Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 December 2011 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six Year Since
month months months to date launch*
Sterling:
Share price 0.3% -1.7% -19.5 -31.2% -26.3%
Net asset value 0.3% 0.4% -14.1 -19.4% -19.7%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 0.1% -1.7% -10.9 -18.1% -17.1%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 0.0% 4.7% -16.5 -21.6% -15.2%
US Dollars:
Net asset value -0.9% 0.2% -16.8 -20.0% -19.9%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -1.1% -1.9% -13.8 -18.7% -14.9%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -1.2% 4.4% -19.1 -17.8% -15.5%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 119.36c
Net asset value - cum income: 122.34c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 76.81p
Net asset value - cum income: 78.73p
Share price: 73.75p
Total assets (including income): £74.6m
Discount to cum income NAV: 6.3%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 2.5%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 21.2 Qatar 16.4
Industrials 17.9 Saudi Arabia 11.9
Energy 14.8 Nigeria 10.6
Consumer Staples 12.8 Kazakhstan 10.1
Telecommunications 10.9 Ukraine 6.4
Materials 5.4 United Arab Emirates 6.2
Utilities 5.3 Kuwait 6.0
Consumer Discretionary 4.8 Croatia 4.9
Healthcare 3.9 Iraq 4.8
---- Panama 3.6
Total 97.0 Argentina 3.2
==== Romania 2.0
Short positions -3.2 Bangladesh 1.9
==== Pan Africa 1.9
Oman 1.7
Pakistan 1.6
Other 3.8
----
97.0
====
Short positions -3.2
====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
28.2 31.3 30.4 31.5 30.6 31.7 31.8 30.9 31.10 30.11 31.12
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 96.5 98.0 99.9 103.2 103.3 103.6 105.2 100.7 101.1 103.4 97.0
Short - - 2.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 7.8 7.4 6.2 4.8 3.2
Gross 96.5 98.0 101.9 106.1 106.0 106.4 113.0 108.1 107.3 108.2 100.2
Net 96.5 98.0 97.9 100.3 100.6 100.8 97.4 93.3 94.9 98.6 93.8
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Al Mouwasat Saudi Arabia
Al Othaim Saudi Arabia
Amiantit Saudi Arabia
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
Copa Panama
HrvatskiTelekomunikacije Croatia
KazmunaigasExploration Kazakhstan
QatarElectricity & Water Qatar
Qatar Navigation Qatar
Zenith Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Markets
The MSCI Frontiers Index was flat in December. Of the largest markets in the
Frontiers investment universe, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia were both strong
performers, with both rising over 5%. In Nigeria, S&P upgraded its credit
rating outlook for the country from stable to positive. The ratings agency
cited the reform initiatives designed to support economic growth, reduce
reliance on oil and reduce depreciation pressure on the Naira. The decision to
move to a positive outlook has been predicated on President Jonathan's
administration to tighten monetary policy, improve corporate governance in
energy sector and the aim of reforming the controversial fuel subsidy system.
Saudi Arabia continues to see strong consumer demand spurred by solid GDP
growth. The announcement of a record budget surplus of $184bn for 2011 puts
the Kingdom in the enviable position of being able to increase development
spending across the country going into 2012, which will support infrastructure
build out and ongoing job creation.
Kenya also performed well in December. The Central Bank raised interest rates
to 18%, bringing the cumulative increase over the year to 12%. As a result the
currency continued to rally through the month as net capital outflows from the
country slowed, helped also by the decision by the IMF to release a further
$143m to help the country cope with the effects of the severe drought which has
hit the horn of Africa.
Ukraine was the weakest performer over the month, falling nearly 20%. Ukraine's
deteriorating fiscal position has weakened its hand in negotiations with Russia
over the price of gas imports, increasing the likelihood that Ukraine will have
to cede partial ownership of its pipelines, an important source of government
revenues. Pakistan also underperformed in December, falling 7%. News sources
continued to report increasing strain in US-Pakistan relations, highlighted by
boycotting of the recent Bonn Conference on the future of Afghanistan by
Pakistani officials. From an economic point of view, Pakistan continues to
look vulnerable with both the fiscal deficit and current account deficit likely
to come in above government projections. Neither does the current political
situation look benign with rumours that the military are on the brink of
mounting a coup, President Zardari having recently spent an extended period of
time receiving medical treatment in Dubai and Pakistan's former military ruler
Pervez Musharraf announcing his intention to return to Pakistan from exile in
London to contest elections if they are brought forward to 2012.
