Report for the Month of January 2000

Morgan Grenfell Lat Amer Co Tst PLC 11 February 2000 The Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust supports the AITC its campaign Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2000 SUMMARY After the powerful rally seen in Q499, January witnessed a correction in the Latin American markets, which sold off towards the end of the month on US interest rate concerns. For the month, MSCI Latin America Free fell 4.8% in sterling terms. Profit-taking was undoubtedly a factor; the biggest falls were seen in Mexico and Brazil, which were the strongest markets at the end of last year. The rally in telecommunications stocks continued, driven by the announcement by Telefonica de Espana (TEF) of a $20bn tender offer for the remaining shares in four of its quoted Latin American subsidiaries, Telefonica de Argentina, Telefonica del Peru, Telesp Participacoes and Telesudeste Celular. Speculation centred on whether other foreign telecoms companies (such as Telecom Italia) would follow suit, and also as to what would be the impact on local stock markets, in some cases now deprived of one of their largest and most liquid shares. During the month, our NAV fell by 6.5%, underperforming the index. The main factors behind the underperformance were our underweight in Argentina and the relative underperformance of our holdings in Brazil and Mexico. Our share price, however, was flat at 78.25p as the discount narrowed significantly. MEXICO The Mexican market fell back sharply in late January to close the month down 10.67%. Most of the fall was caused by concerns over the likelihood of more rate rises in the US, after the release of statistics showing accelerating Q499 GDP growth and an uptick in inflation indicators. In Mexico itself, fears developed of rising inflation in 2000 after the country's leading brewers announced 16% price rises, well above the hawkish Central Bank's target inflation rate of 10.7%. Monetary policy was tightened in response, but all signs are that the economy is accelerating (industrial production and retail sales both rose strongly in November) and manufacturers are attempting to regain some pricing power. The Q4 earnings season looks to have been very positive. We visited Mexico in late January and will be making some changes to our portfolio as a result. BRAZIL The Brazilian index fell 4.8% during the month, again tracking Wall Street nervousness. This was despite some significantly positive developments: the approval of the Fiscal Responsibility Law by the Lower House, confirmation of lower inflation figures for December, a strong rise in November industrial production, and falling unemployment in Sao Paulo (from 18.6% to 17.5%). These factors helped President Cardoso's popularity ratings to improve. Brazil was also able to place a $1bn 20 year global bond issue at a spread of T+650bp, its first long term issue since the Asian crisis. Interest rates remained unchanged during the month at 19%, indicating COPOM is still proceeding cautiously. Most stock market activity was concentrated in the telecoms sector, where TEF's bid for Telesp at a 40% premium caused a re- rating among other shares. During the month, we added a position in Unibanco, which we believe should benefit from higher lending growth in 2000 and is also a candidate to acquire the Sao Paulo state bank, Banespa. This was funded by reducing some of our Brazilian overweights. CHILE The Chilean market performed well in January, recording a rise of 4.2%. The January 16 presidential election was won by Ricardo Lagos, who has since made a number of well-received Cabinet appointments. The economy seems to be well on its way to recovery; GDP growth, industrial production and unemployment indexes are all signalling a strong improvement in the last two months of the year. Inflation closed 1999 at an all-time low of 2.3%, due to the depressed level of economic activity. This is however likely to have been its bottom; and in fact in a precautionary move which took many observers by surprise, the Central Bank raised interest rates in January by 0.25% to 5.25%, indicating it believes rates no longer need to stay at such stimulative levels. In the stock market, TEF indicated it would not be extending the buyout of shares in certain subsidiaries to its Chilean subsidiary CTC, where it is engaged in a dispute with local pension funds over the Terra Networks transaction. We made no changes to the portfolio over the month. ARGENTINA The Argentine market also outperformed the region in January, rising 4.2% overall. Much of the strong performance can be attributed to TEF's bid for TAR, one of the index's largest and most liquid shares, and speculation as to where local investors might redeploy their cash. The fund, however, did not participate in this rally as we have not owned shares in TAR for some time due to fundamental scepticism over the investment case. There was also good macroeconomic news in the shape of a $7.4bn 3-year standby agreement announced with the IMF, lower local interest rates and positive industrial production figures for Q499. However we remain cautious over the likely effect of the government's fiscal tightening on the outlook for GDP growth. We made no changes to the portfolio over the month. ANDEAN MARKETS The Andean markets outperformed the region in January. Colombia and Peru both rose strongly, up 12% and 10.8% respectively, helped in Colombia's case by much lower local interest rates (3% in real terms) helping the tentative recovery, and in Peru by the impact of TEF's bid for market bellwether TDP. It remains to be seen whether local pension funds will be allowed to keep the shares in TEF they will receive in exchange for TDP, as current regulations severely limit holdings in foreign companies. The Venezuela market declined by 4.2% in January. Inflation for 1999 was announced at 20%, a 13-year low, as a result of the 1999 recession in which GDP fell 7.2%. Politics remains centre stage, and held back the market despite the rise in the oil price. During the month, we sold our holding in Latin American trade bank, Bladex, in order to reinvest it in more mainstream opportunities. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/01/00 31/12/99 31/01/00 31/12/99 90.3p 96.6p 92.0p 97.2p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/01/00 31/12/99 Ordinary Shares 78.25p 78.25p Warrants 25.00p 28.75p Market exposure 31/01/00 31/12/99 EQUITIES Argentina 3.9 3.7 Brazil 37.5 36.7 Chile 11.2 9.6 Colombia 0.8 0.7 Mexico 41.7 43.7 Peru 3.6 3.4 Other - 1.0 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.7 98.8 Net Current Assets 1.3 1.2 ------ ------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 ------ ------- Based on total assets less current liabilities of £55.4 million (£59.9 million). GEARING Borrowings and Gearing at 31/01/00 31/12/99 £000's £000's NIL NIL ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £44.4 million equal to 81.2% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 7,819 14.3 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,352 6.1 Tele Centro Sul Brazil 2,402 4.4 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,274 4.2 Telesp Brazil 1,875 3.4 Petrobras Brazil 1,844 3.4 Banco Itau Brazil 1,707 3.1 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,678 3.1 Banamex Mexico 1,636 3.0 Quinenco Chile 1,471 2.7 Femsa Mexico 1,459 2.7 Telecom de Chile Chile 1,430 2.6 Brahma Brazil 1,421 2.6 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,397 2.6 Gerdau Brazil 1,380 2.5 Unibanco Brazil 1,337 2.4 Banco de Galicia Argentina 1,328 2.4 Soriana Mexico 1,308 2.4 Cemex Mexico 1,287 2.4 Alfa Mexico 1,231 2.3 Embratel Brazil 1,167 2.1 Desc Mexico 1,003 1.8 Gissa Mexico 894 1.6 D & S Chile 875 1.6 Kimberly-Clark Mexico 830 1.5 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Year End 29 February 2000 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 0207-545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 0207-545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com Issued by Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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