goodwill (48) (94)
Short-term fluctuations in (26) 679 (76) 587
investment returns
Shareholders' share of actuarial 67 (12)
gains and losses on defined benefit
pension schemes
Effect of changes in economic 21 (100) 21 (100)
assumptions
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Profit from continuing operations 534 1,629 648 1,714
before tax (including actual
investment returns)
Tax (197) (499) (215) (491)
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Profit from continuing operations 337 1,130 433 1,223
after tax before minority
interest
Discontinued operations (net of (16) (94) (15) (94)
tax)
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Total profit for the period 321 1,036 418 1,129
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Attributable to:
Equity holders of the parent 314 1,046 411 1,130
company
Minority interest 7 (10) 7 (1)
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Total profit for the period 321 1,036 418 1,129
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
EARNINGS PER SHARE ON THE ACHIEVED
PROFITS BASIS
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Continuing operations
From operating profit, based on
longer-term investment returns,
after tax and related
minority interest 19.5 p 38.5 p 21.0 p 41.5 p
Amortisation of goodwill (2.3) p (4.4) p
Adjustment from post-tax long-term
investment returns to post-tax
actual investment
returns (after related minority (2.0) p 21.5 p (3.5) p 18.6 p
interest)
Adjustment for post-tax
shareholders' share of actuarial
gains and losses on
defined benefit pension schemes - - 2.3 p (0.3) p
Adjustment for post-tax effects of 0.5 p (3.4) p 0.5 p (3.4) p
changes in economic assumptions
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Based on profit from continuing 15.7 p 52.2 p 20.3 p 56.4 p
operations after minority
interest
Discontinued operations
From post-tax profit/loss from
discontinued operations, including
profits on disposal
and closure costs, net of tax and (0.6) p (3.1) p (0.5) p (3.1) p
related minority interest
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Based on total profit for the 15.1 p 49.1 p 19.8 p 53.3 p
period after minority interests ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
-----------------------------------
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Average number of shares 2,084 * 2,129 2,075 2,121
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
Dividend per share ** 5.19 p 15.84 p 10.22 p 14.81 p
----------------------------------- ------ --- ------- --- ------ --- ------ ---
* The 'previously published' average number of shares for half year 2004
has been adjusted to reflect the impact of the rights issue in late 2004
** In accordance with the changed requirements of IFRS the dividend per
share figures shown above reflect dividends declared in the period
rather than, as under UK GAAP, the period to which the dividend relates.
The dividend per share for the 2003 final dividend, declared in February
2004, and the interim 2004 dividend, declared in July 2004, have been
adjusted to reflect the bonus element in the 2004 rights issue.
PRUDENTIAL PLC Schedule B5
2004 Restated Results
ACHIEVED PROFITS BASIS RESULTS RESTATED FOR CHANGES APPLIED ON IMPLEMENTATION OF
STATUTORY IFRS
OPERATING PROFITS, BASED ON LONGER-TERM INVESTMENT RETURNS, FROM CONTINUING
OPERATIONS
PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED RESTATED
Half year Full year Half year Full year
2004 2004 2004 2004
RESULTS ANALYSIS BY BUSINESS £m £m £m £m
AREA
------------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
UK and Europe operations
New business 88 220 88 220
Business in force 152 230 152 230
--- ----------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Long-term business 240 450 240 450
M&G 79 136 79 136
Egg 30 63 31 61
------------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Total 349 649 350 647
------------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
US operations
New business 82 156 82 156
Business in force 84 161 140 271
--- ----------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Long-term business 166 317 222 427
Broker dealer and fund (2) (14) (2) (14)
management
------------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Total 164 303 220 413
------------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Asian operations
New business 135 312 135 312
Business in force 40 69 34 60
--- ----------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Long-term business 175 381 169 372
Fund management 10 19 10 19
Development costs (10) (15) (10) (15)
------------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Total 175 385 169 376
------------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Other income and expenditure
Investment return and other 16 44 16 44
income
Interest payable on core (74) (154) (74) (154)
structural borrowings
Corporate expenditure
