Monthly Investment Report January 2022

RNS Number : 0686B

Ruffer Investment Company Limited

09 February 2022

 

RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED

(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41996)

LEI 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47

Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for January 2022.

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/0686B_1-2022-2-8.pdf

During January, the Company's NAV rose by 0.8%. This compared with a fall of 0.3% in the FTSE All-Share index.

Investors returned from the holiday period to face the prospect of much tighter financial conditions led by the US Federal Reserve. There are signs that higher inflation is embedding itself across the US economy, notably the labour market, and will not necessarily ease once supply chain disruptions abate. With interest rates close to zero and consumer price inflation at 7%, US policymakers are reacting to the realisation that conditions have been too accommodative for too long. Current expectations see four rate hikes in 2022, up from two at the turn of the year. Investors are forced to adapt to a world where the Fed now shows greater willingness to withstand financial market volatility in combatting inflation. The anticipation of rising rates provided a difficult backdrop for our inflation-linked bonds during the month, but this headwind was offset by the positive contribution from interest rate options. These options remain a key portfolio component and allow us to manage the Company's interest rate sensitivity in what we expect will be a volatile period for bond markets. The Company's duration remained close to zero as we ended the month.

Global equities offered little respite for investors, recording their worst monthly return (-4.5%) since March 2020. The declines were even greater for the technology focused Nasdaq composite (-9.0%), confirming our fears that the faster growing and more speculative parts of the equity market would be most acutely impacted by a rising cost of capital. Growing geopolitical tensions emanating from Russia and Ukraine did little to improve risk appetite. On a historical basis, inflation above 3% sees the correlation between bonds and equities turn positive and January provided a brief taste of the challenges conventional portfolios will encounter as monetary conditions tighten.

We are pleased to have delivered a positive return over the month when index level returns for both bonds and equities were negative. Despite the challenging backdrop, there were pockets of resilience as more cyclically exposed equities, which had been out of favour for much of the last decade, returned to prominence. Our equities, which are heavily tilted to this part of the market, contributed a positive return over the month. The most significant drivers of performance were the energy majors, which continued to rally as oil prices reached a seven year high. Demand remains strong and supply constrained, supporting our continued exposure across the energy sector. Elsewhere, bank stocks benefited from the rise in yields, supporting their position as an offset to the inflation-linked bonds. We resisted the urge to add meaningfully to equities during the recent weakness and instead maintain the current exposure at just below 40%.

The Federal Reserve may be the first mover, but the current inflationary pressures are not confined to the US. Other central banks will face pressures to join them in attempting to remove the stimulus punchbowl. The coming interest rate cycle is unlikely to be as well choreographed or as smooth as the last, resulting in continued uncertainty and a testing time for financial assets. We believe we have the right toolkit to survive and perhaps thrive in this environment.

Enquiries:

Sanne Fund Services (Guernsey) Limited

Gail Adams

DDI: [phone]

Email: [e-mail]  

 

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