Report for the Month of January 2000
Morgan Grenfell Lat Amer Co Tst PLC
11 February 2000
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Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2000
SUMMARY
After the powerful rally seen in Q499, January witnessed a correction in the
Latin American markets, which sold off towards the end of the month on US
interest rate concerns. For the month, MSCI Latin America Free fell 4.8% in
sterling terms. Profit-taking was undoubtedly a factor; the biggest falls
were seen in Mexico and Brazil, which were the strongest markets at the end of
last year.
The rally in telecommunications stocks continued, driven by the announcement
by Telefonica de Espana (TEF) of a $20bn tender offer for the remaining shares
in four of its quoted Latin American subsidiaries, Telefonica de Argentina,
Telefonica del Peru, Telesp Participacoes and Telesudeste Celular.
Speculation centred on whether other foreign telecoms companies (such as
Telecom Italia) would follow suit, and also as to what would be the impact on
local stock markets, in some cases now deprived of one of their largest and
most liquid shares.
During the month, our NAV fell by 6.5%, underperforming the index. The main
factors behind the underperformance were our underweight in Argentina and the
relative underperformance of our holdings in Brazil and Mexico. Our share
price, however, was flat at 78.25p as the discount narrowed significantly.
MEXICO
The Mexican market fell back sharply in late January to close the month down
10.67%. Most of the fall was caused by concerns over the likelihood of more
rate rises in the US, after the release of statistics showing accelerating
Q499 GDP growth and an uptick in inflation indicators. In Mexico itself,
fears developed of rising inflation in 2000 after the country's leading
brewers announced 16% price rises, well above the hawkish Central Bank's
target inflation rate of 10.7%. Monetary policy was tightened in response,
but all signs are that the economy is accelerating (industrial production and
retail sales both rose strongly in November) and manufacturers are attempting
to regain some pricing power. The Q4 earnings season looks to have been very
positive. We visited Mexico in late January and will be making some changes
to our portfolio as a result.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian index fell 4.8% during the month, again tracking Wall Street
nervousness. This was despite some significantly positive developments: the
approval of the Fiscal Responsibility Law by the Lower House, confirmation of
lower inflation figures for December, a strong rise in November industrial
production, and falling unemployment in Sao Paulo (from 18.6% to 17.5%).
These factors helped President Cardoso's popularity ratings to improve.
Brazil was also able to place a $1bn 20 year global bond issue at a spread of
T+650bp, its first long term issue since the Asian crisis. Interest rates
remained unchanged during the month at 19%, indicating COPOM is still
proceeding cautiously. Most stock market activity was concentrated in the
telecoms sector, where TEF's bid for Telesp at a 40% premium caused a re-
rating among other shares.
During the month, we added a position in Unibanco, which we believe should
benefit from higher lending growth in 2000 and is also a candidate to acquire
the Sao Paulo state bank, Banespa. This was funded by reducing some of our
Brazilian overweights.
CHILE
The Chilean market performed well in January, recording a rise of 4.2%. The
January 16 presidential election was won by Ricardo Lagos, who has since made
a number of well-received Cabinet appointments. The economy seems to be well
on its way to recovery; GDP growth, industrial production and unemployment
indexes are all signalling a strong improvement in the last two months of the
year. Inflation closed 1999 at an all-time low of 2.3%, due to the depressed
level of economic activity. This is however likely to have been its bottom;
and in fact in a precautionary move which took many observers by surprise, the
Central Bank raised interest rates in January by 0.25% to 5.25%, indicating it
believes rates no longer need to stay at such stimulative levels.
In the stock market, TEF indicated it would not be extending the buyout of
shares in certain subsidiaries to its Chilean subsidiary CTC, where it is
engaged in a dispute with local pension funds over the Terra Networks
transaction.
We made no changes to the portfolio over the month.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine market also outperformed the region in January, rising 4.2%
overall. Much of the strong performance can be attributed to TEF's bid for
TAR, one of the index's largest and most liquid shares, and speculation as to
where local investors might redeploy their cash. The fund, however, did not
participate in this rally as we have not owned shares in TAR for some time due
to fundamental scepticism over the investment case. There was also good
macroeconomic news in the shape of a $7.4bn 3-year standby agreement announced
with the IMF, lower local interest rates and positive industrial production
figures for Q499. However we remain cautious over the likely effect of the
government's fiscal tightening on the outlook for GDP growth.
We made no changes to the portfolio over the month.
ANDEAN MARKETS
The Andean markets outperformed the region in January. Colombia and Peru both
rose strongly, up 12% and 10.8% respectively, helped in Colombia's case by
much lower local interest rates (3% in real terms) helping the tentative
recovery, and in Peru by the impact of TEF's bid for market bellwether TDP.
It remains to be seen whether local pension funds will be allowed to keep the
shares in TEF they will receive in exchange for TDP, as current regulations
severely limit holdings in foreign companies. The Venezuela market declined
by 4.2% in January. Inflation for 1999 was announced at 20%, a 13-year low,
as a result of the 1999 recession in which GDP fell 7.2%. Politics remains
centre stage, and held back the market despite the rise in the oil price.
During the month, we sold our holding in Latin American trade bank, Bladex, in
order to reinvest it in more mainstream opportunities.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/01/00 31/12/99 31/01/00 31/12/99
90.3p 96.6p 92.0p 97.2p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/01/00 31/12/99
Ordinary Shares 78.25p 78.25p
Warrants 25.00p 28.75p
Market exposure
31/01/00 31/12/99
EQUITIES
Argentina 3.9 3.7
Brazil 37.5 36.7
Chile 11.2 9.6
Colombia 0.8 0.7
Mexico 41.7 43.7
Peru 3.6 3.4
Other - 1.0
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.7 98.8
Net Current Assets 1.3 1.2
------ -------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
------ -------
Based on total assets less current liabilities of £55.4 million (£59.9
million).
GEARING
Borrowings and Gearing at 31/01/00 31/12/99
£000's £000's
NIL NIL
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £44.4 million equal to 81.2% of total
portfolio)
% of
Country £000's portfolio
Telmex Mexico 7,819 14.3
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,352 6.1
Tele Centro Sul Brazil 2,402 4.4
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,274 4.2
Telesp Brazil 1,875 3.4
Petrobras Brazil 1,844 3.4
Banco Itau Brazil 1,707 3.1
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,678 3.1
Banamex Mexico 1,636 3.0
Quinenco Chile 1,471 2.7
Femsa Mexico 1,459 2.7
Telecom de Chile Chile 1,430 2.6
Brahma Brazil 1,421 2.6
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,397 2.6
Gerdau Brazil 1,380 2.5
Unibanco Brazil 1,337 2.4
Banco de Galicia Argentina 1,328 2.4
Soriana Mexico 1,308 2.4
Cemex Mexico 1,287 2.4
Alfa Mexico 1,231 2.3
Embratel Brazil 1,167 2.1
Desc Mexico 1,003 1.8
Gissa Mexico 894 1.6
D & S Chile 875 1.6
Kimberly-Clark Mexico 830 1.5
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Year End 29 February 2000
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 0207-545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 0207-545-0520, e-mail address:
mark.pope@db.com
Issued by Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by
Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment
Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Morgan Grenfell Latin
American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise
and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks
associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or
volatile.