Group Head Office (25) (54) (25) (54)
Asia Regional Head (18) (29) (18) (29)
Office
Additional IFRS pension and 0 0 (2) (4)
share based payment costs not
allocated to business
operations
------------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Total (101) (193) (103) (197)
------------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Operating profit, based on
longer-term investment
returns, from continuing 587 1,144 636 1,239
operations
------------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Analysed as operating profits
from:
Long-term business
New business 305 688 305 688
Business in force 276 460 326 561
--- --- ---------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
581 1,148 631 1,249
Other operations 6 (4) 5 (10)
--- ----------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
Total 587 1,144 636 1,239
--- ----------------------- -------- ------- ------ ------ -------
PRUDENTIAL PLC Schedule B6
2004 Restated Results
ACHIEVED PROFITS BASIS RESULTS RESTATED FOR CHANGES APPLIED ON IMPLEMENTATION OF
STATUTORY IFRS
MOVEMENT IN ACHIEVED PROFITS BASIS SHAREHOLDERS' CAPITAL AND RESERVES
ATTRIBUTABLE TO SHAREHOLDERS OF THE PARENT COMPANY
PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED RESTATED
Half Full Half Full
year year year year
2004 2004 2004 2004
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF RECOGNISED INCOME AND EXPENSE £m £m £m £m
------------------------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Profit for the period (net of minority interest) 314 1,046 411 1,130
Items taken directly to equity:
Exchange movements (54) (241) (53) (240)
Related tax 5 12 5 12
------------------------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Total recognised income for the period (net of minority interest) 265 817 363 902
------------------------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
RECONCILIATION OF MOVEMENT ON CONSOLIDATED SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Total recognised income for the period (net of minority interest) - as 265 817 363 902
above
Proceeds from rights issue, net of expenses 1,021 1,021
Other new share capital subscribed 61 119 61 119
Dividends (109) (362) (214) (323)
Stock based compensation - fair value adjustment (net of related tax) 3 10
Own shares:
Own shares purchased in respect of stock compensation plans (4) (4)
Movement on Prudential plc shares purchased by unit trusts newly 14
consolidated under IFRS
------------------------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Net increase in shareholders' capital and reserves 217 1,591 213 1,739
------------------------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Shareholders' capital and reserves at 1 January 2004
As previously reported 7,005 7,005 7,005 7,005
Adjustments on implementation of statutory IFRS - - 18 18
--- ----------------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
As re-stated 7,005 7,005 7,023 7,023
--- ----------------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Shareholders' capital and reserves at end of period 7,222 8,596 7,236 8,762
------------------------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Analysed as:
Statutory IFRS basis shareholders' capital and reserves 3,320 4,281 3,352 4,490
Additional shareholders' interest on the Achieved Profits basis 3,902 4,315 3,884 4,272
--- ----------------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Shareholders' capital and reserves at end of period (see note) 7,222 8,596 7,236 8,762
------------------------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Note
------
Reconciliation to shareholders' capital and reserves at 1 January 2005
on adoption of IAS32, IAS39, and IFRS4
----------------------------------------
Capital and reserves at 31 December 2004 (as above) 8,762
Transition adjustment at 1 January 2005 on adoption of IAS32, IAS39,
and IFRS4:
Statutory basis transition adjustment 236
Less: long-term business element subsumed within
adjustment to additional shareholders' interest (261)
--- ----------------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Achieved Profits basis transition adjustment (25)
--- ----------------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Shareholders' capital and reserves at 1 January 2005 8,737
------------------------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Analysed as:
Statutory IFRS basis shareholders' capital and reserves 4,726
Additional shareholders' interest on the Achieved Profits basis 4,011
--- ----------------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Shareholders' capital and reserves at 1 January 2005 8,737
------------------------------------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
APPENDIX C
Insurance Groups Directive ('IGD') and Financial Groups Directive ('FGD')
•Prudential plc announces today an IGD surplus of £845m for 31 December
2004 in excess of its £2bn capital resources requirements.
