Trading Statement
Reed Elsevier PLC
04 December 2003
News Release
Issued on behalf of Reed Elsevier PLC and Reed Elsevier NV
4 December 2003
REED ELSEVIER PROVIDES UPDATE ON TRADING
Highlights
* On track to deliver our target of double digit adjusted earnings per share
growth* in 2003, for the third successive year
* Continued tight control of costs
* Further year of good progress and outperformance in Science & Medical and
Legal
* Soft markets in Education and Business holding back growth
* Increased level of investment to accelerate future revenue growth
* Targeting mid to high single digit growth in adjusted earnings per share*
for 2004 with double digit earnings growth for 2005 and beyond
* at constant currencies
Commenting, Crispin Davis, Chief Executive Officer, said:
'I am pleased to confirm that, despite the challenging market environment, we
are on track to deliver on our targets of above market revenue growth and double
digit constant currency growth in earnings per share in 2003, for the third
successive year. This performance re-emphasises the fundamental strengths of
our assets and of the strategy that we are pursuing.
We have set challenging but prudent goals for 2004, reflecting difficult market
conditions and the priority we are giving to expanding our investment programme
to accelerate revenue growth in the future. We firmly believe that this is the
right course for the business at this time. Given the improving longer term
outlook for our markets and the US schools adoption calendar, we fully expect to
deliver double digit earnings growth in 2005 and beyond.'
For further information:
Catherine May (Media) Reed Elsevier 020 7227 5657
Sybella Stanley Reed Elsevier 020 7227 5630
This announcement contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of
Section 27A of the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These statements concern future
matters, such as the features and functions of, and markets for, products and
services offered by Reed Elsevier, and Reed Elsevier's business plans and
strategies. Forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations of
the management of Reed Elsevier and are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Actual results and events could differ materially from the results discussed in
the forward-looking statements. Factors which could cause or contribute to
differences in results include, but are not limited to, general economic
conditions and business conditions in Reed Elsevier's markets, customers'
acceptance of its products and services, the actions of competitors, changes in
law and legal interpretation affecting Reed Elsevier's intellectual property
rights, and the impact of technological change. Reed Elsevier is not under any
obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its
forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events
or otherwise.
REED ELSEVIER PROVIDES UPDATE ON TRADING
Reed Elsevier today reaffirmed that it is on track to deliver double digit
adjusted earnings per share growth at constant exchange rates this year. Strong
relative performances within its markets and further cost actions are delivering
this good overall result whilst funding the continuing high level of investment
in the business.
The adjusted earnings per share growth, when expressed in sterling and euros,
will be impacted by currency translation effects due, in particular, to the
year-on-year decline of the US dollar and the strengthening of the euro. The
adjusted earnings per share growth when expressed in sterling will be a little
lower, whereas the adjusted eps growth when expressed in euros is expected to be
eliminated. (Adjusted eps is stated before amortisation of goodwill and
intangible assets and exceptional items.)
Reed Elsevier's markets continue to be challenged by late cycle effects of the
difficult economic conditions experienced over the last three years. Further,
the US education market is expected to decline next year, as it reaches the low
point in the state textbook adoption cycle combined with continuing state budget
pressures. Despite this overall low market growth environment, Reed Elsevier is
giving priority to significantly increased investment in 2004 behind new product
and market initiatives to ensure strong long term revenue growth. Reed Elsevier
is therefore targeting mid to high single digit growth in adjusted earnings per
share at constant currencies for 2004. Improving revenue growth combined with
continued cost efficiency is clearly targeted to deliver double digit earnings
growth for 2005 and beyond.
A broadly based economic recovery can be expected to benefit Reed Elsevier's
business publishing operations first amongst its businesses, but, after three
years of tight management through the unprecedented downturn, no rebound in its
markets is being forecast until any such rebound takes hold.
2003 Business Performance
The performance trends in Reed Elsevier's businesses are as follows:
Elsevier continues to perform well with sales growth accelerating in the second
half with a strong medical book publishing programme and the continuing success
of ScienceDirect. In the Science & Technology business, against a background of
considerable pressure on institutional budgets, good growth is being achieved
through sales of electronic journal products, including back files and subject
collections, although there has been some softness in software sales to the
pharmaceutical sector. Subscription renewals remain strong and usage of
ScienceDirect has doubled versus a year ago. ScienceDirect now has 5 million
research articles. In Health Sciences, book sales are seeing good growth with a
strong publishing programme and increased demand from the healthcare
professions. Medical journals are also growing well with strong advertising
sales and other commercial revenues.
LexisNexis has continued to perform satisfactorily in markets that are seeing
limited growth due to the effects of the economic slowdown on customers.
Investments in content, new product features and online services are stimulating
revenue growth. In US legal markets, LexisNexis continues the positive revenue
momentum seen in the first half and is expected to perform ahead of the market.
In corporate and federal markets, as in the first half, strong growth in risk
solutions is compensating for the weaker market in corporate business
information. The LexisNexis international businesses are performing
satisfactorily, with significant investment in new products and strongly growing
online sales. The recent acquisitions of the Dolan Media risk management
business and Applied Discovery are performing well and are being integrated
within the business.
Harcourt Education has had a relatively stronger second half in markets that
have continued to be affected by funding pressures and, in the US, by a weak
adoption calendar. The Harcourt US K-12 schools business is expected once again
to take a leading share of available state adoption revenues. Growth in
backlist sales and in open territories has also been good. Overall revenues
have however been held back by weakness in the supplemental business ahead of
new publishing that addresses federally funded programmes, and the previously
announced loss of the California state testing contract. Harcourt Assessment
is, however, performing well in continuing business, with strong new publishing
and significant state testing contract wins, which will benefit 2004. Outside
the US, Harcourt International has continued to be held back by the hiatus this
year in UK schools funding.
Reed Business has continued to face difficult advertising markets and, although
there has been a slowdown in the rate of decline in the US and the UK, a real
recovery has yet to be seen. Reed Business has continued to focus successfully
on building market share, improving yields and managing costs. Advertising
volumes have shown further declines overall, particularly in continental Europe;
these have not been fully compensated by strongly growing online sales (now
representing approximately 10% of the business) and further market share gains
and improving yields. In the US, the entertainment sector is performing well,
however, industrial sectors, such as manufacturing and electronics, remain
depressed. In the UK, whilst some stabilisation in recruitment advertising is
emerging, display markets are still weak. Continental European advertising
markets continue to decline, particularly in the Netherlands where the economy
is very depressed. Reed Exhibitions remains resilient in difficult markets
although revenues will be lower this year due to the net cycling out of
non-annual shows.
Outlook
Turning to the outlook for 2004, Reed Elsevier has taken the decision, against a
difficult market background, to expand its investment programme by more than $50
million to help ensure accelerated longer term revenue growth. It is,
therefore, targeting mid to high single digit adjusted earnings per share growth
at constant currencies in 2004, and above market revenue growth. Reed Elsevier
expects to deliver on its long term targets of above market revenue growth and
double digit adjusted eps growth in 2005 and beyond as its markets benefit from
improved economic conditions and the US schools adoption calendar recovers.
Elsevier should again perform well next year. The 2004 subscription renewals
process is progressing satisfactorily, driven by the strength of the products
and the greater utility of ScienceDirect. The Health Sciences books programme
is expected, again, to go well. Further cost efficiencies will help fund
substantial increased investment in online products and new navigational
services.
There has been much written recently on scientific journal business models. We
remain firmly of the view that, whilst the market will always accommodate a
variety of different initiatives and funding approaches, subscription based
journal publishing is the most effective and efficient way to deliver to
researchers a huge volume of high quality, peer reviewed research through
increasingly sophisticated online delivery and navigational tools that require
substantial investment.
LexisNexis is expected to have another satisfactory year in 2004, despite no
overall improvement in its markets being anticipated. Growth will be helped by
further development of online research services and from the investments made in
faster growing contiguous markets, such as in risk management and legal tools
beyond core research. 2004 will see further major product initiatives across
all markets including the roll out of the new global online delivery platform in
a number of countries.
Harcourt Education is expected to have a broadly flat year in 2004, which sees
the last year and low point in a three year trough in the adoptions cycle
combined with continuing state budget pressures. Harcourt expects to perform
well in the new 2004 adoptions. 2005 and 2006 should see significant market
growth given the much stronger adoption calendar and Harcourt should be well
placed to perform strongly. The Assessment business will benefit from
significant recent wins of state educational testing contracts and the
International business is expected to recover from the exceptional schools
funding constraints seen in the UK this year. Harcourt is continuing to expand
investment in emerging e-learning opportunities, most particularly in classroom
based interim assessment.
Reed Business is not budgeting for any real recovery in its markets in 2004 and
continues to take cost actions to protect margins whilst increasing investment
in online services. Further share growth, yield improvement and good growth in
online sales are targeted; however, these are not expected to fully offset year
on year decline in advertising volumes, particularly in continental Europe.
Some growth is expected in the exhibitions business, principally from the net
cycling in of non-annual shows.
Although Reed Business is not yet budgeting for any real upturn in its markets,
if an economic recovery really does take hold and becomes more broadly based,
then Reed Business should recover quickly, most immediately in its advertising
revenues. Given the dramatic improvements made in operational efficiency over
the last three years, the flow through to increased profitability will be
strong.
The Reed Elsevier Preliminary Statement on the 2003 financial year will be
issued on 19 February 2004.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange