Q3 Pre-Close Presentation
Unilever PLC
24 September 2001
Release: Immediate
UNILEVER TELECONFERENCE PRESENTATION
The following is the presentation text for the Unilever pre-close
teleconference, given by Howard Green, head of investor relations, at 1400 hrs
GMT today (September 24, 2001).
The purpose of this teleconference is to update the market on the progress of
our business and is a precursor to our 'close' period, ahead of the quarterly
results announcement on November 2 2001. The timetable for future updates has
been reconfirmed in the advance notice of this event.
Unilever's business is one that is resilient to changes in the environment in
which we operate because we meet the everyday needs of people, everywhere. We
do recognise that the tragic events of September 11 pose particular challenges
in prestige fragrances and US foodservice, parts of our business that were
already starting to feel the impact of a poorer economic environment. Although
these two businesses represent less than 4% of our total turnover, the events
do introduce a degree of short term forecasting variability into our outlook
for sales. Notwithstanding, we have an operating plan in place that delivers
our earnings target for the year.
Our operating plan for the rest of the year is, as you would expect, very
clearly focused on our strategic priorities. Within our more cautious view of
the immediate future we are making choices as to where our A&P investment is
committed. It's behind the key drivers of long term growth and those
innovations that are expected to contribute the most to the building of brand
equity. Allied to this we continue to benefit from falling media rates and our
own ongoing media productivity initiatives.
Progress towards Path to Growth goals
So now let me turn to how we see our business progressing towards our Path to
Growth goals in Q3.
Firstly let's look at the sales line.
Before acquisitions and disposals we expect sales growth to be approaching 4%.
Within this we expect a strong contribution from price as we recover
devaluation driven cost increases in a few of our Developing and Emerging
markets. The price element is likely to be slightly in excess of 200 bps.
Including acquisition and disposals we expect sales to grow by around 13%.
Within this the contribution from the Bestfoods acquisition is partly offset
by the disposals of European Bakery, Elizabeth Arden, the Foods brands sold to
Campbell's and a further 28 transactions. The combined loss of sales from all
these disposals represents some Euro 600 million in the quarter.
Within our overall sales growth I would like to highlight the following:
* firstly, Foods is expected to grow more strongly than in the second
quarter, driven by continued growth of Spreads in Europe, the continuing
recovery in Central and Eastern Europe, and an improvement in Ice Cream
and RTD in Europe. Ice Cream is also performing well in the US and Latin
America.
* secondly, in HPC we expect a softer quarter in terms of growth for two
very specific reasons:
one, we expect to see a significant decline in Prestige fragrances where
an already weakening market will turn more negative for the reasons given
earlier.
and two, we see a slowdown in volume growth in some countries in Asia
Pacific and Latin America where our determined action to raise prices to
recover cost increases as the result of devaluations has meant we have
given up some short term volume to ensure price increases are accepted by
the trade. This approach is in line with our proven management of these
situations, and ensures that we restore margins as soon as possible in
order that we can continue to innovate, and invest behind our brands for
the benefit of the longer term.
* thirdly, as mentioned with the Q2 results announcement, the sales of the
ex-Bestfoods brands in Q3 will need to be seen against the tough
comparator last year. We do expect an improved performance compared to Q2
as the one off factors in that quarter are mitigated. Given some comment
following our second quarter results announcement, I would like to
re-emphasise two points. Firstly, market share data continues to show that
the Bestfoods brands are healthy. Secondly, that our experience of the
last 11 months fully confirms our assessment of the quality of the
Bestfoods management. This includes; a strong focus on action and
delivery; the proven ability to build and nurture global Foods brands
through a passion for food, their strength in practical product
development through their network of chefs and the excellence of the foods
service business model. These together with Unilever's deep research and
technology capability, geographic strength and marketing skills convinces
us that we have a winning combination. Our confidence in the strength of
our combined management is further reinforced by the excellent progress we
continue to make with integration.
We expect growth of the leading brands for Q3 to be around 4.5%. This measure
is for the recalibrated brand portfolio, as communicated with the half year
results.
