Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 January 2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six Year Since
month months months to date launch*
Sterling:
Share price 3.6% -0.2% -12.3% 3.6% -23.6%
Net asset value 2.8% 3.2% -7.1% 2.8% -17.4%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -1.0% -1.3% -7.5% -1.0% -17.9%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 9.7% 5.0% -5.9% 9.7% -7.0%
US Dollars:
Net asset value 4.4% 1.0% -10.6% 4.4% -16.4%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 0.6% -3.5% -11.1% 0.6% -16.9%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 11.3% 2.7% -9.6% 11.3% -5.9%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 124.74c
Net asset value - cum income: 124.74c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 79.05p
Net asset value - cum income: 79.05p
Share price: 74.50p
Total assets (including income): £74.9m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 5.8%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 2.5%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 26.1 Qatar 15.8
Industrials 19.2 Kazakhstan 11.8
Energy 16.0 Nigeria 11.1
Consumer Staples 13.8 Saudi Arabia 11.0
Telecommunications 11.6 Ukraine 7.1
Utilities 5.3 United Arab Emirates 6.6
Materials 5.1 Kuwait 6.0
Consumer Discretionary 4.8 Argentina 5.8
Healthcare 3.8 Iraq 5.5
Technology 0.5 Croatia 4.9
----- Panama 4.1
Total 106.2 Bangladesh 2.8
----- Pan Africa 2.6
Short positions -3.1 Romania 2.1
===== Kenya 2.0
Pakistan 1.9
Vietnam 1.7
Oman 1.6
Slovenia 1.1
Other 0.7
-----
106.2
=====
Short positions -3.1
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.3 30.4 31.5 30.6 31.7 31.8 30.9 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 98.0 99.9 103.2 103.3 103.6 105.2 100.7 101.1 103.4 97.0 106.2
Short - 2.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 7.8 7.4 6.2 4.8 3.2 3.1
Gross 98.0 101.9 106.1 106.0 106.4 113.0 108.1 107.3 108.2 100.2 109.3
Net 98.0 97.9 100.3 100.6 100.8 97.4 93.3 94.9 98.6 93.8 103.1
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Al Mouwasat Saudi Arabia
Amiantit Saudi Arabia
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
Copa Panama
First Gulf Bank United Arab Emirates
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Zenith Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Markets
The MSCI Frontiers Index was flat in January, returning 0.6% (on a US dollar basis),
although there was significant divergence in performance between countries.
Amongst the stronger performers were markets which had performed poorly in 2011
with Argentina, Pakistan and Vietnam all enjoying a strong start to the year.
In Argentina markets rallied from oversold levels following a normalisation of
the debt and currency markets. Following increased government regulation limiting
an individual's ability to take pesos out of the country and increased
restrictions on imports, capital outflows slowed. This reduced pressure on the
balance of payments, bolstering domestic liquidity and allowing the benchmark
Badlar rate to fall.
In Pakistan, the market gained over 10% as December inflation came in lower
than expected at 9.75% year-on-year stoking hopes that the Central Bank would
cut rates at their next meeting. In addition, stocks were buoyed by new tax
rules for trading stocks under which withholding tax on share sales was abolished
and capital gains tax rates were kept flat until 2014. Despite rising political
tensions between the government and the military, the likelihood of early
elections seems to have ameliorated following Pervez Musharraf's decision not
to return to Pakistan.
Vietnamese equities were also strong in January. After a year in which many
investors withdrew from the market amidst doubts surrounding the effectiveness
of economic policy, inflationary pressures have begun to moderate. With
valuations close to historic lows and high dividend yields, the improving
economic backdrop has proved to be positive for the market.
One market which failed to shake off its 2011 laggard label was Bangladesh,
which fell over 20% in January. Since the bursting of a stock market bubble
fuelled by retail margin investing, the authorities have attempted to support
the market through a number of failed initiatives. Having fallen from a
trailing price earnings ratio of around 25x to around 10x, the market is starting
to look more attractive.
Portfolio Performance
The Company recorded a very strong performance returning 4.4% and outperforming
the MSCI Frontiers Index by 3.8% (on a US dollar basis with net income reinvested).
Asset allocation was a positive contributor to performance over the month. The
Company benefited from overweight positions in Kazakhstan and underweight
positions in Kuwait, but was hurt by the underweight position in Argentina.
Stock selection was especially good over the month. The holdings in stocks
with economic activity focussed on Iraq were significant drivers of
outperformance in January. The entry of Exxon into the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
focussed investors' attention on what is one of the world's last major
under-explored onshore oil regions. The prospect of an oil law and speculation
that other supermajor oil firms may be looking to enter the region spurred
performance of some of the Company's long term holdings in the region including
Gulf Keystone which rose nearly 50% in January.
Ukrainian poultry-producing giant, MHP, also posted strong gains over the month
after reporting positive financial results for the year ending 31 December
2011. Production, sales volumes and net income all exceeded expectations,
driven in part by the strength of export markets. The company said that it had
opened new export markets in several new territories including Libya, which
continues its slow journey to normality following the overthrow of Muammar
Gaddafi. The team have added Libya to the list of potential destinations for
research trips in 2012 and are also planning to visit Myanmar.
Other stocks contributing to performance in January included Panamanian
airline, Copa, which continues to attract investors due to its dominant market
position and Saudi Arabian Industrial, Amiantit, which rose after reporting
good results, beating analyst expectations.
Detracting from performance was the position in Saudi supermarket chain, Al
Othaim. The company reported sales growth that was beneath expectations.
However, we believe that Al Othaim's position in an under-penetrated sector of
the consumer sector remains intact and despite having taken some profits, it
remains a core position for the Company.
Portfolio Activity
The Company is currently holding 44 long positions and 2 short positions in
stocks across 21 markets.
In 2011, the Company broadly avoided the worst performing countries in the
Frontier Market investment universe, which have now fallen to levels where
valuations begin to appear attractive. The Company has initiated positions in
Vietnam, Argentina and Kenya taking advantage of these reduced valuations. In
Vietnam, the company initiated a position in Kinh Do Corporation, the largest
domestic producer of moon cakes and in Argentina that Company initiated
positions in Banco Macro and Grupo Financiero Galicia.
We also sold some of the holding in Iraq-focussed energy name, Gulf Keystone
following strong outperformance. Speculation abounds that the company will be
bought by one of the larger operators entering the region. We will continue to
take profits in those periods of euphoria surrounding the stock until more
substantial news is released.
Outlook
We continue to believe in the long-term structural growth story across Frontier
Markets which we expect to be driven by stocks on cheap valuations trading in
deeply inefficient markets. Frontier Markets will not be immune to the global
environment but we believe that they are positioned better than more developed
market to create their own weather.
Going into 2012, we have been looking especially carefully at the markets which
underperformed in 2011. Whilst the issues which so weighed on markets
last year are yet to be fully resolved, we are increasingly finding pockets of
value where the risk/reward at current market levels is sufficiently attractive
for us to be increasing exposure. In this context we have initiated/added to
positions in Argentina, Kenya, Vietnam and Bangladesh.
At the same time, we continue to have confidence in holdings across Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, Nigeria and Iraq. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are two of the only
countries in the world which have both a current account and fiscal surplus
putting them in a strong position to be able to see continued strong GDP growth
spurred by government investment in infrastructure, health and education
reforms.
16 February 2012
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.brfiplc.co.uk on the internet,
"BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.