Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
28 April 2004
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2004
SUMMARY
Latin American equities continued their gains in March, however were up 'only'
1.88% in sterling, underperforming the global emerging markets for the period.
After twelve consecutive months of gains, the Latin markets took a turn for the
worse in March, in part due to the adverse effects on markets worldwide after
the terrorist attacks in Spain on 11 March.
Within Latin America, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela and Mexico all outperformed - up
10.7%, 19.5%, 7.9% and 5.5% in sterling terms respectively. Brazil was flat for
the month while Chile posted a negative return of 7.2%. Colombian and Mexican
names dominated the list of top performers in 1Q04, with a particularly strong
showing for several stocks which were overweighted in the portfolio, including
America Movil (up 37.1%) , Bancomer, up (21.6%) and Femsa, (up 29.5%).
Disappointing results were turned in by Ambev, which announced a merger with
Interbrew and fell over 23% in sterling, and CTC, down 20.5%, which was hurt by
adverse regulatory ruling on tariffs. We were overweight both of these stocks
which dragged down performance.
Currencies were fairly positive versus sterling for the month, with the
exception of the Chilean peso which was off over 2% for the period. The
Brazilian real was up 1.6%, the Mexican peso up 0.7% and the Argentine peso
gained 3.6%.
Our NAV was up 0.8% for the month, hurt primarily by country allocation. The
overweight position in Brazil, average 51.5% weight versus the index of 45.3%,
hurt performance as did a slight underweight Mexico position. Also detracting
was our underweight stance in Argentina and absence of holdings in Colombia and
Venezuela. Overall stock selection was negative, largely due to the Ambev
sell-off. Returns in Chile suffered from our overweight positions in CTC,
Enersis and Endesa after the adverse ruling on tariffs in the telecom sector
hurt performance across the board.
On the macroeconomic and political fronts, attention in Brazil was mostly
focused on the cabinet reshuffle, ongoing allegations of corruption against the
Chief of Staff Dirceu's right hand man, higher than expected inflation figures
and the Central Bank's interest rate posture. (No cuts in January and February,
followed by a 25 basis point cut in March.) Slow economic growth and the impact
of the recent political scandal have taken a toll on President Lula's popularity
rating which has fallen to 54% from 66% in December. Despite the lack of
evidence of growth on the domestic front (same store sales etc. remain weak),
Brazil continues to prosper on the export front where the country is posting
stronger than expected results based on positive terms of trade and record
volumes.
In Chile, the Central Bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points and the
country's sovereign debt was upgraded by Fitch. With record high copper prices,
the country is enjoying a favorable terms of trade, and consumer demand is
recovering. The global backdrop remains favorable toward Chile, with its low
inflation, interest rate and debt levels, and fiscal house in order. Employment
growth, the Achilles heel, is accelerating, and we have increased our weighting
in the country to a market weight.
The potential for an energy crisis and release of the stronger than expected
fourth quarter GDP figures in Argentina were the prominent topics for the month
in that country. Argentina also reached a last minute agreement with the IMF,
preventing it from default. The manager recently added Tenaris, the global oil
company tubular goods producer headquartered in Argentina, to the portfolio, on
the expectation of continued good outlook for oil drilling worldwide.
The political landscape in Mexico continued to be dominated by a scandal
surrounding the leading contender for the 2006 presidential election, Mayor of
Mexico City Manuel Lopez Obrador. Economic figures seemed to suggest a
firming in the domestic economy, as witnessed by Walmex's stronger than expected
same stores figures and strengthening industrial production figures. The trade
deficit is coming in lower than expected, with non-oil exports up 10.5% for the
first two months, indicating stronger manufacturing trends. The link to the US
is still alive, as evidenced by the recent pick up in Mexican GDP on the back of
higher US industrial production figures. In addition, financial sector lending
to the private sector is picking up steam, off of the lows of mid-2002.