Portfolio performance
The Company's returned 0.3% and outperformed the MSCI Frontiers Index by 0.2%
(on a sterling basis with net income reinvested).
The Company's portfolio was well positioned across geographies, benefiting from
holding positions in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Qatar whilst having little
exposure to Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam and Argentina which significantly
underperformed.
The Company also outperformed on strong stock selection, helped by a position
in Al Mouwasat, Saudi Arabia's largest listed hospital operator, which is well
positioned to benefit from private and public healthcare spending and has a
consistent track record of high profitability and growth. Guinness Nigeria,
which is Nigeria's second largest brewer, rose strongly in December. In 2011,
the company's parent, global drinks giant, Diageo embarked on a $344 million
investment program in Nigeria to meet increased demand for key Guinness brands
including Harp lager. The stock has risen over 20% in 2011, outperforming the
Nigerian Market by around 40%. Gulf Keystone was another strong performer in
December as ongoing reports of Exxon's interest in increasing acreage in
Kurdistan focussed investors attention on the unrivalled potential that the
company has in this region.
Disappointing performance was seen from Panamanian airline, Copa, which fell
after reporting weaker than expected load factors. This was due to the rapid
expansion programme targeted by the company which opened a large number of new
routes this year. Kazakh financial, Halyk Bank, also fell as investors
continued to divest peripheral European assets. The recent credit rating
upgrade by S&P recognises the work Halyk have undertaken to repair their
balance sheet and cement themselves as the leading private bank in the
Kazakhstan market.
Portfolio Activity
The Company is currently holding 44 long positions and 5 short positions in
stocks across 24 markets.
During the month, the Company opened positions in Bangladesh and Vietnam as
well as adding exposure to Argentina. These markets have fallen up to 40% in
2011 and the team is now adding selectively to stocks that are trading at
extremely attractive valuations. In Bangladesh we initiated a new position in
consumer stock Marico, which is the leading producer of hair oil in the
Bangladeshi market and has been instrumental in formalising the market over the
past few years.
The Company has increased its holding in Argentine energy company YPF. We
reported last month that the company had made a large oil discovery in
November, adding close to a billion barrels of oil equivalent to reserves. In a
demonstration of the inefficiency of Frontier markets, the stock price has not
moved to fully incorporate this news. We have taken the opportunity to add to
the position which is trading on a forward PE of 8.5x with a 10% dividend
yield. We feel that the risks of operating in Argentina are adequately
priced.
The Company took profits by closing a short position in an energy company with
exposure to offshore oil exploration in East Africa. This proved to be
well-timed as the stock rose nearly 15% in December on the possibility of a
joint venture with one of the sector's 'supermajors'.
We also reduced the position in Gulf Keystone which is listed in London but has
its operations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. We still believe that the KRI
represents one of the most exciting energy opportunities globally but judged
that rumours of an impending bid from Exxon was likely to be spurious and we
took the decision to lock in some profits.
Outlook
Whilst the outlook for the global economy remains challenged we continue to
believe that Frontier markets are better positioned than Emerging markets.
Sovereign debt levels are lower than in more developed markets, giving Frontier
Governments greater ability to ensure on-going economic growth, despite the
global environment.
Some Frontier markets, which the Company had avoided completely, performed
extremely poorly in 2011. Issues of inflation and the steps taken to combat
price instability weighed on markets as diverse as Vietnam and Kenya. In
Bangladesh, confidence failed to return following the stock market crash in
January, the bubble created by excessive retail margin trading. As we move
into 2012, we believe these markets have now fallen to levels where valuations
have become interesting and have started to increase exposure to all three
markets.
We hold stocks which are expected to see strong earnings growth whilst
currently trading on low valuations with high dividend yields and so believe
that the Company is well positioned to outperform in 2012.
19 January 2012
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.