Monthly Investment Report November 2022

RNS Number : 2966J

Ruffer Investment Company Limited

12 December 2022

 

RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED

(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41996)

LEI 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47

Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for November 2022.

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2966J_1-2022-12-11.pdf

During November the net asset value of the company was up 1.8%. This compared to the FTSE All-Share TR which rose by 7.1%.

Following three consecutive negative quarters across almost all asset classes, the final quarter of 2022 is at last delivering some seasonal cheer for investors. November saw strong gains in both equities and bonds, though obviously not digital assets thanks to the collapse of FTX. This late burst of optimism is founded on the hope that inflation is finally peaking, though by now it clearly no longer warrants either the 'transitory' or 'temporary' labels. Evidence supporting the long-awaited peak in inflation arrived mid-month with US CPI below expectations and crucially lower than previous year on year readings. This sparked a sharp rally in both equities and bonds, as did US Federal Reserve Chair Powell's unexpectedly dovish speech on the very last day of the month. Investors may want to consider, however, whether such short-term volatility (one day gains for US equities of 5% and 3%) really constitutes a sound base for a sustained rally.

We have no argument with the idea that inflation (at least in the US) may have peaked and could fall quite sharply in coming months. Where we disagree with both central bank forecasts and market expectations is in their faith that inflation will return to target anytime soon. We think wage rises will make inflation stickier than predicted and see evidence for this in the strength of both US and UK private sector wage inflation, plus the depressing sight of increasing numbers of strikes here in the UK. This, plus concerns that markets currently underestimate the impact on corporate profits of a likely recession next year, has made us nervous of adding to equities. Instead, we added risk into portfolios through long-duration inflation linked bonds, principally in the US. These holdings performed strongly in the recent market rally.

Ruffer aims to deliver 'all weather' returns whatever happens in financial markets, and we do this by holding a combination of fear (protection) and greed (growth) assets. Over the last 20 years this approach has delivered a positive correlation to stock markets when they are healthy, so we aim to harvest a proportion of equity gains in the good times. However, we have been negatively correlated to equities when times are more difficult, protecting investors in each of the major stock market crises of the last quarter century. This year has been no exception. Ruffer portfolios were negatively correlated to both equities and bonds as they fell sharply earlier in the year. Adjustments to the portfolio meant it was positively correlated to equities in November, as markets staged a recovery. Such 'perfect' shifts in correlation cannot be expected every month, but it is reassuring to see both sides of our investment approach in good working order.

Enquiries:

Sanne Fund Services (Guernsey) Limited

Jamie Dodd

DDI: [phone]

Email: [e-mail]

 

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