Final Results
Ruffer Investment Company Limited
27 September 2007
RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED
Chairman's Review
For the year ended 30 June 2007
Performance
The Company's investment portfolio earned a negative total return of 0.6% in the
year to 30 June 2007. This is calculated after all expenses of management and
allowing for the payment of dividends totalling 1.75p per share. The objective
rate of return - twice the time weighted Bank of England base rate - for the
year was 9.7%. Further details are given on page 9 of the Annual Report.
Earnings and Dividend
Earnings for the year were 2.54p per share on revenue account partially
offsetting a loss, including unrealized losses, of 3.32p per share on capital
account. In the course of the year dividends totalling 1.75p per share were paid
(of which 0.5p was in respect of the year to 30 June 2006). A final dividend of
1.25p per share in respect of the year to 30 June 2007 was approved on September
18th and will be paid on October 12th 2007.
Share Price
In the first seven months of the year to 30 June 2007 the shares moved from a
premium of over 6% above Net Asset Value (NAV) at the beginning of the period to
a discount of 4% towards the end. In the last five months of the year the
discount on NAV remained at around 4%.
Annual General Meeting
The AGM of the Company will be held at 10.30 a.m. on Thursday November 8th at
the Company's registered office at Trafalgar Court, Les Banques, St Peter Port,
Guernsey
Share Buyback Authority
With the shares trading at a discount of around 3% on NAV at September 18th, the
Board has resolved to seek, at the AGM on November 8th, renewal of its authority
to buy back shares in the terms stated in Special Resolution No. 2. No shares
have been bought back under the existing authorisation granted at the previous
AGM on October 30th 2006.
Share Redemption Facility
The Company has a Redemption Facility operable in November of each year. This is
described on page 22 of the Report and Accounts. The directors will advise
shareholders by separate letter if, and on what scale, they intend to make it
available in November 2007.
Continuation Vote on Company
Under the Company's Articles there is the requirement that shareholders vote on
the future of the Company after its operation for 3 years. This is therefore the
subject of Special Resolution No. 3 at the forthcoming AGM. The directors
recommend shareholders vote in favour of the Company continuing as an investment
company because the investment managers' ability to earn a positive return in
turbulent economic times is proven.
John de Havilland
Chairman
September 26th 2007.
Investment Manager's Report
For the year ended 30 June 2007
Investment Objective
The principal objective of the Company is to achieve a positive total annual
return, after all expenses, of at least twice the Bank of England base rate
(5.50 per cent as at 30 June 2007) by investing in internationally listed or
quoted equities or equity related securities (including convertibles) and/or
bonds which are issued by corporate issuers, supra-nationals or government
organisations.
Investment Review
In the twelve month period from 1 July 2006 to 30 June 2007 the Total Return
fell 0.6% (net of fees and expenses and inclusive of a 1.75p dividend), compared
to the objective return of 9.7%, being twice the time weighted Bank of England
base rate over the period. This is a wretched outcome.
Since launch on July 8 2004 the Total Return, including dividends, has risen by
22%.
A manager's review of such performance is normally backward looking, covering
mainly the events which have happened over the relevant period, with an
explanation and clarification in the light of these developments. However, this
report, written in the first days of September, is forward looking, since this
is the key to understanding recent performance, the dispositions within the
investment trust, and the thinking behind them.
The events which unfolded from the end of July have given investors a real
fright. The unfolding dislocation centred around the shortfalls in the
structured product market has played out almost exactly as we feared. Only the
mono line insurers, which looked to us like an accident waiting to happen, have
not yet been identified as a major health hazard in the financial markets.
Nevertheless, we feel that we have not been vindicated. We might add sotto voce,
not yet - but the important part of the observation is that, at the time of
writing, the real trouble still lies ahead.
