Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 15 June 2004 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2004 SUMMARY Latin American equities declined for a second month in a row, though the fall was significantly less than in April. The MSCI Latin American Free index fell 4.4% in sterling terms, however the region performed better than other GEMs for the month. The market was led down by Colombia and Argentina, down 15.9% and 10.9% respectively, while Brazil, Chile and Mexico also posted declines of 5.0%, 4.9% and 3.1% for the month. Venezuela, plagued by political noise regarding the presidential recall vote, fell nearly 9% for the month. The 'overhang' of US Fed interest rate hikes is still hurting the region. This concern is in addition to soaring oil prices, which weighs heavily on emerging markets and may curtail the global growth forecast. Crude oil prices surged to new highs after OPEC failed to stand behind Saudi Arabia's call to increase production. Other commodities were flat to down for the month, including copper and gold. A third concern is the projected 'slow down' in China, which has dampened investors' enthusiasm for certain commodity plays such as steel, pulp and other industrial commodities, which continues to plague Brazil. Our NAV outperformed slightly for the month, down 4.0%. Stock selection and country allocation were both positive for the month, with the overweight position in Mexico and underweights in Argentina and Colombia helping performance. Stock selection across the board was positive for the month, with Brazil the biggest contributor, followed by positive performance in Chile, Mexico and Argentina with a single stock. The major Latin currencies were all off versus sterling for the month, with the Brazilian real the big loser, falling 10.7%. The Argentine, Chilean and Colombian pesos also fell, 6.7%, 5.8% and 5.5% respectively. Rounding out the lot, the Mexican peso was down 3.2%, the Peruvian New Sol down 3.1% and the Venezuelan Bolivar continued its slide, down 3.0% for the month. On a positive note, the MSCI benchmark added five new Latin American stocks to its index as of the close of 28 May, including Klabin, Caemi and Corporacion Geo. We have positions in Caemi and Geo and is considering establishing a position in Klabin after our visit to the company in March. In Brazil, the interest rate committee left interest rates unchanged. The markets had been divided over the decision, with substantial Brazil watchers expecting a 25 b.p. cut. This, plus heightened global fears, contributed to the weakness in the real, and the widening of spreads as the C Bond widened by 85 bps to an average of 720 bps over comparable US Treasuries in May. The political season is heating up, ahead of the October municipal elections, and expectations of political noise are percolating. From the macroeconomic standpoint, the Brazilian economy rose a better than expected 2.6% in the first quarter, year on year, led by investment which was up 2.3%. Signs of a turnaround in consumption are still not apparent, as those indicators continue to lag. Despite negative unemployment data, which rose to an unexpected 13.1% in April, consumer confidence showed a strong rebound in May, rising to its highest level since February. The Trust's underweight position in Brazil proved helpful for the month, as did stock-picking. The largest detractors for the index included Petrobras, down 11.6% in sterling, Telenorte Leste, down 8.7%, Eletrobras, down 13.5% and Brazil Telecom, down 12%. We were underweight (or negative weight) in all of these negative performers. Also constructive was our overweight position in CVRD, which was the top gainer for the month, up 9% in sterling terms. The MSCI Mexico outperformed the index, falling 3.1% for the month. On a positive note, the Mexican pension fund authorities announced that it will allow pension funds to invest in principal protected equity linked notes by the end of the year. While this will not allow investment 'directly' into equities, it is a step in the right direction and the market responded favourably. On other indicators, industrial production rose a better than expected 6.4% year on year, and GDP posted a better than expected 3.7% for the quarter. Higher oil prices are a benefit to Mexico and have helped their current account, which has also been bolstered by stronger unilateral transfers. Notably, FDI was a robust $US 7.4 billion for the quarter, largely explained by BBVA's purchase of the remaining Bancomer shares. Additionally, Mexico's jobless rate improved to a better than expected 3.6% in April, a further signal that a consumer recovery is just around the corner. An overweight position in America Movil, Walmex, Corporacion Geo and Grupo Mexico contributed to our outperformance as these stocks were