Investment Outlook: Anatomy of the recovery

Much of the world economy has caught its breath. We are in the midst
of a much-needed recovery phase, after a number of "green shoots"
began appearing in the economy as early as last spring. Corporate
earnings reports have largely provided positive surprises - though
due to cost-cutting - and for the past several months, purchasing
managers in the manufacturing sector have been reporting clear
improvements in order bookings. Risk appetite has increased, and such
asset classes as private equity have benefited from the new climate.
But in part, these changes have been artificially fuelled by massive
government bail-out and stimulus packages. So one critical question
is: When and how will these economic vitamin injections cease?


Aside from economic policy programmes, there appear to be underlying
forces that in the long term will sustain positive economic growth.
Looking back at history, it is possible to draw encouraging parallels
with the structure and dynamic of previous recoveries. But no two
crises are identical. For example, higher inflation expectations
could distort the current recovery scenario. In other words, there
are many indications that 2010 will be an interesting year, and
probably full of surprises.

In focus in this December 2009 issue of Investment Outlook:

"A continued cyclical upswing this winter and spring will provide a
favourable financial investment environment for another while. After
that, be prepared for somewhat choppier markets as accelerating
growth levels off, due to the launch of exit policies and the fading
positive impact of the inventory cycle," says Hans Peterson, Global
Head of Investment Strategy.

"The dollar is affected by both risk appetite and global liquidity
flows. A weak dollar should benefit the global recovery and American
exporters can take advantage of the situation," Mr Peterson
continues.

"Long-term global imbalance between commodity supply and demand will
benefit this asset class. In some cases, commodity shares may be a
better form of exposure than futures," he concludes.

Investment Strategy's current asset management strategy is based on
the prospect of a gradual improvement in macroeconomic conditions as
well as a normalisation of the corporate bond market. Due to the
withdrawal of the unprecedented stimulus measures initiated by
governments and central banks, there is a risk that the current
acceleration in the world economy will be followed by more or less
level growth, starting in the latter part of 2010.

The Investment Outlook report is published by Investment Strategy and
appears four times per year. It is intended for the customers of SEB
Private Banking. The report provides an idea of how Private Banking
turns global economic conditions into actual investment
opportunities.


SEB is a Northern European financial group serving some 400,000
corporate customers and institutions and five million private
individuals. SEB offers universal banking services in Sweden, Germany
and the three Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. It
also has a local presence in the other Nordic countries, Ukraine and
Russia and a global presence through its international network in
leading financial centres. On September 30, 2009, the Group's total
assets amounted to SEK 2,233 billion and its assets under management
totalled SEK 1,295 billion. The SEB Group has about 20,000 employees.
Read more about SEB at www.sebgroup.com.
_____________________________________________
For further information, please contact:
Hans Peterson, CIO Private Banking and global head Investment
Strategy, [phone]
Lars Gunnar Aspman, Senior analyst, Investment Strategy, +46 70-603
98 18
Elisabeth Lennhede, Press & PR, 070-763 99 16,
[e-mail]


This announcement was originally distributed by Hugin. The issuer is 
solely responsible for the content of this announcement.