BLACKROCK WORLD MINING TRUST plc | ||||||||||||||
All information is at 31 October 2016 and unaudited. | ||||||||||||||
Performance at month end with net income reinvested | ||||||||||||||
One | Three | One | Three | Five | ||||||||||
Month | Months | Year | Years | Years | ||||||||||
Net asset value | 6.8% | 8.5% | 65.9% | -15.1% | -39.0% | |||||||||
Share price | 8.4% | 12.8% | 57.0% | -15.5% | -34.7% | |||||||||
Euromoney Global Mining Index | 7.0% | 8.7% | 70.4% | 0.2% | -27.3% | |||||||||
(Total return) | ||||||||||||||
Sources: BlackRock, Euromoney Global Mining Index, Datastream | ||||||||||||||
At month end | ||||||||||||||
Net asset value including income*: | 376.88p | |||||||||||||
Net asset value capital only: | 369.83p | |||||||||||||
*Includes net revenue of 7.05p | ||||||||||||||
Share price: | 327.75p | |||||||||||||
Discount to NAV**: | 13.0% | |||||||||||||
Total assets: | £754.0m | |||||||||||||
Net yield***: | 5.5% | |||||||||||||
Net gearing: | 13.2% | |||||||||||||
Ordinary shares in issue: | 176,455,242 | |||||||||||||
Ordinary shares held in treasury: | 16,556,600 | |||||||||||||
Ongoing charges****: | 1.2% | |||||||||||||
** Discount to NAV including income. *** Based on an interim dividend of 4.00p in respect of the year ending 31 December 2016 and a final dividend of 14.00p in respect of the year ended 31 December 2015. **** Calculated as a percentage of average net assets and using expenses, excluding finance costs for the year ended 31 December 2015. |
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Sector | % Total | Country Analysis | % Total | |||||||||||
Assets | Assets | |||||||||||||
Diversified | 40.9 | Global | 58.7 | |||||||||||
Gold | 20.6 | Latin America | 12.1 | |||||||||||
Copper | 18.3 | Canada | 8.1 | |||||||||||
Silver & Diamonds | 11.8 | Australasia | 7.8 | |||||||||||
Industrial Minerals | 4.8 | Other Africa | 7.5 | |||||||||||
Nickel | 3.0 | Emerging Europe | 3.2 | |||||||||||
Zinc | 0.3 | South Africa | 1.8 | |||||||||||
Iron ore | 0.1 | Indonesia | 0.3 | |||||||||||
Net current assets | 0.2 | Tanzania | 0.3 | |||||||||||
----- | Net current assets | 0.2 | ||||||||||||
100.0 | ----- | |||||||||||||
===== | 100.0 | |||||||||||||
===== | ||||||||||||||
Ten Largest Investments | ||||||||||||||
Company |
% Total Assets |
|||||||||||||
Rio Tinto | 9.4 | |||||||||||||
First Quantum Minerals | 9.3 | |||||||||||||
BHP Billiton | 8.2 | |||||||||||||
Glencore | 6.1 | |||||||||||||
Vale | 4.9 | |||||||||||||
Lundin Mining | 4.1 | |||||||||||||
Newcrest Mining | 3.3 | |||||||||||||
Teck Resources | 3.2 | |||||||||||||
Newmont Mining | 3.1 | |||||||||||||
Norilsk Nickel | 3.1 | |||||||||||||
Commenting on the markets, Evy Hambro, representing the Investment Manager noted: |
Performance |
The relatively benign (+0.5%) move in the mining sector during the month masked some significant moves in both the mined commodities and the underlying equities. The base metals saw mixed performance with nickel and copper declining 0.9% and 0.1% respectively, whilst aluminium and zinc strengthened by 4.2% and 3.2% respectively. However, the real winners during the month were among the bulk commodities as thermal coal, coking coal and iron ore rallied +38.4%, +20.8% and +16.7% respectively. This appeared to be driven by strengthening data out of China: manufacturing PMIs indicated a stabilisation in activity, consistent with a further acceleration in industrial production. In addition, there looks to be little pressure on policymakers to weaken the currency as it enters the SDR basket with the current account surplus roughly matching capital account outflows. |
Reporting got underway for the sector in October with the dominant theme being operational strength coupled with higher-than-consensus costs. Bucking this trend was copper miner, First Quantum, who reported all in sustaining costs of $1.36/lb in the third quarter versus $1.72/lb during the same period in 2015. Elsewhere, major diversified miner Rio Tinto and copper miner Antofagasta both downgraded copper production estimates for 2017, building on the supportive medium-term picture for the balance between supply and demand. |
The Company’s overweight position to silver producers was the largest detractor from relative performance during the month, as the silver price fell by 7.8%. This led to an overweight position in Fresnillo appearing among the largest detractors. However, the Company’s underweight to gold producers was a significant positive contributor to relative performance, as the gold price came under pressure as investors appeared to resume their search for yield, with the yellow metal finishing the month -3.6% lower at $1,274/oz. |
Elsewhere, those companies exposed to the bulk commodities performed particularly strongly on the back of the above mentioned commodity price moves. This had a mixed impact on performance as the Company’s overweight position in Vale and Teck contributed positively to relative returns, whilst our underweights in Fortescue and Anglo American were among the largest detractors from relative performance. |
Among the Company’s unquoted investments, on 31 October 2016 Avanco Resources released its September quarterly activities report which showed a strong set of production results that exceeded copper and gold guidance in the first full quarter of commercial production at Antas. This completes a successful ramp-up period that follows on a mine build that was on time and below budget in both USD and Brazilian Real. We expect the second royalty payment in mid-November which will be equivalent to 25% of the gold revenue and 2% of the copper and silver revenue in the quarter ended 30 September 2016. |
Strategy and Outlook |
After an extended down-cycle, January 2016 appears to have marked the bottom for the mining sector. The sector has performed strongly this year, primarily driven by commodity prices bouncing off the multi-year lows we saw at the end of 2015. Nonetheless, positioning surveys suggest investors remain cautious of the sector, given several years of severe underperformance, and the sector continues to be under-owned relative to history. Sentiment towards China has improved since the lows of Q3 2015 and the Chinese government’s stimulus package early this year has fed through into improved economic data points such as PMI figures above 50 and increases in property prices. At the same time, we have seen mining companies focus on cutting costs, reducing debt and improving balance sheets. |
Looking ahead, we expect the mining sector’s performance to remain somewhat volatile in the near-term but we see the medium to long-term outlook as positive. The situation in China has improved but overall global economic growth is likely to remain low for some time. The impact of the mining sector slashing capital expenditure and underinvesting over the past few years is beginning to be felt by global production. Finally, whilst the sector has performed well this year, it has only returned to July 2015 levels and with many of the miners trading at attractive free cash flow yields, valuations still at relative lows and commodity prices surprising to the upside, the risk of being underweight the sector remains. |
All data points are in US dollar terms unless stated otherwise. |
10 November 2016 |
ENDS |
Latest information is available by typing www.brwmplc.co.uk on the internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager’s website nor the contents of any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager’s website (or any other website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement. |