Central banks have been commendably alert, pumping in over $100 billion and
facilitating bail outs where necessary. The early dislocations have been dealt
with, and the full weight of the Federal Reserve stands ready to put order back
into markets made disorderly in the case of future shocks. One must not
underestimate this good work; the possibility of a vicious circle arising from
that initial shock was a real one. The central banks will not do so well in the
next phase of the dislocation, not from a lack of care or skill, but because the
next phase will show that we are dealing with a credit crisis, not a liquidity
crisis. In the early stages the two are hard to tell apart. Banks are
carnivorous - they make their living by putting their money at risk. They have
every incentive to put aside their fears and re-engage. But depositors are not
carnivorous - they are the herbivores of the financial food chain. They seek,
above all, safety and take whatever returns the market place offers. They never
seek risk; indeed, try to shun it but every so often they are seduced into
taking a risk which they did not fully understand, or appreciate. Who are
today's depositors? No longer is it only the classical banks who make the loans
- the banking industry has mutated into investment banking and learned to thrive
by acting as investment principal and by fees, much more than by lending. And
the role of lender has passed to the originators' securitised debt - the loans
are now owned by investors, not bankers. Who are those investors? Conservative,
yield hungry investors - pension funds, insurance companies, government agencies
for 'senior' securitised paper, and risk-averse investors in fund of hedge funds
for the 'junior' stuff.
The events of mid-August have shattered the illusions; the early indicator was
the Bear Stearns fund ($3.2 billion), which after 41 unbroken 'up' months,
promptly announced it was worth only a few cents on the dollar. Two terrible
days in the market - 10 August and 16 August have been enough to persuade these
'new' depositors that it's a mug's game to chase a small extra income at the
hazard of the capital value. And, as herbivores do, they have stampeded in the
opposite direction - with the inevitable consequences that vast swathes of
perfectly safe commercial paper find no buyers today.
This is the battleground. The optimists see dislocation increasingly contained,
and against a backcloth of a sound economy, bargain hunters are returning to the
fray. 12 August was, by coincidence, the 25th anniversary of the start of Wall
Street's run (the Dow Jones was 776 then!). Buying the dips has been right every
single time for the last quarter century, so one doesn't need to be especially
brave to do it again. But they forget the nature of the herbivore. Why should he
return to securitised debt? He has now discovered that the AAA he owned wasn't
the 'Simon says' variety, and is risky. He doesn't want risk. The optimists are
looking at the wrong thing in the strength of the economy, which is an
essentially backward looking exercise: admiring the firm physique of the
followers of the Mahdi as they mass to greet the clickety clack of the Maxim
gun. The photographs of queues of depositors at Northern Rock clamouring for
their money back is a part of the pattern: a widespread loss of confidence which
may or may not have been justified. Who cares? Why take the risk?
It is what happens from now on which will determine whether our analysis is
sound.
Ruffer LLP
5th September 2007
Company Performance
Price Change in
at 30.06.07 Buying Price
Buying Selling From From
Price Price Launch 30.06.06
£ £ % %
Shares 1.128 1.115 + 12.80 -11.18
Prices are published in the Financial Times in the 'Investment Companies' section, and in
the Daily Telegraph's 'Share Prices & Market Capitalisations' section under 'Investment
Trusts'.
Fund Size
Net Asset Net Asset Number of Shares
Value Value per In Issue
Share
£ £
30.06.07 123,690,774 1.166* 106,117,074
30.06.06 126,375,613 1.191 106,117,074
30.06.05 55,935,077 1.119 50,000,000
* Value reported to the London Stock Exchange was 1.167 using mid market values. Bid prices
are presented as fair value in the Financial Statements.
Share Price Range
Highest Shares Lowest
Accounting Buying Price Selling Price
Period to: £ £
30.06.07 1.260 1.110
30.06.06 1.300 1.120
30.06.05 1.140 1.000
Net Asset Value Range
Highest Shares Lowest
Accounting NAV NAV
Period to: £ £
30.06.07 1.211 1.166
30.06.06 1.234 1.122
30.06.05 1.122 0.976
Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of the shares and the income from
them can go down as well as go up and you may not get back the amount originally invested.
Because of this, you are not certain to make a profit on your investment and you may lose
money.
Top Ten Holdings
Market % of
Holding at Value Total Net
Stock name Currency 30.06.07 £ Assets
Treasury 4% 07/03/2009 GBP 11,300,000 10,984,617 8.88
Austria 3% 21/08/2009 CHF 24,750,000 10,039,975 8.12
Switzerland 3 1/2% 08/04/2033 CHF 16,800,000 6,849,174 5.54
Treasury 4 3/4% 07/06/2010 GBP 7,000,000 6,802,530 5.50
Norway 5 1/2% 15/05/2009 NOK 80,000,000 6,767,140 5.47
Norway 6% 16/05/2011 NOK 70,000,000 6,054,747 4.90
Switzerland 4% 08/04/2028 CHF 12,240,000 5,424,523 4.39
Switzerland 1 3/4% 05/11/2009 CHF 13,100,000 5,192,623 4.20
Treasury 5 3/4% 07/12/2009 GBP 4,250,000 4,245,283 3.43
Unilever GBP 200,000 3,226,000 2.61
Balance Sheet
30.06.07 30.06.06
£ £
ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents 346,711 6,190,457
Receivables 824,796 1,483,682
Financial assets at fair value through profit 123,074,306 119,449,349
or loss
Total Assets 124,245,813 127,123,488
EQUITY
Capital and reserves attributable
to the Company's shareholders
Management share capital 2 2
Net assets attributable to holders of
redeemable participating preference shares 123,690,774 126,375,613
Total Equity 123,690,776 126,375,615
LIABILITIES
Payables 555,037 747,873
Total Liabilities 555,037 747,873
Total Equity and Liabilities 124,245,813 127,123,488
Net assets attributable to holders of
redeemable participating preference shares 1.166 1.191
(per share)
Statement of Operations
01.07.06 to 01.07.05 to
30.06.07 30.06.06
Revenue Capital Total Total
£ £ £ £
Bank interest income 41,146 - 41,146 381,418
Fixed interest income 2,936,037 - 2,936,037 2,054,836
Dividend income 667,676 - 667,676 631,541
Net (losses)/gains on financial
assets at fair value through profit
or loss - (2,293,821) (2,293,821) 3,479,996
Other (losses)/gains - (118,526) (118,526) 263,577
Total investment income/ 3,644,859 (2,412,347) 1,232,512 6,811,368
(loss)
Management fees (315,551) (946,650) (1,262,201) (1,096,691)
Expenses (392,903) (161,039) (553,942) (901,905)
Total operating expenses (708,454) (1,107,689) (1,816,143) (1,998,596)
Operating profit/(loss) before 2,936,405 (3,520,036) (583,631) 4,812,772
taxation
Withholding tax (244,159) - (244,159) (28,113)
Operating profit/(loss) after
taxation and increase/(decrease)
in net assets attributable to
holders of redeemable
participating preference shares 2,692,246 (3,520,036) (827,790) 4,784,659
Basic and diluted earnings per 2.54p -3.32p -0.78p 5.18p
share *
* Basic and diluted earnings per share are calculated by dividing the operating profit/
(loss) after taxation and increase/(decrease) in net assets attributable to holders of
redeemable participating preference shares by the weighted average number of redeemable
participating preference shares. The weighted average number of shares for the period is
106,117,074.
Statement of Changes in Equity
01.07.06 to 01.07.05 to
30.06.07 30.06.06
£ £
Net assets attributable to holders of
redeemable participating preference shares at
the start of the year 126,375,613 55,935,077
Movement due to issues and redemptions of shares:
Proceeds from redeemable participating
preference shares issued - 66,436,462
Net increase from share transactions - 66,436,462
(Decrease)/increase in net assets attributable to
holders of redeemable participating preference (827,790) 4,784,659
shares from operations
Distributions to holders of redeemable
participating preference shares (1,857,049) (780,585)
(Decrease)/increase in net assets attributable to
holders of redeemable participating preference
shares from operations (after distributions) (2,684,839) 4,004,074
Net assets attributable to holders of
redeemable participating preference shares at the 123,690,774 126,375,613
end of the year
Cash Flow Statement
01.07.06 to 01.07.05 to
30.06.07 30.06.06
£ £
Cash flows from operating activities
Purchase of financial assets and settlement of (37,198,127) (104,059,163)
financial liabilities
Proceeds from sale of investments (including 31,853,203 43,077,487
realised gains)
Transaction costs (161,039) (180,098)
Bank interest received 62,092 355,866
Fixed interest income received 3,016,663 1,633,111
Dividends received 652,367 612,075
Withholding tax (244,159) (28,113)
Operating expenses paid (1,849,171) (1,388,886)
Foreign exchange loss (118,526) -
Net cash utilised in operating activities (3,986,697) (59,977,721)
Cash flows from financing activities
Dividends paid (1,857,049) (780,585)
Proceeds from issue of 'C' shares - 67,500,000
Issue expenses relating to issue of 'C' - (1,044,548)
shares
Net cash flow from financing activities (1,857,049) 65,674,867
Net (decrease)/increase in cash and cash (5,843,746) 5,697,146
equivalents
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of 6,190,457 138,396
the year
Exchange gains on cash and cash equivalents - 354,915
Cash and cash equivalents at end of the year 346,711 6,190,457
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange