Interim Results
Ruffer Investment Company Limited
16 March 2007
RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED
Investment Manager's Report
For the period ended 31 December 2006
Investment Objective
The principal objective of the Company is to achieve a positive total annual
return, after all expenses, of at least twice the Bank of England base rate (5
per cent as at 31 December 2006) by investing in internationally listed or
quoted equities or equity related securities (including convertibles) and bonds
which are issued by corporate issuers, supra-nationals or government
organisations.
Investment Review
The last six months have seen the asset value of the portfolio rise slightly in
capital terms (from 119.4p to 119.6p) which, together with the dividend of 0.5p
which was paid on 13 October 2006, represents a total half-year return of 0.6%.
This is the second disappointing semi-annual figure; the Investment Manager's
report six months ago reflected a full year return of 9.0%, but the majority of
that was in the latter half of 2005. The annual return for the calendar year
2006 did not even match that of a cash return, let alone the targeted aspiration
of twice that level.
During the last six months Sterling rose by 9.4% against the Yen, 5.6% against
the Norwegian Krone and 5.2% against the Swiss Franc. Given that half of the
portfolio has been invested in these three currencies, this created a
significant headwind for the Fund.
During the period Sterling's trade weighted value has risen and while we would
for choice think that Sterling would be a weak currency, the investments we have
made were not based on the thought of Sterling weakness. The question which
preoccupies our thoughts is that we are in the midst of an asset price boom
engineered through the unprecedented opportunities to borrow money at a rate
below the natural level to keep borrowers and lenders in balance. Although
interest rates have been rising in the West for some months, credit spreads have
narrowed, which means that the ability to fund purchases in a leveraged way has
continued uninterruptedly. Stock market commentators have underestimated the
strength of this phenomenon, because the stock market is not at the heart of the
bubble in the way that it was in the 'dot-com boom' of 1999. Today it is the
property market, the sub-prime fixed interest market, and infrastructure plays
which are the targets: it is true that the first and last of these are
represented in the stock market, but they are not central to it. It is certainly
the reason why the mid-cap stocks have been strong, and why the very large
market capitalisations have been, in comparative terms, left behind. Financial
dislocations are the oldest court card in the pack. They always come about from
the same confluence of events - a long period of benign asset price rises which
persuades investors that they are flecked with genius, coupled with the ability
to borrow a lot of money so that their genius can be reflected on the widest of
canvasses. The result is, almost literally, a Jackson Pollock - not cockney
rhyming slang, but an entity of great value to the cognoscenti, but not
necessarily to the average man who has not shared in the prescience of an early
arrival at the investment ball. The end of the benign period always ends
seemingly without warning, and for no apparent reason. The result is, again,
always the same: a time of widespread wealth destruction and discontinuous
markets. The combination of these two make it difficult to be sure that any
asset class will easily ride happily through the storm. The very lack of
liquidity in so many previously 'open' markets means that sound investments are
sold, simply to provide liquidity which always becomes desirable in difficult
times.
These conditions are notoriously difficult to invest in, but currencies are one
of the most effective ways of so doing. For one thing, they are a zero sum game.
For another, they are at the centre of the carry trade whereby speculators who
are taking on big levels of debt can reduce their servicing costs (the rates of
interest on Swiss Francs and Yen are much lower than those obtaining on the
Dollar or Sterling). A reversal of this carry trade could well make significant
capital gains on the currencies, and if these are held through the dislocation,
they could be a fine source of performance for the Fund. The opportunity is also
the reason for the problem: while we wait, the carry trade barrels on, and these
investments in fear, far from being a lost opportunity for making money on the
bull tack, become a source of attrition of value. That attrition may be slow,
but it is an uphill task for the investments in greed to make headway while it
is happening.
Investment Outlook
At the risk of sounding like General Foch, who reported that his centre flank
was giving way, his right flank was in retreat, but the situation was excellent
and he would sound the advance, we remain confident that the risk/reward in this
portfolio is attractive. We further assert that the portfolio is well positioned
for the dangers that we see ahead; we await the future with nervous confidence.
Ruffer LLP
13 February 2007
Company Performance
Price at 31.12.2006 Change in Buying Price
Buying Selling From From
Price Price Launch 30.06.05
£ £ % %
Shares 1.190 1.185 +19.00 -6.30
Prices are published in the Financial Times in the 'Investment Companies'
section, and in the Daily Telegraph's 'Share Prices & Market Capitalisations'
section under 'Investment Trusts'.
Fund Size
Net Asset Net Asset Number of Shares in
Value Value per Share Issue
£ £
01.07.2006 to 31.12.2006 126,638,547 1.193 * 106,117,074
30.06.2006 126,375,613 1.191 106,117,074
30.06.2005 55,935,077 1.119 50,000,000
* Value reported to the London Stock Exchange was 1.196 using mid market values.
Bid prices are presented as fair value in the Financial Statements.
Share Price Range
Accounting Period to: Highest Shares Lowest
Buying Price Selling Price
£ £
01.07.2006 to 31.12.2006 1.260 1.165
30.06.2006 1.300 1.120
30.06.2005 1.140 1.000
Net Asset Value Range
Accounting Period to: Highest Shares Lowest
NAV NAV
£ £
01.07.2006 to 31.12.2006 1.209 1.173
30.06.2006 1.234 0.122
30.06.2005 1.122 0.976
Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of the shares and the
income from them can go down as well as go up and you may not get back the
amount originally invested. Because of this, you are not certain to make a
profit on your investment and you may lose money.
Top Ten Holdings
Stock name Currency Holding at Market % of
31.12.06 Value Total
Net
£ Assets
Treasury 4% 07/03/2009 GBP 11,300,000 11,030,947 8.71
Austria 3% 21/08/2009 CHF 24,750,000 10,499,433 8.29
Switzerland (Govt.) 3 1/2% CHF 16,800,000 8,332,869 6.58
08/04/2033
Treasury 5 3/4% 07/12/2009 GBP 7,250,000 7,366,747 5.82
Treasury 4 3/4% 07/06/2010 GBP 7,000,000 6,922,230 5.46
Norway 5 1/2% 15/05/2009 NOK 80,000,000 6,724,492 5.31
Switzerland (Govt.) 4% 08/04/2028 CHF 12,240,000 6,340,062 5.01
Norway 6% 16/05/20011 NOK 70,000,000 6,104,513 4.82
Switzerland (Govt.) 1 3/4% CHF 6,400,000 3,773,358 2.96
05/11/2009
Treasury 2 1/2% Index Linked GBP 1,500,000 4,053,915 3.20
23/08/2011
Balance Sheet
31.12.06 31.12.05 30.06.06
£ £ £
ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents 192,784 6,479,022 6,190,457
Receivables 1,257,005 1,521,101 1,483,682
Financial assets at fair value
through profit or loss 125,654,273 120,241,000 119,449,349
Total Assets 127,104,062 128,241,123 127,123,488
EQUITY
Capital and reserves attributable
to the Company's shareholders
Management share capital 2 2 2
Net assets attributable to holders
of redeemable participating
preference shares 126,638,547 127,717,620 126,375,613
Total Equity 126,638,549 127,717,622 126,375,615
LIABILITIES
Payables 465,513 523,501 747,873
Total Liabilities 465,513 523,501 747,873
Total Equity and Liabilities 127,104,062 128,241,123 127,123,488
Net assets attributable to holders
of redeemable participating
preference shares (per share) 1.193 1.204 1.191
Statement of Operations
Revenue Capital 01.07.06 to 01.06.05 to
31.12.06 31.12.05
Total Total
£ £ £ £
Bank interest income 10,524 - 10,524 289,094
Fixed interest income 1,538,105 - 1,538,105 880,228
Dividend income 186,912 - 186,912 271,069
Net gains on financial
assets at fair value
through profit or loss - 472,446 472,446 5,143,834
Other (losses)/gains - (464,760) (464,760) 109,785
Total investment income 1,735,541 7,686 1,743,227 6,694,010
Management fees (159,045) (477,136) (636,181) (465,438)
Expenses (209,037) (79,370) (288,407) (600,417)
Total operating expenses (368,082) (556,506) (924,588) (1,065,855)
Operating profit before
taxation 1,367,459 (548,820) 818,639 5,628,155
Withholding tax (25,120) - (25,120) (32,074)
Operating profit after
taxation and increase in net
assets attributable to
holders of redeemable
participating preference
shares 1,342,339 (548,820) 793,519 5,596,081
Earnings per share* 1.27p (0.52)p 0.75p 7.11p
*Earnings per share is based on the weighted average number of redeemable
participating preference shares. The weighted average number of shares for the
period is 106,117,074.
Statement of Changes in Equity
01.07.06 to 01.07.05 to
31.12.06 31.12.05
£ £
Net assets attributable to holders of redeemable
participating preference shares at the start of
the period 126,375,613 55,935,077
Movement due to issue and redemptions of shares:
Proceeds from redeemable participating preference
shares issued - 66,436,462
Redemption of redeemable participating preference - -
shares
Net increase from share transactions - 66,436,462
Increase in net assets attributable to holders of
redeemable participating preference shares from
operations 793,519 5,596,081
Distributions to holders of redeemable
participating preference shares (530,585) (250,000)
Increase in net assets attributable to holders of
redeemable participating preference shares from
operations (after distributions) 262,934 5,346,081
Net assets attributable to holders of redeemable
participating preference shares at the end of the
period 126,638,547 127,717,620
Cash Flow Statement
01.07.05 to 01.07.05 to
31.12.05 31.12.05
£ £
Cash flows from operating activities
Purchase of financial assets and settlement of
financial liabilities (20,530,102) (64,319,257)
Proceeds from sale of investments (including
realised gains) 15,371,477 4,783,621
Amount paid to brokers (81,792) (91,323)
Bank interest received 36,076 225,362
Fixed interest income received 1,170,276 184,246
Dividends received 183,245 184,193
Withholding tax (25,120) (32,074)
Operating expenses paid (1,126,388) (562,402)
-------- ---------
Net cash utilised in operating activities (5,002,328) (59,627,634)
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Cash flows from financing activities
Dividends paid (530,585) (250,000)
Proceeds from issue of 'C' shares - 67,500,000
Issue expenses relating to issue of 'C' shares - (1,252,670)
-------- ---------
Net cash flow from financing activities (530,585) 65,997,330
-------- ---------
Net (decrease)/increase in cash and cash
equivalents (5,532,913) 6,369,696
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the
period 6,190,457 138,396
Exchange losses on cash and cash equivalents (464,760) (29,070)
-------- ---------
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the
period 192,784 6,479,022
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