•If Prudential had chosen to seek permission from the FSA to apply
transitional rules applicable up to 31 December 2004 which allowed
externally generated goodwill to be included in the valuation of certain
subsidiaries, Prudential's underlying IGD surplus would have been
approximately £2.2bn.
•The IGD has applied to Prudential since 1 January 2001. This requires the
determination of group solvency through the aggregation of surplus capital
held in its subsidiaries, from which group borrowings are deducted, other
than subordinated debt issues which qualify as capital.
•The FGD has applied to Prudential since 1 January 2005. A similar
calculation of group solvency as for the IGD is required, although the test
under the FGD is a continuous requirement and a regulatory obligation.
1.0 Background
At 31 December 2004, Prudential was required to meet the solvency requirements
of the IGD, as implemented by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). The IGD
introduced specific legislation for the prudential supervision of insurance
groups, which introduced a test of solvency at the parent company level which
requires it to hold capital in excess of the aggregate of all the minimum
solvency requirements of its subsidiaries. In particular, the IGD prohibits
'double gearing', i.e. where the same regulatory capital is used more than once
to cover the separate capital requirements of different insurers in the Group,
and 'excessive leveraging' or 'down-streaming', where the proceeds of debt
issuance is used as equity for the regulated subsidiaries.
Due to the geographically diverse nature of Prudential's operations, the
application of these requirements to Prudential is complex. In particular, for
many of our Asian operations, the assets, liabilities and capital requirements
have to be recalculated on bases required by the FSA.
The FGD, which affects groups with significant cross-sectoral activities in
insurance and banking/investment services, came into force for Prudential from 1
January 2005. The FSA has implemented the FGD by applying the sectoral rules of
the largest sector; hence an insurance-led conglomerate such as Prudential is
required to focus on the capital adequacy requirements of the IGD, the
Consolidated Life Insurance Directive and the Insurance Company Accounts
Directive.
The FGD requires a continuous parent company solvency test, which requires the
aggregation of surplus capital held in the subsidiaries, from which group
borrowings are deducted, other than subordinated debt which qualifies as
capital. The test is passed when this aggregate number is positive. A negative
result at any point in time becomes a notifiable breach of UK regulatory
requirements. Prudential has put in place a regulatory capital projection model
taking into account FSA basis capital resources and requirements of all Business
Units to monitor the continuous solvency requirements.
Additionally, the FSA has indicated that it will require public disclosure of
the FGD solvency position from 31 December 2005, for which the detailed rules on
disclosure have yet to be published. In practice, whether Prudential is
classified as a financial conglomerate or insurance group, there is very little
difference in application of the rules. This is because the FSA has aligned the
requirements of the FGD with the IGD and has decided to make the test mandatory
from 31 December 2006 to all insurance groups, and requires public disclosure of
the Group solvency position from 31 December 2005.
2.0 Results
At 31 December 2004, Prudential had surplus of £845m in excess of its £2bn
capital resources requirements.
The contribution to this IGD surplus, by Business Unit is as follows:
£m
Business Unit Entities
------------------------
Insurers
UK Insurance Operations (shareholders) 520
Jackson National Life 1,418
Prudential Corporation Asia* (586)
Non-Insurers
M&G 244
Egg 59
Other 41
-------
Total Business Unit Entities 1,696
-------
Holding Company
-----------------
Assets in the Holding Company 229
Core Debt (2,509)
Add back qualifying Subordinated Debt 1,429
-------
Total Holding Company (851)
-------
Group Surplus 845
-------
* The Prudential Corporation Asia contribution of (£586m) above
compares to approximately £300m of local regulatory basis surplus of
capital resources over capital resources requirements.
