Prudential plc FY09 unaudited

RNS Number : 8118H

Prudential PLC

01 March 2010

 



RISK FACTORS

A number of factors (risk factors) affect Prudential's operating results and financial condition and, accordingly, the trading price of its shares. The risk factors mentioned below should not be regarded as a complete and comprehensive statement of all potential risks and uncertainties. The information given is as of the date of this report, is not updated, and any forward-looking statements are made subject to the reservations specified under 'Forward-Looking Statements" at the end of the news release. 

Risks Relating to Prudential's Business

Prudential's businesses are inherently subject to market fluctuations and general economic conditions.

Prudential's businesses are inherently subject to market fluctuations and general economic conditions. Uncertain or negative trends in international economic and investment climates which have adversely affected Prudential's business and profitability could be repeated, or prolonged, or could worsen. The adverse effects of such trends, including the unprecedented market dislocation across asset classes and geographical markets witnessed in 2008 and in the first half of 2009, have been and would be felt principally through the following:

·    investment impairments or reduced investment returns, as a result of market volatility, could impair Prudential's ability to write significant volumes of new business as a result of market volatility, which would have a negative impact on its assets under management and profit;

·    higher credit defaults and wider credit and liquidity spreads resulting in realised and unrealised credit losses, as experienced during 2008 and 2009,  when illiquidity and credit spreads reached all-time highs;

·    Prudential in the normal course of business enters into a variety of transactions with counterparties, including derivative transactions. Failure of any of these counterparties to discharge their obligations, or where adequate collateral is not in place, could have an adverse impact on Prudential's results; and

·    in certain illiquid or closed markets, determining the value at which financial instruments can be realised is highly subjective. Processes to ascertain value and estimates of value require substantial elements of judgement, assumptions and estimates (which may change over time). Increased illiquidity also adds to uncertainty over the accessibility of financial resources and may reduce capital resources as valuations decline.  

Estimates of financial instruments' value are difficult because a significant part of Prudential's shareholders' profit is related to bonuses for policyholders declared on its with-profits products, which are broadly based on historic and current rates of return on equity, real estate and fixed income securities, as well as Prudential's expectations of future investment returns. During 2008 and for the first half of 2009, Prudential has had to operate in the UK against a challenging background of unprecedented volatility in capital and equity markets, interest rates and widespread economic uncertainty. This has led, among other things, to reduced consumer spending, an increase in unemployment, and consequently reduced liquidity, requiring the intervention of the Bank of England via a quantitative easing programme to restore credit liquidity in the market.

In the US fluctuations in prevailing interest rates can affect results from Jackson National Life Insurance Company ("Jackson"), which has a significant spread-based business, with the majority of its assets invested in fixed income securities. In particular, fixed annuities and stable value products written by Jackson expose the Prudential Group to the risk that changes in interest rates, which are not fully reflected in the interest rates credited to customers, will reduce spread. The spread is the difference between the rate of return Jackson is able to earn on the assets backing the policyholders' liabilities and the amounts that are credited to policyholders in the form of benefit increases, subject to minimum crediting rates. During 2008, the US financial services industry faced an unprecedented array of challenges: the S&P 500 index fell by 38.5 per cent, government interest rates fell to historic lows, and global markets experienced a significant increase in volatility. In addition, credit markets seized up and global credit spreads widened to historic levels. These factors contributed to substantial increases in Jackson's unrealised losses. Although global markets have begun to stabilise beginning in 2009, interest rates remain low, many of the challenges of 2008 persist in the credit markets and new challenges such as potential sovereign credit deterioration and defaults continue to emerge. Declines in spread from these products or other spread businesses that Jackson conducts could have a material impact on its businesses or results of operations. Jackson also writes a significant amount of variable annuities that offer capital or income protection guarantees. There could be unforeseen market circumstances where the derivatives that it enters into to hedge its market risks may not fully offset its losses, and any cost of the guarantees that remain unhedged will also affect the Company's results.

For some non unit-linked investment products, in particular those written in some of Prudential Group's Asian operations, it may not be possible to hold assets which will provide cash flows to exactly match those relating to policyholder liabilities. This is particularly true in those countries where bond markets are not developed and in certain markets where regulated surrender values are set with reference to the interest rate environment prevailing at the time of policy issue. This results in a mismatch due to the duration and uncertainty of the liability cash flows and the lack of sufficient assets of a suitable duration. This residual asset/liability mismatch risk can be managed but not eliminated. Where interest rates in these markets remain lower than interest rates used to calculate surrender values over a sustained period, this could have an adverse impact on Prudential Group's reported profit.

Prudential is subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations owing to the geographical diversity of its businesses.

Due to the geographical diversity of its businesses,  Prudential is subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. Prudential's international operations in the US and Asia, which represent a significant proportion of operating profit and shareholders' funds, generally write policies and invest in assets denominated in local currency. Although this practice limits the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on local operating results, it can lead to significant fluctuations in Prudential's consolidated financial statements upon translation of results into Sterling. The currency exposure relating to the translation of reported earnings is not separately managed. Consequently, this could impact on Prudential Group's gearing ratios (defined as debt over debt plus shareholders' funds). The impact of gains or losses on currency translations is recorded as a component of shareholders' funds within the statement of changes in equity.

Prudential conducts its businesses subject to regulation and associated regulatory risks, including the effects of changes in the laws, regulations, policies and interpretations and any accounting standards in the markets in which it operates.

Changes in government policy, legislation (including tax) or regulatory interpretation applying to companies in the financial services and insurance industries in any of the markets in which Prudential operates, which in some circumstances maybe applied retrospectively, may adversely affect  Prudential's product range, distribution channels, capital requirements and, consequently, reported results and financing requirements. For instance, regulators in jurisdictions in which Prudential operates may change the level of capital required to be held by individual businesses. Also these changes could include possible changes in the regulatory framework for pension arrangements and policies, the regulation of selling practices and solvency requirements. Furthermore, as a result of the recent interventions by governments in response to global economic conditions, it is widely expected that there will be a substantial increase in government regulation and supervision of the financial services industry, including the possibility of higher capital requirements, restrictions on certain types of transaction structure, and enhanced supervisory powers.

Current EU directives, including the EU Insurance Groups Directive ("IGD") require European financial services groups to demonstrate net aggregate surplus capital in excess of solvency requirements at the Group level in respect of shareholder-owned entities. The test is a continuous requirement, so that Prudential needs to maintain a somewhat higher amount of regulatory capital at the Group level than otherwise necessary in respect of some of its individual businesses to accommodate, for example, short term movements in global foreign exchange rates, interest rates, deterioration in credit quality and equity markets. The EU is also developing a new solvency framework for insurance companies, referred to as "Solvency II". The new approach will be based on the concept of three pillars - minimum capital requirements, supervisory review of firms' assessment of risk, and enhanced disclosure requirements - and will cover valuations, the treatment of insurance groups, the definition of capital and the overall level of capital requirements. A key aspect of Solvency II is that the assessment of risks and capital requirements will be aligned more closely with economic capital methodologies, and may allow the Group to make use of its internal economic capital models, if approved by the FSA. The Solvency II Directive was formally approved by a meeting of the EU's Economic and Financial Affairs Council on 10 November 2009. The European Commission has already initiated the process of developing the detailed rules that will complement the high-level Principles of the Directive, referred to as "implementing measures", which are subject to a consultation process and are not expected to be finalised until late 2011. There is a significant uncertainty regarding the final outcome of this process. As a result there is a risk that the effect of the measures finally adopted could be adverse for the Group, including potentially a significant increase in the capital required to support the UK annuity business. In addition, the application of Solvency II to international groups is still unclear and there is a risk of inconsistent application, which may place Prudential at a competitive disadvantage to other European and non European financial services groups.

Various jurisdictions in which Prudential operates have created investor compensation schemes that require mandatory contributions from market participants in some instances in the event of a failure of a market participant. As a major participant in the majority of its chosen markets, circumstances could arise where Prudential, along with other companies, may be required to make such contributions.

The Group's accounts are prepared in accordance with current International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS") applicable to the insurance industry. The International Accounting Standards Board ("IASB") introduced a framework that it described as Phase I, which permitted insurers to continue to use the statutory basis of accounting for insurance assets and liabilities that existed in their jurisdictions prior to January 2005. The IASB has published proposals in its Phase II discussion paper, which would introduce significant changes to the statutory reporting of insurance entities that prepare accounts according to IFRS and has stated its intention to publish an Exposure Draft in 2010. It is uncertain whether and how the proposals in the discussion paper will become definitive IFRS and when such changes might take effect.

Any changes or modification of IFRS accounting policies may require a change in the future results or a restatement of reported results

European Embedded Value ("EEV") basis results are published as supplementary information by Prudential using principles issued by the European CFO (Chief Financial Officers) Forum. The EEV basis is a value based reporting method for Prudential's long-term business which is used by market analysts and which underpins a significant part of the key performance indicators used by Prudential's management for both internal and external reporting purposes. In June 2008, in an effort to improve the consistency and transparency of embedded value reporting, the CFO Forum published the Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) Principles. Following a review of the impact of turbulent market conditions on the MCEV Principles, the CFO Forum announced in May 2009 the postponement of the mandatory reporting on MCEV basis until 2011 and subsequently, in October 2009, changes in the principles to allow for the inclusion of a liquidity premium, which is the additional return investors require for investing in less liquid assets and is a key component in the calculation of the profitability of UK annuity business. It also announced that it was performing further work to develop more detailed application guidance to increase consistency going forward. When the work has been completed, Prudential will consider its approach to the new Principles. The adoption of the new Principles would give rise to different embedded value results from those prepared under the application of European Embedded Value Principles.

The resolution of several issues affecting the financial services industry could have a negative impact on Prudential's reported results or on its relations with current and potential customers.

Prudential is, and in the future may be, subject to legal and regulatory actions in the ordinary course of its business, both in the UK and internationally. This could be a review of business sold in the past under previously acceptable market practices at the time, such as the requirement in the UK to provide redress to certain past purchasers of pension and mortgage endowment policies, changes to the tax regime affecting products and regulatory reviews on products sold and industry practices, including, in the latter case, businesses it has closed.

Regulators particularly, but not exclusively, in the US and the UK are moving towards a regime based on principles-based regulation which brings an element of uncertainty. These regulators are increasingly interested in the approach that product providers use to select third party distributors and to monitor the appropriateness of sales made by them. In some cases product providers can be held responsible for the deficiencies of third-party distributors.

In the US, federal and state regulators have focused on, and continue to devote substantial attention to, the mutual fund, fixed index variable annuity and insurance product industries. This includes new regulations in respect of the suitability of broker-dealers' sales of certain products. As a result of publicity relating to widespread perceptions of industry abuses, there have been numerous regulatory inquiries and proposals for legislative and regulatory reforms.

In Asia, regulatory regimes are developing at different speeds, driven by a combination of global factors and local considerations. There is a risk that new requirements are introduced that are retrospectively applied to sales made prior to their introduction.

Litigation and disputes may adversely affect Prudential's profitability and financial condition.

Prudential is, and may be in the future, subject to legal actions and disputes in the ordinary course of its insurance, investment management and other business operations. These legal actions and disputes may relate to aspects of Prudential's businesses and operations that are specific to Prudential, or that are common to companies that operate in Prudential's markets. Legal actions and disputes may arise under contracts, regulations (including tax) or from a course of conduct taken by Prudential, and may be class actions. Although Prudential believes that it has adequately provided in all material aspects for the costs of litigation and regulatory matters, no assurance can be provided that such provisions are sufficient. Given the large or indeterminate amounts of damages sometimes sought, and the inherent unpredictability of litigation and disputes, it is possible that an adverse outcome could, from time to time, have an adverse effect on Prudential's results of operation or cash flows.

