Operation/Exploration Update
Roc Oil Company Limited
27 September 2005
Roc Oil Company Limited
Level 14
1 Market St
Sydney NSW 2000
Date of lodgement: 27-Sept-2005
Title: Open Briefing. Roc Oil. Operations & Exploration Update
Record of interview:
corporatefile.com.au
Roc Oil Company Limited is currently developing four fields, appraising another
four fields and exploring aggressively. In the context of higher oil prices
and higher industry costs, what is the current budget situation at the Cliff
Head Oil Field Development Project offshore Western Australia?
CEO John Doran
Cliff Head development costs are still on track to meet the budget of A$227
million. ROC and its co-venturers took their cost medicine relatively early
when we announced that the development budget had increased to A$227 million at
the beginning of the year. Since then there has been no change in the firm
cost estimate. The reasons for the increase in early 2005 were broadly similar
to those that have subsequently caused an increase in the cost of other
development projects around the world, including Chinguetti: mainly the cost of
services and materials has increased.
Perhaps, the only other thing to mention in relation to Cliff Head is that the
Joint Venture is actively considering expanding the scope of the project in a
manner which would allow it to recover more oil from the field than was
previously anticipated. If this scenario makes economic sense we will
collectively choose to increase the gross budget by around A$13 million in
order to extract about one million more barrels of oil than would otherwise be
recovered; currently those barrels are not included in the field's proved and
probable reserves. Obviously this increase in scope and budget would only
occur if it provided the Joint Venture with a net economic gain.
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Woodside recently announced a cost increase at the Chinguetti Oil Field
Development project, offshore Mauritania. How serious is this?
CEO John Doran
It's not material to ROC. Given the hypothetical choice, ROC would prefer to
be dealing with Chinguetti's current budget expectation and today's oil price
rather than the original budget estimate and the oil price that prevailed at
the time the Joint Venture approved the development
The project is now estimated to cost up to US$750 million including various
contingencies. That compares to the most recent previous estimate of about
US$687 million: a 9% increase or US$2 million net to ROC. It's not that we're
blase about cost overruns. Like every other company we hate cost overruns. At
the moment, however, the reality of the oil business is that most field
development projects around the world are coming in higher than their original
budget forecast as the cost of materials and services increase due to a
somewhat delayed response to the rise in oil prices. In our opinion the
biggest problem facing the industry is not, as many might claim, a shortage of
skilled people, as much as rising costs. When viewed within a global context,
including world oil prices, the latest cost increase at Chinguetti, although
regrettable, is not serious.
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And what about the other fields that the Woodside-led Mauritanian Joint Venture
has talked about developing?
CEO John Doran
Tiof, the largest field discovered in the region to date, in terms of in-place
oil, is geologically more complex than Chinguetti and is spread out over a much
bigger area. These two factors mean that before any serious thought can be
given to developing Tiof more appraisal studies need to be done. ROC doesn't
carry any reserves for the field nor a forecast for when first production might
be achieved. The bottom line with Tiof is that the Operator is actively
studying the data and we don't expect to have a better view of the commercial
potential of the field for another month or two. Any comment on the potential
development and production of Tiof before this current study has been completed
would be premature.
The other fields in Mauritania are very different in detail from Tiof, but they
are all at a broadly similar stage: they are being actively appraised and
their commercial potential is being reviewed. Banda is certainly a large gas
field with commercial potential, albeit in the medium to longer term. Tevet is
a smaller oil field, but could perhaps be tied into Chinguetti subject to the
final results of the exploration appraisal well that is currently being drilled.
At the moment, the Pelican Gas Field in Dana Petroleum-operated Block 7, in the
northern part of offshore Mauritania, is not considered to be commercial, but
it certainly sends the signal that significant hydrocarbons are to be found in
areas that are far removed from Chinguetti.
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How are Chinguetti and Cliff Head travelling in a timeline sense?
CEO John Doran
Both are progressing reasonably well. Both are still currently on schedule to
deliver first oil during the first quarter 2006, consistent with our forecasts.
At the moment it's impossible to say exactly when first oil will flow because
although Chinguetti is approximately 90% complete and Cliff Head about 55%
complete in terms of the non-drilling components of the development project,
risk does not diminish in proportion to a project's progress. When you are
developing offshore oil fields the development risk never goes away until the
oil flows - and then you move straight into the world of production risk but,
of course, you also produce a large amount of cash flow in the process!
corporatefile.com.au
Cliff Head has emerged from your exploration portfolio as an important project
for ROC. What do you now consider as ROC's core assets? Can you summarise the
production potential from these areas?
CEO John Doran
ROC has four core areas: UK, West Africa, Australasia and China. Our continued
aim is to high grade the most prospective parts of these areas in order to add
value to the portfolio. This is a decidedly organic process. In the last couple
of years the results of our exploration and/or appraisal efforts and studies
have moved four fields to the top of the development agenda: Chinguetti, Cliff
Head, Blane and Enoch - the last two are North Sea fields scheduled to come onto
production during the second half of 2006. These are key areas for ROC's future
production potential.
Beyond those four fields, and without reference to the high risk - high reward
wells referred to earlier, the area which currently seems to have the potential
to emerge as a very significant part of ROC's global portfolio is Angola where
we are currently acquiring seismic in order to define prospects in the Lower
Congo Basin which is, widely acknowledged as one of the great oil provinces of
the world.
corporatefile.com.au
Can you summarise ROC's planned exploration and appraisal drilling programme
over the next few months?
CEO John Doran
ROC expects to drill up to 11 exploration and appraisal wells during the next
six months, subject to rig availability which is becoming an increasing
challenge for virtually every oil company in the world.
ROC's identified key wells include : Jacala-1 (January 2005) in the deep water
Carnarvon Basin, offshore Western Australia; Willows-1 (January-February 2005),
onshore UK and Aleta-1, which ROC will operate in deep water offshore Equatorial
Guinea as soon as a suitable rig is identified. All these wells fit into the
high risk - very high reward category; success with any one of them would
substantially increase the value of the Company.
The balance of the drilling programme will target more modest, but potentially
significant prospects. Offshore Mauritania we're currently drilling the Tevet-2
exploration/appraisal well which will be followed by at least three more
exploration wells in that region. We also have several exploration wells
scheduled for the offshore Perth Basin starting with Flying Foam (October-
November 2005) some 230 km north of the Cliff Head Oil Field. That should be
followed immediately by either Thornhill-1 or Franklin-1 with the exact choice
being subject to an imminent Joint Venture decision. Thornhill-1 is 2 km
northeast of the Cliff Head Field and would test a culmination up dip from the
Mentelle-1 well which was drilled in 2003 and had oil shows in tight sands.
Franklin-1 is 25 km north of Cliff Head and has a potential reserve capacity in
the order of 20 to 40 MMBO. The second phase of the offshore Perth Basin
exploration drilling programme will be woven around the development drilling
activities at Cliff Head which are expected to start in November 2005 and run
through until March 2006. This later exploration phase will probably see three
additional exploration/appraisal wells drilled in the area starting in March
2006 and continuing into the second quarter.
Elsewhere, in early 2006, ROC is planning to drill an exploration well in the
Beibu Gulf offshore China and a well in the onshore Taranaki Basin in New
Zealand, although, in both these cases, it's proving difficult to contract a
suitable rig at a reasonable rate.
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How will ROC fund this drilling programme?
CEO John Doran
The entire exploration drilling programme - along with the Cliff Head and
Chinguetti development projects - can be funded internally. This is primarily
because of the sale of the Saltfleetby Gas Field in December 2004 and the
proceeds of a Rights Issue in April-May 2004 undertaken at A$1.40/share.
Although numerous wells are planned for the drilling programme, the overall net
cost to ROC is less than might be expected. This is due to a combination of
farmout and the small to modest equity positions ROC has in the deep water wells
offshore Africa. The total net cost to ROC of the programme over the next six
months may range up towards A$30 million if all 11 wells are drilled.
We recently announced that we are in discussions with regard to the
establishment of a US$60 million loan facility. Although we don't expect to
significantly draw down on the facility in the immediate future, we see it as a
sensible way of managing our balance sheet.
The single most expensive exploration well in terms of gross costs is likely to
be the Aleta-1 wildcat in deep water offshore Equatorial Guinea which will test
a deep Cretaceous play. Fortunately, ROC is only required to contribute 3.75%
to the cost of that well because out of our 18.75% interest in the permit 15%
is free carried through the well as a result of a 2004 farmout. We won't know
the exact cost of the Aleta well until we contract a rig, but its free carry
means that ROC's share of the cost will be easily managed.
In a more general sense, the gross cost of exploration wells offshore Mauritania
usually range from US$5 million to US$15 million. Because ROC's interest in
these wells is between 2% and 5% they too can be readily funded from our cash
balance.
In the offshore Perth Basin exploration wells are less expensive, generally
ranging from A$3 million to A$7 million. Therefore, although ROC's equity in
these wells is usually in the 20% to 37.5% range, the net cost to ROC is still
quite palatable. The mid to higher end of this cost range is roughly equivalent
to the cost of a well offshore China where ROC has a 40% contributing interest.
Even when you own the rig, drilling onshore UK can be relatively expensive -
particularly when you also own 100% of the permit. Therefore, Willows-1 is
likely to be the most expensive exploration well in terms of ROC's net
expenditure at around US$5 million.
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How does the Willows prospect onshore UK compare with the Saltfleetby Gas Field?
CEO John Doran
We're targeting a trap which has the capacity to contain 50 to 100 BCF of gas.
In that sense, the prospect could be compared broadly to Saltfleetby which s
tarted out with a reserve estimate of 43 BCF, but ended up with reserves of 90
BCF. Geologically, Willows is quite different from Saltfleetby; because it's a
partial stratigraphic trap involving very high quality reservoir sands in the
Rotliegendes, a well established reservoir in the southern North Sea. Willows
has been on our books for quite some time, but we couldn't advance it in the
drilling sequence until we had secured access to the surface rights. We've now
done that and we're preparing to start the well early next year.
corporatefile.com.au
You previously raised the possibility of using fracture stimulation on some
tight gas fields onshore UK. What's the status with that evaluation?
CEO John Doran
Over the last six months we've been taking a closer look at our onshore assets
in the UK, particularly in the light of progress we're making elsewhere in our
portfolio, including places such as Angola. As a result, the most we would
expect to consider doing, apart from drilling Willows-1 in the foreseeable
uture - and this isn't definite yet - is fraccing the Cloughton-1 gas discovery,
which is in the same permit as Willows. Even if we do that it will probably
not be until the middle or later part of next year at the earliest because
Willow-1 will satisfy the relevant permit work commitment for some considerable
time. The basic trend is that our potential tight gas activity onshore UK is
becoming subordinate to our pure exploration activities in, for example, Angola.
It's all a matter of priorities and where best to deploy discretionary
expenditure as we keep upgrading our portfolio.
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Over in China you're undertaking a pre-development study of the offshore
Wei-12-8 West Field. Can you reiterate your exploration strategy in China?
Why are you continuing to explore when several discoveries have been made, but
none have been clearly commercial?
CEO John Doran
ROC's situation offshore China is simple - what happens depends on getting a
commercially satisfactory result from our discussions with the regional
subsidiary of the China National Offshore Oil Corporation ('CNOOC'), one of the
three large oil companies owned by the Chinese Government. These discussions
relate to the potential development of the Wei-12-8 West Field via existing
facilities owned by CNOOC's subsidiary. If we can agree terms that will allow
us to access the infrastructure on a commercially acceptable basis we would move
to develop the field. If we can't agree acceptable access terms then there
really is no way that we can develop the Wei-12-8 West field unless we have more
exploration success in the block.
ROC's exploration strategy in China has remained unchanged since we first went
into that country in 2002. We want to identify and hopefully develop individual
fields that, although perhaps modest in size, could be collectively significant
to ROC. So far, results have been mixed. We've discovered one small field and
confirmed a significant amount of viscous in-place oil in another field which is
being actively reviewed in the light of the strong oil prices. More recently
we've identified some additional exploration plays near our 2002 oil discovery,
one of which was originally scheduled for drilling in October, but has slipped
to first quarter 2006 because we've had difficulties contracting a suitable rig
at a reasonable price.
corporatefile.com.au
Just on Angola - it has a relatively low profile within your portfolio at the
moment, but it seems you're increasingly optimistic about your activities there.
Could you bring us up to date?
CEO John Doran
Prior to activating the pre-agreed Production Sharing Contract we deliberately
took some time to get to know our onshore block in Angola where we have a 60%
interest and Operatorship.
In June 2005, we started a large 2D and 3D seismic programme which is scheduled
to be completed in October or November this year, subject to the onset of the
wet season. At the moment, we're satisfied with the survey's progress and if it
continues like this we should end up with about 550 km of 2D data and 160 sq km
of 3D data, the quality of which, as far as we can tell from the early test
results, will be good to excellent.
Not only is this seismic activity a very important corporate milestone for ROC,
but it also represents the return of exploration activity to onshore Angola
after an absence of more than 30 years. We're the only publicly-listed company
actively exploring on the ground in Angola and we consider ourselves privileged
to be there.
corporatefile.com.au
Thank you John.
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For further information on ROC please visit www.rocoil.com.au or call John Doran
on +61 (0)2 8356 2000.
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