Operating margin before exceptional items and goodwill amortisation is
expected to be ahead by around 100 bps. This improvement is driven by
procurement and restructuring savings, the Bestfoods synergy and the
enrichment due to the change in portfolio.
Operating margins have been impacted in countries where we have suffered cost
increases as the result of devaluations and have not yet fully recovered these
through price increases and by the expected Prestige and Foodservice sales
shortfall mentioned earlier. The impact of these on the operating margin is
some 70 bps.
The improvement in operating margins is after the inclusion of around Euro80
million of investment in associated costs compared with Euro29 million in the
previous year.
Review of the Regions
Before I get to the other items in the profit and loss account let me take you
on a very short tour of our regions starting first with Europe.
In Europe we expect sales to be ahead by a little over 8% with just over 3
percentage points coming from net acquisitions and disposals. Operating margin
is expected to rise by about 200 bps above last year.
In North America sales are expected to be more than 13% ahead of last year
with 12 percentage points coming from acquisitions and disposals. Operating
margin is expected to move ahead by around 80 bps.
In Africa and the Middle East, we expect to see sales moving ahead by some 15%
with around 9 percentage points coming from net acquisitions and disposals.
Operating margin is expected to be some 100 bps below the prior year quarter
primarily reflecting business conditions in Turkey.
In Asia Pacific sales are expected to move ahead by around 5%. Operating
margin is expected to be about 200 bps below the previous year, reflecting
launch activities and the margin drag from depreciating currencies.
Finally in Latin America sales are expected to grow by around 36%, with 34
percentage points coming from net acquisitions and disposals. We are seeing
some disruption to Food sales in Brazil as we go through a complex sales force
integration in Brazil. Operating margin is expected to be ahead by over 300
bps despite the lag in recovering the devaluation driven cost increases.
P&L Account
Finally let me turn to the other elements of the P&L account.
Goodwill amortisation is estimated to be Euro365 million in the quarter.
Net interest is estimated at Euro435 million.
Exceptional items for the quarter for Path to Growth and the Bestfoods
integration are forecast to be around Euro350 million before tax and around
Euro230 million after tax.
We expect the underlying tax rate in the quarter to be around 35% and I would
like to remind you that Bestfoods goodwill is not tax deductible.
The number of shares for calculating year to date EPS is 984 million NV
equivalent share units or 6.56 billion if you take the PLC equivalent share
units.
Growth in earnings per share before exceptional items and goodwill
amortisation is expected to be flat in the quarter. The full year earnings per
share growth target is planned to be achieved as we move through Q4 by:
* lower interest and the better comparative against the prior year
quarter;
* the easier comparison in operating margin due to the phasing of
associated costs;
* the full effect of previous pricing increases;
* the build up of Bestfoods synergy, and the contribution from the Path to
Growth restructuring and procurement programmes;
* lower media rates enhanced by media productivity behind our focused
activity programme.
So in summary, we continue to plan for low double digit earnings per share
growth in 2001. Our business depends on people's continuing need to eat, clean
and groom themselves, however, at this early stage no one can predict the full
consequences of the terrible events of 11th September with certainty.
With that I complete my presentation and I will now be happy to take your
questions.
-o0o-
September 24 2001
SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT: This presentation may contain forward-looking
statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act 1995). Any forward-looking statements are based on current
expectations with respect to important risk factors. It is important to note
that the actual results could materially differ from the results anticipated
in any forward-looking statements which may be contained in this presentation.
Factors which might cause forward-looking statements to differ materially from
actual results include, among other things, the overall economic, political,
social and business conditions, the demand for our goods and services,
competition in the market, fluctuations in interest rates and foreign
currencies, the impact and other uncertainties of future acquisitions and
disposals and any changes in the tax laws and other legislation and
regulation, in the jurisdictions in which we operate.
We do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements
contained in or incorporated in this presentation to reflect actual results,
changes in assumptions or in other factors which may affect any
forward-looking statements.