This excludes the impact of transitional rules applicable up to 31
December 2004 by the FSA, which allowed externally generated goodwill to
be included in the valuation of certain subsidiaries. Had Prudential
applied for, and been given permission to use these transitional rules,
its underlying IGD position would have been a surplus of approximately
£2.2bn.
APPENDIX D
Economic Capital
•Prudential plc announces today an Economic Capital surplus for 31
December 2004 in respect of its in-force business of £1.6bn against its
internal Group capital target.
•This is based on the results of Prudential's internal Economic Capital
assessment, which shows an Economic Capital requirement of £1.8bn taking
into account diversification benefits compared to available capital of
£3.4bn.
•Economic Capital is the amount required to ensure that Prudential can
meet its existing contractual and discretionary policyholder obligations and
remain solvent at all times over a 25-year time horizon, within a strict
target solvency level.
•Prudential initiated the Economic Capital project three years ago in
order to enhance its group-wide platform for business management, with
particular focus on capital management and risk governance.
1.0 Background
Prudential initiated the Economic Capital project three years ago in order to
enhance its group-wide platform for business management. In particular, there
were three key business objectives of the project:
•Increase value creation through improved capital allocation and
performance management
•Enhance risk governance as part of a comprehensive risk management
framework
•Demonstrate financial strength.
Economic Capital is integral to Prudential's capital and financial management at
Group and Business Unit level. It informs Prudential's risk appetite for taking
on different risks in different geographies, both in terms of the extreme events
that have the potential to deplete its capital base, and the more day-to-day
volatility to which it is exposed. It supports the asset-liability management
both through optimisation of the asset allocation process and through supporting
crediting and bonus declaration strategies for Prudential's policyholders. More
broadly, it will be used in the assessment and driving of value creation via
risk-adjusted return on capital measures. Finally, it provides a more realistic
adjunct to the various regulatory solvency calculations, in particular the
Insurance Groups Directive, and will be an input into Prudential's discussions
with the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in respect of its Individual Capital
Guidance.
2.0 Framework and Approach
The calculation of Economic Capital is based on three key principles, namely
that it should:
•Capture diversification benefits and capital mobility inherent in the
business of an internationally diversified insurer such as Prudential
•Use a multi-year time horizon tailored to the multi-year nature of the
life insurance business
•Have comprehensive coverage but with key focus on major risk types and
operations.
Economic capital is the amount required to ensure that Prudential can meet its
existing contractual and discretionary policyholder obligations and remain
solvent at all times over a 25-year time horizon, within a strict target
solvency level.
Prudential has adopted a framework whereby cash flows and capital requirements
for each of the main Business Units in the UK, US and Asia are projected over
many internally consistent stochastically-generated simulations. This process,
using a Group Solvency Model, captures 80 percent of the business, the other 20
percent being modelled on a standalone basis and aggregated with the main
results using a correlation matrix approach. This is a standard method of
aggregation used by banks and other financial institutions.
The explicit stochastic modelling of global asset return scenarios, which are
directly correlated between asset classes and between geographies, enables
diversification benefits to be captured for each individual scenario. For each
simulation, and in each of the projected 25 years, Business Units calculate
their capital surplus, transfers or requirements using their asset-liability
models. These projected capital transfers to and from Business Units are
aggregated together at Group level, together with Group level cash flows such as
interest on debt and expenses. This gives a Group level capital balance for each
scenario in each of the 25 years.
In order to take into account restrictions on mobility of capital across the
Group, capital transfers to and from Business Units are triggered at a solvency
level that reflects a suitable level of operating capital, based on local
regulatory solvency targets, over and above basic liabilities. This includes
restrictions on the availability to the Group of the full estate of the various
with-profits funds throughout the Group, which are excluded from initial
available capital. The Economic Capital requirement includes sufficient capital
to meet this working requirement as well as to cover the risks in the business.
