FY10 Part 5 of 5

RNS Number : 2390C
Aviva PLC
03 March 2011
 



 

Part 5 of 5

Page 133

 

MCEV Supplement

 

In this section

Page


Condensed consolidated income statement

134

Condensed consolidated statement of comprehensive income

135

Condensed consolidated statement of changes in equity

135

Condensed consolidated statement of financial position

136

Reconciliation of shareholders' equity on IFRS and MCEV bases

137

Reconciliation of IFRS total equity to MCEV net worth

137

Group MCEV analysis of earnings

138

E1 - Basis of preparation

139

E2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings

143

E3 - Geographical analysis of fund management operating earnings

150

E4 - Analysis of other operations and regional costs

150

E5 - Exceptional items

150

E6 - Segmentation of condensed consolidated statement of financial position

151

E7 - Analysis of life and pension earnings

152

E8 - Life MCEV operating earnings

153

E9 - Present value of life new business premiums

154

E10 - Geographical analysis of value of new business

155

E11 - Post tax internal rate of return and payback period on life and pensions new business

156

E12 - Free surplus emergence

157

E13 - Maturity profile of business

157

E14 - Segmental analysis of life and related business embedded value

158

E15 - Risk allowance within present value of in-force (VIF)

159

E16 - Implied discount rates (IDR)

160

E17 - Summary of non-controlling interest in life and related businesses' MCEV results

161

E18 - Principal assumptions

161

E19 - Sensitivity analysis

167

 



 

 

 

 

Page 134

 

Condensed consolidated income statement - MCEV basis

For the year ended 31 December 2010

2010
€m



2010
£m

Restated

2009
£m



Operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders' profits



1,276


United Kingdom

1,085

787

2,466


Europe

2,096

2,344

340


North America

289

266

128


Asia Pacific

109

101

4,210


Long-term business

3,579

3,498

1,235


General insurance and health

1,050

960

147


Fund management1

125

51

(229)


Other operations and regional costs2

(195)

(173)

5,363


Regional Operating Profit

4,559

4,336

(168)


Corporate centre

(143)

(108)

(772)


Group debt costs and other interest

(656)

(636)

4,423


Operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders' profits

3,760

3,592



Adjusted for the following:



(120)


Economic variances on long-term business

(103)

365

(286)


Short-term fluctuation in return on investments on non-long-term business

(243)

95

(72)


Economic assumption changes on general insurance and health business

(61)

57

(28)


Impairment of goodwill

(24)

(62)

(220)


Amortisation and impairment of intangibles

(187)

(135)

187


Profit on the disposal of subsidiaries and associates

159

72

(367)


Integration and restructuring costs

(312)

(286)

(504)


Exceptional items

(428)

(248)

3,013


Profit before tax

2,561

3,450

(1,321)


Tax on operating profit

(1,123)

(952)

362


Tax on other activities

308

224

(959)



(815)

(728)

2,054


Profit for the year

1,746

2,722

All profit is from continuing operations.

1. Excludes the proportion of the results of Aviva Investors fund management businesses and other fund management operations within the group that arises from the provision of fund management services to our life businesses.
These results are included within the life MCEV operating earnings consistent with the MCEV methodology.

2. Excludes the proportion of the results of subsidiaries providing services to the Life business. These results are included within the life MCEV operating earnings consistent with the MCEV methodology.

Earnings per share - MCEV basis

2010


Earnings per share

2010

Restated

2009



Operating earnings per share on an MCEV basis after tax,

   attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc



90.9c


Basic (pence per share)

77.3p

83.0p

89.4c


Diluted (pence per share)

76.0p

82.2p



Earnings after tax on an MCEV basis, attributable to ordinary

   shareholders of Aviva plc



69.6c


Basic (pence per share)

59.2p

95.8p

67.6c


Diluted (pence per share)

58.2p

94.9p

 

Total MCEV operating profit before shareholder tax was £3,760 million (2009: £3,592 million), an increase of 5%. Within this total the long-term business operating profit before shareholder tax was £3,579 million (2009: £3,498 million), an increase of 2%.

      For 2010, the expected profit has been adjusted to reflect an even emergence of risk, calculated by using the Implied Discount Rates to "unwind" the opening balances. The basis for setting the underlying normalised investment returns has not been changed. This change has no impact on total profit.

 

 

 

Page 135

 

Condensed consolidated statement of comprehensive income - MCEV basis

For the year ended 31 December 2010

2010
€m



2010
£m

Restated

2009
£m

2,054


Profit for the year

1,746

2,722








Other comprehensive income



(28)


Fair value losses on AFS securities, owner-occupied properties and hedging instruments

(24)

(86)

(18)


Fair value gains transferred to profit

(15)

(30)

1,175


Actuarial losses on pension schemes

999

(1,140)

(21)


Actuarial gains on pension schemes transferred to unallocated divisible surplus and other movements

(18)

24

31


Impairment losses

26

89

(224)


Foreign exchange rate movements

(190)

(1,018)

72


Aggregate tax effect - shareholder tax

61

48

987


Other comprehensive income, net of tax

839

(2,113)






3,041


Total comprehensive income for the year

2,585

609



Attributable to:



3,193


   Equity shareholders of Aviva plc

2,714

777

(152)


   Non-controlling interests

(129)

(168)

3,041



2,585

609

Condensed consolidated statement of changes in equity - MCEV basis

For the year ended 31 December 2010

2010
€m



2010
£m

Restated

2009
£m

21,581


Balance at 1 January

18,561

17,771

3,006


Total comprehensive (expense)/income for the year

2,585

609

(880)


Dividends and appropriations

(757)

(853)

-


Issues of share capital

-

1

243


Shares issued in lieu of dividends

209

299

49


Capital contributions from minority shareholders

42

6

-


Net increase to total equity following Delta Lloyd IPO

-

930

(217)


Minority share of dividends declared in the year

(187)

(109)

3


Non-controlling interest in (disposed)/acquired subsidiaries

3

(2)

(44)


Changes in non-controlling interest in existing subsidiaries

(38)

(111)

(16)


Shares acquired by employee trusts

(14)

(53)

48


Reserves credit for equity compensation plans

41

56

20


Aggregate tax effect - shareholder tax

17

17

23,793


Total equity

20,462

18,561

(4,624)


Non-controlling interests

(3,977)

(4,279)

19,169


Balance at 31 December

16,485

14,282

 

 

 

 

Page 136

 

Condensed consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis

As at 31 December 2010

2010
€m



2010
£m

Restated

2009
£m



Assets



3,943


Goodwill

3,391

3,381

3,263


Acquired value of in-force business and intangible assets

2,806

2,860

3,182


Additional value of in-force long-term business1

2,737

3,475

2,319


Interests in, and loans to, joint ventures

1,994

1,701

748


Interests in, and loans to, associates

643

1,281

872


Property and equipment

750

753

15,191


Investment property

13,064

12,422

50,086


Loans

43,074

41,079

294,521


Financial investments

253,288

238,679

8,237


Reinsurance assets

7,084

7,572

335


Deferred tax assets

288

218

230


Current tax assets

198

359

9,645


Receivables

8,295

9,632

7,060


Deferred acquisition costs and other assets

6,072

5,621

4,292


Prepayments and accrued income

3,691

3,604

29,599


Cash and cash equivalents

25,455

25,176

16


Assets of operations classified as held for sale

14

53

433,539


Total assets

372,844

357, 866



Equity



820


Ordinary share capital

705

692

5,191


Capital reserves

4,465

4,478

2,405


Other reserves

2,069

2,042

(37)


Shares held by employee trusts

(32)

(68)

6,292


Retained earnings

5,411

3,425

3,113


Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis1

2,677

2,523

17,784


Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc

15,295

13,092

1,384


Preference share capital and direct capital instruments

1,190

1,190

4,624


Non-controlling interests1

3,977

4,279

23,792


Total equity

20,462

18,561



Liabilities



206,628


Gross insurance liabilities

177,700

171,092

136,962


Gross liabilities for investment contracts

117,787

110,015

3,986


Unallocated divisible surplus

3,428

3,866

10,502


Net asset value attributable to unitholders

9,032

9,894

3,422


Provisions

2,943

3,980

2,044


Deferred tax liabilities

1,758

1,038

365


Current tax liabilities

314

192

17,383


Borrowings

14,949

15,000

23,595


Payables and other financial liabilities

20,292

20,542

4,860


Other liabilities

4,179

3,653

-


Liabilities of operations classified as held for sale

-

33

409,747


Total liabilities

352,382

339,305

433,539


Total equity and liabilities

372,844

357,866

The summarised consolidated statement of financial position presented above is unaltered from the corresponding IFRS summarised consolidated statement of financial position with the exception of the following:

1. Adding the excess of the Life MCEV, including non controlling interests, over the corresponding Life IFRS net assets represented as the additional value of in-force long-term business; corresponding item within equity represented by the additional retained profit on an MCEV basis; and, corresponding adjustments to non-controlling interests.

 

 

 

Page 137

 

Reconciliation of shareholders' equity on IFRS and MCEV bases

For the year ended 31 December 2010

2010
£m

IFRS
£m

Adjustment
£m

MCEV
£m

Ordinary share capital

705

-

705

Capital reserves

4,465

-

4,465

Other reserves

2,245

(176)

2,069

Shares held by employee trusts

(32)

-

(32)

Retained earnings

5,411

-

5,411

Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis

-

2,677

2,677

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc

12,794

2,501

15,295

Preference share capital

200

-

200

Direct capital instruments

990

-

990

Non-controlling interests

3,741

236

3,977

Total equity

17,725

2,737

20,462

 

2009
£m

IFRS
£m

Adjustment
£m

Restated

MCEV
£m

Ordinary share capital

692

-

692

Capital reserves

4,478

-

4,478

Other reserves

1,829

213

2,042

Shares held by employee trusts

(68)

-

(68)

Retained earnings

3,425

-

3,425

Additional retained earnings on an MCEV basis

-

2,523

2,523

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc

10,356

2,736

13,092

Preference share capital

200

-

200

Direct capital instruments

990

-

990

Non-controlling interests

3,540

739

4,279

Total equity

15,086

3,475

18,561

Reconciliation of IFRS total equity to MCEV net worth

For the year ended 31 December 2010


2010
£m

Restated

2009
£m

Net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis

17,725

15,086

Adjusting for general business and other net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis

1,331

2,231

Life and related businesses net assets on a statutory IFRS net basis

19,056

17,317

Goodwill and other intangibles

(2,356)

(2,606)

Acquired value of in-force business

(1,447)

(1,493)

Adjustment for share of joint ventures and associates

(120)

(377)

Adjustment for assets to regulatory value net of tax

(890)

(19)

Adjustment for DAC and DIR net of tax

(2,839)

(2,653)

Adjustment for differences in technical provisions

1,303

1,414

Other accounting and tax differences

(467)

630

MCEV net worth

12,240

12,213

MCEV value of in-force1

7,024

6,325

MCEV2

19,264

18,538

1. Comprises PVFP of £10,180 million (31 December 2009: £9,417 million), FC of £(882) million (31 December 2009: £(820) million), CNHR of £(1,070) million (31 December 2009: £(788) million), and TVOG of £(1,204) million (31 December 2009: £(1,484) million).

2. Comprises embedded value of £16,131 million (31 December 2009: £15,058 million) and non-controlling interest in long-term business assets of £3,133 million (31 December 2009: £3,480million).

 

The reduced adjustment for share of joint ventures and associates follows the purchase of the remaining shares in RBS Life.

The adjustment for assets to regulatory value relates mainly to the US, where the larger negative adjustment in 2010 reflects the increased market value of bonds under IFRS.

      The DAC and DIR adjustment relates mainly to the UK and US, where DAC balances held for IFRS increased.

The difference in technical provisions relates mainly to Delta Lloyd and the US, reflecting differences between the IFRS and local solvency reserving bases.

 

 

 

 

Page 138

 

Group MCEV analysis of earnings

2010
£m

Covered

business1

£m

A

Non-covered
but related
to life

business2

£m
B

Total life

business3

£m

A+B

Non-covered relating to non-life
£m
C

Total non-covered
business
£m
B+C

Total
£m
A+B+C

Opening group MCEV

15,058

2,055

17,113

(2,831)

(776)

14,282

Opening adjustments

-

-

-

-

-

-

Adjusted opening group MCEV

15,058

2,055

17,113

(2,831)

(776)

14,282

Operating MCEV earnings

2,199

-

2,199

12

12

2,211

Non-operating MCEV earnings

(361)

(63)

(424)

(79)

(142)

(503)

Total MCEV earnings

1,838

(63)

1,775

(67)

(130)

1,708

Other movements in IFRS net equity

-

525

525

536

1,061

1,061

Capital and dividend flows

(1,020)

-

(1,020)

509

509

(511)

Foreign exchange variances

(170)

2

(168)

113

115

(55)

Acquired/divested businesses

425

(180)

245

(245)

(425)

-

Closing group MCEV

16,131

2,339

18,470

(1,985)

354

16,485

Preference share capital and direct capital instruments






(1,190)

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis





15,295

1. Covered business represents the business that the MCEV calculations cover, as detailed in the Basis of preparation note. The embedded value is presented net of non-controlling interests and tax.

2. Non-covered but related to life business represents the adjustments to the MCEV, including goodwill, to calculate the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. An analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis gross of non-controlling interests is provided in E6.

3. Net assets for the total life businesses on an MCEV basis presented net of non-controlling interests.

 

Restated

2009
£m

Covered

business1

£m
A

Non-covered
but related
to life

business2

£m
B

Total life

business3

£m
A+B

Non-covered relating to
non-life
£m
C

Total non-covered
business
£m
B+C

Total
£m
A+B+C

Opening group MCEV

14,522

2,639

17,161

(2,499)

140

14,662

Opening adjustments

-

-

-

-

-

-

Adjusted opening group MCEV

14,522

2,639

17,161

(2,499)

140

14,662

Operating MCEV earnings

2,247

-

2,247

15

15

2,262

Non-operating MCEV earnings

942

(99)

843

(496)

(595)

347

Total MCEV earnings

3,189

(99)

3,090

(481)

(580)

2,609

Other movements in IFRS net equity

-

(266)

(266)

(839)

(1,105)

(1,105)

Capital and dividend flows

(250)

-

(250)

(283)

(283)

(533)

Foreign exchange variances

(762)

(218)

(980)

224

6

(756)

Acquired/divested businesses

(1,641)

(1)

(1,642)

1,047

1,046

(595)

Closing group MCEV

15,058

2,055

17,113

(2,831)

(776)

14,282

Preference share capital and direct capital instruments






(1,190)

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc on an MCEV basis





13,092

 

 

Page 139

 

E1 - Basis of preparation

The condensed consolidated income statement and condensed consolidated statement of financial position on pages 134 to 136 present the group's results and financial position for the life and related businesses on the Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) basis and for its non-life businesses on the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) basis. The MCEV methodology adopted is in accordance with the MCEV Principles published by the CFO Forum in October 2009.

      The directors consider that the MCEV methodology gives useful insight into the drivers of financial performance of the group's life and related businesses. This basis values future cash flows from assets consistently with market prices, including more explicit allowance for the impact of uncertainty in future investment returns and other risks. Embedded value is also consistent with the way pricing is assessed and the business is managed.

      The results for 2010 and 2009 have been audited by our auditors, Ernst & Young. Their report in respect of 2010 can be found on page 352 in the Report and Accounts.

Covered business

The MCEV calculations cover the following lines of business: life insurance, long-term health and accident insurance, savings, pensions and annuity business written by our life insurance subsidiaries, including managed pension fund business and our share of the other life and related business written in our associated undertakings and joint ventures, as well as the equity release business written in the UK.

      Covered business includes the group's share of our joint ventures including our arrangement with The Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBSG) and our associated undertakings in India, China, Turkey, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea. In addition, the results of group companies providing significant administration, fund management and other services and of group holding companies have been included to the extent that they relate to covered business. Together these businesses are referred to as "Life and related businesses".

New business premiums

New business premiums include:

n premiums arising from the sale of new contracts during the period;

n non-contractual additional premiums; and

n expected renewals on new contracts and expected future contractual alterations to new contracts.

 

The group's definition of new business under MCEV includes contracts that meet the definition of "non-participating investment" contracts under IFRS.

      For products sold to individuals, premiums are considered to represent new business where a new contract has been signed, or where underwriting has been performed. Renewal premiums include contractual renewals, non-contractual variations that are reasonably predictable and recurrent single premiums that are pre-defined and reasonably predictable.

      For group products, new business includes new contracts and increases to aggregate premiums under existing contracts. Renewal premiums are based on the level of premium received during the reporting period and allow for premiums expected to be received beyond the expiry of any guaranteed premium rates.

Life and pensions operating earnings

For life and pensions operating earnings, Aviva uses normalised investment returns. The use of asset risk premia reflects management's long-term expectations of asset returns in excess of the swap yield from investing in different asset classes.

      The normalised investment return on equities and property has been calculated by reference to the 10 year swap rate in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk premium. The expected return on bonds has been calculated by reference to the swap rate consistent with the duration of the backing assets in the relevant currency plus an appropriate risk margin (equivalent to the gross redemption yield less an allowance for defaults).

      From 2010, Aviva has changed the approach to calculating expected returns within operating profit. The expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) is now calculated using the implied discount rates (IDR), which itself is based on the normalised investment returns.

      The revised methodology applies the IDR to the Value of In Force (VIF) and Required Capital (RC) components of the MCEV and adds to this the total expected return for Free Surplus (FS) to derive the total expected return, in a manner consistent with that previously used under European Embedded Value reporting. This total is presented as the expected existing business contribution (reference rate), expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) and expected return on shareholders' net worth (grossed up for tax for pre tax presentation), with only the excess contribution being impacted by the change.

      The change to expected returns has no impact on total return or on the closing balance sheet.

 

 

Page 140

 

E1 - Basis of preparation continued

MCEV methodology

Overview

Under the MCEV methodology, profit is recognised as it is earned over the life of products defined within covered business. The total profit recognised over the lifetime of a policy is the same as under the IFRS basis of reporting, but the timing of recognition is different.

Calculation of the embedded value

The shareholders' interest in the life and related businesses is represented by the embedded value. The embedded value is the total of the net worth of the life and related businesses and the value of in-force covered business. Calculations are performed separately for each business and are based on the cash flows of that business, after allowing for both external and intra-group reinsurance. Where one life business has an interest in another, the net worth of that business excludes the interest in the dependent company.

