Final Results
Aurora Investment Trust plc
PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF RESULTS
For the year ended 28 February 2007
OBJECTIVE
Capital appreciation through investments listed mainly on the London
Stock Exchange
POLICY
To invest primarily in equities but with some exposure also to Fixed
Interest. In general the portfolio will be weighted towards the
larger rather than smaller capitalised stocks. A distinctive feature
is an emphasis on investments in companies with exposure to economies
growing at a faster rate than the UK.
BENCHMARKS
Treasury 7.25% Stock 2007
The FTSE All-Share Index
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Year ended 28 Since launch
February 2007 (13/3/1997)
Share Price (total return)^ +4.7% +150.0%
Net Asset Value (NAV)^^ +0.8% +152.5%*
Treasury 7.25% stock 2007 (total +3.5% +19.6%
return)^
FTSE All-Share Index +8.2% +48.3%
^dividends/interest not reinvested
^^ before final dividend
*by reference to a starting value of 97.78p (net of launch expenses)
CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT
The Year's Returns:
NAV: +0.8% to 246.9p;
In keeping with our Manager, James Barstow's theme in his Review, I
have to report that the last year, the Chinese Year of the Dog, was
not one of our greatest. True - we produced a positive return for
Shareholders - a rise of 1.9p or 0.8% in the net asset value to
246.9p per ordinary share and, subject to your approval at the Annual
General Meeting, will have paid a dividend of 3.1p per share. But we
could, even should, have done rather better. Our Benchmark, the FTSE
All-share Index, rose 8.2% and our Association of Investment
Companies ("AIC") peer group, UK Growth, outperformed us. Producing
a positive return is our stated objective but we also aim to earn
rather better returns than the stock market and than our
competitors. Last year we did not achieve those better returns but,
as I will comment upon later, we have achieved both good absolute and
relative returns on a long-term basis (another part of our
objective).
The underlying cause of our disappointments continues to be the
investments we have in certain small companies each of whose
prospects depend on an event or events materialising which would in
turn result in a much higher valuation for the company. The
investments concerned are the holdings in BTG Emblaze Systems, Global
Coal Management, Medical Marketing and Orca Interactive. Each has
its own story and James covers them in his Review but so far, in
share price terms at least, the trees have not yet born fruit. It is
not surprising in the circumstances that such jam tomorrow
investments have proved unrewarding because the fruition has taken
much longer to come about - always assuming that it does - and
investors generally tend not to be that patient. Two others of these
types of investment in the portfolio, Gresham Computing and
Monterrico Metals did produce positive returns for the year. However
taken as a whole the seven investments cost the net asset value 18.0p
and were very largely responsible for our disappointing returns. As
you will read in James's Review, he remains optimistic that the seven
investments, taken as a whole, will produce good returns; James is
unusual as an investor in that he is very patient and we hope, indeed
believe, that in time it will be rewarded.
It is a pity that these investments are taking so long to bear fruit
because other parts of the portfolio did much, much better. James
is, as Shareholders know, an investor who constructs his portfolio
from his - and the Board's - view of the investment world,
identifying themes which should prosper (and those that should not)
and then selecting the appropriate stocks accordingly. Two of his
most successful themes over the last few years have been house
building (15.5% of total assets) and Ireland (22.6%); during the last
year they continued to contribute to the returns of the portfolio
handsomely. With holdings in McCarthy & Stone, Abbey, Barratt
Developments and Persimmon (+9.4p per share) and Gartmore Irish,
Anglo Irish and Irish life & Premium (+10.9p per share), the two
themes added 20.3p per share to the net asset value. Without the
drag of the seven concept stocks the net asset value would have
earned a higher return than the Benchmark.
The top five contributors and the top five detractors to the returns
of the portfolio were as follows:
+----------------------------------------------------------------+
| | Increase in value | Contribution to NAV |
| Top 5 Contributors | | |
|----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 1. McCarthy & Stone | £1,195,000 | 7.9p |
|----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 2. Gartmore Irish | £986,000 | 6.5p |
|----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 3. Anglo Irish Bank | £585,000 | 3.9p |
|----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 4. Gresham Computing | £330,000 | 2.2p |
|----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 5. AWG Ords | £301,000 | 2.0p |
|----------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| TOP 5 CONTRIBUTORS | £3,397,000 | 22.5p |
+----------------------------------------------------------------+
.
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+
| | Decrease in value | Detraction from NAV |
| Top 5 Detractors | | |
|-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 1. Global Coal | £1,107,000 | 7.3p |
| Management | | |
|-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 2. BTG | £1,035,000 | 6.9p |
|-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 3. Drax Group | £722,000 | 4.8p |
|-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 4. Orca Interactive | £496,000 | 3.3p |
|-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| 5. Emblaze Systems | £256,000 | 1.7p |
|-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------|
| TOP 5 DETRACTORS | £3,616,000 | 24.0p |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+
Long Term NAV 5 Years: + 74.6% to Benchmark: + 29.6%
Returns: 246.9p;
Since launch: + 152.5% to 246.9p; Benchmark: + 48.3%
Our stated objective for Shareholders is to achieve capital growth
over the long-term. As spelt out in the Business Review, your Board
regards five years as the appropriate time over which to judge the
long-term returns of the Company. It is important in this particular
year because Shareholders are going to be asked to consider the
future of the Company and vote on whether it should continue in
business. As elaborated upon later, the Board believes that it
should do so. In coming to that conclusion it has paid particular
attention to the five year returns that Shareholders have received
and to a lesser extent to the returns since the Company was launched.
As the numbers above and below illustrate and notwithstanding the
disappointing returns of the last two years, the longer-term returns
have been good. We believe that amongst the reasons for this good
long-term performance are the selection of the right investment
strategy and thence the right themes for stock selection and James's
considerable commitment to the Company (not only through his share
ownership and diligence but also through his heart and soul!).
The Board (the independent members thereof) has determined that not
only is it in Shareholders' interests that the Company should
continue in business as an investment trust but also that, having
taken into consideration various aspects of the job, its resources,
its experience and the returns earned, Mars Asset Management should
continue as its manager.
Shareholders' Total Returns: Over one year: + 10.1 p + 4.7%
or
Over five years: +117.4p + 97.8%
or
Since launch: +150.0p or + 150.0%
Although producing good net asset value returns is key to producing
good Shareholders' returns, it is the share price change and the
dividend payments which determine the return that Shareholders
actually earn from their investment in the Company. And of course
the return from the net asset value and the change in the discount
determine the return from the share price. The table below shows -
over the three time periods - those returns.
Although we monitor the discount closely and regularly, we cannot
control or manage it. The best way of attaining and keeping a low
discount or even a premium is to produce good net asset value
returns, which over the longer-term we have but over the shorter-term
we haven't. With good returns comes demand for the Company's
shares. It is also important that the Board generally and that James
particularly keeps in good contact with Shareholders and with the
market place; James is most diligent in that respect.
However there will be times when blocks of shares come onto the
market and when there are no immediate buyers; we have taken powers
in the past - and will be seeking to renew those powers at the AGM -
to buy in our own shares. We have been reluctant to do so to date
for fear of shrinking the market value of the Company and thereby
reducing the liquidity of its shares. However in early May of the
current year we did buy in 250,000 and are prepared to buy in more if
we judge that by so doing it will help minimise the discount.
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
|Analysis of| One year | Five years | Since Launch |
|shareholders' return | | | |
|------------------------+------------+----------------+----------------|
|Increase in NAV p sh |+1.9p | | +105.5p | |+149.1p | |
|------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------|
|Change in discount | +5.1p| | -3.0p| | -26.6p| |
|------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------|
|Increase in share price |+7.0p |+3.2%| +102.5p |+85.4%|+122.5p |+122.5%|
|------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------|
|Dividends |+3.1p | | +14.7p | | +27.5p| |
|------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------|
| | | | | | | |
|------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------|
|Total Shareholders'|+10.1p|+4.7%| +117.4p |+97.8%|+150.0p |+150.0%|
|Return* | | | | | | |
|------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------|
| | | | | | | |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
*NB dividends not reinvested
The Dividend:
The net income available for paying the dividend, as reported in the
Consolidated Income Statement, amounted to £225,000, rather less than
the cost of paying last years dividend. However the reason for it is
largely accounted for by timing difference in the payment of
dividends from our underlying investee companies. Having considered
the prospects for the income account for the coming year and having
regard to the funds available in the Revenue Reserve, the Board is
recommending a dividend of 3.10p per share, an increase of 5.1%. It
is the intention of the Board to try to keep the dividend rising at a
rate at least equal to that of inflation, although obviously it will
not be possible on all occasions. In respect of this last year, the
5.1% increase exceeds the rate of inflation as published by the
Government, albeit it is a number that does not seem to relate to
most people's experience of their own cost of living.
Annual General Meeting: at 12 pm on 28 June, 2007 at 145-157 St John
St., London, EC1
There are two special resolutions for Shareholders' consideration at
the forthcoming Annual General Meeting - special in the sense that
they do not normally occur - which I would like to draw to
Shareholders' attention.
Resolution Number 9: To Wind Up The
Company:
Recommendation: Vote Against
The procedure for the tenth anniversary continuation vote, which was
laid down at the time of the launch ten years ago, was that a
resolution would be put to Shareholders to wind up the Company.
However, if the Board of Directors believed that it would be in
Shareholders'' best interests that the Company should continue in
business, then it would recommend shareholders to vote against it.
Clearly it is an important matter for the Shareholders and so we have
given it full consideration. In doing so we have taken into account
three important issues:
1. Do we think that the investment environment over the next
five years is such that Shareholders are likely to make money? Yes,
we do. Both James's and my statements attest to a long-term
bullishness for shares, although we recognise there will be ups and
downs.
2. Do we think that Mars Asset Management is capable of
exploiting the opportunities in the stock market for the benefit of
Shareholders? Yes, we do. Notwithstanding the difficulties of the
past year, we believe that James has the right strategy, that he has
invested in good themes, which will prove rewarding during the next
five years and that - taken as a whole - the seven concept stocks
will make a good contribution to Shareholders' returns.
3. Will James be around and as committed for the next five
(and more) years? Yes, he assures us he will. As mentioned earlier
he is a committed individual; he owns 675,000 shares in the Company
and always buys more when appropriate opportunities occur; along with
his fishing, Aurora is one of the loves of his life. We already get
the benefit of his talent, experience and commitment and we will get
the benefit of continuity, an important aspect of good long-term
returns.
As a consequence we believe that over the next five years Aurora's
shares should prove to be an excellent investment for Shareholders
and we recommend that you vote AGAINST Resolution Number 9.
Resolution Number 10: To increase the aggregate Remuneration
Payable to the Directors:
Recommendation: Vote For
The Board has been giving active consideration to the appointment of
new directors but in order to pay fees to them, it needs to increase
the aggregate amount payable to the Directors collectively.
Furthermore the current fee level of £13,000 per annum per director
is rather less than the going rate, which has risen in recent times
due to the considerable increase in red tape, duties and liabilities
that directors take on. The Board believes that £150,000 in
aggregate will be enough to pay for a larger board and higher fee
rates. We therefore recommend that you vote FOR this resolution.
I do urge as many shareholders as possible to join us for the Annual
General Meeting. It will be held at 12 pm at Cavendish
Administration's offices at 145-157 St John Street, London
(Farringdon tube station). It is the occasion when shareholders can
meet all of the directors and ask questions or make comments or
suggestions which we would welcome and which we feel that all
shareholders should have the benefit of hearing. Please come and
join us.
Current Outlook and Prospects:
It seems that the current outlook and prospects - as I write this at
least - are much the same as they were a year ago. The global
economy has continued to grow, driven as it has been by the American
consumer and the Chinese producer. Almost all other major economies
have also contributed to the global growth, albeit to a lesser
extent. The prospects for the coming year are much the same,
although the American consumer may contribute rather less but the
European economies rather more. The effects of China's manufacturing
and India's service industries on global inflation have meant that it
has remained reasonably subdued (although some of the assumptions and
thence statistics on inflation are pretty questionable); commodity
prices generally and that of oil in particular are at similar levels
as those of a year ago so that they should not be a force for much
higher inflation in the next 12 months; and finally in most of the
mature economies demographics has a disinflationary, even
deflationary, influence on prices. Notwithstanding these
disinflatinary forces, central banks have become more concerned about
the prospects for inflation - particularly for the inflation of asset
prices - and as a consequence interest rates generally are rising.
The prospects for the UK's economy are likewise much the same as they
were a year ago. While the world's economy is driven by those of the
USA and China, the British economy is driven by the prosperity and
prospects for the City. Despite dire predictions from the
Eurofiles, particularly the Financial Times, that the City would be
sidelined because we did not sign up to the Euro, it looks as though
it is emerging as the financial centre of choice in the world. Aided
by mindless, over zealous and legalistic regulation in the United
States, by being fortuitously located in the best time zone, by
sensible regulation and taxation in the UK and finally and most
importantly by having a large pool of talented and experienced
people, the City has become the key driver of the UK economy.
Furthermore, and despite some of the destructive policies of our
Chancellor of the Exchequer (particularly in the area of the
country's pensions) and despite the prospects of the break up of the
United Kingdom (which must surely be of great economic benefit to
England and the City), the UK economy continues to motor on.
Our investment remit allows us to invest in UK quoted companies,
ranging from the largest, BP, to the smallest AIM company. Most of
the capitalisation of the British stock market is not dependent upon
the UK economy - so that the prospects of the global economy are just
as important to us as those of the UK. The strength of the UK
economy has a proportionately greater bearing on the fortunes of
smaller companies. Given that both look set fair, then so do the
prospects for the UK stock market. However, we should bear in mind
that this bull market is now pretty mature, being in its fifth year.
Typical of the final phase of a bull market is a lot of merger and
acquisition activity and indeed, as best my memory affords me, I do
not remember it on such a scale since the early 1970's. It seems to
be the case that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest
rates and that too is a reason for caution.
However, trying to predict markets is a mug's game and not one that
should dominate our - or any other investors' - investment strategy.
Rather it should be determined by a critical analysis and
understanding of what's going on in the investment world and choosing
the right areas (themes) and stocks to invest in. I think we have
learnt the lesson of investing a little too much in promising but
rather esoteric stocks and that by following our themes in a simpler,
more straightforward way, we should be able to make money for
shareholders and make more money than the market or our competitors.
Alex Hammond-Chambers
Chairman
25 May 2007
MANAGER'S REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
The Chinese called it the year of the dog. In the opinion of the
manager this was a fitting description for the last year's
performance of this Company's portfolio. Moreover just as the year
was ending the 'dog' bit viciously - a substantial part of the year's
gains evaporated in the last two and a half trading days of the year
as a consequence of the sharp correction which took place in the
Chinese stock-market.
It was indeed a most frustrating, perplexing and difficult year for
investing in growth stocks. Whereas from the outset the manager was
proved correct in being full of optimism about the prospects for both
the UK economy and particularly the stock-market, this optimism did
not translate successfully into the portfolio. The first half
witnessed, as previously reported, a poor relative performance, which
was only partly recovered during the latter part of the year.
In brief, the main features which militated against the manager's
strategy were the combination of bad sentiment towards lower
yielding, and especially smaller, stocks by investors who adopted an
unusually, ( in view of the strong rate of growth in the UK economy),
defensive rather than confident stance. Furthermore, the
unprecedented high level of corporate activity by private equity
funds towards mid-cap companies with dull prospects but steady cash
flow had not been foreseen by the manager - nor indeed by many other
commentators.
Although all the current investment themes introduced into the
portfolio remain apposite and relevant, their effect was overwhelmed
by the tidal wave of cash, which has swamped certain sectors of the
stock-market in the last year. Overall, it was an exceptional year,
during which investments in several failed management teams were more
richly rewarded than those in budding successful entrepreneurs - the
area which the manager considers to be the Company's main remit.
Today, as a consequence of this high degree of corporate activity, or
indeed the rumour/hope of it, in the manager's opinion, many
companies with current cash flows have never been so highly rated
during the past quarter of a century at a time when their prospects
are unexciting - the UK tobacco sector being the extreme example. By
contrast, those companies with the potential of future growth and
cash flows, have rarely been so relatively undervalued - providing
opportunities in abundance for the brave and patient stock selector.
Despite having suffered from a period of under-performance I firmly
believe that my patience will be well rewarded; successful investment
is a long term game.
The manager remains confident that circumstances must change for the
benefit of the portfolio. Companies exposed to the seriously
over-indebted UK consumer sector, a feature conspicuously absent from
the portfolio, will be adversely affected by any further rises in UK
interest rates. By contrast, the strong representation of companies
which are exposed to the rapid growth in developing nations will
thrive and prosper. It is a remarkable yet true fact, of which the US
centric investor is blissfully unaware, that the global economy, as
measured in purchasing power parity terms, continues to expand at
almost the fastest rate in history, thus in all probability providing
a favourable background for this style of investment.
It was a mixed blessing when McCarthy & Stone, a long standing
favourite and representative of two themes, namely the relative
under-supply of new housing and the ageing of the population, was
taken over during the year. Although the exit price provided a useful
uplift to the portfolio, it was sad that the management was unable to
obtain a much higher price than they did for a company with such
excellent future growth prospects and one which derived such an
exceptionally high return on capital employed.
Approximately one third of the proceeds from this disposal were later
redeployed in Barratt Developments, which has since successfully
acquired Wilson Bowden. This latter deal, which will soon propel
Barratts into the FTSE 100 index, to join Persimmon, not to mention
possibly also Taylor Woodrow/ Wimpey, is likely to help to ensure a
continuation of the re-rating of the rapidly consolidating
house-building sector.
A new addition to residential exposure was in Pactolus Hungarian
Property plc, a company specialising in refurbishing apartments in
the Mayfair/Belgravia districts of Budapest before letting them at
high rents to first class corporate tenants. This country is well
placed to benefit from the renaissance of Eastern Europe, from the
gradual harmonisation of wages up towards Western European levels.
Hungary also has the prospect, within a few years, of entry into the
Euro, which will then enable mortgage interest rates to halve and
thereby produce a consequent strong uplift in capital values.
A small disposal was made from the large holding in Persimmon.
Regrettably this holding did not perform in the same dazzling manner
as occurred in the previous year whilst it integrated its acquisition
last year of Westbury. Meanwhile, Abbey made steady progress,
benefiting from strong conditions in both the UK and Ireland.
The longstanding exposure to the rapidly growing Irish economy,
through the holdings in Anglo Irish Bank and Gartmore Irish Growth
Trust, produced solid gains once more. On account of the relative
size of these holdings, vis-a-vis the rest of the portfolio, further
part disposals were made, despite their excellent prospects; in turn
an addition was made doubling the size of the holding in Irish Life -
one of the few large companies which remain a pure play on the
domestic economy.
Last year, Irish GDP expanded by no less than 6%, on account of the
many dynamic features of that economy highlighted in previous
reports, yet the prospects for the next two years are no less rosy.
Although the housing market is set to slow down from its recent
exceptional level, any shortfall is likely to be made good by a
combination of the effect of further maturity of SSIAs (government
enhanced savings schemes), the boost to confidence resulting from the
rapid growth in the N. Irish economy, a tourist boom, the notable
strengthening of the European economy led by Germany, as well as by
the size of investments announced in the new National Plan. Under
that Plan the government, over the next six years, aims to invest a
massive ¤26 bn. p.a. to de-bottleneck areas of congestion in order to
improve productivity.
What a miraculous transformation has taken place in that economy
since 1987, when unemployment was some 14% and the debt to GDP ratio
was no less than 107%. Today the statistics are a mere 4%, despite
the rapid inward migration from Eastern Europe, and 25% respectively.
It is a great pity that the Olympic games were not awarded to Dublin
rather than London - they would have no problem in footing the
rapidly mounting bill.
China of course, as is well known, is the economy which is growing
fastest of all. The latest official statistic has confirmed a growth
rate in excess of 11% for the whole economy and no less than 18% for
industrial production; meanwhile India is forecast to grow at a more
sedate pace of 8% for the next few years. By contrast, the mighty
Euro area might possibly achieve 2% if given a following wind!
Exposure to such rapid economic growth has from the outset been a
favourite investment theme, but, as mentioned earlier, to the great
consternation of the manager, surprisingly was not a fruitful area
for this portfolio last year. It is a sad reflection on the
activities of stock-market professionals that really boring and staid
companies such as AWG (water) and SSE (electricity) with few virtues,
apart from their cash flow, should have produced much higher returns
than exciting growth companies such as Standard Chartered Bank (which
has arguably the best franchise in SE Asia and the oil rich countries
of the Middle East), Rolls Royce (a new holding on account of its
burgeoning order book, particularly from Asia) not to mention the
entire mining sector whose profits rocketed once more last year. Oh
well, as the saying goes, every dog must have its day.
As I wrote last year, I firmly believe that the mining sector is
still near the start of the fourth super-cycle in history, one which
may endure for two decades. During the last twelve months this sector
made no overall headway, but, in my opinion, had merely paused for
breath. Since the start of the new financial year the sector has
broken into new high ground and now looks poised to make excellent
headway.
The prices of many metals are currently hitting new highs as the
growth in demand from the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India,
China) far exceeds the growth in new supply, leaving perhaps as
little as two days consumption in stock, e.g. copper. Most of the
bears on the sector will be surprised to learn that, whereas the US
housing industry accounts for 3% of global copper demand, China will
consume no less than 30% this year. Nor will that percentage stay
constant as rapid investment programmes are taking place in the
domestic economy in terms of telecommunications and electrification,
not to mention air conditioning and computers amongst others. Indeed,
I read that over the next five years China intends to spend more on
its metros and railways than the whole of the rest of the world has
done over the last twenty years.
Metal prices in particular are likely to continue to rise yet further
because there are so few new mines ready to commence production.
Moreover every mining company is complaining about the shortages of
skilled personnel and equipment; it can currently take up to four
years to obtain a new drag line and more than a year to receive a new
set of tyres for a large dumper truck. Indeed one mining company was
so desperate to preserve tyre life at a time of such an acute
shortage that it has employed women drivers to achieve this.
The eight holdings in the mining sector provide the portfolio with
great diversity and a current treble weighting, so great is my
conviction that the mining sector will soon enjoy a re-rating from
its current derisory level in addition to rapidly rising earnings.
Whereas the investments in the large companies such as Rio Tinto,
Antofagasta, BHP Billiton and Xstrata maintained their value during
the year, two in smaller companies proved expensive. Monterrico
Metals plc, a huge copper deposit in Peru, was successfully
part-acquired by a Chinese consortium for a fraction of its true
value because the management failed to raise new money in time to
prolong the bidding process. Global Coal Management (formerly Asia
Energy) suffered from failure to receive permission to mine its
massive opencast coal deposit in Bangladesh from the previous
administration. Fortunately the army has assumed control of the
country since January and is taking key decisions to stimulate the
economy, as well as gaoling many of the former corrupt politicians.
(Little wonder that Brussels is currently taking few steps to create
an army!) Accordingly, the management of this company is now raising
its hopes that permission will soon be forthcoming.
As mentioned at the start of this report, several of the smaller
holdings performed badly. BTG for example gave back most of its large
gains achieved in the previous year because investors have fretted
that the company has decided to resubmit to the FDA's phase 2 trials
for Varisolve (revolutionary treatment for varicose veins) without a
major pharmaceutical company as partner. The company's diversified
portfolio of patents, particularly in respect of multiple sclerosis,
is however considerably more valuable than the current valuation
attributed to the whole group, even if Varisolve had to be written
off completely when the trial results are published later this year.
The management remain confident that this will not be the case.
The holding in Medical Marketing has diminished in value owing to
lack of news from the three separate research platforms which the
company is helping to finance. News will, however, be forthcoming in
mid May from the trials into using DNA vaccines for treating cancer
patients. Hopes are rising, as manifested in the share price, that a
significant deal will be contracted shortly thereafter.
Both Orca and Emblaze encountered major problems which materially
affected their share prices, although fortunately not in relation to
their technological know-how which remains at the cutting edge. The
former won many contracts from the smaller telephone companies (tier
3) to install their 'video on demand' systems but suffered the
tragedy of having their main business partner, Lucent, merge with
their main rival, Alcatel. Meanwhile Emblaze has encountered an
industry wide VAT problem which has caused severe outflows of cash
until the dispute is resolved.
Gresham Computing did rise in value during the year, yet progress in
signing up international banks as customers for its Real Time Nostro
accounting system would appear to have been slower than many
investors would wish. It is, however, making inexorable progress. The
company has recently announced that the system is now accounting for
9% of the daily foreign exchange market. I foresee that, once fifty
(still some way off) banks have signed, a 'tipping point' will have
been reached; thereafter the banks will sign in droves. Bankers are
like civil servants - keen to question everything, slow to come to a
decision, yet certainly lemming-like when they do.
I still consider, once this target is eventually achieved, that this
company has the most exciting and visible potential of any small
company I have encountered during my career. A potent incentive to
encourage a bank to adopt the system is the fact that on account of
faster settlement times the capital required under the new Basle 2
regulations will be greatly reduced. My great worry is that the
company may be subject to a hostile take-over attempt before it can
reap the rewards it so richly deserves.
I do naturally have other concerns in managing the portfolio which
are mainly from a political standpoint. Not only am I concerned about
the excess borrowing spree in which the Chancellor has engaged,
purportedly to improve the country's health and education services,
yet with little benefit to show for it to date, but also by the
degree of indebtedness of the consumer whose ability to spend in the
high street looks short lived. Furthermore, I am greatly concerned
about the state of the housing market, high prices and the knock-on
effect for manufacturing industry through the imposition of
unnecessarily excessive interest rates.
The Government continually makes noises about how it will make life
easier for house-builders to increase the supply of new housing, but
in reality it introduces more red tape/tax, as it does in all sectors
of industry and commerce, thereby increasing the difficulties
involved for companies. Fortunately this does greatly work to the
advantage of the larger participants by increasing their margins.
House-builders are still the best way to make money out of divorce,
immigration (whether legal or illegal), asylum seekers (definitely a
growth industry) as well as future climate change.
The Chinese Government appears to be slowly starving the North
Koreans into submission and forcing them to close down their nuclear
facilities. Let us hope they are successful. A much greater threat to
the level of stock-markets, however, would currently appear to arise
from Iran which boasts about its nuclear capability. I cannot see any
resolution to that problem so am keen to increase the portfolio's
exposure to energy assets outside the Straits of Hormuz, be they Drax
power station, coal, uranium, oil or natural gas.
On a more cheerful note the IMF has recently published its outlook;
it predicts a continuation of strong growth for both the UK and the
global economy. UK interest rates may not yet have reached their
peak until inflationary pressures abate - which even the Governor of
the Bank expects to occur later this year.
After several years of upward revaluation of property and bond
markets, equities, by comparison, appear to be relatively
undervalued. UK equities are now as cheap relative to ten-year bonds
as they have been at any time during the last thirty years. It is a
sobering thought for any "bear" that, even though the mid-cap area
may be highly valued, some 40% of the FTSE 100 is currently on a
prospective price/earnings ratio of under 11 times; moreover, the
smallest capitalisations also appear particularly cheap.
Few commentators would disagree that there is a high probability that
more share buy-backs, more corporate activity and further strong
dividend growth will occur to buoy the market; conditions for private
equity remain so favourable.
In conclusion, your manager remains optimistic about the portfolio,
being confident that good news flow for the smaller stocks, which has
been long delayed, will finally start to occur in what is a much more
auspicious year for Chinese investors. Roll on the year of the golden
pig.
M.J.BARSTOW
25 May 2007
CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2007
Year ended 28 February 2007 Year ended 28 February 2006
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Gains on investments - 795 795 - 3,714 3,714
at fair value through
profit or loss
Exchange differences - 144 144 - (155) (155)
on overdraft
Realised (58) - (58) 137 - 137
(losses)/gains of
trading subsidiary at
fair value through
profit or loss
Unrealised losses of - - - (831) - (831)
trading subsidiary at
fair value through
profit or loss
Investment income 921 - 921 835 - 835
Total income 863 939 1,802 141 3,559 3,700
Investment management (195) (195) (390) (178) (178) (356)
fees
Other expenses (207) - (207) (225) - (225)
Profit before finance 461 744 1,205 (262) 3,381 3,119
costs and tax
Finance costs (236) (236) (472) (207) (207) (414)
Profit before tax 225 508 733 (469) 3,174 2,705
Tax - - - - - -
Profit for the year 225 508 733 (469) 3,174 2,705
Earnings per share - 1.49p 3.36p 4.85p (3.10p) 21.01p 17.91p
basic and diluted
The total column of this statement represents the Group's Income
Statement, prepared under IFRS. The revenue and capital columns,
including the revenue and capital earnings per share data, are
supplementary information prepared under guidance published by the
AIC.
All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from
continuing operations. No operations were acquired or discontinued
during the period. All revenue is attributable to the equity holders
of the parent company. There are no minority interests.
The Board recommends a final dividend of 3.10p per share
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET
AT 28 FEBRUARY 2007
2007 2006
£'000 £'000
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Investments at fair value through profit or loss 44,864 44,003
CURRENT ASSETS
Investments held for trading - 1,111
Other receivables 40 152
Taxation recoverable 41 30
Cash and cash equivalents 337 98
418 1,391
TOTAL ASSETS 45,282 45,394
CURRENT LIABILITIES:
Purchases for future settlement 120 -
Other payables 125 118
Bank overdraft 7,740 8,266
7,985 8,384
TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES 37,297 37,010
EQUITY
Called up share capital 3,777 3,777
Share premium account 10,997 10,997
Realised capital reserve 14,886 12,228
Unrealised capital reserve 7,539 9,689
Revenue reserve 98 319
TOTAL EQUITY 37,297 37,010
Net assets per ordinary share 246.88p 244.98p
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2007
2007
Share Share Realised Unrealised Revenue Total
capital premium capital capital reserve
account reserve reserve
£,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000
Opening equity 3,777 10,997 12,228 9,689 319 37,010
Profit/(loss) for - - 2,658 (2,150) 225 733
the year
Dividends paid - - - - (446) (446)
Closing equity 3,777 10,997 14,886 7,539 98 37,297
2006
Share Share Realised Unrealised Revenue Total
capital premium capital capital reserve
account reserve reserve
£,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000
Opening equity 3,777 10,997 8,099 10,644 1,226 34,743
Profit/(loss) for - - 4,129 (955) (469) 2,705
the year
Dividends paid - - - - (438) (438)
Closing equity 3,777 10,997 12,228 9,689 319 37,010
CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW STATEMENT
FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2007
2007 2006
£'000 £'000
NET CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Cash inflow from investment income and interest 921 835
Cash inflow/(outflow) from held for trading 1,053 (1,805)
current asset investments
Cash outflow from management expenses (489) (1,096)
Payments to acquire non-current asset investments (10,642) (13,514)
Receipts on disposal of non-current asset 10,695 14,436
investments
Tax paid (11) (12)
NET CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES 1,527 (1,156)
CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Dividends paid (446) (438)
(Decrease)/increase in bank borrowings (526) 1,515
Interest paid (461) (413)
NET CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES (1,433) 664
INCREASE/(DECREASE) IN CASH 94 (492)
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year 98 745
Increase/(decrease) in cash 94 (492)
Currency translation difference 145 (155)
Cash and cash equivalents at end of year 337 98
NOTES
1. Status of this report
The above results for the year ended 28 February 2007 are unaudited.
This financial information does not constitute the Company and
Group's statutory accounts for the year ended 28 February 2007, which
will be finalised on the basis of the financial information in this
Preliminary Announcement.
Statutory accounts for the year ended 28 February 2007 are to be
delivered to the Registrar of Companies following the Annual General
Meeting.
The information for the year ended 28 February 2006 has been
extracted from the latest published audited financial statements.
The audited financial statements for the year ended 28 February 2006
have been filed with the Registrar of Companies. The report of the
auditors on those accounts contained no qualification or statement
under section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985.
2. Basis of accounting
The financial statements of the Company and the Group have been
prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting
Standards (IFRS), which comprise standards and interpretations
approved by the IASB and International Accounting Standards and
Standing Interpretations Committee interpretations approved by the
IASC that remain in effect, and to the extent that they have been
adopted by the European Union.
Under IFRS, the Statement of Recommended Practice (SORP) issued by
the Association of Investment Companies has no formal status, but the
Group has taken the guidance of the SORP into account to the extent
that is appropriate and compatible with IFRS.
The accounting policies are unchanged from those used in the last
annual financial statements except where otherwise stated.
3. Income
2007 2006
Income from investments: £'000 £'000
Franked dividends from listed investments 822 739
Unfranked income from overseas dividends 57 63
Income from listed fixed interest securities 29 25
908 827
Other income:
Interest receivable 13 8
13 8
921 835
4. Investment Management Fees and other Expenses
2007 2006
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Investment management fees
195 195 390 178 178 356
- monthly - - - - - -
- performance
195 195 390 178 178 356
Administration fees 65 - 65 59 - 59
Custodian's fees 12 - 12 13 - 13
Registrar's fees 8 - 8 6 - 6
Directors' fees 67 - 67 67 - 67
Auditors' fees: - audit of the 18 - 18 20 - 20
Company
and consolidated financial
statements
- non-statutory interim - - - 3 - 3
advice
- tax advice 6 - 6 6 - 6
Miscellaneous expenses 31 - 31 51 - 51
Total other expenses 207 - 207 225 - 225
5. Ordinary Dividends
2007 2006
£'000 £'000
Dividends reflected in the financial
statements:
Final dividend paid for the year 2006 at 2.95p (2005:
2.9p) 446 438
Dividends not reflected in the financial statements:
Proposed final dividend for the year 2007 at 3.10p
per share (2006: 2.95p) 461 446
6. Earnings per Share
Earnings per share are based on the profit of £733,015
(2006: £2,705,425) attributable to 15,107,250 (2006: 15,107,250)
ordinary shares of 25p.
Supplementary information is provided as follows: revenue earnings
per share are based on the revenue profit of £224,985 (2006: loss
£468,732); capital earnings per share are based on the net capital
gains of £508,030 (2006: £3,174,157), attributable to 15,107,250
(2005: 15,107,250) ordinary shares of 25p.
Company Secretary and Registered Office:
Cavendish Administration Limited
145-157 St John Street
London EC1V 4RU
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