Using an iterative modelling process, Economic Capital is calculated as the
amount required at the calculation date such that the cumulative number of
projected defaults (defined as a negative Group capital balance) is less than a
pre-determined rate reflecting Prudential's internal target solvency level.
Prudential's internal target solvency level has been set as equivalent to the
historic default rate on a AA-rated bond (equivalent to a cumulative probability
of default of 44 out of 1,000 simulations over 25 years). The Economic Capital
framework thus assesses the capital required to meet Prudential's obligations
with at least this level of confidence taking into account extreme events.
The definition of available capital is consistent with the definition of Capital
Resources in the FSA's Integrated Prudential Sourcebook for Insurers, with some
adjustments for valuation differences between the FSA and Economic Capital
bases.
Stochastic risk scenarios are generated by Prudential's in-house Generator of
Stochastic Investment Scenarios ('GeneSIS') which uses models of individual
risks from academic literature, together with a set of correlations to produce
integrated risk scenarios that reflect the range and probability of different
outcomes as they affect the Group.
Prudential's Economic Capital model covers all material risks in each business,
including (where relevant):
•Financial risks
•Asset-liability matching (driven by equity, property, interest rates,
bond returns and inflation)
•Credit risk
•Insurance and business risks
•Underwriting (mortality, longevity and morbidity)
•Persistency
•Operational risk
As well as the more standard approaches to market risks, Prudential has
developed a detailed model for credit risk, which captures spread volatility,
credit migration and default over the multi-year period.
GeneSIS produces asset returns in each scenario and for each projected time
period. These are based on the scenario and time-specific risk-free return, an
additional risk premium and an appropriate level of volatility. The risk-free
component of the model has been calibrated to current market prices (risk free
bonds and interest rate derivatives) and observed historic behaviour. The risk
premium and volatility assumptions, which vary by asset class, have been derived
from market prices and assumptions produced by the Portfolio Management Group,
Prudential's internal economists, who are responsible for investment strategy
for the £98bn of assets relating to Prudential's long-term funds.
To the extent it can be reasonably projected, the systematic behaviour of
policyholders and the ability of management to react to extreme events (subject
to policyholders' reasonable expectations) have been modelled. The multi-year
approach also allows accumulative risks such as longevity to be captured in
full.
Prudential's approach to modelling operational risk involves examining the
possible operational events to which it could be exposed, with particular focus
on the low frequency, but high severity events that threaten the Group's
solvency, and using a stochastic model that simulates these events based on
assumptions around incidence and size. This has been implemented in each of the
Business Units and tailored to their own profiles, and the results are captured
as part of the Economic Capital requirement.
3.0 Results
As at 31 December 2004, Prudential required £1.6bn of capital to cover the risks
to its existing contractual and discretionary insurance liabilities, on an
economic basis and at its internal target solvency level. This number is after
allowance for diversification across risks and geographies and the capturing of
future shareholders' transfers from the Business Units. This compares to
available capital of £3.4bn on an equivalent basis.
This requirement has been analysed into its contributory parts, by risk type and
by Business Unit, as follows:
Risk Type Percentage of Group Economic
Capital Requirement
Asset-Liability Matching 28%
Credit 47%
Underwriting (mortality, longevity 10%
and morbidity)
Persistency 2%
Operational 13%
Business Unit Percentage of Group Economic Capital
Requirement
Prudential UK Shareholder 21%
Prudential UK 0%
With-Profits
Jackson National Life (JNL) 45%
Prudential Corporation 16%
Asia
M&G 5%
Egg 12%
Prudential Group 1%
Headquarters
The largest risk exposure on a diversified basis, credit risk, reflects the
relative size of the exposure to JNL (30 per cent), Prudential UK shareholder
annuities business (5 per cent) and Egg (10 per cent).
Prudential UK with-profits capital requirements are fully covered by the
internal estate within the 90:10 fund.
JNL is the largest shareholder operation at Prudential, and the 45% share of
Economic Capital requirements reflects this.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange