Trading Statement and Operational Update

RNS Number : 8465G

Tullow Oil PLC

04 July 2012

 



TRADING STATEMENT AND OPERATIONAL UPDATE

Record first half revenues expected; $2.9bn farm-down in Uganda completed

Jubilee remediation programme progressing well; basin-opening Ngamia-1 discovery in Kenya

65% E&A success ratio year to date; significant second half exploration activity planned

4 July 2012 - Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) issues this Trading Statement and Operational Update in respect of the first half of the 2012 financial year ended 30 June 2012. This is in advance of the Group's Half-Yearly Results, which are scheduled for release on Wednesday 25 July 2012. The information contained herein has not been audited and is subject to further review.

HIGHLIGHTS

Exploration and Appraisal activities

·      Basin-opening Ngamia-1 discovery in Kenya; accelerated E&A programme planned with additional rigs.

·      65% exploration and appraisal success ratio year to date.

·      Major E&A programme re-commenced in Uganda with four rigs currently active.

·      High-impact E&A programme of approximately 40 wells over the coming 12 months which includes drilling in Guyana, French Guiana, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia and Mauritania.

Development and Operations activities

·      $2.9 billion Uganda farm-down completed; significant operational activity has recommenced; conceptual basin development work completed and Government engagement initiated.

·      Jubilee remediation work progressing well; 2012 exit rate expected to exceed 90,000 bopd.

·      TEN project on track for Plan of Development submission in the third quarter of 2012.

·      Jubilee Phase 1A progressing well with first oil expected in the fourth quarter of 2012.

·      Group working interest production averaged 77,400 boepd in the first half of 2012; production for the full year is forecast to average between 80,000 and 84,000 boepd with an exit rate of over 90,000 boepd.

Group financials

·      Record 1H 2012 revenue of $1.15 billion. Net debt at 30 June 2012 was approximately $0.7 billion.

·      Uganda farm-down proceeds have transformed the balance sheet; pre-tax profit on disposal of approximately $700 million.

·      First half capital expenditure of $0.9 billion with forecast 2012 expenditure remaining at $2.0 billion.

·      Exploration write-off and asset value reduction of $440 million expected in the first half of 2012.

COMMENTING TODAY, AIDAN HEAVEY, CHIEF EXECUTIVE SAID:

"Tullow's industry-leading exploration success has continued in the first half of 2012 with a major discovery in Kenya, the fourth new basin the Group has opened in five years. We have also completed the $2.9 billion farm-down in Uganda, and made good progress on our development projects in Ghana and Uganda. The on-going remediation of the Jubilee field is progressing well and significant exploration wells are planned for the East African Rift basins, the West African Transform Margin and the twin basins in South America in the second half of 2012. With an exciting programme ahead, Tullow is well placed for continued success over the remainder of the year."

Conference Call: In conjunction with this announcement Tullow has scheduled a conference call at 09:00 today. Details are included at the end of the release.

Trading statement

Production

Group working interest production for the first half of 2012 averaged 77,400 boepd. A further breakdown of these figures is provided in the Operational Update. Production figures in this update remain subject to final reconciliation and do not equate to sales volumes which averaged 67,900 boepd in the first half of 2012. This is due to variations in lifting schedules and because a portion of the production is delivered to host governments under the terms of Production Sharing Contracts.

Realised prices and oil discount

The realised commodity prices during the first half of 2012 were in line with 2011 levels. The realised oil price was approximately $114.2/bbl (pre hedge) and $110.6/bbl (post hedge) and the realised UK gas price was approximately 58.4p/therm (pre and post hedge).

Total revenue for the first half of 2012 is expected to be of the order of $1.15 billion, compared with $1.06 billion for the same period in 2011.

Exploration write-offs and asset carrying value review

Write-offs associated with unsuccessful exploration activities during the first half of 2012 in Sierra Leone, Côte d'Ivoire and Tanzania, new ventures activity and licence relinquishments totalled approximately $80 million.

In the first half of 2012, Tullow has also conducted a thorough review of the exploration asset values on its balance sheet compared with expected near-term work programmes and the relative attractiveness of further investment in these assets. This review has resulted in an additional write-down of approximately $360 million. The principle elements of the write-downs are: the Odum discovery in Ghana where acreage has been relinquished ($40 million); carried costs for Kudu in Namibia where progress towards commercialisation continues to be delayed ($160 million); the undeveloped discoveries in Mauritania ($80 million) and other exploration costs to date in Sierra Leone where interest remains, but a hub class commercial discovery has yet to be made ($50 million).

Tullow's total exploration write-off and asset value reduction for the first half of 2012 is therefore expected to be of the order of $440 million.

Underlift

At 30 June 2012, Tullow was in a net underlift position amounting to an estimated 26,000 barrels. Movements during the first half of 2012 in underlift and overlift positions are recorded at market value and, combined with stock movements during the period, give rise to a charge of approximately $4 million to cost of sales.

Portfolio Activity

On 21 February 2012, the Group completed the farm-down of two thirds of its Uganda interests to Total and CNOOC for a headline consideration of $2.9 billion. A pre-tax profit on disposal of approximately $700 million and an estimated post tax profit on disposal of $558 million will be recognised in respect of this transaction.

In anticipation of the farm-down of the Ugandan assets to CNOOC and Total, the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) issued an assessment for $473 million in respect of capital gains tax on the transaction. At completion, $142 million was paid to the URA, being 30% of the tax assessed as legally required for an appeal. The assessment denies relief for costs incurred by the Group in the normal course of developing the assets, and excludes certain contractual and statutory reliefs from capital gains tax the Group maintains are properly allowable. The appeal will be heard by the Tax Appeals Tribunal in Kampala later in the year. On the advice of leading counsel, the Group believes it has a strong case under both international and Ugandan law and currently views the most probable outcome to be that any liability will be at a similar level to the amount already paid on account.

Capital expenditure

Capital expenditure for first half of 2012 amounted to $0.9 billion. Based on current estimates and work programmes, total capital expenditure for 2012 is forecast to be $2.0 billion. Approximately 60% of this investment will be allocated to exploration and appraisal and the remainder to selected development activities.

Commodity hedging summary

At 30 June 2012, the Group's commodity hedge position to the end of 2014 was as follows:

Hedge Position	2012	2013	2014
Oil Hedges
Volume - bopd	34,500	29,000	14,500
Current Price Hedge - $/bbl	97.6	97.4	95.7
Gas Hedges
Volume - mmscfd	30.5	14.6	4.9
Current Price Hedge - p/therm	57.9	62.7	66.1

Net debt

Net debt at 30 June was approximately $0.7 billion and unutilised debt capacity was approximately $2.5 billion. The Revolving Corporate Facility commitments were reduced by $0.15 billion to a revised aggregate of $0.5 billion, following the Uganda asset disposal in the first half of 2012. Commitments under the Reserve Based Lend Facility remain unchanged at $3.5 billion.

Operational Update

WEST & NORTH AFRICA 

Tullow's West and North Africa regional business has exploration, appraisal, development and production interests in Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Côte d'Ivoire, Mauritania, Senegal, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Congo (Brazzaville).

Working interest production	1H 2012 Average (boepd)	Current (boepd)
Ghana	22,400	22,400
Equatorial Guinea	11,200	11,600
Gabon
Tchatamba	3,800	4,000
Niungo	2,600	2,500
Other Gabon	7,100	7,500
Côte d'Ivoire	3,600	4,100
Congo (Brazzaville)	2,400	2,400
Mauritania	1,100	1,400
West & North Africa Total	54,200	55,900

Ghana

The Jubilee field has continued to deliver industry-leading operational and safety performance with 98% uptime and zero lost time incidents to date in 2012. In the first half of the year, field production has averaged 63,100 bopd gross and is currently producing at approximately 63,000 bopd gross with a number of wells temporarily offline for ongoing acid stimulation activity. Significant increases are expected in the second half of 2012 as the benefit of the acidisation programme is realised and new Phase 1A wells are brought onstream. Jubilee field production is expected to average between 70,000 and 80,000 bopd gross in 2012, underpinned by the successful remediation programme. The field is expected to exit 2012 with a gross production rate in excess of 90,000 bopd as it ramps up to plateau production in 2013.

As the projected production figures show, the remedial work to address the decline in productivity from some of the Jubilee wells has progressed well. Acid stimulations have now been completed on three of the Phase 1 production wells and these wells are producing steadily at increased rates. Acid stimulations have proven to be a cost effective solution to remediating the wells and therefore three more are planned for this year. No further sidetracks or recompletions are planned as part of the remediation program.

The Phase 1A development project is progressing as planned with two production wells and one injector well drilled. Well completion and commissioning operations will continue through the second half of 2012 and first production is expected in the fourth quarter of 2012.

TEN project appraisal drilling and well testing, to support the Plan of Development (PoD), has continued to progress well. In May 2012, the Ntomme 2A appraisal well was successfully completed and flow tests in both the upper and lower reservoir zones recorded a combined rate of around 20,000 bopd. Following the flow tests, gauge readings were taken at the Tweneboa 3ST well (the Ntomme discovery well) which confirmed reservoir continuity.

Development work on the TEN project, which includes the FPSO design competition, subsea FEED and associated tendering remains on track for the PoD to be submitted to the Minister of Energy during the third quarter of 2012.

Exploration drilling activity is ongoing in the Deep Water Tano licence with the drilling of the Wawa-1 well, which is expected to reach total depth in July 2012. On completion of Wawa-1, the Okure and Sapele exploration wells will be drilled prior to the exploration licence expiry in January 2013.

In the West Cape Three Points licence, the Teak-4 appraisal well encountered thin non-commercial reservoirs and has been plugged and abandoned. Discussions are on-going in relation to further appraisal and development plans for the Mahogany, Teak, Akasa and Banda discoveries.

Rest of the region

The Group's assets in Equatorial Guinea have performed strongly in the first half of 2012 with total gross production of over 78,000 bopd gross from the Ceiba and Okume fields. First oil from the Akom North tie-back began in January 2012 increasing the gross production from the Okume Complex by over 6,000 bopd. A workover and infill drilling campaign that commenced on the Ceiba field in January 2012 continues and the first two workovers are contributing materially to production, a third workover will commence production later in July 2012. Two infill wells will now be drilled and tied in for production during the third quarter of 2012 as part of an 8-well campaign which will maintain production above current levels.

Production performance from Tullow's Gabon assets has been strong with combined net production again reaching 13,500 bopd mainly supported by development activities on Tchatamba, Limande and Echira fields. Further development activities will continue across the assets; the Tchatamba-South B9 appraisal well has been drilled and brought on stream, the Turnix B6 development well is currently drilling and will be followed by the Limande-8 development well.

Tullow's high impact exploration campaigns in the West African Equatorial Atlantic continued during the first half of 2012.

In Sierra Leone, the Jupiter-1 exploration well discovered 30 metres of hydrocarbon pay. The Mercury-2 well intersected thick water bearing sandstone reservoirs with oil shows.

In CI-105 in Côte d'Ivoire, the Kosrou-1 well also encountered thick sandstone reservoirs with good oil shows but log analysis indicated that they were water bearing at this location and this licence has now been relinquished. This was followed by the successful Paon-1X exploration well in block CI-103 which discovered 31 metres of net oil pay in a high net-to-gross interval. This is likely to lead to further drilling in the Tullow operated licence within the next 12 months.

Whilst this exploration campaign has had mixed results so far the presence of oil shows together with thick reservoirs, albeit with oil pay in thinner reservoirs, remains encouraging for the overall exploration programme in the West African Equatorial Atlantic.

SOUTH & EAST AFRICA 

Tullow's South and East Africa regional business has exploration, appraisal and development interests in Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Namibia and Madagascar.

Uganda

In February 2012, Tullow signed two Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) relating to the Lake Albert Rift Basin with the Government of Uganda, enabling the completion of the farm-down to CNOOC and Total for a total headline consideration of $2.9 billion. Tullow, CNOOC and Total have now completed joint technical work to define the conceptual basin development plan. This involves the delivery of production volumes in excess of 200,000 bopd, options for a refinery to supply petroleum products to the local market as well as pipeline export routes to international markets. Tullow and its partners are now discussing the plans with the Government of Uganda and preparing for the next phase of pre-project definition. Major production from the Lake Albert Rift Basin is expected approximately 36 months after the plan for the basin-wide development has been approved by the Government of Uganda.

In March 2012, Tullow submitted revised field development plans for the Nzizi and Mputa fields to supply gas and crude oil to the domestic power market ahead of the full basin development. The government has also given its support for the sale of small quantities of crude oil, produced by well testing, to local industry. This is likely to start in early 2013.

Exploration and appraisal activities across the basin have ramped up significantly since February 2012 with four rigs currently active. The programme includes up to 20 exploration and appraisal wells, well testing and the acquisition of further 3D seismic and gravity data.

In EA-1 (operated by Total), a significant programme of activity is under way including appraisal and testing on the Jobi-Rii, Ngiri, Mpoyo, Gunya and Jobi-East wells. Exploration activity will commence later in the year after further seismic acquisition to high-grade well locations. A fifth rig is currently being sourced for this campaign, with material exploration prospects including Omuka and Raa.

In EA-2 (operated by Tullow), the Kigogole/Nsoga/Ngege/Ngara (KNNN) appraisal work continues on schedule with the Ngege-3, 4, 5 and 6 wells all completed and the final Ngege-7 field appraisal well due to commence soon. Testing activities have also progressed over the first half of the year with the successful completion of operations on the Kigogole and Kasamene fields.

The Kanywataba exploration well (operated by CNOOC), in the southern part of the Lake Albert Rift Basin, commenced in May 2012 and results of drilling, wireline logging and sampling show that the reservoir is water bearing. This wildcat well was drilled 20km from the nearest well control. This was the last exploration well in the southern part of the basin with this exploration licence expiring in August.

Kenya and Ethiopia

Exploration drilling in the Kenya Rift Basin commenced in January 2012 with the drilling of the Ngamia-1 wildcat well in Block 10BB. The well has been drilled to a total depth of 2,340 metres, has made a significant light oil discovery and is now being suspended for future flow testing.

Oil was encountered in sands throughout a 1,100 metre interval of sediments including a 300 metre thick section of Lokhone Shale, which has good sealing and source rock characteristics. This significant exploration result demonstrates that substantial oil generation has occurred in the South Lokichar Basin, which is one of seven related basins in the Kenya and Ethiopia rift basin acreage, each of which is similar in magnitude to the Lake Albert Rift Basin in Uganda. 

Above this important Lokhone Shale in the Upper Lokhone sands, the well encountered over 100 metres of net oil pay in a gross oil bearing sub-interval of 650 metres. Below the Lokhone Shale in the Lower Lokhone Sands, the well encountered a gross oil bearing sub-interval of some 150 metres before intersecting the basin bounding fault which resulted in the well being terminated 360 metres shallower than planned. Whilst oil has been recovered from this lower interval it is not yet possible to determine an accurate estimation of net pay due to the influence of the fault zone. Further away from the fault we expect to encounter the complete Lower Lokhone Sands section of around 250 metres and for reservoir quality to improve.

An accelerated 2D seismic infill programme has already been completed over the discovery to define the outline of the trap and an appraisal programme for the Ngamia discovery is being developed to include flow testing, a 3D seismic survey and further wells to test the extent of the Ngamia discovery away from the basin bounding fault.

The rig is now preparing to move to drill the Twiga-1 well, 30 km away on-trend in Block 13T. Once this drilling has completed it is planned to return to Ngamia-1 for flow testing and standard oil field pumping equipment is being mobilized for this test.

Over one hundred leads and prospects have now been identified in seven related basins in the acreage. Those located in the South Lokichar basin, have been substantially de-risked due to their proximity to Ngamia.

An accelerated exploration campaign is now being planned. Further 2D and 3D seismic data will be acquired and additional rigs will be mobilized, including a separate rig to drill the Paipai-1 prospect in Block 10A which is expected to commence drilling in the latter part of the third quarter 2012. In the South Omo block in Ethiopia, a drill-site for the Sabisa-1 prospect is currently under construction and a third rig is expected to arrive and commence drilling in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Whilst the Ngamia discovery has exceeded expectations it will require more exploration and appraisal activity to be completed before commerciality can be declared.

Rest of the region

Tullow elected not to drill below 2,500 metre in the Ntorya-1 well in Tanzania and has relinquished the Lindi and Mtwawa licences in the first quarter of 2012.

EUROPE, SOUTH AMERICA & ASIA

Tullow's Europe, South America and Asia regional business has exploration, appraisal, development and production interests in the UK, Netherlands, French Guiana, Guyana, Suriname, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Working interest production(1)	1H 2012 Average (boepd)	Current Production (boepd)
UK - CMS Area	10,300	11,600
UK - Thames Area	700	600
Netherlands	7,000	7,600
Europe Total	18,000	19,800
Asia Total	5,200	5,100
Europe, South America and Asia Total	23,200	24,900

⁽¹⁾ Includes condensate

Europe

Production in Europe was broadly in line with expectations in the first half of 2012 averaging 18,000 boepd. In the UK, the Ketch-10 well (block 44/28b) was completed in April 2012 and is flowing at a stable rate of 18 mmscfd. In the Caister-Murdoch-System (CMS) area, the Katy development project is on schedule to deliver first gas in December 2012 and an infill development well on the Schooner field is expected to commence drilling in September 2012. In the 26^th Licensing Round, Tullow have been awarded a 33% equity interest in Block 49/21c which contains the Vulcan South tight gas discovery with a commitment to reprocess 150 sq km of 3D seismic.

On 8 June 2012, Tullow successfully completed the acquisition of XTO's Netherland's offshore interests in the Tullow Operated E-blocks, increasing Tullow's equity. The Ensco 100 rig has been contracted to drill the Vincent and Cornelius prospects in the E-blocks with drilling expected to commence in the first half of 2013.

The non-operated business in the Netherlands, production for the first half year has been in line with expectations with high levels of activity. In February 2012, the K18-Golf Field was brought on stream, with current gross rates of 35 mmscfd; in May 2012, three velocity strings were installed in the L13-FE field, adding gross production of 12 mmscfd; and in early June 2012, the K12-B10 well was tested with a maximum flow-rate of 43 mmscfd.

In Norway, Tullow pre-qualified as an Operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf on 27 January 2012. The Group considers Norway to offer significant exploration and development potential as part of its North Atlantic margin strategy.

South America

In French Guiana, Shell formally took over Operatorship of the Guyane Maritime Licence on 1 February 2012. The Stena DrillMax drillship is expected to commence drilling the Zaedyus-2 appraisal well shortly. The well will be drilled updip of the Zaedyus-1 discovery well and is designed to appraise the existing discovery and test a deeper turbidite fan. The rig will then drill an exploration well in the Cingulata fan system. An extensive 3D seismic programme either side of the Cingulata fan system is also due to commence in July 2012.

The drilling of the Jaguar-1 well in Guyana commenced in February 2012. Drilling operations are progressing well and a result is expected during the third quarter of 2012.

In Suriname, a 3,000 sq km 3D seismic programme commenced in offshore Block 47 at the end of May 2012. Drilling commenced in the onshore Coronie Block in early 2012 and three of the five commitment wells have now been completed with oil encountered and pending evaluation.

Tullow submitted a successful bid for the 8,030 sq km offshore Block 15 in the recent held Uruguayan 2nd Bid Round. Discussions are ongoing with ANCAP in relation to finalising the PSC which is expected later in the year. The block lies in the Pelotas Basin in water depths between 2,000 and 3,000 metres. The geological plays being targeted in Uruguay are similar to the mid-Cretaceous stratigraphic turbidite plays that Tullow have targeted in West Africa and Northeast Latin America.

Asia

In Bangladesh, the Bangora field has been producing steadily at around 103 mmscfd. A re-perforation of one of the wells is planned in the second half of 2012 to restore production to the plant capacity of 120 mmscfd. 

In Pakistan, testing has completed at Jabbi-1. Although gas was encountered as expected, a commercial flow rate has not been achieved and the well will be suspended whilst technical options for achieving potential gas production are reviewed. A rig has been mobilised for the Kohat-1 well, located close to Shekhan-1 and drilling commenced in late June 2012.

In March 2012, Tullow announced its intention to begin a process to divest its Asia businesses.

