Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 30 November 2014 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Three Since
month months months year years launch*
Sterling:
Share price -4.0% -2.8% 1.1% 9.2% 81.2% 33.1%
Net asset value -2.1% -3.7% -2.9% 9.5% 64.8% 32.0%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -2.5% -2.6% -1.0% 19.0% 51.5% 25.6%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 1.1% -1.7% 6.2% 5.7% 17.1% -0.6%
US Dollars:
Share Price -6.0% -8.4% -5.6% 4.4% 80.6% 34.0%
Net asset value -4.2% -9.2% -9.3% 4.6% 64.3% 32.7%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -4.6% -8.2% -7.5% 13.7% 50.8% 26.1%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -1.1% -7.3% -0.8% 1.1% 16.6% -0.2%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 180.08c
Net asset value - cum income: 184.47c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 114.98p
Net asset value - cum income: 117.78p
Share price: 121.00p
Total assets (including income): £177.4m
Premium to cum-income NAV: 2.7%
Gearing: nil
Gearing range (as a % of gross assets): 0-20%
Net yield*: 3.2%
Ordinary shares in issue: 150,621,621
Ongoing charges**: 1.5%
Ongoing charges plus taxation and performance fee: 1.5%
*The Company's yield based on dividends announced in the last 12 months as at
the date of the release of this announcement is 3.2% and includes the 2014
final dividend of 4.00 cents per share declared on 1 December 2014, payable to
shareholders on 20 February and the 2014 interim dividend of 2.25 cents per
share announced on 20 May 2014 and paid to shareholders on 4 July 2014.
**Calculated as a percentage of average net assets and using expenses,
excluding performance fees and interest costs for the year ended 30 September
2014.
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 27.4 Kuwait 12.8
Consumer Staples 16.7 Pakistan 9.4
Energy 15.2 Bangladesh 9.2
Telecommunication 13.1 Sri Lanka 7.4
Consumer Discretionary 7.8 Kazakhstan 6.7
Industrials 7.2 Nigeria 6.0
Health Care 5.1 Ukraine 5.7
Utilities 3.6 Oman 5.6
Materials 1.5 Romania 5.6
Information Technology 0.3 Saudi Arabia 5.0
----- Argentina 5.0
Total 97.9 Iraq 4.0
----- Vietnam 3.6
Short positions -2.8 Morocco 3.1
===== Turkmenistan 2.8
Slovenia 2.0
Other 4.0
-----
97.9
=====
Short positions -2.8
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.12 31.01 28.02 31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10 30.11
2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
% % % % % % % % % % % %
Long 103.3 96.6 101.8 101.6 101.6 98.0 106.6 100.8 98.7 100.0 99.9 97.9
Short 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.5 2.8
Gross 104.8 98.3 103.6 103.3 103.6 99.7 108.3 102.4 100.3 100.8 101.4 100.7
Net 101.8 94.9 100.0 99.9 99.6 96.3 104.9 99.2 97.1 99.2 98.4 95.1
Ten Largest Investments
Company Country of Risk % of gross assets
Kuwait Food Kuwait 5.3%
MHP Ukraine 5.2%
Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait 5.0%
Halyk Bank Kazakhstan 3.7%
Hub Power Pakistan 3.6%
Banco Macro Argentina 3.5%
Bank Muscat Oman 3.5%
BRD Societe Generale Romania 3.2%
Maroc Telecom Morocco 3.1%
Square Pharmaceuticals Bangladesh 3.1%
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market Performance
During November, the MSCI Frontier Market Index returned -4.6% (on a US dollar
basis with net income reinvested).
The oil price was a significant driver of market returns in November. Since the
reclassification of Qatar and United Arab Emirates, the Frontier Markets Index
has had a much lower weighting in the Middle East and is less exposed to
movements in the oil price. That said, the significance of the recent move in
oil prices for energy exporters such as Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Kuwait was
sufficient to weigh heavily on index returns and markets in the three countries
fell by 11%, 8% and 6% respectively during the month. Outside the index, the
Saudi Arabian market was also impacted by oil prices, falling by 14%.
In contrast, the strongest market during the month was Kenya, rising by 5%.
Consumers in East Africa are now able to buy diesel at less than 100 Kenyan
Shillings per litre for the first time in two years. This will help curb
inflation which, having reached 20% three years ago, is now approaching 6%.
The Pakistani market also rose in November, up by 1.4%. The fall in oil prices
will reduce Pakistan's current account deficit, the funding of which had come
under pressure recently following the delay in the privatisation pipeline. In
addition, the government is likely to be able to reduce energy subsidies more
easily in this environment, a key demand of the IMF.
Bangladesh fell this month, down by 14%, despite its status as an energy
importer. The market has enjoyed a strong run in 2014, up by 40% year to date, and
short-term profit taking weighed on equities during November. Subsequent to the
month end, the market has resumed its positive trajectory.
Company performance
In November, the BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust's NAV fell by 4.2%,
outperforming the benchmark by 0.4%. (All calculations on a US dollar basis
with net income reinvested.)
Despite the weakness of the overall index, the Company benefitted from
positions which enjoyed a strong month. This included Bangladeshi biscuit
producer, Olympic Industries, which rose by 11%. The company has a superior
distribution model, benefitting from its greater scale and cheaper financing,
relative to peers.
Hub Power in Pakistan was also a strong performer, rising by 9%. Investors
expected the company to benefit indirectly from the fall in oil price which
should slow further build up of circular debt within the energy sector in
Pakistan.
Relative performance was boosted by underweight positions, particularly in
Nigeria. 95% of Nigeria's exports are oil related which has led to significant
deterioration in the balance of payments position in recent months. We remain
of the view that it is not possible to control both the price and quantity of
money and so expect that either the exchange rate will weaken significantly or
domestic interest rates will be increased substantially.
We retained some oil exposure in Iraq and Turkmenistan where we believe that
companies continue to be priced attractively despite the fall in oil price and
this detracted from performance during November.
Portfolio Activity
We initiated a position in IT services company, EPAM. Shares in the company,
which has the majority of its operations based in Belarus and Ukraine, have
suffered from the increased perception of risk across the former Soviet Union
states. Despite this, the company is growing quickly, is benefitting from the
weakness in the ruble and is trading at a significant discount to Indian
peers.
Outlook
While we did not expect the oil price to fall as sharply as it has, we are
strongly of the view that the appropriate portfolio, in any asset class, with
oil at $110 per barrel is not the right portfolio for a world with oil at $65
per barrel. We note that during the last year the percentage of the portfolio
in either direct oil exposure or listed in oil exporting countries has been
reduced by over 25%. At the same time there has been a corresponding increase
in exposure to countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam which benefit
substantially from lower oil prices. That said, the Company continues to hold
positions in companies based in energy exporting countries which do have strong
underlying fundamentals that we believe are significantly under-priced.
With correlations between Frontier Markets and Emerging/Developed Markets
remaining at low levels, we believe that Frontier Markets offer substantial
diversification benefits for international investors. Despite recent
headwinds, we believe Frontier Markets represent a compelling opportunity for
long-term investors. In addition, the combination of the countries with the
fastest growing GDP, the best demographic profiles, the lowest government debt
and a substantial commodity endowment where it is possible to invest in
companies on some of the lowest valuations in the world provides an unrivalled
investment opportunity.
11 December 2014
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on BlackRock's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.