Monthly Investment Report - March 2024

Ruffer Investment Company Limited

10 April 2024

 

10 April 2024

RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED

(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41966)

(the "Company")

Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for March 2024.

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/0327K_1-2024-4-10.pdf

March saw global stock markets hit fresh all-time highs propelled by a series of 'Goldilocks' assumptions: a 'just right' cocktail of robust US economic growth, no persistent inflation problem, and rate cuts to come. Last year's maul of bears has nearly all capitulated. At the moment, a 'no landing' scenario in which the US economy never really slows down and global growth picks up seems plausible but would run the risk of more persistent inflation - especially if central banks remain committed to easing. US one-year breakeven inflation expectations have now doubled to 4% since the start of January.

Cyclical stocks and commodities have begun to shine as this more 'reflationary' dynamic emerges. Gold hit a new all-time high despite structural selling of gold bullion ETFs by western investors. Demand from non-Western central banks and consumers is now driving price action - a canary in the global monetary coal mine. Against this backdrop the fund made positive progress driven by its equity and commodity exposure. The latter includes gold mining equities alongside copper exposure. We added silver exposure over the month - now nearly 4% of the fund. Historically, silver lags gold, then outperforms. It also has a strong fundamental story: growing demand from the 'electrification of everything' married to unreliable supply given the nature and location of its supply. A partial recovery in our long-dated inflation-linked bonds also helped performance.

Performance detractors included the yen position, despite the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) first rate hike in 17 years. Having rallied in expectation of the end of negative rates, the yen retreated as the BOJ declined to set out a clear path for future hikes. The yen remains historically cheap and will prosper if anything narrows the yield gap with Western central banks or causes a market shock. The absence of such a shock meant that our powerful derivative crash protections dragged, too. These are currently focused on equity market downside and credit default swaps.

We are not in the business of market timing, but the next few months will see a confluence of factors which could see hitherto bountiful liquidity retreat surprisingly quickly, causing a potentially sharp market drop. If so, our derivative protections will be key. Meanwhile, upside surprises in the path of rates and inflation or neglected geopolitical risks could also be unpleasant surprises for complacent markets. Beyond the significant tactical risks, we remain focused on the big picture. With the US government currently adding c $1tn of debt every 100 days, investors are refocusing on central banks' unofficial - but central - role: keeping government debt markets functioning and interest costs under control. If they have to choose between allowing more inflation or compromising financial stability, they'll choose the former. The fund remains set up to protect and prosper in a rapidly changing world.

Enquiries:

Enquiries:

Sanne Fund Services (Guernsey) Limited

Jamie Dodd

Email: [e-mail]

LEI: 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47

 

END