among the best performers for the month. Positive stock selection was achieved despite the negative sentiment surrounding Femsa (after the settlement was announced), Televisa and Cemex all of which lagged the index and are overweight positions in the portfolio. We remain confident that the Mexican overweight position is appropriate, given the lower level of risk inherent in the market (as compared to Brazil) and signs that a recovery is in the making. Our Chilean holdings contributed positively in May as several of the locally listed (and unowned) names such as Copec and CMPC fell sharply, while our largest position, in Banco Santander, an overweight, was up for the month. Despite the lackluster results for the Chilean equity market for the month, economic indicators remain positive with economic activity on the rise. Chile reported a first quarter GDP growth of 4.8%, a budget surplus equivalent to 0.4% of GDP (helped by stronger copper prices and tax collections), flat consumer prices and record low interest rates. Conversely, the Argentine equity market fell dramatically for the month, off nearly 11% in sterling terms, with the peso losing 6.7% of its value. April's industrial production surprisingly fell by 4%, declining for the first time in seven months. The Argentine government announced an energy plan to address the crisis which includes increasing export taxes on crude and refined oils. This was not well received by the market and caused Petrobras Energia, the second largest stock in the index to plummet, losing over 21% of its value. By contrast, our sole holding, Tenaris, which is an overweight, was up 3.6% for the month. GEARING We have now repaid our loan, effectively reducing the gearing to zero. While we remain generally constructive on the region, we are more cautious in the short term with rising global risk aversion. In this regard, we have gone overweight the more defensive, liquid markets, such as Mexico, which we consider less vulnerable to global uncertainty, and in Brazil, have refocused the portfolio on the dollar generators and low leveraged companies which should hold up to further currency and interest rate weakness. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/05/04 30/04/04 31/05/04 30/04/04 73.7p 76.8p 79.3p 81.7p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/05/04 30/04/04 Ordinary Shares 64.50p 72.50p Warrants 12.00p 15.00p Discount/(Premium) % 12.5 5.6 NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £35.2 million (£36.7 million). Market exposure 31/05/04 30/04/04 %) % EQUITIES Argentina 1.9 0.4 Brazil 37.9 43.2 Chile 8.4 9.6 Mexico 47.0 42.0 Peru 1.6 1.4 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 96.8 96.6 Net Current Assets 3.2 3.4 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £35.2 million (£40.7 million). GEARING Gearing at 31/05/04 30/04/04 - 10.9% ===== ===== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £30.3 million equal to 88.8% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Petrobras Brazil 3,666 10.7 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 3,547 10.4 America Movil Mexico 3,374 9.9 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,710 8.0 Telefonos de Mexico Mexico 2,532 7.4 Cemex Mexico 2,207 6.5 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,770 5.2 Femsa Mexico 1,198 3.5 Bco Santander Chile 869 2.5 Banco Itau Brazil 864 2.5 Emp Nac Electric Chile 795 2.3 Tenaris S.A Argentina 673 2.0 Bradesco Brazil 613 1.8 Enersis Chile 608 1.8 Minas Buenaventura Peru 575 1.7 Alfa Mexico 545 1.6 Cemig Cia Energy Brazil 503 1.5 Caemi Min E Metal Brazil 468 1.4 Consorcio Mexico 444 1.3 Sider Nacional Brazil 432 1.3 Grupo Mexico Mexico 415 1.2 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 410 1.2 Grupo Modelo Mexico 385 1.1 Corp Geo Mexico 356 1.0 Telesp Celular Brazil 346 1.0 For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-0520. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at www.deutsche-its.co.uk. Issued and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, One Appold Street, London EC2A 2UU, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should note that the price of shares and the income from them can go down as well as up and are not guaranteed and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC may invest in shares traded in emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. The use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV), meaning that a relatively small movement either down or up in the value of the Trust's total assets will result in a magnified movement in the same direction of that NAV. In extreme circumstances, investors may get nothing back at all if the fall in value is sufficiently large. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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