Prudential's businesses are conducted in highly competitive environments with developing demographic trends and Prudential's continued profitability depends on its management's ability to respond to these pressures and trends.

The markets for financial services in the UK, US and Asia are highly competitive, with several factors affecting Prudential's ability to sell its products and continued profitability, including price and yields offered, financial strength and ratings, range of product lines and product quality, brand strength and name recognition, investment management performance, historical bonus levels, developing demographic trends and customer appetite for certain savings products. In some of its markets, Prudential faces competitors that are larger, have greater financial resources or a greater market share, offer a broader range of products or have higher bonus rates or claims-paying ratios. Further, heightened competition for talented and skilled employees with local experience, particularly in Asia, may limit Prudential Group's potential to grow its business as quickly as planned.

Within the UK, Prudential's principal competitors in the life market include many of the major retail financial services companies including, in particular, Aviva, Legal & General, Lloyds Banking Group and Standard Life.

Jackson's competitors in the US include major stock and mutual insurance companies, mutual fund organisations, banks and other financial services companies such as AIG, AXA Financial Inc., Hartford Life Inc., Lincoln National, MetLife and TIAA-CREF.

In Asia, the Prudential Group's principal regional competitors are international financial companies, including Allianz, AXA, ING, AIA and Manulife. In a number of markets, local companies have a very significant market presence.

Prudential believes competition will intensify across all regions in response to consumer demand, technological advances, the impact of consolidation, regulatory actions and other factors. Prudential's ability to generate an appropriate return depends significantly upon its capacity to anticipate and respond appropriately to these competitive pressures.

Downgrades in Prudential's financial strength and credit ratings could significantly impact its competitive position and hurt its relationships with creditors or trading counterparties.

Prudential's financial strength and credit ratings, which are used by the market to measure its ability to meet policyholder obligations, are an important factor affecting public confidence in most of  Prudential's products, and as a result its competitiveness. Changes in methodologies and criteria used by rating agencies could result in downgrades that do not reflect changes in the general economic conditions or Prudential's financial condition. Downgrades in Prudential's ratings could have an adverse effect on its ability to market products and retain current policyholders. In addition, the interest rates Prudential pays on its borrowings are affected by its debt credit ratings, which are in place to measure Prudential's ability to meet its contractual obligations.

Prudential's long-term senior debt is rated as A2 (negative outlook) by Moody's, A+ (negative outlook) by Standard & Poor's and A+ (negative outlook) by Fitch.

Prudential's short-term debt is rated as P-1 by Moody's, A-1 by Standard & Poor's and F1+ by Fitch.

Prudential Assurance Company Limited ("Prudential Assurance") long-term fund is rated Aa2 (negative outlook) by Moody's, AA (negative outlook) by Standard & Poor's and AA+ (negative outlook) by Fitch.

Jackson's financial strength is rated AA (negative outlook) by Standard & Poor's and Fitch, A1 (negative outlook) by Moody's, and A+ (negative outlook) by AM Best.

Adverse experience in the operational risks inherent in Prudential's business could have a negative impact on its results of operations.

Operational risks are present in all of Prudential's businesses, including the risk of direct or indirect loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal and external processes, systems and human error or from external events. Prudential's business is dependent on processing a large number of complex transactions across numerous and diverse products, and is subject to a number of different legal and regulatory regimes. In addition, Prudential outsources several operations, including in the UK a significant part of its back office and customer-facing functions as well as a number of IT functions. In turn, Prudential is reliant upon the operational processing performance of its outsourcing partners.

Further, because of the long-term nature of much of Prudential's business, accurate records have to be maintained for significant periods. Prudential's systems and processes incorporate controls which are designed to manage and mitigate the operational risks associated with its activities. For example, any weakness in the administration systems or actuarial reserving processes could have an impact on its results of operations during the effective period. Prudential has not experienced or identified any operational risks in its systems or processes during 2009, which have subsequently caused, or are expected to cause, a significant negative impact on its results of operations.

Notwithstanding anything in this risk factor, this risk factor should not be taken as implying that Prudential or any member of Prudential Group will be unable to comply with its obligations as a company with securities admitted to the Official List or as a supervised firm regulated by the FSA.

Adverse experience against the assumptions used in pricing products and reporting business results could significantly affect Prudential's results of operations.

Prudential needs to make assumptions about a number of factors in determining the pricing of its products, and for reporting the capital levels and the results of its long-term business operations. For example, the assumption that Prudential makes about future expected levels of mortality is particularly relevant for its UK annuity business. In exchange for a premium equal to the capital value of their accumulated pension fund, pension annuity policyholders receive a guaranteed payment, usually monthly, for as long as they are alive. Prudential conducts rigorous research into longevity risk, using data from its substantial annuitant portfolio. As part of its pension annuity pricing and reserving policy, Prudential assumes that current rates of mortality continuously improve over time at levels based on adjusted data from the Continuous Mortality Investigations (CMI) as published by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. If mortality improvement rates significantly exceed the improvement assumed, Prudential's results of operations could be adversely affected.

A further example is the assumption that Prudential makes about future expected levels of the rates of early termination of products by its customers (persistency). This is particularly relevant to its lines of business other than its UK annuity business. Prudential's persistency assumptions reflect recent past experience for each relevant line of business. Any expected deterioration in future persistency is also reflected in the assumption. If actual levels of future persistency are significantly lower than assumed (that is, policy termination rates are significantly higher than assumed), Prudential's results of operations could be adversely affected.

In common with other industry participants, the profitability of the Prudential Group's businesses depends on a mix of factors including mortality and morbidity trends, policy surrender rates, investment performance and impairments, unit cost of administration and new business acquisition expense.

As a holding company, Prudential is dependent upon its subsidiaries to cover operating expenses and dividend payments.

Prudential's insurance and investment management operations are generally conducted through direct and indirect subsidiaries. As a holding company, Prudential's principal sources of funds are remittances from subsidiaries, shareholder-backed funds, the shareholder transfer from Prudential's long-term funds and any amounts that may be raised through the issuance of equity, debt and commercial paper. Certain of the subsidiaries have regulatory restrictions that can limit the payment of dividends, which in some circumstances could limit Prudential Group's ability to pay dividends to shareholders.

Prudential operates in a number of markets through joint ventures and other arrangements with third parties (including in China and India). These arrangements involve certain risks that Prudential does not face with respect to its consolidated subsidiaries.

Prudential operates, and in certain markets is required by local regulation to operate, through joint ventures (including in China and India). Prudential's ability to exercise management control over its joint venture operations and its investment in them depends on the terms of the joint venture agreements, in particular, the allocation of control among, and continued co-operation between, the joint venture participants. Prudential may also face financial or other exposure in the event that any of its joint venture partners fails to meet its obligations under the joint venture or encounters financial difficulty. In addition, a significant proportion of the Prudential Group's product distribution is carried out through arrangements with third parties not controlled by Prudential and is dependent upon continuation of these relationships. A temporary or permanent disruption to these distribution arrangements could adversely affect Prudential's results of operations.

Prudential's Articles of Association contain an exclusive jurisdiction provision

Under Prudential's Articles of Association, certain legal proceedings may only be brought in the courts of England and Wales. This applies to legal proceedings between a shareholder (in its capacity as such) against Prudential and/or its directors and/or its professional service providers. It also applies to legal proceedings between Prudential and its directors and/or Prudential and Prudential's professional service providers that arise in connection with legal proceedings between the shareholder and such professional service provider. This provision could make it difficult for US and other non-UK shareholders to enforce their shareholder rights.

 

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