At the corporate level, companies across the region released fourth quarter
results which were generally in line with expectations. Corporate activity was
high for the month. Telmex announced the purchase of Brazil's Embratel from MCI
for US$ 360MM, a reasonable price, which was well received by the market,
however did not lead to much appreciation in the stock, up 3.3% in sterling for
the quarter. In other telco news, Telefonica agreed to buy Bell South's Latin
assets for nearly US$6 billion plus assumed debt. Televisa announced a
restructuring and spin-off of Televicentro, a recapitalization of the company
and dividend payment to shareholders, all of which was positively received.
On the flip side, the unfortunate announcement of a merger by Ambev, with
unequal treatment of minorities caused Ambev's shares to plummet in March after
the company announced a transaction with Interbrew in which controlling Ambev
shareholders would exchange a portion of their equity for newly issued Interbrew
shares. Owners of preferred ('PN') shares, such as ourselves, would not be
included in the premium paid to Ordinary shareholders, and would be subjected to
a new franchise with exposure to Canada, a slower growing market, and dilution
as Ambev issues more shares to pay for their part of the transaction. The
merger serves as a reminder of the risks of corporate governance in Brazil, and
the inferior nature of PN shares. We are troubled by this development, in that
it represents poor treatment of minority shareholders. Further, we believe it
illustrates the need for Brazil to end the practice of allowing companies to
issue multiple share classes with unequal rights. Our exposure to Ambev has
been dramatically reduced, by market loss and manager selling, due to its
impaired valuation and lack of visibility. In addition, we reiterate our
position of not participating in new stock offerings unless all shareholders
enjoy equal rights.
Shortly after the transaction was made formal, Femsa announced it had initiated
legal action against Interbrew, seeking an injunction against the sale of Labatt
assets to Ambev. This further dilutes Interbrew's claim that the new Ambev
would also enjoy rights to Mexico, through a partnership with Femsa, and clouds
the horizon for Ambev shareholders going forward. Femsa shares rose on the
news, as the company should now be able to unwind its partnership with Interbrew
after a longstanding acrimonious relationship.
OUTLOOK FOR SECOND QUARTER 2004
In 2004, Latin American equities should enjoy strong performance, particularly
during the first six months, provided there is no protracted rise in global
interest rates. Even with the eventual rise in rates, the region is much better
positioned to weather the crisis versus 1994 given the now floating exchange
rate regimes in most of the major economies, and current account balances which
are far healthier. In addition, while the region has benefited from a weaker
dollar due to its status as a commodities exporter, and the improved terms of
trade, a strengthening dollar should not derail the trade picture entirely as in
Brazil's case the huge trade surplus is also due to strengthening volumes and
productivity gains which are longer lasting.
Valuations remain supportive, with Brazil and Mexico trading below their
historical averages, and major Latin companies such as Petrobras, America Movil,
CVRD and Cemex trading below their global peers. With the decline in risk
perception for the region, particularly as commodity prices remain buoyant and
global growth picks up steam, Latin companies should enjoy positive earnings
revisions and some multiple expansion, leading to healthy equity performance.
We remain confident of our 'overweight' investment thesis in Brazil,
particularly after our recent trip to the country in March. The dramatic
improvement in country fundamentals - debt dynamics, current account, trade
balance, and stability of exchange rate - has not been fully priced into the
equity market. Moreover, as many economists project that China is only half-way
through its growth cycle, the outlook for iron ore and steel by-products from
Brazil remains positive as steel consumption trends in that country should
remain on the rise. In addition, China optimism is helping fuel global sector
valuations in other commodities such as oil and pulp and paper which again
bolsters Brazilian companies.
The key issue driving results this year will be a resumption in Brazil's
economic growth, which is needed not only for equity outperformance, but also
for Lula's continued credibility. There are incipient signs of a turnaround in
industrial production as of the first quarter, and an increase in capital goods
production (to support the export boom) suggests that investment spending is
also rebounding. Consumer delinquencies are low, indicating that households
have less leverage this time around, and that the pent-up demand should be
triggered once there is an improvement in consumer confidence levels.
