Quarterly Portfolio Insight R

RNS Number : 9850F

Templeton Emerging Markets IT PLC

22 January 2010

 



Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC

Quarterly Portfolio Insight

Three months to 31 December 2009

Summary of investment objective

The Company seeks long-term capital appreciation through investment in companies operating in emerging markets or whose stocks are listed on the stock markets of such countries.

Company characteristics (31/12/09)

Fund launch date                                        12/06/1989

Benchmark                                                 MSCI Emerging Markets Index (in £)

Lead manager                                             Mark Mobius

Total Net Assets                                         £1.84b

Market Capitalisation                                  £1.73b

Gearing                                                      100.0%

TER                                                           1.36%

Pricing information (31/12/09)

NAV (Cum-Income)                                  557.5p

Share price                                                 524.0p

Discount to NAV (Cum-Income)                6.0%

Current Yield (net)                                      1.1%

Pricing information (Cum-income—12 months to 31/12/09)

Highest NAV                                             561.1p

Lowest NAV                                             264.0p

Highest share price                                     527.0p

Lowest share price                                     235.8p

For the most up-to-date information, please visit www.temit.co.uk.

Market Overview (All figures are based in sterling)

• During 2009, emerging markets experienced a surge after significant falls in 2008. This was a result of many factors, most significantly, the rapid increase in money supply and liquidity supplied by governments to prevent an economic depression. In sterling terms, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 59% in 2009, leading to a huge influx of funds into emerging markets. In the first 11 months of 2009, emerging markets recorded nearly US$75 billion in net inflows, about 40% more than the record high in 2007.

• That is not to say that there haven't been some anxieties. A recent temporary setback was the announcement by Dubai World of a six-month debt payment standstill. Markets rebounded quickly after neighbouring Abu Dhabi provided funds to help repay debts. In general, as long as global money supply continues its upward trend, we believe the bullish sentiment in emerging markets can be sustained.

• We could see more money being directed into emerging markets in the next 10 years as investors realise that they can buy good value at reasonable prices. Rapid developments in emerging markets should allow markets such as China, Brazil, Russia and India to become some of the world's most important and influential countries.

Investment Outlook

Our outlook for 2010 is optimistic. We believe that emerging markets are in a secular bull trend and the general direction of emerging markets is positive. Many countries have already returned to growth and we expect that growth to continue. However, volatility is still with us. Risks, such as the inability of governments to control the derivatives markets, loss of confidence, over or poor regulation, adoption of protectionist measures and abandonment of the market economy philosophy do exist. Therefore, we must pay attention to valuations and long-term earnings growth prospects in order to avoid buying or holding expensive stocks. Current valuations are below the five-year high valuations and are not excessive. 

We keep in mind that every bull market will have corrections and with the active developments in derivatives, those corrections can be large. Our optimism for emerging markets is founded on: (1) growing investor confidence in equities, (2) strong fund inflows, (3) the search for higher returns in the face of low interest rates, (4) relatively higher GDP growth, (5) the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, (6) relatively lower debt levels, and (7) the high level of money supply globally. We believe all of these factors make emerging markets attractive to investors.

  Performance

• For the three months to 31 December 2009, TEMIT's share price rose 13.4% compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which rose 7.5%1. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Cumulative Performance1 

31 December 2009

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

	3 Months	6 Months	Year To Date	1 Year	3 Years	5 Years	Since Launch
TEMIT (NAV)	12.3%	42.9%	85.1%	85.1%	62.0%	185.0%	1,624.1%*
TEMIT (Share Price)	13.4%	42.4%	95.4%	95.4%	75.6%	228.7%	1,746.1%**
MSCI Emerging Mkts Index	7.5%	34.0%	59.4%	59.4%	42.0%	148.5%	854.8%**

*NAV price is calculated from 31/07/89 (the first available date). **Share price and index are calculated from 12/06/89 (TEMIT's launch date).

Discrete Annual Performance1 

To end of December each year

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

	31/12/08 to 31/12/09	31/12/07 to 31/12/08	29/12/06 to 31/12/07	30/12/05 to 29/12/06	31/12/04 to 30/12/05
TEMIT (NAV)	85.1%	-43.5%	54.9%	14.8%	53.2%
TEMIT (Share Price)	95.4%	-40.8%	51.8%	20.6%	55.3%
MSCI Emerging Mkts Index	59.4%	-35.2%	37.5%	16.3%	50.5%

  Portfolio Changes and Positioning

1 October 2009 - 31 December 2009
During the quarter, TEMIT increased its investments in Pakistan, China, via the Hong Kong-listed "H" and "Red-chip" shares, and Thailand as it continued to search for undervalued stocks trading at attractive valuations. We increased exposure to the diversified banking, automobile manufacturing and integrated oil and gas sectors due to their attractive fundamentals. Conversely, exposure to Taiwan was reduced.

Geographic Information

Geographic Allocation2

31 December 2009

	TEMIT
Emerging Markets	98.7%
Frontier Markets	1.3%
Developed Markets	0.0%

Regional Weightings vs. Benchmark (%)2

31 December 2009

	TEMIT	MSCI Emerging Markets Index
Asia	55.3%	55.7%
L. America/Caribbean	24.6%	23.7%
Europe	16.6%	10.1%
Mid-East/Africa	2.9%	10.4%

10 Largest Country Weightings vs. Benchmark (%)2

31 December 2009

	TEMIT	MSCI Emerging Markets Index
Brazil	22.8%	16.9%
Hong Kong / China	20.2%	17.9%
India	13.7%	7.5%
Thailand	8.5%	1.3%
Turkey	6.7%	1.5%
Russia	5.9%	6.3%
South Korea	5.7%	12.7%
Indonesia	5.6%	1.9%
South Africa	2.9%	6.9%
Mexico	1.8%	4.3%

Largest contributors and detractors to performance3

1 October 2009 - 31 December 2009 
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Top Country Contributors		Top Country Detractors
Country	Contribution	Country	Contribution
India	3.7%	South Korea	-0.7%
China	3.6%
Brazil	3.2%
United Kingdom	0.7%
Turkey	0.7%

Sector Information

Sector Weightings vs. Benchmark (%)2

31 December 2009

	TEMIT	MSCI Emerging Markets Index
Financials	26.2%	24.6%
Materials	21.9%	14.9%
Energy	20.1%	14.7%
Consumer Discretionary	12.4%	5.8%
Utilities	5.6%	3.6%
Information Technology	4.1%	13.2%
Industrials	3.8%	6.8%
Telecommunication Services	2.7%	8.6%
Consumer Staples	2.6%	5.6%
Healthcare	0.0%	2.2%

Sector Overweights/Underweights vs. Benchmark (%)2

31 December 2009

	Overweight/Underweight Benchmark
Materials	7.0%
Consumer Discretionary	6.6%
Energy	5.4%
Utilities	2.0%
Financials	1.6%
Healthcare	-2.2%
Industrials	-3.0%
Consumer Staples	-3.0%
Telecommunication Services	-5.9%
Information Technology	-9.1%

Largest contributors and detractors to performance3

1 October 2009 - 31 December 2009 

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Top Sector Contributors		Top Sector Detractors
Sector	Contribution	Sector	Contribution
Materials	5.3%	Industrials	-0.4%
Consumer Discretionary	3.6%
Financials	1.9%
Energy	1.2%
Information Technology	1.1%

TEMIT Holdings

Top Ten Equity Issuers4

31 December 2009

Security	Sector	Country	% of total assets
Itau Unibanco Banco Multiplo SA, ADR	Financials	Brazil	6.6%
Sesa Goa Ltd.	Materials	India	6.1%
Vale SA, ADR, pfd. A	Materials	Brazil	6.1%
Banco Bradesco SA, ADR, pfd	Financials	Brazil	5.3%
Akbank TAS	Financials	Turkey	4.8%
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, ADR, pfd.	Energy	Brazil	4.8%
Denway Motors Ltd.	Consumer Discretionary	China	3.5%
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd	Information Technology	India	3.3%
PetroChina Co. Ltd.	Energy	China	3.2%
Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd.	Materials	China	2.9%
TOTAL			46.6%