      The embedded value is calculated on an after-tax basis applying current legislation and practice together with future known changes. Where gross results are presented, these have been calculated by grossing up post-tax results at the full rate of corporation tax for each country based on opening period tax rates, apart from the US, where a nil tax rate was used for the 2009 post-tax results, and consequently for 'grossing up'.

Net worth

The net worth is the market value of the shareholders' funds and the shareholders' interest in the surplus held in the non-profit component of the long-term business funds, determined on a statutory solvency basis and adjusted to add back any non-admissible assets, and consists of the required capital and free surplus.

      Required capital is the market value of assets attributed to the covered business over and above that required to back liabilities for covered business, for which distribution to shareholders is restricted. Required capital is reported net of implicit items permitted on a local regulatory basis to cover minimum solvency margins which are assessed at a local entity level. The level of required capital for each business unit is set equal to the higher of:

n The level of capital at which the local regulator is empowered to take action;

n The capital requirement of the business unit under the group's economic capital requirements; and

n The target capital level of the business unit.

 

This methodology reflects the level of capital considered by the directors to be appropriate to manage the business, and includes any additional shareholder funds not available for distribution, such as the reattributed inherited estate in the UK. The same definition of required capital is used for both existing and new business.

      The free surplus is the market value of any assets allocated to, but not required to support, the in-force covered business at the valuation date. The level of required capital across the business units expressed as a percentage of the EU minimum solvency margin (or equivalent) can be found in E18.

Value of in-force covered business (VIF)

The value of in-force covered business consists of the following components:

n present value of future profits;

n time value of financial options and guarantees;

n frictional costs of required capital; and

n cost of residual non-hedgeable risks.

Present value of future profits (PVFP)

This is the present value of the distributable profits to shareholders arising from the in-force covered business projected on a best estimate basis.

      Distributable profits generally arise when they are released following actuarial valuations. These valuations are carried out in accordance with any local statutory requirements designed to ensure and demonstrate solvency in long-term business funds. Future distributable profits will depend on experience in a number of areas such as investment return, discontinuance rates, mortality, administration costs, as well as management and policyholder actions. Releases to shareholders arising in future years from the in-force covered business and associated required capital can be projected using assumptions of future experience.

      Future profits are projected using best estimate non-economic assumptions and market consistent economic assumptions. In principle, each cash flow is discounted at a rate that appropriately reflects the riskiness of that cash flow, so higher risk cash flows are discounted at higher rates. In practice, the PVFP is calculated using the "certainty equivalent" approach, under which the reference rate is used for both the investment return and the discount rate. This approach ensures that asset cash flows are valued consistently with the market prices of assets without options and guarantees. Further information on the risk-free rates is given in note E18.

      The PVFP includes the capitalised value of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the extent that they relate to covered business. This is referred to as the "look through" into service company expenses. In addition, expenses arising in holding companies that relate directly to acquiring or maintaining covered business have been allowed for. Where external companies provide services to the life and related businesses, their charges have been allowed for in the underlying projected cost base.

 

 

 

Page 141

 

E1 - Basis of preparation continued

US capital solutions

Credit has been taken within the 2010 US embedded value, and value of new business, for the anticipated reduction in capital requirements based on management's intention to enact transactions which allow recognition of additional assets that can be held against certain reserves, reducing shareholder capital requirements. Similar transactions, which are effectively based upon a parental guarantee that sufficient capital resources would be available if required, have been enacted for business written between 2006 and 2009. Previously credit has been taken for equivalent capital solution transactions only after they have been formally enacted.

Time value of financial options and guarantees (TVOG)

The PVFP calculation is based on a single (base) economic scenario; however, a single scenario cannot appropriately allow for the effect of certain product features. If an option or guarantee affects shareholder cash flows in the base scenario, the impact is included in the PVFP and is referred to as the intrinsic value of the option guarantee; however, future investment returns are uncertain and the actual impact on shareholder profits may be higher or lower. The value of in-force business needs to be adjusted for the impact of the range of potential future outcomes. Stochastic modelling techniques can be used to assess the impact of potential future outcomes, and the difference between the intrinsic value and the total stochastic value is referred to as the time value of the option or guarantee.

      Stochastic modelling typically involves projecting the future cash flows of the business under thousands of economic scenarios that are representative of the possible future outcomes for market variables such as interest rates and equity returns. Under a market consistent approach, the economic scenarios generated reflect the market's tendency towards risk aversion. Allowance is made, where appropriate, for the effect of management and/or policyholder actions in different economic conditions on future assumptions such as asset mix, bonus rates and surrender rates.

      Stochastic models are calibrated to market yield curves and volatility levels at the valuation date. Tests are performed to confirm that the scenarios used produce results that replicate the market price of traded instruments.