CURRENTLY PLANNED 12 MONTH EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL ACTIVITY

Country	Block	Prospect/Well	Interest	Spud Date
Côte d'Ivoire	CI-103	Calao-1	45% (op)	2013
Gabon	Kiarsseny	2 Exploration Wells	52.78% (op)	Q1 2013
Ghana	Deepwater Tano	Wawa-1	49.95% (op)	In progress
		Okure-1 (prev Twen. Deep)	49.95% (op)	Q3 2012
		Sapele-1	49.95% (op)	Q4 2012
		Enyenra-6A	49.95% (op)	2013
Liberia	LB-15/16/17	Strontium-1	25%	2013
Mauritania	Various	Various	Various	H1 2013
Ethiopia	South Omo	Sabisa-1	50% (op)	Q4 2012
Kenya	13T	Twiga South	50% (op)	Q3 2012
		Kongoni-1	50% (op)	H1 2013
		Twiga North	50% (op)	Q1 2013
	10A	Paipai-1	50% (op)	Q3 2012
	L8	Mbawa-1	15% + 5%	Q3 2012
Uganda	EA-1	Jobi-D	33.33%	In progress
		Jobi-C	33.33%	Q3 2012
		Jobi-E	33.33%	Q3 2012
		Ngiri 5 appraisal wells	33.33%	H2 2012
		Gunya-B & C	33.33%	Q1 2013
		Up to 4 Jobi-East appraisal wells	33.33%	H1 2013
		Up to 5 Mpyo appraisal wells	33.33%	H1 2013
	EA-1A	Raa-A	33.33%	Q4 2012
		Omuka-A	33.33%	Q4 2012
		Alwala-A or Riwu-A	33.33%	Q4 2012
		Lyec-A	33.33%	Q4 2012
		Til-A	33.33%	Q4 2012
		Up to 3 additional contingent exploration wells	33.33%	Q4 2012
	EA-2	Ngege - 5 appraisal wells	33.33% (op)	In Progress
		Nsoga - 2 appraisal wells	33.33% (op)	Q3 2012
		Waraga-2	33.33% (op)	Q4 2012
The Netherlands	K8	K8-FC-W (308)	9.95%	In progress
	E11	Vincent   E11-1	60% (op)	Q1 2013
	E15c	Cornelis E15c-1	48% (op)	Q2 2013
	L13	Sigma-1	1.99%	2013
French Guiana	Guyane Maritime	Zaedyus-2  appraisal well	27.5%	Q3 2012
		Priodontes	27.5%	Q4 2012
		2 Exploration Wells	27.5%	Q2-Q4 2013
Guyana	Georgetown Block	Jaguar-1	30%	In progress
Suriname	Coronie	5 well campaign	40%	In progress
Pakistan	Kohat	Kohat-1	40%	In progress
	Kalchas	Kup	30%	Q1 2013

CONFERENCE CALLS

A conference call hosted by Aidan Heavey (Chief Executive), Paul McDade (Chief Operating Officer), Angus McCoss (Exploration Director) and Ian Springett (Chief Financial Officer) will be held today at 09:00 (BST).

To access the calls, please dial the appropriate number below 10 minutes before the call and ask for the Tullow Oil Trading Statement and Operational Update conference call. A replay facility will be available three hours after the conference call until 10 July 2012. The telephone numbers and access codes are:

European Conference Call		Replay Facility
UK Participants	020 7136 6283	UK Participants	020 7111 1244
Irish Participants	01 486 0922	Irish Participants	01 486 0902
Access Code	7664187	Access Code	7664187#

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

Tullow Oil plc ([phone]) Chris Perry (Investor Relations) James Arnold (Investor Relations) George Cazenove (Media Relations)

Citigate Dewe Rogerson ([phone]) Martin Jackson Kate Lehane

Murray Consultants ([phone]) Joe Murray Ed Micheau

Disclaimer

This announcement contains certain operational and financial information in relation to the first half of 2012 that is subject to final review and has not been audited. Furthermore it contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to the usual risk factors and uncertainties associated with the oil & gas exploration and production business. Whilst the Group believes the expectations reflected herein to be reasonable, the actual outcome may be materially different owing to factors either within or beyond the Group's control, and accordingly no reliance may be placed on the figures contained in such forward looking statements.

For further information please refer to our website at www.tullowoil.com.

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Ends

 

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