Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 May 2014 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Three Since
month months months year years launch*
Sterling:
Share price 1.7% -1.2% 8.0% 14.7% 42.0% 31.7%
Net asset value 4.8% 8.3% 12.8% 15.8% 44.6% 35.9%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 6.7% 15.3% 20.1% 16.4% 38.4% 26.8%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 4.2% 6.9% -0.5% -5.8% -7.0% -6.5%
US Dollars:
Share price 1.0% -1.1% 10.6% 26.9% 44.8% 42.0%
Net asset value 4.1% 8.4% 15.4% 28.2% 47.4% 46.3%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 6.0% 15.4% 23.0% 28.8% 41.0% 36.4%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 3.5% 7.0% 1.9% 4.3% -5.2% 0.6%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 199.97c
Net asset value - cum income: 205.72c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 119.22p
Net asset value - cum income: 122.65p
Share price: 121.00p
Total assets (including income): £187.0m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 1.3%
Gearing: 1.2%
Gearing range (as a % of gross assets): 0-20%
Net yield*: 1.1%
Ordinary shares in issue: 150,621,621
*The Company's yield based on dividends announced in the last 12 months as at
the date of the release of this announcement is 1.1% and includes the 2014
interim dividend of 2.25 cents per share announced on 20 May 2014 and payable
to shareholders on 4 July 2014. However, as previously announced, a special
dividend of 3.40c per share (representing the Company's earnings for the period
from 1 April 2013 to 30 September 2013) was paid early in 2013 to avoid revenue
dilution as a result of the Company's C-Share issue which completed on 29 September
2013. If this dividend had been paid as a final dividend for 2013, the Company's
yield would be 2.9%.
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 25.7 Kuwait 9.6
Energy 17.9 Nigeria 9.1
Telecommunications 16.8 Bangladesh 7.6
Consumer Staples 12.4 Saudi Arabia 6.8
Health Care 6.6 Kazakhstan 6.6
Consumer Discretionary 6.4 Pakistan 6.3
Industrials 5.3 Romania 5.7
Materials 4.7 Oman 5.3
Utilities 2.2 United Arab Emirates 5.3
----- Sri Lanka 4.9
Total 98.0 Iraq 4.9
----- Ukraine 4.7
Short positions -1.7 Vietnam 3.2
===== Turkmenistan 3.0
Argentina 2.9
Qatar 2.4
Slovenia 2.3
Pan Frontiers 1.5
Panama 1.3
Kyrgyzstan 1.3
Estonia 1.2
Morocco 1.1
Croatia 1.0
-----
98.0
=====
Short positions -1.7
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 28.02 31.03 30.04 31.05
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
% % % % % % % % % % % %
Long 95.9 103.2 98.9 98.8 100.4 100.5 103.3 96.6 101.8 101.6 101.6 98.0
Short 2.5 3.0 3.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.7
Gross 98.4 106.2 102.2 100.2 102.0 102.1 104.8 98.3 103.6 103.3 103.6 99.7
Net 93.4 100.2 95.6 97.4 98.8 98.9 101.8 94.9 100.0 99.9 99.6 96.3
Ten Largest Equity Investments
Company Country of Risk % of gross assets
Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait 5.1%
Zenith Bank Nigeria 4.8%
Kuwait Food Kuwait 4.2%
Halyk Bank Kazakhstan 3.8%
Emaar Properties United Arab Emirates 3.6%
MHP Ukraine 3.6%
BRD Romania 3.2%
Dragon Oil Turkmenistan 3.0%
Bank Muscat Oman 2.8%
KasMunaiGas Exploration Production Kazakhstan 2.8%
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Markets
The MSCI Frontier Market Index returned 6.0% in May, outperforming mainstream
Emerging Markets by 2.5% (all calculations in US dollars with net income
reinvested).
The strong performance of the index was in part driven by the exuberance of
investors in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates ahead of the transition from
Frontier to Emerging Market status, with both markets rising between 10 to 11%
during the month.
The Nigerian market rallied strongly in May, rising 8% over the month. Despite
tightening bank liquidity, treasury bill rates in Nigeria rates have declined
with the high rates attracting carry trade flows amidst softening inflation.
Nevertheless, the outlook for the Nigerian Naira remains challenged with
continued deterioration in foreign exchange reserves, which fell US$1.2bn in
May, and declined by US$11.2bn over the last 12 months. Following the
transition of Qatar and UAE as mentioned above, Nigeria now commands a higher
weighting in the MSCI Frontier Market Index.
Portfolio
The Company underperformed the MSCI Frontier Market Index in May, returning
4.1% compared to 6.0% for the index (on a US dollar basis with net income
reinvested).
The portfolio's underweight position in Qatar and UAE was a significant
relative detractor. The increase in valuations in Qatar and UAE damaged
relative performance as the transition date (into MSCI Emerging Markets)
approached. However, we have highlighted many times that we will not put our
clients' money at risk by investing in stocks we believe are significantly
overvalued just because they command a particular weight in an index. As such,
the portfolio did not own a number of the stocks that were displaying
bubble-like valuations while they were in the MSCI Frontier Market Index. We
note that post the transition stocks which were formerly large weights in the
index have corrected significantly including Arabtec (-38%) and Abu Dhabi
Commercial Bank (-23%) in the UAE and Masraf Al Rayan (-20%) in Qatar.
The Company's holdings in Ukraine contributed positively in May. Despite
persistent negative headlines surrounding escalation of violence and
secessionist referenda and the continuing impact on the economy, much of the
bad news was already priced into stocks.
There has been much attention on the deteriorating security situation in Iraq,
which had a negative impact on our exposure to energy companies with
significant interests in the Kurdish region of Iraq. We have a different view -
the Kurdish region remains secure and well-defended, and it no longer relies on
Iraqi government routes outside its territory for exports. The Iraqi government
increasingly requires Kurdish co-operation to ensure Iraqi stability and this
is likely to ease government opposition to continued production growth from the
region. Hence, we remain positive on these companies.
Activity
As previously indicated, we sold a substantial proportion of the Company's
holdings in Qatar and the UAE. As the time of writing, the Company holds no
locally listed stocks in either market. The Company has reinvested the capital
in Nigeria, Pakistan, Romania and Saudi Arabia.
We added to positions in Ukraine, specifically MHP, a Ukrainian poultry
producer and a long-term holding of the Company, to benefit from the
depreciation of the Hryvna as the majority of its cost base is denominated in
the local currency, whilst 40% of revenues are derived from exports. The
operations are not disrupted and the stock offers good value trading below 5x
price to normalized earnings.
We have also added to holdings in Romania, in particular financial BRD, which
is a significant overweight position. BRD's underlying franchise is
underpriced, with the stock valued on under 4x pre provision profit. Earnings
are likely to normalize as legacy asset quality problems have been increasingly
provided for following a period of restructuring.
Outlook
We remain positive on many Frontier Markets, particularly those in South Asia
and Eastern Europe, where macro-economic prospects are improving and where
valuations are still compelling. While no investment in Frontier Markets is
without risk, we highlight Bangladesh, Romania, Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka as
particularly interesting at present.
For example, we view Sri Lanka as a compelling investment opportunity:
investments in road, power and port infrastructure should promote supply-driven
economic growth; necessary adjustments to the currency and tariffs have helped
reduce the current account deficit making the external position more
sustainable. Hatton National Bank, which is a core holding for us, is valued at
just 7x forward price to earnings and 1x forward price to book valuations.
While the market is less liquid compared to other Frontier Markets, we expect
this to improve over time.
18 June 2014
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.