      Where evidence exists that persistency rates are linked to economic scenarios, dynamic lapse assumptions are set that vary depending on the individual scenarios. This cost is included in the TVOG. Dynamic lapses are modelled for parts of the UK, US and French businesses. Asymmetries in non-economic assumptions that are linked to economic scenarios, but that have insufficient evidence for credible dynamic assumptions, are allowed for within mean best estimate assumptions.

Frictional costs of required capital

The additional costs to a shareholder of holding the assets backing required capital within an insurance company rather than directly in the market are called frictional costs. They are explicitly deducted from the PVFP. The additional costs allowed for are the taxation costs and any additional investment expenses on the assets backing the required capital. The level of required capital has been set out above in the net worth section.

      Frictional costs are calculated by projecting forwards the future levels of required capital. Tax on investment return and investment expenses are payable on the assets backing required capital, up until the point that they are released to shareholders.

Cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR)

The cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR) covers risks not already allowed for in the time value of options and guarantees or the PVFP. The allowance includes the impact of both non-hedgeable financial and non-financial risks. The most significant risk not included in the PVFP or TVOG is operational risk.

      Asymmetric risks allowed for in the TVOG or PVFP are described earlier in the basis of preparation. No allowance has been made within the cost of non-hedgeable risk for symmetrical risks as these are diversifiable by investors.

Participating business

Future regular bonuses on participating business are projected in a manner consistent with current bonus rates and expected future market-consistent returns on assets deemed to back the policies.

      For with-profit funds in the UK and Ireland, for the purpose of recognising the value of the estate, it is assumed that terminal bonuses are increased to exhaust all of the assets in the fund over the future lifetime of the in-force with-profit policies. However, under stochastic modelling there may be some extreme economic scenarios when the total assets in the group's with-profit funds are not sufficient to pay all policyholder claims. The average additional shareholder cost arising from this shortfall has been included in the TVOG.

      For profit sharing business in continental Europe, where policy benefits and shareholder value depend on the timing of realising gains, the apportionment of unrealised gains between policyholders and shareholders reflect contractual requirements as well as existing practice. Under certain economic scenarios where additional shareholder injections are required to meet policyholder payments, the average additional cost has been included in the TVOG.

 

 

 

Page 142

 

E1 - Basis of preparation continued

The embedded value of the US spread-based products anticipates the application of management discretion allowed for contractually within the policies, subject to contractual guarantees. This includes the ability to change the crediting rates and indexed strategies available within the policy. Consideration is taken of the economic environment assumed in future projections and returns in excess of the reference rate are not assumed. Anticipated market and policyholder reaction to management action has been considered. The anticipated management action is consistent with current decision rules and has been approved and signed off by management and legal counsel.

Consolidation adjustments

The effect of transactions between group life companies such as loans and reinsurance arrangements have been included in the results split by territory in a consistent manner. No elimination is required on consolidation.

      As the MCEV methodology incorporates the impact of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the group's life companies, the equivalent profits and losses have been removed from the relevant segment (non-insurance or fund management) and are instead included within the results of life and related businesses. In addition, the underlying basis of calculation for these profits has changed from the IFRS basis to the MCEV basis.

      The capitalised value of the future profits and losses from such service companies are included in the embedded value and value of new business calculations for the relevant business, but the net assets (representing historical profits and other amounts) remain under non-insurance or fund management. In order to reconcile the profits arising in the financial period within each segment with the assets on the opening and closing statement of financial positions, a transfer of IFRS profits from life and related business to the appropriate segment is deemed to occur. An equivalent approach has been adopted for expenses within our holding companies. The assessments of goodwill, intangibles and pension schemes relating to life insurance business utilise the IFRS measurement basis.

Exchange rates

The group's principal overseas operations during the period were located within the Eurozone and the United States.

      The results and cash flows of these operations have been translated at the average rates for that period and the assets and liabilities have been translated at the period end rates. Please refer to note A2 on page 37 of the IFRS financial statements.

Restatement

During 2010, the Group's Dutch subsidiary, Delta Lloyd, reviewed its approach to the scope of business using adjusted swap rates (also known as a 'liquidity premium'). Delta Lloyd's approach has been aligned with the Quantitative Impact Study (QIS) 5 methodology set out as part of Solvency II developments. The swap rate adjustment is applied in full to immediate annuity type contracts (as previously). In addition, 75% of the liquidity premium is applied to participating contracts and 50% to all other life covered business. This change aligns local Delta Lloyd and group Aviva reporting for MCEV and Solvency II internal model calculations. This change increases the closing 2010 embedded value by £20 million net of non-controlling interests. Results for 2009 have been restated on a consistent basis leading to an increase in the opening 2009 Embedded Value of £310 million; an increase in 2009 New Business Value of £35 million; an increase in 2009 Expected Return of £34 million and an increase in closing 2009 Embedded Value of £57 million, all net of non-controlling interests.

