Nordic Outlook: Economic recovery but higher ri...

Not unexpectedly, there are persistent debt problems in many countries. The
shift from one economic growth engine to another is occurring more sluggishly
than desired: private consumption and capital spending are not successfully
filling the void emerging as the positive effects of fiscal stimulus programmes
and inventory build-up fade away. The global recovery is continuing, but its
loss of momentum is creating uncertainty − despite new promises from the US
Federal Reserve (Fed) of new quantitative easing measures if needed. The US
economic deceleration is unwanted and risky, while Asia's deceleration is
proceeding as planned.  Differences in the underlying balance situation are now
increasingly important to the economic and financial outlook. Within the euro
zone, divergences in growth and employment are widening, creating policy
challenges. Two countries have delivered upside surprises in 2010 − Sweden and
Germany.

In the OECD countries, economic growth is expected to end up at 2-2.3 per cent
during the next couple of years, or somewhat below trend. We estimate the
probability of a new global recession at 25 per cent. Inflation will continue
downward, but the world will avoid deflation. Fiscal stimulus is largely
off-limits to many countries, which opens the way for continued ultra-loose
monetary policy; we expect both the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) to
keep their key interest rates at today's low levels throughout 2011. The fragile
recovery and weak governments are slowing the global reform agenda, and
questions about future economic and fiscal policy frameworks and regulations are
being postponed.

The Swedish economy has provided upside surprises in recent months. We expect
GDP growth to reach 4.7 per cent in 2010, then decelerate to 2.9 per cent in
2011 and 2.3 per cent in 2012. Lower interest rates, tax cuts and a rapid upturn
in exports − combined with the absence of falling home prices − have made
possible a strong rebound in both output and employment after the deep
recession. Unemployment will continue to fall from today's 8 per cent. The SEK
30-40 billion in room for reforms during 2011-2014 identified by the government
can be spent without affecting the credibility of Sweden's stable central
government finances.

"In a short period, conditions surrounding Sweden's Riksbank have changed. An
ever-larger share of idle economic resources is being placed in service,
especially in the labour market. The easing and postponement of the Basel
Committee's proposal for credit market standards and governance will place
greater responsibility for stabilisation policy on the Riksbank," says Robert
Bergqvist, SEB's Chief Economist. "At its next four policy meetings, we expect
the bank to raise its key interest rate, which will reach 1.50 per cent by
February 2011. But inflation will remain low, and the risks to economic growth
are on the downside due to international uncertainty. An excessively wide spread
between short-term interest rates in Sweden and other countries may also
strengthen the krona too much. So the Riksbank will slow down its rate-hiking.
At the end of 2011 the repo rate will be 2.25 per cent and at the end of 2012 it
will be 3.00 per cent. The krona will strengthen to 9.00 per euro at year-end
and to 8.75 at the end of 2011."

"Debt retirement will continue to hamper recovery in many countries. In the
United States, the adjustment in household savings now seems to be happening
faster than expected, with a savings ratio that will reach 8 per cent next
year," says Håkan Frisén, SEB's Head of Economic Research and editor in chief of
Nordic Outlook. "This will lay the groundwork for a more stable upturn ahead,
but over the next couple of years it will block a normal recovery dynamic. Even
though the Fed is providing back-up by promising more monetary stimulus, the US
economy will continue struggling with weak labour and housing markets,
hard-pressed small businesses and weak public finances both at the federal and
state level. The weak economy has helped erode confidence in President Obama,
and the Democrats are likely to lose ground in this autumn's congressional
elections."

Germany's strong competitive position is generating high growth there, while
continued debt reduction is weighing down southern Europe. The euro zone
economies are out of step with each other. We expect the German economy to grow
by more than 3 per cent this year, while the Greek economy will shrink by some
4 per cent, for example.

"Euro zone austerity measures announced so far total about 1 per cent of GDP
annually during 2010-2012," says Tomas Lindström, euro zone analyst at SEB
Economic Research. "The acute crisis in southern Europe has been eased by
bail-out loans and the enactment of belt-tightening programmes, but these
countries are still struggling with major cost problems. There are still various
lingering questions as to whether countries like Greece and Spain will have the
stamina to implement a belt-tightening policy. However, there are many
indications that euro zone capital spending is on its way up, whereas the
willingness of households to consume is an uncertainty factor. But subdued
economic growth in the euro zone need not have such an adverse impact on the
labour market. Our analysis shows that growth as slow as 1 per cent anually is
sufficient to keep unemployment at an unchanged level − well below the level
required elsewhere."

Various countries in Asia are showing signs of economic deceleration, though
from high levels. So far, Chinese authorities have been very cautious about
letting their currency appreciate against the US dollar.

"China is capable of cooling down growth in a controlled way to a more
sustainable pace," says economist Andreas Johnson of SEB Economic Research. "If
China should show signs of overly rapidly deceleration, fiscal policy can be
reactivated, since central government finances are still very strong. The
government's caution about yuan appreciation may lead to resumed currency policy
tensions with the US. On the other hand, today an internal revaluation that
includes rising domestic wages also seems to be under way, and this will
eventually take the edge off criticism from other countries."

