Interim Management Statement
STRATEGIC EQUITY CAPITAL PLC
This interim management statement, issued in accordance with the UK Listing
Authority's disclosure and transparency rules, relates to the period from 1
January to 31 March 2011.
Investment highlights
* Net assets per share increase by 7.9%, outperforming the FTSE Smaller
Companies ex Investment Trusts index by 7.6%.
* Portfolio companies continue to deliver strong operating performances.
* Continued rotation from mature fairly valued investments into new
attractively priced opportunities.
Financial highlights
* Net assets of 97.64p per share.
* Discount narrows significantly to 18.2%.
* Portfolio valuation remains highly attractive - price to cash flow rating
of 7.1x.
Investment Managers' Review
* The period saw a further improvement in net assets per share of 7.9%,
taking the cumulative increase over the twelve months ended 31 March 2011
to 40.9%. The Company's NAV growth has outperformed the smaller companies
index by 25.7% over this period and is now ahead of the smaller companies
market over one, three and five years.
* Performance was driven by the continued strong performance of top portfolio
holdings. Mecom, E2V and Lupus rallied 47%, 27% and 24% respectively
following solid final results, positive outlook statements and continued
upgrades to consensus earnings forecasts. These three holdings accounted
for c.7.8% of the increase in NAV in the period. Performance of other
holdings was also strong, especially RPC following the completion of the
Superfos acquisition and a subsequently positive trading statement together
with further upgrades.
* The only materially negative contribution came from Lavendon, which fell
following the cessation of bid talks in mid January. The Manager was
strongly opposed to the cash offer proposed by TVH and Ashtead, which we
believe materially undervalued the business, and worked extensively with
other shareholders to prevent it. Lavendon subsequently released final
results in March, which demonstrated strong degearing and communicated
several self help initiatives which should improve the operational and
financial performance of the business.
* Our principal engagement activity in the period involved discussions with
portfolio companies concerning their dividend policies and payout ratios.
We continue to believe that dividend growth will be a significant
contributor to re-rating of smaller companies. In addition we continued to
lobby successfully for increased research coverage of a number of portfolio
companies which "fell off the radar screen" of the sell-side during the
market turbulence of the last two years.
Portfolio Review
* The portfolio remains highly focused with 18 holdings, a slight reduction
from the prior period as toe-hold investments have been exited where we
believe there is scope to deploy further capital or where we believe better
risk rewarded returns exist elsewhere. The top 10 holdings accounted for
82.8% of net assets, broadly in line with our 80% target. At the end of the
period the portfolio was 4.5% in cash.
* Purchases over the period included selective increases in existing
portfolio holdings, predominately RPC's rights issue and Wilmington, as
well as a new investment in Kewill Systems. Kewill is a business well known
to SVGIM with a management team which has generated consistent returns for
shareholders over the past eight years. Its valuation is undemanding and
there are multiple opportunities for accelerating returns going forward.
* Sales over the period involved continued exits of mature holdings and
recycling capital to more attractive risk-reward opportunities. The
remaining stub holding in Redstone, an unsuccessful legacy investment, was
fully exited. Following exceptionally strong performance the largest
position, E2V, was reduced in order to maintain a sensible rebalance within
the portfolio.
* Despite the strong NAV performance over the period, from a valuation
perspective the portfolio remains very attractive. Our key financial metric
(calculated as operating cash flow less maintenance capital expenditures to
enterprise value), remains at c.15%, still materially above what we would
consider the long term average. On more conventional measures the median
consensus forecast PE of 10.4x, PE Growth ratio of 0.65x and price to cash
flow of 7.1x also imply an attractive combination of attractively rated
cash generative growth. The look-through gearing of the underlying
portfolio remains modest at 1.2x debt to EBITDA, a slight reduction on
prior period as the underlying portfolio companies degear.
Outlook
* Now some two years from the trough of the equity markets, earnings momentum
is starting to decelerate and profit warnings have increased, particularly
driven by high street retailers. Macro concerns remain to the fore and
inflationary concerns are rising. As is always the case, the strong
businesses with strong management teams will continue to prosper over the
medium to long term and in some cases, the current market conditions can
provide as many opportunities as risks.
* We remain wary of investing in companies which have already returned to
peak operating margins or where the possibility of disappointing turnover
growth may have increased. Our analysis of the portfolio suggests that none
of our holdings are generating peak sales or margins, which bodes well for
further gradual earnings recovery.
* The 15% earnings growth and 3% dividend yield offered by the FTSE Small Cap
Index indicates potential forward returns of some 18%, excluding any change
in ratings, which are at the low end of historic trends. We therefore
remain confident that Smaller Companies will continue to offer attractive
absolute and relative returns for the medium term.
* We continue to seek out those reasonably priced smaller companies, which
offer niche products or services, are well managed and nimble, and can
continue to create value for shareholders in excess of that achieved by the
market. As an asset class, we continue to believe that smaller companies
relative discount remains unsustainable given this point in the economic
cycle. This combined with sporadic sell side research and a contracting
base of Small Cap investors continue to allow us to find investment
opportunities which we believe will offer compelling risk adjusted returns.
* The prospects for new investments remain good, although a recent dearth of
secondary fundraisings has led to market purchases being our primary entry
mechanism. Poor levels of liquidity require patience to build target
weights without losing pricing discipline, and we are continually seeking
block transactions. The attractive valuation characteristics of and
potential returns from the existing portfolio continues to provide a high
threshold for new investments and the focused nature of the portfolio and
long investment horizon allows us to be highly selective in deploying
capital in new opportunities.
* With corporate sector balance sheets forecast to be the least geared since
1996, and falling to a 20 year low by 2012, we continue to anticipate M&A
activity to rise throughout 2011. The other three drivers of equity return:
earnings growth, re-rating and degearing all remain favourable among our
portfolio companies. The cash flow yield of the portfolio remains very
high, implying continued scope for re-rating. We remain cautiously
optimistic of further growth in the Company's Net Asset Value.
Summary
(as at 31 March 2011)
Net assets £74.96m
NAV per share 97.64p
Net cash 5.09%
Top 10 Investments
Company name (as at 31 March 2011) % of
invested
portfolio
STRATEGIC RECOVERY FUND II 15.55
E2V TECHNOLOGIES ORD GBP 0.05 11.66
RPC GROUP ORD GBP0.05 11.00
LUPUS CAPITAL ORD GBP0.05 10.10
KCOM GROUP ORD GBP0.10 9.87
MECOM GROUP ORD GBP0.6085888 8.24
LAVENDON GROUP ORD GBP0.01 7.45
4IMPRINT GROUP ORD GBX38.461538 6.87
ALLOCATE SOFTWARE ORD GBP0.05 3.95
WILMINGTON GROUP ORD GBP0.05 3.58
Sector analysis % of portfolio
Unlisted 16.67
Manufacturing 20.47
Telecoms 9.37
Technology 18.82
Retail 2.67
Media 18.77
Support services 8.14
Financial general 0.00
Leisure 0.00
Net cash 5.09
Size analysis % of portfolio
(market cap)
<£100 million 36.16
£100 - £300 million 31.12
£300 - £500 million 27.63
Greater than £500 0.00
million
Net cash 5.09
The Directors are not aware of any significant events or transactions which
have occurred between 31 March 2011 and the date of publication of this
statement which have had a material impact on the financial position of the
Company.
For further information please contact:
Adam Steiner
SVG Advisers Limited
Telephone: +44 (0)20 7010 8927 or email adam.steiner@svgcapital.com
Company website: www.strategicequitycapital.com