Monthly Investor Report

VietNam Holding Limited

24 October 2024

 

VietNam Holding Limited ("VNH" or the "Company")

Monthly Investor Report

A report detailing the activities of the Company for the month of September 2024 has been issued by Dynam Capital Limited, the investment manager of the Company. Electronic copies of the report have been made available to shareholders on the Company's website and a summary of the report is included below.

Manager Commentary: Banking on recovery

Despite devastation caused by Typhoon Yagi in early September, particularly around the Red River Delta, which mostly affected the agricultural sector, Vietnam managed to stay strong on the ever so uncertain global stage. For the first time since becoming Vietnam's president in May, To Lam toured the world throughout the month with significant visits to China, the US, Cuba and France. Lam continued to advocate Vietnam's 'bamboo diplomacy' approach to foreign policy, widely regarded as a delicate balancing act of relations between powers like the US and China in terms of maintaining autonomy and national interests. His trip to the US coincided with the United Nations General Assembly, where he met with President Biden to reaffirm the US-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. While the visit to China was significant in stabilising and enhancing Vietnam-China ties, given the neighbouring countries' long history and recent tensions in the South China Sea, it was even more telling that a Chinese delegation came to Vietnam within the same month to confirm their commitment to increasing economic ties. Lam, who was previously the minister of public security, was praised both at home and abroad for his pragmatic style of attracting further foreign investment, especially in the manufacturing and technology sectors.

There is no doubt this helped keep Vietnam's projected GDP growth for 2024 in the range of 6% and 7%, which stands out globally. The IMF currently forecasts 6.1% growth, it says is driven by strong external demand, resilient foreign direct investment (FDI), and supportive fiscal and monetary policies. HSBC recently raised its forecast to 7%, highlighting Vietnam's robust Q3 performance in 2024, especially in manufacturing and exports, which have shown significant recovery, particularly in sectors like electronics, textiles, and footwear.

The equity market reflected this nicely in September as it started to price in the brighter macroeconomic outlook. A weaker US dollar and the Federal Reserve rate cuts certainly supported the sentiment of the local market too.

As for the Fund, it was up 21.3%, versus the VNAS benchmark's 15%, for the first nine months of 2024. This performance was largely due to our largest holding, which is in FPT, one of Vietnam's leading technology companies. Its stock surged by around 60% during this period and exemplifies the opportunities in Vietnam's developing growing digital economy. But we must also note our overweight in Financial Services, particularly in Sacombank (STB) and Techcombank (TCB), with respective proportions of 4.1% and 6.4%. Both stocks saw large buy-ins, given their long-term growth with strong retail operations and focus on digital transformation, even as some banks experienced selloffs. STB reported a 12% increase in profits during the first half of 2024 (1H2024) compared to the same period last year. TCB also showcased robust performance, with a reported pre-tax profit target for 2024 that reflects an 18.4% growth year-on-year. The Fund maintains selective over weights in Banks and Retails with the expectation that they will continue to ride the stride in the second half of 2024. We also expect strong EPS growth in 2H2024 and maintain the forecast of about 20% EPS growth for 2025.

Our recent first share redemption, where ~12.6% sought to redeem (out of possible 100%) showed strong support for the fund (hence the higher than normal cash balance at month-end). The fund's discount to NAV remains the narrowest by far of the three UK listed Vietnam funds. Our AGM and Webinar is scheduled for 7th November. Register to attend the webinar here.

The Fund has also been nominated for two awards - CityWire and QuotedData - the results of both will be known in November.

For more information please contact:

Dynam Capital Limited                  

Craig Martin                                                                                       Tel: [phone]

[e-mail] |www.dynamcapital.com

www.vietnamholding.com

Cavendish Capital Markets Limited

Corporate Broker and Financial Advisor                                            Tel: [phone]      

 

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