Portfolio Turnover Rate5

12 months to 31 December 2009

Portfolio Turnover Rate (annualised)

12.07%

Market Capitalisation Breakdown5

As at 31 December 2009

	Less than £1.5bn	£1.5bn to £5bn	Greater than £5bn	Cash
Market Capitalisation	10.2%	26.8%	62.4%	0.6%

  Largest Contributors and Detractors to Performance

Top Five Security Contributors4

1 October 2009 - 31 December 2009 

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Security	Sector	Country	Contribution
Sesa Goa Ltd.	Materials	India	2.5%
Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd.	Consumer Discretionary	China	2.1%
Vale SA, ADR, pfd	Materials	Brazil	1.3%
Denway Motors Ltd.	Consumer Discretionary	China	1.2%
Itau Unibanco Banco Multiplo S/A (ADS)	Financials	Brazil	0.9%

Top Security Detractors4

1 October 2009 - 31 December 2009 

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Security	Sector	Country	Contribution
Hyundai Development Co.	Industrials	South Korea	-0.4%
SK Energy Co. Ltd.	Energy	South Korea	-0.3%
Bank Danamon Indonesia	Financials	Indonesia	-0.2%
PTT Public Company	Energy	Thailand	-0.2%
Peninsula Land Ltd.	Financials	India	-0.1%

Significant purchases4

1 October 2009 - 31 December 2009 
MCB (Existing holding)-Pakistan's fourth largest bank.

Buy reason: Attractive valuation and relatively high return on equity.

Brilliance China (Existing holding)-Major automobile manufacturer in a joint venture with BMW for the production/sale of BMW 3 & 5 series in China.

Buy reason: Benefiting from the growth in demand for automobiles and government stimulus measures in that sector.

PetroChina (Existing holding)-China's largest oil and gas company in terms of reserves.

Buy reason: Benefiting from the long-term uptrend in oil prices.

Kiatnakin (Existing Holding)-A commercial bank in Thailand.

Buy reason: Trading at attractive valuations and is well positioned to benefit from niche businesses like the management of distressed assets and loans to small property developers.

Significant sales4

1 October 2009 - 31 December 2009
Compal Communication (Complete sale)-Taiwan's largest handset manufacturer.

Sell Reason: Intensive competition and the weakening market position of one of its major customers.

Statistics

Fundamental Porfolio Characteristics6

31 December 2009 

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

	Price to Earnings	Price to  Book Value	Price to  Cash Flow	Dividend  Yield	Market Cap  (Millions)
TEMIT (Weighted Average)	17.1x	2.2x	9.3x	2.0%	£17,815*
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Weighted Average)	20.6	2.2x	11.0x	2.1%	£23,522

*Market Cap figure for the portfolio covers 91.0% of holdings.

Risk Statistics7

31 December 2009 

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

	1 Year	3 years (annualised)
Annualised Alpha	23.9	6.92
Beta	1.0	1.1
Annualised Downside Risk	7.2	10.7
Information Ratio (Relative)	0.7	0.2
R2	0.9	0.9
Sharpe Ratio	0.7	0.2
Annualised Tracking Error	8.2	8.3
Annualised Volatility	26.4	32.3
Maximum Gain	113.5	124.8
Maximum Loss	-8.5	-50.5
Negative Months	4	15
Positive Months	8	21

Investment Style

• The Investment Manager and his team use in-depth company research to find securities in any emerging market country or industry sector, regardless of company size, that they believe are undervalued by the market, but have the potential to increase in value over time.

• Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC (TEMIT) is actively managed, aiming to invest in those securities that the Investment Manager believes have the best potential to grow in value over a five year period. Although performance is measured against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index for reporting purposes, there is no requirement for the Investment Manager to invest in the same companies or in the same amount as the index. TEMIT's performance or portfolio positioning may therefore be very different to the index.

• TEMIT invests in emerging markets; these markets can experience significant and sudden changes in price and can carry a higher degree of risk than developed markets. An investment in TEMIT should be considered as long-term.

Investment Manager and Team

Mark Mobius, Ph.D., Executive Chairman of Templeton Asset Management, LLC, is the Head of the Templeton Emerging Markets Team.

The Templeton Emerging Markets Team is one of the pioneers of emerging market investment. Established in 1987, the Team has over 20 years of experience and now manages £21.3 billion in emerging markets assets for retail, institutional and professional investors across the globe (as at 31/12/09)

The Templeton Emerging Markets Team is one of the largest of its kind and has a presence in 15 offices around the world. 

The Team includes 39 dedicated emerging markets portfolio managers, analysts and product specialists; senior members of the Team include Allan Lam, Tom Wu, Dennis Lim, Carlos Hardenberg, Gregorz Konieczny and Gustavo Stenzel. Together, they speak 22 different languages and dialects. On average, each of the Team's investment professionals has 11 years of relevant industry experience, and has been with the company for 9 years (all information as at 30/09/09).

Investor Suitability

TEMIT may be appropriate for investors who want to invest in emerging markets and are willing to take some risk for the potential of strong capital growth over the long term.

Emerging market companies can be more volatile than developed markets and an investment in TEMIT could occasionally change in value significantly over the short-term. Shareholders in TEMIT should therefore consider it as a long-term financial commitment.

Please refer to the latest annual report for more details of the risks associated with an investment in TEMIT.

  Glossary of Terms

Alpha - Alpha measures the difference between a fund's actual returns and its expected performance, given its level of risk (as measured by beta). A positive alpha means that the fund has over performed, a negative alpha means the fund has under performed; for example, an alpha of 1.0 means the fund outperformed the market 1.0%.

Beta - Beta is a measure of a fund's sensitivity to market movements. It measures the relationship between a fund's excess return over an investment in a risk-free investment such as cash (we have used a return of 3.5%) and the excess return of the benchmark index. For TEMIT, this is the Investment Trusts Global Emerging Markets universe. By definition, the beta of the benchmark (in this case, an index) is 1.00. Accordingly, a fund with a 1.10 beta has performed 10% better (after deducting the cash rate) than the index in up markets and 10% worse in down markets, assuming all other factors remain constant. A fund with a high beta will tend to move more than the benchmark, a fund with a low beta will tend to move less.

Contributor - The amount an individual stock, country or sector has added to the performance of the entire portfolio for a given period.

Detractor - The amount an individual stock, country or sector has subtracted from the performance of the entire portfolio for a given period.

Dividend Yield - The yield a company pays out to its shareholders in the form of dividends. It is calculated by the dividends paid per share over a year divided by the stock's price. For a vehicle like TEMIT, which invests in a number of companies, this figure represents the weighted average annual dividend paid by all of the companies in which it invests. Because of share types, fees and other considerations, the dividend yield quoted here should not be used as an indication of the income to be received from this portfolio. 

Downside Risk - Downside risk is a measurement which only considers negative returns. It is calculated as a downside deviation of returns below the Risk Free Rate (this is the amount a manager could expect to receive by investing in a "risk free" asset, such as with a cash deposit).

Gearing - Borrowings by an investment trust to boost the return on capital and income via additional investment. This may also be called leverage.

Information Ratio - This ratio divides the annualised average return for the fund by the Tracking Error (Relative). The higher the ratio, the better, as it reflects the extent to which a fund has outperformed the benchmark.

Market Capitalisation - the total market value of a company's shares. For a vehicle like TEMIT, which invests in a number of companies, this is calculated by the share price on a certain date multiplied by the number of shares in issue.

Market Cap (average) - the weighted average of all the companies in which it invests.

Maximum Gain - the best possible investment period in the period analysed. This includes temporary down periods.

Maximum Loss - the worst possible investment period in the period analysed. This includes temporary up periods.

NAV - Net Asset Value, or the total value of the fund at any one time, including all shares and cash, divided by the number of shares in issue.

Portfolio Turnover Rate - The frequency with which assets within a portfolio are bought and sold by the manager. Portfolio turnover is calculated by taking either the total amount of new securities purchased or the amount of securities sold - whichever is less - over a particular period, divided by the total net asset value (NAV) of the fund. The measurement for a 12-month time period. 

Positive & Negative Periods - This shows how many positive/negative months returns that a fund experiences across a period.

Price to Book (P/B) - The price per share of a stock divided by its book value (i.e. net worth) per share. For a portfolio, the ratio is the weighted average price/book ratio of the stocks it holds.

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF) - Supplements price/earnings ratio as a measure of relative value; it represents a weighted average of the price/cash flow ratios for the underlying fund holdings.

Price to Earnings (P/E) - The share price of a stock, divided by its per-share earnings over the past year. For a portfolio, it is the weighted average P/E ratio of the stocks in the portfolio. P/E is a good indicator of market expectations about a company's prospects; the higher the P/E, the greater the expectations for a company's future growth in earnings.

R2 - R2 or R squared, is an indication of how closely aligned the portfolio and the benchmark index are. R2 ranges between 0 and 1, with 0 indicating a lot of difference and 1 indicating a perfect match. A value of 0.7 and upwards generally suggests that a portfolio's performance is very closely linked to the performance of the benchmark index.

Share Price - The cost of a unit of ownership in a company as purchased through the stock exchange.

Sharpe Ratio - Sharpe Ratio judges whether the relationship between a fund's risk and its return is good or bad. The underlying assumption is that a fund manager could invest in a riskless asset (such as cash), therefore the return of the risk free asset is deducted from the annualised average return. This net return is then divided by the total risk (annualised volatility). The higher the ratio the better the return for investors for the risk taken.

Total Net Assets - The total value of a company's shares. For a vehicle like TEMIT, which invests in a number of companies, this is calculated by the Net Asset Value (NAV) on a certain date multiplied by the number of shares in issue.

Tracking Error (Relative) - Tracking Error (Relative) measures how much the return of the portfolio deviates from the benchmark index. The lower the tracking error of the portfolio, the more it resembles the benchmark in terms of risk and return characteristics.

Trust - A Trust, or Investment Trust, is a closed ended vehicle investing in a wide variety of underlying investments. Investment Trusts are traded in exactly the same way as any other equity on the London Stock Exchange. The price at which they are traded (share price) depends on the demand for the shares in the investment trust and is often at a variance with the value of their underlying holdings (or NAV).

Volatility - This is a statistical measure of the amount of movement in the price of a share or portfolio over a given period of time. If a fund's share price hardly moves over time, it is said to have a low volatility. Volatility is a simple measure of the consistency of returns.

  Important Information

• Performance is calculated NAV-NAV, GBP net of UK basic rate tax and gross of fees. Source: ©Morningstar as at 31/12/09. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Emerging markets can carry a higher degree of risk than developed markets. 

• Source for the Company's "Geographic Weightings" and "Sector Weightings": Franklin Templeton Investments as at 31/12/09. Holdings of the same issuer have been combined. Weightings as percent of equity. Source for the benchmark's "Geographic Weightings" and "Sector Weightings": MSCI, as at 31/12/09. The MSCI Index, the primary benchmark for this Company, is an equity index calculated by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). The index measures the total return (gross dividends are reinvested) of equity securities available to foreign (nonlocal) investors in the relevant geographic region as reflected in the name of the index or as defined by MSCI. Securities included in the index are weighted according to their Free Float adjusted market capitalisation (Price*Shares outstanding*Foreign Inclusion Factor). 

• Source for "Top Country and Sector Contributors and Detractors". FactSet Research System, Inc. as at 31/12/09. Profile data is calculated as a percentage of total. Holdings of the same issuer have been combined.

• For the "Top Ten Equity Issuers", please note that top ten equity holdings information is historical and may not reflect current or future composite characteristics. All holdings are subject to change. Holdings of the same issuers have been combined. The information provided is not a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any particular security. The securities identified do not represent the Company's entire holdings and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of such holdings. There is no assurance that securities purchased will remain in TEMIT, or that securities sold will not be repurchased. In addition, it should not be assumed that any securities mentioned were or will prove to be profitable. Stocks mentioned in this report are not a solicitation to purchase those stocks, and are for example purposes only.
  The portfolio manager for TEMIT reserves the right to withhold release of information with respect to holdings that would otherwise be included in a top 10 holdings list.
  "Top Ten Security Contributors" and "Top Ten Security Detractors" are holdings based on the last 3 months period. These securities do not represent all the securities purchased, sold or recommended, and the reader should not assume that investment in the security listed was or will be profitable. Holdings are subject to change, holdings of the same issuer have been combined. The information provided is not a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold any particular security. 
  Source for "Top Security Contributors and Detractors": FactSet Research System, Inc. three months as at 31/12/09. Profile data is calculated as a percentage of total. Holdings of the same issuer have been combined. 

• Source for "Portfolio Turnover Rate", Franklin Templeton Investments as at 31/12/09.

• Source for "Fundamental Portfolio Characteristics", FactSet Research System, Inc. as at 31/12/09. The Price to Earnings, Price to Cash Flow and Price to Book Value calculations shown herein use harmonic means. Values less than 0.01 (i.e. negative value) are excluded and values in excess of 200x are capped at 200x. Yields above 100% are also excluded. For the benchmarks, no limits are applied to these ratios in keeping with the benchmark's calculation methodology. Market capitalisation statistics are indicated in the base currency for the portfolio presenter. 

• Source for "Risk Statistics", Financial Express as at 31/12/09. Total return, annualised ratios (31/12/09). Statistics calculated using a "risk free rate" at 3.5% and the Investment Trusts Global Emerging Markets universe as a benchmark.

The price of shares in TEMIT and income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount that you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Currency fluctuations will affect the value of overseas investments. In emerging markets, the risks can be greater than in developed markets. 

This document does not constitute or form part of an offer for shares or an invitation to apply for shares. An investment in this Company entails risks which are described in the Annual Report and Accounts. Please consult your professional adviser before deciding to invest. 

Due to data limitations all equity holdings are assumed to be the primary equity issue (usually the ordinary or common shares) of each security's issuing company. This methodology may cause small differences between portfolio's reported characteristics and the portfolio's actual characteristics. In practice, Franklin Templeton's portfolio managers invest in the class or type of security which they believe is most appropriate at the time of purchase. The market capitalisation figures for both the portfolio and the benchmark are at the security level, not aggregated up to the main issuer. The dividend yield quoted here should not be used as an indication of the income to be received from this portfolio.

Performance figures are not based on audited financial statements and, unless indicated otherwise, assume reinvestment of interest and dividends. When comparing the performance of TEMIT with the benchmark index, it is important to note that the securities in which TEMIT invests may be substantially different than those represented by the benchmark index. Furthermore, an investment in TEMIT represents an investment in a managed investment company in which certain charges and expenses, including management fees, are applicable. These charges and expenses are not applicable to indices. Lastly, please note that indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Certain data and other information shown have been supplied by outside sources. While we consider that information to be reliable, we give no assurance that such data and information is accurate or complete.

The indices are provided only to show the investment environment during the specific periods shown. The performance of each index does not include the deduction of expenses and does not represent the performance of any Franklin Templeton portfolio. The indices include a greater number of securities than those held in the portfolio. An index is unmanaged. 

All MSCI data is provided "as is." The portfolio described herein is not sponsored or endorsed by MSCI. In no event shall MSCI, its affiliates or any MSCI data provider have any liability of any kind in connection with the MSCI data or the portfolio described herein. Copying or redistributing the MSCI data is strictly prohibited. 

This report is issued in the United Kingdom by Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Copies of the most recent annual and half-yearly Manager's Report are available from the website www.temit.co.uk or Franklin Templeton Investments, The Adelphi, 1-11 John Adam Street, London, WC2N 6HT.

A FULL PDF VERSION OF THIS REPORT IS ATTACHED IN PDF FORMAT.

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9850F_-2010-1-22.pdf

 

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