 

 

 

Page 143

 

E2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings








2010





Europe






United Kingdom
£m

Aviva
Europe
£m

Delta
 Lloyd
£m

North America
£m

Asia
Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business


354

504

(92)

(194)

52

624

Earnings from existing business:








- expected returns at the reference rate


169

244

49

20

20

502

- expected returns in excess of the reference rate


425

357

181

401

25

1,389

- expected returns


594

601

230

421

45

1,891

- experience variances


(20)

147

(16)

(7)

(28)

76

- operating assumption changes


(18)

338

(320)

(146)

13

(133)

Expected return on shareholders' net worth


179

152

124

82

12

549

Other operating variances


(4)

271

157

133

15

572

Operating earnings before tax


1,085

2,013

83

289

109

3,579

 








Restated

2009





Europe






United Kingdom
£m

Aviva
 Europe
£m

Delta
Lloyd
£m

North America
£m

Asia
Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business


247

521

(48)

16

29

765

Earnings from existing business:








- expected returns at the reference rate


113

326

43

55

26

563

- expected returns in excess of the reference rate


402

428

324

249

16

1,419

- expected returns


515

754

367

304

42

1,982

- experience variances


(29)

43

(3)

(87)

(23)

(99)

- operating assumption changes


(67)

(8)

171

(38)

(14)

44

Expected return on shareholders' net worth


138

180

88

89

17

512

Other operating variances


(17)

214

65

(18)

50

294

Operating earnings before tax


787

1,704

640

266

101

3,498

United Kingdom

MCEV operating earnings were 38% higher at £1,085 million (2009: £787 million) mainly due to increases in the value of new business and expected returns.

 

Value of new business grew 43% to £354 million (2009: £247 million), due to our focus on value maximisation through active management of our new business mix, robust cost control and pricing discipline.

 

Total expected return increased to £773 million (2009: £653 million), reflecting the additional expected return following the reattribution of the inherited estate partly offset by the adoption of implied discount rates as the basis for determining the expected return.

 

Experience variances of £20 million adverse (2009: £29 million adverse) reflect favourable mortality experience offsetting adverse persistency experience in current economic conditions.

 

Assumption changes were £18 million adverse (2009: £67 million adverse) reflecting a net increase in expense allowances, following the closure of our offshore subsidiary to new business.

Europe

In Europe, operating profit decreased to £2,096 million (2009: £2,344 million). Growth in Aviva Europe operating return reflects assumption changes and more favourable operating experience partly offset by lower expected returns. The reduction in Delta Lloyd operating profit mainly reflects adverse assumption changes. 2009 benefited from favourable assumption changes.

 

 

 

Page 144

 

E2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Aviva Europe

MCEV operating earnings increased 18% to £2,013 million (2009: £1,704 million), as positive operating assumption changes, favourable experience variances and modelling improvements more than offset lower expected returns.

 

Value of new business was 3% lower at £504 million (2009: £521 million). After allowing for movements in currency, this is in line with prior year. This reflects increased contributions from profit-sharing products in France and Italy. These contributions have been offset by the impact of reduced sales in Ireland, Spain and Poland.

 

Total expected return was 19% lower at £753 million (2009: £934 million) reflecting lower assumed rates of return and the adoption of implied discount rates as the basis for determining the expected return.

 

Experience variances were favourable at £147 million (2009: £43 million). The 2010 result reflects positive experience on mortality, as well as the release of short-term lapse provisions and the benefit from policyholders switching to unit linked funds in France. This has been offset by the impact of adverse lapse experience in Spain and Ireland.

 

Assumption changes on existing business were favourable at £338 million (2009: £8 million adverse). This arises from the positive impact of a detailed review of our expense assumptions, as well as the positive impact of mortality changes in France. This is offset by further strengthening of lapse assumptions in Spain and Ireland.

 

Other operating variances were positive at £271 million (2009: £214 million). These largely arose in France and relate to modelling refinements of £164 million as well as £107 million from actions taken to reduce the level of policyholder guarantees on profit-sharing products in France.

 

Delta Lloyd

MCEV operating earnings decreased to £83 million (2009: £640 million) mainly due to adverse operating assumption changes compared to positive assumption changes in 2009.

 

Value of new business was negative at £(92) million (2009: £(48) million) reflecting the continuing impacts of adverse economic assumptions.

 

Total expected return was lower at £354 million (2009: £455 million) due to the adoption of implied discount rates as the basis for determining the expected return.

 

Operating experience and assumption changes on existing business amounted to £336 million adverse (2009: £168 million favourable) as the impact of adopting an industry-standard longevity table was partly offset by favourable expense assumption changes related to planned expense savings following restructuring activities.