Given the low levels of Brazilian sovereign spreads, and the trend toward lower
interest rates, local buying of equities could be the next potential catalyst,
as it was in 1997. Real interest rates are currently below 10%, an encouraging
sign for the resumption of growth, and a shift from fixed income to equities.
The volatility index for Brazilian equities has declined from a cyclical high in
recent years, and valuation levels provide for upside. According to Morgan
Stanley, currently more than 50% of Brazilian stocks in our universe trade below
their historical averages - with far improved balance sheets in most cases.
Our forecast for Mexico remains tied to prospects for the US market, with a pick
up in momentum during the second half of the year. As expected, fourth quarter
numbers showed Mexico GDP turning with US industrial production figures. The
link is still alive. Low interest rates and a sound banking system should fuel
a growth in mortgages, credit card sales and overall consumer finance which has
been nascent for the past three years. Thus we remain overweight this market,
with an emphasis on the blue chip companies aforementioned.
Despite our optimism, risks remain, as witnessed in February with the sell-off
in Brazil after the political scandal and lack of COPOM interest rate cut. The
region remains vulnerable to external shocks, given its continued dependence on
foreign capital markets to finance their deficits. Continued bouts of terrorism
will weigh heavily on Latin America as will the cumulative impact of political
and social tension that continue to flare up in Venezuela, Bolivia and Peru. For
these reasons, we remain invested predominantly in larger capitalisation, well
managed, low levered companies with proven track records. We believe that this
more normalised environment for investing in 2004 will reward these companies
and lead to the Trust's outperformance longer term.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/03/04 29/02/04 31/03/04 29/02/04
85.1p 84.4p 88.2p 87.7p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/03/04 29/02/04
Ordinary Shares 71.25p 71.00p
Warrants 17.25p 18.50p
Discount/(Premium) % 16.3 15.8
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £40.7 million (£40.3 million).
Market exposure
31/03/04 29/02/03
%) %
EQUITIES
Argentina 0.4 0.4
Brazil 49.1 50.7
Chile 8.5 10.9
Mexico 38.6 35.1
Peru 1.6 1.5
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.2 98.6
Net Current Assets 1.8 1.4
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
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Based on total assets of £44.5 million (£46.9 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/03/04 29/02/04
9.5% 16.2%
===== =====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £37.4 million equal to 85.6% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 5,605 12.8
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 4,068 9.3
America Movil Mexico 3,922 9.0
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,704 6.2
Telmex Mexico 2,621 6.0
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,978 4.5
Cemex Mexico 1,670 3.8
Femsa Mexico 1,505 3.5
Cemig Brazil 1,235 2.8
Banco Itau Brazil 1,119 2.6
Bco Santander Chile 1,025 2.3
Sider Nacional Brazil 1,020 2.3
Ambev Brazil 869 2.0
Usiminas Brazil 790 1.8
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 751 1.7
Unibanco-Uniao Brazil 732 1.7
Alfa Mexico 723 1.7
Votorantim Celulose Brazil 710 1.6
Minas Buenaventura Peru 708 1.6
Telesp Celular Brazil 646 1.5
Aracruz Celulosa Brazil 639 1.5
Antofagasta Chile 621 1.4
Gerdau Brazil 599 1.4
Grupo Mexico Mexico 590 1.3
Embraer Brazil 568 1.3
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Preliminary Announcement of Results 29 April 2004
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, One Appold
Street, London EC2A 2UU, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors
should note that the price of shares and the income from them can go down as
well as up and are not guaranteed and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC may invest in shares
traded in emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. The
use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV),
meaning that a relatively small movement either down or up in the value of the
Trust's total assets will result in a magnified movement in the same direction
of that NAV. In extreme circumstances, investors may get nothing back at all if
the fall in value is sufficiently large.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange