Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK WORLD MINING TRUST plc
All information is at 31 October 2008 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three One Three Five
Month Months Year Years Years
Net asset value* (undiluted) -37.4% -57.4% -62.4% -2.1% 58.5%
Net asset value* (diluted) -37.2% -56.7% -59.5% -3.0% 55.4%
Share price* -39.3% -58.8% -62.9% -13.7% 39.6%
HSBC Global Mining Index -27.3% -48.6% -52.0% 12.4% 71.3%
Sources: BlackRock, HSBC Global Mining Index, Datastream
*Net asset value and share price performance includes the warrant reinvestment,
assuming the 2004 and 2006 bonus warrant entitlement per share was sold and the
proceeds reinvested on the first day of trading.
At month end
Net asset value Including Income Capital Only
Undiluted: 316.91p# 311.68p
Diluted: 316.91p# 311.68p
#Includes net revenue of 5.23p
Share price: 253.00p
Discount to NAV**: 18.83%
Warrant price: 8.00p
Total assets***: £591.64m
Net yield: 1.19%
Gearing^: 4.48%
Ordinary shares in issue (excluding treasury shares): 178,317,729
Warrants in issue: 8,947,605
Ordinary shares held in treasury: 14,692,800
** Discount to NAV based on capital only, fully diluted NAV.
*** Total assets include current year income.
^ Gearing is calculated based on total assets including current year income.
Sector Analysis % Total Country Analysis % Total
Assets Assets
Diversified 58.1 Latin America 31.8
Base Metals 15.9 Global 25.8
Industrial Minerals 9.1 South Africa 10.8
Platinum 7.2 USA 9.3
Gold 6.8 Australasia 8.5
Silver/Diamonds 6.4 Canada 7.0
Other 3.6 Other Africa 3.6
Net current liabilities (7.1) Indonesia 2.7
India 2.7
Europe 2.4
Emerging Asia 1.8
Other 0.7
Net current liabilities (7.1)
----- -----
100.0 100.0
===== =====
Ten Largest Equity Investments
Company
Alcoa
BHP Billiton
Impala Platinum
Industrias Penoles
Minas Buenaventura
OZ Minerals
Peabody Energy
Rio Tinto
Teck Cominco
Vale
Commenting on the markets, Graham Birch, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market review
The equity market turmoil of the previous months intensified during October and
asset prices were hit by further deleveraging and fears that the financial
crisis will severely impact the real economy. Volatility also hit an all time
high at the end of the month. The mining market continued to be weighed down by
negative market sentiment and concerns over the potential for growth in China,
the engine of commodity consumption, to be severely derailed as a result of
what has been happening in the OECD countries. The release of relatively robust
Chinese GDP data during the month, 9.9% GDP growth for the year to end
September and 9.0% in the third quarter, did little to offset the malaise. In a
strong statement to the market, the Chinese government has already started to
stimulate the economy, having enacted three interest rate cuts, removed some
demand restraining taxes and announced huge investment plans (including an
additional US$ 300 billion on the railway network, an increase of 50%). The
change of leadership in the US is likely to be accompanied by an announcement
of large spending plans (possibly one of the largest ever). The current market
conditions are also forcing a strong reaction on the supply of mined
commodities. Producers are scaling back production and future projects are
being shelved. According to some recent broker analysis, around 66% of the
mining capital expenditure planned for 2009 is at risk of being delayed if the
credit crisis persists. There were several notable announcements in this regard
in recent periods; Vale outlined production cuts of between 10% and 20% across
its products (including circa 30 million tonnes of iron ore); Alcoa shut their
Rockdale smelter and adjusted their alumina capacity whereas other producers
such as Freeport McMoran, Rio Tinto and Ferroexpo have all announced that
capital spending on growth projects is "under review". These production cuts
and the reduction of future supply growth may help support commodity prices in
the shorter term and may well be sowing the seeds for the next bull market in
commodities.
In the shorter term, the cost inflation issues that companies were facing
earlier in the year have also abated and may alleviate some pressure on
margins. The cost of diesel and steel has fallen sharply. Employees are now
more worried about retaining their jobs rather than striking for higher wages.
Also for those companies with assets located in countries such as Brazil,
Australia and South Africa, the collapse in the local exchange rate will
insulate profit margins from some of the falls in US$ commodity prices. Even
the dreaded "resource nationalism" is now becoming less of a concern.
Strategy/Outlook
The interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of
Japan and Bank of England, although positive for the medium term, haven't come
soon enough to head off a recession in the Western World over the short term.
Against this, the drivers of the commodity super cycle remain intact but with
all the distractions of the credit crisis to deal with investors are not
interested. This has left the equities trading like short term derivatives on
commodity prices when in reality they should reflect the fact that commodities
are depleting, have to be replaced, and are needed for real industrial
consumption uses and are not luxury good items. This will not escape the
attention of the mining company management and when credit markets thaw there
will surely be a feeding frenzy of M&A.
While the past few months have been bruising for most investors, we feel that
there is reason for optimism right now and clearly we are not alone. Mining
shares have seen a slight rally from their recent lows in late October and
early November. Some investors, including us, are bottom fishing and just maybe
these real assets might regain some of their recent glory. Mining shares are
"long-dated" assets which have been behaving more like "short-dated" assets in
recent months; this situation will not last forever and investors should take
advantage of it while they can.
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/its on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal).
25 November 2008