Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
24 March 2004
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2004
SUMMARY
The MSCI Latin American Free Index gained 2.7% in sterling terms in February,
with strong gains in Colombia, Mexico and Chile offsetting a sizeable sell-off
in Brazil during the second half of the month. This was the twelfth consecutive
month of gains for the asset class and represented an outperformance versus the
Global Emerging Markets and other global asset classes. Colombia, Chile and
Mexico rose 4.9%, 6.1% and 3.5% in sterling terms respectively. Brazil was up
only 1.7% with its currency off 1.4% against sterling. Our portfolio was up
3.1% for the month with positive stock selection in Brazil and Mexico. The NAV
rose 3.8% helped by its gearing.
From a macroeconomic and political perspective, attention in Brazil was focused
on the allegations of corruption against a former senior government official,
and on the Banks decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Chile's Central
Bank also kept interest rates intact, while Mexico's Central Bank opted to
increase the level of the corto daily restrictive mechanism. In Peru, a cabinet
reshuffle brought back former Finance Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, while in
Venezuela, attention continued to be focused on the validation of signatures
that would allow a recall referendum on President Chavez.
At the corporate level, companies across the region released fourth quarter 2003
results which were generally better than expected. Also significant to the
region and the Trust was BBVA's announced tender offer to acquire up to 40% of
Bancomer's shares at a premium.
In Mexico, despite the peso weakening 2.4% against sterling, the equity market
rebounded strongly. While our overweight position was not established until
March, positive stock picking contributed to the outperformance for the month.
Industrial production grew a surprisingly strong 2.4% year on year (yoy) in
December, the first positive yoy growth since March 2003. Fourth quarter GDP
grew a stronger than expected 2% yoy, resulting in 1.3% growth for the entire
year. On the flip side, January unemployment rate rose a higher than expected
3.8% suggesting that Mexico, like the U.S., continues to suffer from a jobless
recovery thus far. Interest rates rose for the month, following the Corto
announcement, although the 91-day Cetes rate remains at an historic low of 6.2%.
Consumer prices rose 0.8% in Brazil for the month, in line with expectations,
but too much to have expected a rate decline. COPOM (Political Monetary
Committee) minutes suggest a cautious tone regarding the core inflation path.
The Brazilian Central Bank temporarily stopped its recent practice of buying
dollars in the market as the BRL began to depreciate. The country did post a
stronger than expected US $1.6 billion trade surplus in January, the strongest
showing for a month since 1989. The country also posted a very strong US $669
million current account surplus in the first month of 2004. While the trade
side of the balance sheet remains buoyant, internal demand continues to be weak.
December industrial production grew a lower than expected 2.9% and fell 1% in
seasonally adjusted terms.
In Chile, the equity index rebounded from January to close up 6.0% in sterling
terms, despite a 3.5% weakening in the peso against the pound. Consumer prices
declined 0.2% in January, the fourth consecutive monthly decline in prices with
the result that the 12-month inflation figure fell to only 0.8%. The Chilean
economy grew 3.2% in December and 3.1% for the year which was in line with
expectations. Despite the drop in inflation, the Central Bank left the interest
rate unchanged at the February policy meeting. While much of the growth in the
economy has been thus far generated by the tradeables account (exports), we
expect the consumer side to pick up steam in the coming quarter as consumer
confidence rebounds. Thus, we have increased our weighting to be in line with
the Index.
The Argentine equity market lagged the others for the month, up 1.0% in sterling
terms, with the peso off 2.2% against the pound. Despite a surge in economic
activity, with GDP growth coming in at 8.3% for 2003, the market continues to be
unattractive for equities given the still to be resolved debt issues in most
corporates. In that vein, President Kirchner maintained his hard line regarding
his proposed 75% haircut on Argentina's defaulted debt, and the country hardened
its stance toward the IMF, causing a further sell off in equities. On a more
positive note, after a two year freeze, the government announced it will allow
utility companies to increase their power and natural gas rates by as much as
15%. The increases, which come after continued pressure from the IMF, will only
be implemented for heavy users.
Going forward we will look to reduce gearing over the next month, following the
strong run of the last year.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
29/02/04 31/01/04 29/02/04 31/01/04
84.4p 81.3p 87.7p 85.3p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 29/02/04 31/01/04
Ordinary Shares 71.00p 71.00p
Warrants 18.50p 18.25p
Discount/(Premium) % 15.8 12.7
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £38.9 million (£38.9 million).
Market exposure
31/01/04 31/12/03
%) %
EQUITIES
Argentina 0.4 -
Brazil 50.7 52.9
Chile 10.9 9.8
Mexico 35.1 35.2
Peru 1.5 1.6
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.6 99.5
Net Current Assets 1.4 0.5
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
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Based on total assets of £46.9 million (£45.5 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 29/02/04 31/01/04
16.2% 17.1%
===== =====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £40.7 million equal to 88.0% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of portfolio
America Movil Mexico 6,494 14.0
Petrobras Brazil 5,674 12.3
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 4,292 9.3
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,662 5.8
Ambev Brazil 1,985 4.3
Banco Itau Brazil 1,931 4.2
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,828 3.9
Femsa Mexico 1,567 3.4
Cemex Mexico 1,445 3.1
Cemig Cia Energy Brazil 1,253 2.7
Bco Santander Chile 1,040 2.2
Enersis Chile 1,005 2.2
Telecom de Chile Chile 954 2.1
Sider Nacional Brazil 945 2.0
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 833 1.8
Antofagasta Chile 733 1.6
Minas Buenaventura Peru 718 1.6
Alfa Mexico 698 1.5
Embraer Emp Brazil 691 1.5
Votorantim Celulos Brazil 687 1.5
Unibanco-Uniao Brazil 674 1.5
Gerdau Brazil 665 1.4
Brasil Telecom Brazil 653 1.4
Telesp Celular Brazil 653 1.4
Grupo Mexico Mexico 615 1.3
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Year-end 29 February 2004
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, One Appold
Street, London EC2A 2UU, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors
should note that the price of shares and the income from them can go down as
well as up and are not guaranteed and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC may invest in shares
traded in emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. The
use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV),
meaning that a relatively small movement either down or up in the value of the
Trust's total assets will result in a magnified movement in the same direction
of that NAV. In extreme circumstances, investors may get nothing back at all if
the fall in value is sufficiently large.
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