Monthly Investment Report October 2022

RNS Number : 8388F

Ruffer Investment Company Limited

09 November 2022

 

RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED

(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41996)

LEI 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47

Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for October 2022.

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/8388F_1-2022-11-9.pdf

The net asset value of the Company fell by 1.0%. This compared to the FTSE All-Share TR which rose by 3.1%.

Financial markets were calmer in October compared to the volatility of recent months. Surveys suggest investors entered the fourth quarter with a sense of dread, indicating they were as bearish as they had been for some time and simply hoping the year would end! Given this starting position, it is perhaps unsurprising financial assets generally rallied in the absence of further bad news. This rally was not universal, and although the Dow Jones enjoyed its best month since 1976, up 14%, the much vaunted tech sector suffered substantial falls.

There was growing hope central banks would begin to slow their path of interest rate rises, and potentially even begin to hint at pivoting towards future cuts. At the same time, a relatively warmer autumn helped European gas prices fall, removing some shorter-term inflationary pressures. In the UK, the end of Liz Truss's brief term as prime minister, and the junking of her economic plans saw calm return to the gilt markets, which had been the epicentre of market volatility. All these things helped to boost market sentiment. Despite their low weighting, the fund's equity positions were a positive contributor (+0.8%) to returns, while the main headwinds were the unconventional protections (-0.8%). The resurgence in sterling also saw the positions in the US dollar and the yen contribute negatively.

Last month we described a move into long dated US inflation-linked and conventional bonds. We continued this move throughout October. We entered 2022 with our duration position almost entirely hedged, we now have around eight years of duration in the fund. We have also taken some profits in the UK inflation-linked gilts bought at extremely attractive prices at the nadir of the post 'mini-budget' crisis.

Our structural view remains that we have moved into a new regime, characterised by higher and more volatile inflation. Structurally higher inflation means we remain in a bear market for both bonds and equities. Inflation will also be more volatile and there will be periods when it might decline meaningfully. During these phases of falling inflation, we will need to participate in potentially powerful bond rallies. This is unequivocally not a reversion to the regime of the last four decades, but an acknowledgment that the path to the new regime is unlikely to be linear. Active management, including the use of cash, will continue to be key to driving returns.

There was much hope in advance of the Federal Reserve's 2 November meeting that they might pivot in response to growing fears of a global recession. We did not expect them to be enthusiastic to see equity markets rally. Given the continued focus on financial conditions and inflation, we suspected any such rally might only be short lived.

We are holding a meeting for shareholders on Thursday 24 November at our office in London. If you would like to attend please email [e-mail] .

Enquiries:

Sanne Fund Services (Guernsey) Limited

Jamie Dodd

DDI: [phone]

Email: [e-mail]

 

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