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have resumed their economic growth, sustained by
strong exports after a brutal adjustment process. We believe that the Baltic
countries are now capable of 4-5 per cent annual growth in the next couple of
years.

"They have strengthened their competitiveness mainly by means of continued
internal devaluation, including sharp wage and salary cuts, but also due to
stronger currencies in their immediate vicinity and a weaker euro," says Mikael
Johansson, Eastern European and Baltic analyst at SEB Economic Research. "But
domestic demand remains depressed and unemployment high. Estonia has been given
the green light to join the euro zone in 2011, which has help strengthen market
confidence throughout the region and push down interest rates. There are some
lingering political risks in Latvia, which holds a parliamentary election in
October, and in Lithuania, but these countries are sticking to their austerity
policies, which seem to be paying off."

Because of the relative strength of the Swedish economy, the government that
takes office after the September 19 election will be in a solid position. We
foresee falling central government debt, approaching 25 per cent of GDP. A
parliamentary situation that might lead to a minority government is expected to
have only a minor impact.

"The credibility and stability of Swedish government finances is based on broad
political support for the now 15-year-old fiscal policy framework," says
economist Daniel Bergvall of SEB Economic Research, whose special focus is
public finances. "This reduces the risks of any uncertainty in the parliamentary
situation after the election. Effects on bond yields and on the krona will
probably fade quickly."

With GDP growth of 4.7 per cent in 2010, Sweden will be in a leading position.
But there are also risks.

"Looking further ahead, there is reason for some concern. Household credits have
continued to grow at a rapid pace, diverging from the international pattern,
Håkan Frisén says. "Experience shows that a build-up of debt as rapid as in
Sweden usually ends rather abruptly. Economic policy makers in Sweden, both in
fiscal and monetary policy, face the challenge of ensuring a soft landing for
credit growth and home prices, which so many countries have failed to achieve."

In 2010 international interest rates and bond yields have fallen sharply,
reaching historically low levels. The situation is beginning to resemble
Japan's. The question is how normal today's interest rates and yields are.

"Central banks' key interest rates can remain low for a long time, expressinmg a
need to ease debt reduction and counterbalance fiscal austerity packages.
Assuming continued low inflation, our analysis shows that a normal key interest
rate of around 2.5 per cent is not unreasonable in the medium term," says Robert
Bergqvist. "A normal long-term yield may be about 1 per cent higher, that is,
3.5 per cent. On the basis of these levels, today's interest rates and yields do
not seem exceptionally low, viewed in a future perspective."



   Key figures: International and Swedish economy
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+----+
|International economy. GDP, year-on-year changes, %|2009 |2010|2011|2012|
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+----+
 United States                                      |-2.6 |2.6 |2.2 |2.9
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 Euro zone                                          |-4.1 |1.6 |1.3 |1.5
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 Japan                                              |-5.2 |2.5 |1.5 |1.5
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 OECD                                               |-3.3 |2.2 |2.0 |2.3
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 China                                              | 8.7 |10.0|9.0 |8.0
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 Baltic countries                                   |-15.6|0.4 |4.2 |4.5
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 The world (purchasing power parities, PPP)         |-0.6 |4.4 |3.8 |4.3
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+----+
|Swedish economy. Year-on-year changes, %           |2009 |2010|2011|2012|
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+----+
 GDP, working day corrected                         |-5.0 |4.4 |2.9 |2.7
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 GDP, actual                                        |-5.1 |4.7 |2.9 |2.3
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 Unemployment, % (EU definition)                    | 8.3 |8.5 |7.8 |7.6
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation               |-0.3 |1.2 |1.7 |2.2
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 Government net lending (% of GDP)                  |-1.0 |-0.5|-0.6|0.3
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 Repo rate (December)                               |0.25 |1.25|2.25|3.0
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----
 Exchange rate, EUR/SEK (December)                  |10.24|9.00|8.75|8.80
----------------------------------------------------+-----+----+----+-----


Watch the film clip at SEB Newsroom where Håkan Frisén tells more about Nordic
Outlook.
Full Report to be picked up at:www.sebgroup.com, and SEB Newsroom.


For further information, please   Press contact
contact                           Elisabeth Lennhede,  Press & PR
                                  +46 70 763 9916
Robert Bergqvist, [phone] [e-mail]
Håkan Frisén, [phone]
Daniel Bergvall, [phone]
Olle Holmgren, [phone]
Mikael Johansson, [phone]
Andreas Johnson, [phone]
Tomas Lindström [phone]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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[HUG#1441506]





Press release (PDF): 


http://hugin.info/1208/R/1441506/385832.pdf

Nordic Outlook August 2010: 


http://hugin.info/1208/R/1441506/385833.pdf




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