Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK WORLD MINING TRUST plc
All information is at 31 January 2015 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three One Three Five
Month Months Year Years Years
Net asset value -3.0% -10.2% -26.7% -54.3% -37.3%
Share price -3.1% -13.8% -33.1% -52.2% -33.1%
Euromoney Global Mining Index 0.0% -5.7% -11.5% -42.6% -29.9%
(Total return)
Sources: BlackRock, Euromoney Global Mining Index, Datastream
At month end
Net asset value including income*: 342.96p
Net asset value capital only: 328.30p
*Includes net revenue of 14.66p
Share price: 300.80p
Discount to NAV**: 12.3%
Total assets: £716.8m
Net yield***: 7.0%
Net gearing: 10.0%
Ordinary shares in issue: 177,287,242
Ordinary shares held in treasury: 15,724,600
Ongoing charges****: 1.4%
** Discount to NAV including income.
*** Based on final dividend of 14.00p per share in respect of the year ended
31 December 2013 and interim dividend of 7.00p per share in respect of the
year ended 31 December 2014.
**** Calculated as a percentage of average net assets and using expenses,
excluding finance costs for the year ended 31 December 2013.
Sector % Total Country Analysis % Total
Assets Assets
Diversified 39.9 Global 48.8
Base Metals 19.5 Latin America 12.4
Gold 13.0 Other Africa 7.8
Silver & Diamonds 8.2 Australasia 6.9
Other 3.9 South Africa 4.4
Industrial Minerals 3.7 Canada 4.3
Energy Minerals 3.1 China 3.1
Aluminium 1.3 Emerging Europe 3.0
Platinum 0.4 USA 2.2
Zinc 0.3 Indonesia 0.4
Net current assets 6.7 Net current assets 6.7
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100.0 100.0
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Ten Largest Investments % Total
Assets
Company
BHP Billiton 10.9
Rio Tinto 10.2
First Quantum Minerals 7.0
Glencore 6.8
Lundin Mining 3.9
Fresnillo 3.4
Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde 3.3
China Shenhua Energy 3.1
MMC Norilsk Nickel 2.8
Vale 2.8
Commenting on the markets, Evy Hambro, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Performance
The mining sector continued to trend lower over the month, with a 13.0% fall in
the copper price leading the sector's weakness. Having been relatively
resilient over the fourth quarter of 2014, on 14 January the copper price
plunged by more than 8.0% during Asian trading hours. A combination of the
World Bank cutting its 2015 global economic growth estimate, heightened concern
around defaults of commodity-backed loans and heavy selling pressure in the
futures market led to the copper price sliding to its lowest level since June
2009. In our view, the move was driven more by speculation than underlying
fundamentals. The other base metals were relatively flat over the period with
aluminium and nickel prices rising by 1.6% and 0.2% respectively and the zinc
price declining by 2.2%.
Soft economic data reports continued to emerge from China, including Chinese
Manufacturing PMI falling below 50 for the first time since September 2012.
This contributed to further weakness among the bulk commodities, with iron ore
(62% Fe) down by 13.3% over the month. The market is now waiting until after
the Chinese New Year for a better understanding of the strength of commodity
demand in 2015.
In contrast, the precious metals were strong performers, with gold and silver
prices up by 7.3% and 9.3% respectively. Gold saw increased demand as a
'safe-haven' asset on the back of European economic weakness, Greek election
concerns and volatility in global equity markets. The Swiss National Bank
surprised the market by reducing interest rates and removing the euro cap on
the Swiss franc. This development sent shockwaves through currency markets and
investors sought refuge in gold as an alternative currency.
Over the course of the month, a number of companies released Q4 production
results ahead of their financial results. In general, operational delivery
continues to be strong, illustrating the increased focus of management on
productivity and efficiency. In addition, there were indications of potential
further capital expenditure reductions from the sector. A good example of this
was BHP Billiton, where the market had become increasingly concerned over the
sustainability of their dividend. These concerns centred around the impact of
the decline in the oil price on the cash flow generation of their US onshore
oil and gas business. The company announced a 40% reduction in their rig count
implying lower ongoing capital expenditure versus previous guidance. With the
release of the financial results during February and March, we expect to get
more clarity from mining companies on future spending.
The Company has significant exposure to copper producers; specifically to
companies that are growing high quality production into what we believe will be
a stronger copper price environment from 2016 onwards. These stocks saw
significant share price falls as a result of the downward move in the copper
price. On the other hand, the strong US dollar gold price performance was
generally positive for the Company's gold holdings, which were further
supported by the tailwind that weaker local currencies will have on their US
dollar denominated cost base. The one exception to this was Eldorado Gold, the
Canadian listed gold producer with assets in Turkey, Greece and China. Weaker
2015 production guidance than expected, as well as the deferral by one year of
the expansion at their flagship Turkish mine in order to conserve cash, were
taken negatively by the market. In addition, towards the end of the month,
negative comments from the incoming Syriza government in Greece towards the
company's Skouries mine development worsened investor sentiment to the stock
and the share price suffered as a result.
Strategy / Outlook
We view the upcoming reporting season as a crucial moment for the sector. If
the majors are able to maintain current dividends then the significant yield
premium at which the sector trades relative to the market implies there is
downside support to share prices and it could lead to a re-rating of the sector,
just as in early 2014.
While the mining sector has underperformed the market for the past four years,
it is important to remember that the sector is cyclical and some classic signs
of a cyclical bottom are emerging. The lack of reinvestment in growth will see
the sector well positioned for the next upturn in prices once demand growth
stabilises and supply deficits emerge.
For longer-term investors we are seeing some interesting valuation
opportunities emerge in a number of the high quality producers. As commodity
markets continue to rebalance over the course of 2015, we expect a gradual
recovery in share prices. The road is likely to be volatile, leading us to
favour the high quality producers. However, given our expectation of tighter
markets in certain commodities we have maintained, and are selectively adding
to, our exposure in favoured growth plays.
All data in USD terms unless otherwise stated.
16 February 2015
ENDS
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