BLACKROCK WORLD MINING TRUST plc
All information is at 31 May 2009 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three One Three Five
Month Months Year Years Years
Net asset value* (undiluted) 12.4% 45.7% -46.4% 4.9% 149.6%
Net asset value* (diluted) 12.4% 45.7% -45.4% 5.9% 142.8%
Share price* 11.0% 47.8% -43.1% 10.1% 143.7%
HSBC Global Mining Index 14.2% 44.7% -32.4% 27.4% 178.3%
Sources: BlackRock, HSBC Global Mining Index, Datastream
*Net asset value and share price performance includes the warrant reinvestment,
assuming the 2004 and 2006 bonus warrant entitlement per share was sold and the
proceeds reinvested on the first day of trading.
At month end
Net asset value Including Income Capital Only
Undiluted/Diluted: 471.57p # 469.35p
#Includes net revenue of 2.22p
Share price: 416.00p
Discount to NAV**: 11.37%
Total assets***: £838.26m
Net yield: 1.32%
Gearing: 0%
Ordinary shares in issue##: 177,762,242
## Excluding 15,249,600 shares held in treasury.
** Discount to NAV based on capital only.
*** Includes current year revenue.
Sector % Total Country Analysis % Total
Assets Assets
Diversified 40.5 Latin America 30.8
Base Metals 16.2 Global 16.8
Gold 14.4 South Africa 12.0
Platinum 9.4 Australasia 9.6
Silver/Diamonds 7.4 Canada 6.5
Industrial Minerals 6.5 Other Africa 5.9
Other 2.1 USA 5.2
Net current assets 3.5 Indonesia 4.8
India 3.0
Europe 0.8
Emerging Asia 0.6
Laos 0.5
Net current assets 3.5
----- -----
100.0 100.0
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Vale
Commenting on the markets, Evy Hambro^, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market review
The month saw a strong rally in both commodities and equity markets as
investors became more confident of a potential recovery in the global economy.
A generally weaker trend to the US Dollar was also positive for commodity
prices during the month.
Commodity prices have started to stabilise in recent months: coking and thermal
coal contract prices, despite being down on 2008, were settled above market
expectations and iron ore contract prices look like they will fall within the
consensus range. Copper, nickel and zinc prices are up strongly from their lows
last year; even aluminium, which has lagged behind the other metals, is up over
10% from its low. While warehouse inventories have increased for base metals,
given the severity of the down turn, the fact that they appear to have
stabilised at or below the absolute levels seen at the bottom of the last cycle
is positive for prices going forward. It is even more encouraging when looked
at on a "days of consumption" basis - copper inventories, for example, are
currently at around four days of global consumption compared to over three
weeks during the previous bear market.
One of the reasons for this is due, on the supply side, to the rapid reaction
of the mining companies in cutting production in the face of demand
deterioration and falling commodity prices. In previous cycles production cuts
took longer to occur as each producer hoped another player would make the first
move. This change in behaviour is in part due to the industry consolidation
that has taken place over the last decade. This has allowed companies to cut
marginal production more rapidly as it now sits within a larger production base
and therefore makes less of a difference to the overall production profile of
the companies. It also reveals a discipline within the industry that has not
been seen in previous cycles and which should provide some support for
commodity prices in the future. In addition, companies have slashed capital
expenditure budgets for 2009 and 2010 in order to conserve cash in light of
debt being harder to come by. The longer term impact of this is yet to be seen,
but is likely to delay projects by at least two to three years thereby limiting
supply growth when demand recovers.
On the demand side, it is the strength of the Chinese economy that many market
participants are focusing on. The nature of China's command economy has meant
that the government's stimulus package announced last November has already
filtered down into the real economy - unlike the US. Government-driven lending
has spurred activity and consequently economic data for the first quarter
reveals a sharp turnaround in the direction of the Chinese economy: GDP and
industrial production growth rates appear to have bottomed, auto sales and
retail sales have picked up and fixed asset investment is strong. On an
annualised basis, steel production is now ahead of 2008 and imports of iron
ore, thermal coal and copper have hit record highs. This compares to the US and
Europe where economic data continues to worsen, auto-manufacturers are
declaring bankruptcy and steel companies are operating at below 50% utilisation
rates. The consequence of this is that China is virtually single-handedly
supporting current commodity price levels. An illustration of this was given to
us by the management of Vale, the world's largest iron ore producer. In 2008,
only 35% of Vale's iron ore was sold to China and 46% to the Americas and Europe:
in the first quarter of 2009, 60% was sold to China and only 17% to Europe and
America.
Strategy/Outlook
In recent weeks, we have seen a strong rally in the mining sector but we remain
cautious given the possibility of some weakness in the northern hemisphere
summer. We view this as a buying opportunity going into what we expect to be a
strong fourth quarter but for the moment we are building our positions in the
stronger diversified miners over and above the more leveraged pure plays.
The longer term picture remains the same. Our expectation is China will have
most influence over the demand picture for commodities and given its
commodity-intensive stimulus package and the broader industrialisation story we
expect China to lead the way. With respect to supply, the premature closure of
ageing mines we have seen over the last six months, combined with the cutting
of expenditure on future growth means that when demand does begin to grow,
supply will be unable to respond fast enough and thus the seeds of the next
commodities cycle have been sown.
^ Graham Birch is on sabbatical until next year.
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/its on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal).
24 June 2009
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