Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 28 April 2004 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2004 SUMMARY Latin American equities continued their gains in March, however were up 'only' 1.88% in sterling, underperforming the global emerging markets for the period. After twelve consecutive months of gains, the Latin markets took a turn for the worse in March, in part due to the adverse effects on markets worldwide after the terrorist attacks in Spain on 11 March. Within Latin America, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela and Mexico all outperformed - up 10.7%, 19.5%, 7.9% and 5.5% in sterling terms respectively. Brazil was flat for the month while Chile posted a negative return of 7.2%. Colombian and Mexican names dominated the list of top performers in 1Q04, with a particularly strong showing for several stocks which were overweighted in the portfolio, including America Movil (up 37.1%) , Bancomer, up (21.6%) and Femsa, (up 29.5%). Disappointing results were turned in by Ambev, which announced a merger with Interbrew and fell over 23% in sterling, and CTC, down 20.5%, which was hurt by adverse regulatory ruling on tariffs. We were overweight both of these stocks which dragged down performance. Currencies were fairly positive versus sterling for the month, with the exception of the Chilean peso which was off over 2% for the period. The Brazilian real was up 1.6%, the Mexican peso up 0.7% and the Argentine peso gained 3.6%. Our NAV was up 0.8% for the month, hurt primarily by country allocation. The overweight position in Brazil, average 51.5% weight versus the index of 45.3%, hurt performance as did a slight underweight Mexico position. Also detracting was our underweight stance in Argentina and absence of holdings in Colombia and Venezuela. Overall stock selection was negative, largely due to the Ambev sell-off. Returns in Chile suffered from our overweight positions in CTC, Enersis and Endesa after the adverse ruling on tariffs in the telecom sector hurt performance across the board. On the macroeconomic and political fronts, attention in Brazil was mostly focused on the cabinet reshuffle, ongoing allegations of corruption against the Chief of Staff Dirceu's right hand man, higher than expected inflation figures and the Central Bank's interest rate posture. (No cuts in January and February, followed by a 25 basis point cut in March.) Slow economic growth and the impact of the recent political scandal have taken a toll on President Lula's popularity rating which has fallen to 54% from 66% in December. Despite the lack of evidence of growth on the domestic front (same store sales etc. remain weak), Brazil continues to prosper on the export front where the country is posting stronger than expected results based on positive terms of trade and record volumes. In Chile, the Central Bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points and the country's sovereign debt was upgraded by Fitch. With record high copper prices, the country is enjoying a favorable terms of trade, and consumer demand is recovering. The global backdrop remains favorable toward Chile, with its low inflation, interest rate and debt levels, and fiscal house in order. Employment growth, the Achilles heel, is accelerating, and we have increased our weighting in the country to a market weight. The potential for an energy crisis and release of the stronger than expected fourth quarter GDP figures in Argentina were the prominent topics for the month in that country. Argentina also reached a last minute agreement with the IMF, preventing it from default. The manager recently added Tenaris, the global oil company tubular goods producer headquartered in Argentina, to the portfolio, on the expectation of continued good outlook for oil drilling worldwide. The political landscape in Mexico continued to be dominated by a scandal surrounding the leading contender for the 2006 presidential election, Mayor of Mexico City Manuel Lopez Obrador. Economic figures seemed to suggest a firming in the domestic economy, as witnessed by Walmex's stronger than expected same stores figures and strengthening industrial production figures. The trade deficit is coming in lower than expected, with non-oil exports up 10.5% for the first two months, indicating stronger manufacturing trends. The link to the US is still alive, as evidenced by the recent pick up in Mexican GDP on the back of higher US industrial production figures. In addition, financial sector lending to the private sector is picking up steam, off of the lows of mid-2002. At the corporate level, companies across the region released fourth quarter results which were generally in line with expectations. Corporate activity was high for the month. Telmex announced the purchase of Brazil's Embratel from MCI for US$ 360MM, a reasonable price, which was well received by the market, however did not lead to much appreciation in the stock, up 3.3% in sterling for the quarter. In other telco news, Telefonica agreed to buy Bell South's Latin assets for nearly US$6 billion plus assumed debt. Televisa announced a restructuring and spin-off of Televicentro, a recapitalization of the company and dividend payment to shareholders, all of which was positively received. On the flip side, the unfortunate announcement of a merger by Ambev, with unequal treatment of minorities caused Ambev's shares to plummet in March after the company announced a transaction with Interbrew in which controlling Ambev shareholders would exchange a portion of their equity for newly issued Interbrew shares. Owners of preferred ('PN') shares, such as ourselves, would not be included in the premium paid to Ordinary shareholders, and would be subjected to a new franchise with exposure to Canada, a slower growing market, and dilution as Ambev issues more shares to pay for their part of the transaction. The merger serves as a reminder of the risks of corporate governance in Brazil, and the inferior nature of PN shares. We are troubled by this development, in that it represents poor treatment of minority shareholders. Further, we believe it illustrates the need for Brazil to end the practice of allowing companies to issue multiple share classes with unequal rights. Our exposure to Ambev has been dramatically reduced, by market loss and manager selling, due to its impaired valuation and lack of visibility. In addition, we reiterate our position of not participating in new stock offerings unless all shareholders enjoy equal rights. Shortly after the transaction was made formal, Femsa announced it had initiated legal action against Interbrew, seeking an injunction against the sale of Labatt assets to Ambev. This further dilutes Interbrew's claim that the new Ambev would also enjoy rights to Mexico, through a partnership with Femsa, and clouds the horizon for Ambev shareholders going forward. Femsa shares rose on the news, as the company should now be able to unwind its partnership with Interbrew after a longstanding acrimonious relationship. OUTLOOK FOR SECOND QUARTER 2004 In 2004, Latin American equities should enjoy strong performance, particularly during the first six months, provided there is no protracted rise in global interest rates. Even with the eventual rise in rates, the region is much better positioned to weather the crisis versus 1994 given the now floating exchange rate regimes in most of the major economies, and current account balances which are far healthier. In addition, while the region has benefited from a weaker dollar due to its status as a commodities exporter, and the improved terms of trade, a strengthening dollar should not derail the trade picture entirely as in Brazil's case the huge trade surplus is also due to strengthening volumes and productivity gains which are longer lasting. Valuations remain supportive, with Brazil and Mexico trading below their historical averages, and major Latin companies such as Petrobras, America Movil, CVRD and Cemex trading below their global peers. With the decline in risk perception for the region, particularly as commodity prices remain buoyant and global growth picks up steam, Latin companies should enjoy positive earnings revisions and some multiple expansion, leading to healthy equity performance. We remain confident of our 'overweight' investment thesis in Brazil, particularly after our recent trip to the country in March. The dramatic improvement in country fundamentals - debt dynamics, current account, trade balance, and stability of exchange rate - has not been fully priced into the equity market. Moreover, as many economists project that China is only half-way through its growth cycle, the outlook for iron ore and steel by-products from Brazil remains positive as steel consumption trends in that country should remain on the rise. In addition, China optimism is helping fuel global sector valuations in other commodities such as oil and pulp and paper which again bolsters Brazilian companies. The key issue driving results this year will be a resumption in Brazil's economic growth, which is needed not only for equity outperformance, but also for Lula's continued credibility. There are incipient signs of a turnaround in industrial production as of the first quarter, and an increase in capital goods production (to support the export boom) suggests that investment spending is also rebounding. Consumer delinquencies are low, indicating that households have less leverage this time around, and that the pent-up demand should be triggered once there is an improvement in consumer confidence levels. Given the low levels of Brazilian sovereign spreads, and the trend toward lower interest rates, local buying of equities could be the next potential catalyst, as it was in 1997. Real interest rates are currently below 10%, an encouraging sign for the resumption of growth, and a shift from fixed income to equities. The volatility index for Brazilian equities has declined from a cyclical high in recent years, and valuation levels provide for upside. According to Morgan Stanley, currently more than 50% of Brazilian stocks in our universe trade below their historical averages - with far improved balance sheets in most cases. Our forecast for Mexico remains tied to prospects for the US market, with a pick up in momentum during the second half of the year. As expected, fourth quarter numbers showed Mexico GDP turning with US industrial production figures. The link is still alive. Low interest rates and a sound banking system should fuel a growth in mortgages, credit card sales and overall consumer finance which has been nascent for the past three years. Thus we remain overweight this market, with an emphasis on the blue chip companies aforementioned. Despite our optimism, risks remain, as witnessed in February with the sell-off in Brazil after the political scandal and lack of COPOM interest rate cut. The region remains vulnerable to external shocks, given its continued dependence on foreign capital markets to finance their deficits. Continued bouts of terrorism will weigh heavily on Latin America as will the cumulative impact of political and social tension that continue to flare up in Venezuela, Bolivia and Peru. For these reasons, we remain invested predominantly in larger capitalisation, well managed, low levered companies with proven track records. We believe that this more normalised environment for investing in 2004 will reward these companies and lead to the Trust's outperformance longer term. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/03/04 29/02/04 31/03/04 29/02/04 85.1p 84.4p 88.2p 87.7p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/03/04 29/02/04 Ordinary Shares 71.25p 71.00p Warrants 17.25p 18.50p Discount/(Premium) % 16.3 15.8 NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £40.7 million (£40.3 million). Market exposure 31/03/04 29/02/03 %) % EQUITIES Argentina 0.4 0.4 Brazil 49.1 50.7 Chile 8.5 10.9 Mexico 38.6 35.1 Peru 1.6 1.5 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.2 98.6 Net Current Assets 1.8 1.4 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £44.5 million (£46.9 million). GEARING Gearing at 31/03/04 29/02/04 9.5% 16.2% ===== ===== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £37.4 million equal to 85.6% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Petrobras Brazil 5,605 12.8 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 4,068 9.3 America Movil Mexico 3,922 9.0 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,704 6.2 Telmex Mexico 2,621 6.0 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,978 4.5 Cemex Mexico 1,670 3.8 Femsa Mexico 1,505 3.5 Cemig Brazil 1,235 2.8 Banco Itau Brazil 1,119 2.6 Bco Santander Chile 1,025 2.3 Sider Nacional Brazil 1,020 2.3 Ambev Brazil 869 2.0 Usiminas Brazil 790 1.8 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 751 1.7 Unibanco-Uniao Brazil 732 1.7 Alfa Mexico 723 1.7 Votorantim Celulose Brazil 710 1.6 Minas Buenaventura Peru 708 1.6 Telesp Celular Brazil 646 1.5 Aracruz Celulosa Brazil 639 1.5 Antofagasta Chile 621 1.4 Gerdau Brazil 599 1.4 Grupo Mexico Mexico 590 1.3 Embraer Brazil 568 1.3 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Preliminary Announcement of Results 29 April 2004 For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-0520. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at www.deutsche-its.co.uk. Issued and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, One Appold Street, London EC2A 2UU, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should note that the price of shares and the income from them can go down as well as up and are not guaranteed and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC may invest in shares traded in emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. The use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV), meaning that a relatively small movement either down or up in the value of the Trust's total assets will result in a magnified movement in the same direction of that NAV. In extreme circumstances, investors may get nothing back at all if the fall in value is sufficiently large. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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