 

Other operating variances of £157 million (2009: £65 million) related to various modelling changes, mainly in Delta Lloyd Belgium and Delta Lloyd Life.

 

North America
MCEV operating earnings increased to £289 million (2009: £266 million) as higher earnings from existing business were partly offset by lower value of new business. The improvement in in-force earnings was driven by management actions coupled with disciplined spread management, higher expected returns and modelling refinements.

 

Value of new business of negative £(194) million (2009: £16 million positive) reflected adverse economic movements, particularly in the second half of the year as risk free rates decreased. The impact of economic movements has more than offset the benefits of pricing and product management actions.  

 

Total expected return increased to £503 million (2009: £393 million) reflecting the adoption of implied discount rates as the basis for determining expected return and the grossing up for tax in 2010 as a result of the reassessment of the tax paying position.

 

Operating experience and assumption changes on existing business were £153 million adverse (2009: £125 million adverse). Included within this are positive benefits of disciplined spread management offset by adverse operating assumption changes relating to immediate annuitant mortality strengthening and increased expense loadings.  

 

 

 

 

Page 145

 

E2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Other operating variances were £133 million favourable (2009: £18 million adverse) reflecting management actions and modelling refinements.

Asia Pacific

MCEV operating earnings were 8% higher at £109 million (2009: £101 million, £45 million excluding the contribution from Australia) as higher value of new business was partly offset by lower other operating variances.

 

Value of new business was 79% higher at £52 million (2009: £29 million, £11 million excluding the contribution from Australia), reflecting improved scale efficiencies, product mix and volumes.

 

Total expected return was £57 million (2009: £59 million, £37 million excluding the contribution from Australia), benefiting from the adoption of implied discount rates as the basis for determining the expected return.

 

Operating experience variances, other operating variances and assumption changes on existing business were nil (2009: £13 million), as favourable mortality and assumption changes were offset by experience variances.

 

 

 

 

Page 146

 

E2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Gross of tax and
non-controlling interests
2010

UK
£m

France
£m

Ireland
£m

Italy
£m

Poland
£m

Spain

£m

Other Europe
£m

Aviva Europe
£m

Delta Lloyd
£m

Europe
£m

North America
£m

Asia
Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business

354

175

1

142

40

128

18

504

(92)

412

(194)

52

624

Earnings from existing    business














- expected existing business
   contribution (reference
   rate)

169

98

12

13

74

34

13

244

49

293

20

20

502

- expected existing business
   contribution (in excess of
   reference rate)

425

183

30

34

25

76

9

357

181

538

401

25

1,389

Experience variances














- maintenance expense1

12

(25)

6

(11)

5

(1)

5

(21)

(21)

(42)

(16)

(2)

(48)

- project and other related
   expenses1

(8)

(5)

(2)

-

-

(2)

(5)

(14)

(4)

(18)

(18)

(3)

(47)

- mortality/morbidity2

23

27

3

(4)

13

2

3

44

13

57

(7)

9

82

- lapses3

(29)

27

(10)

18

(1)

(11)

(11)

12

5

17

(3)

(27)

(42)

- other4

(18)

93

(4)

12

14

3

8

126

(9)

117

37

(5)

131


(20)

117

(7)

15

31

(9)

-

147

(16)

131

(7)

(28)

76

Operating assumption
   changes:














- maintenance expense5

83

31

(3)

(11)

140

132

-

289

220

509

(88)

8

512

- project and other
   related expenses5

(92)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

(6)

(6)

-

-

(98)

- mortality/morbidity6

2

57

7

1

7

(2)

-

70

(470)

(400)

(64)

17

(445)

- lapses7

(3)

(12)

(17)

39

13

(49)

(7)

(33)

(52)

(85)

6

(12)

(94)

- other

(8)

4

-

(2)

8

-

2

12

(12)

-

-

-

(8)


(18)

80

(13)

27

168

81

(5)

338

(320)

18

(146)

13

(133)

Expected return on    shareholders' net worth

179

47

20

50

9

18

8

152

124

276

82

12

549

Other operating variances8

(4)

271

(6)

(15)

30

(9)

-

271

157

428

133

15

572

Earnings before tax and
non-controlling interests

1,085

971

37

266

377

319

43

2,013

83

2,096

289

109

3,579

1. Adverse expense experience occurred across a number of businesses.

2. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumption set across a number of our businesses, most notably in France and the UK Annuity business.

3. Persistency experience remains volatile across most of our businesses, in part reflecting the wider economic circumstances. In France, persistency experience reflects a release of the short-term provision.

4. Other experience includes, in France, the benefit from policyholders switching to unit linked funds, and, in the USA favourable spread experience.

5. Favourable maintenance expense assumptions reflect the benefit of the shared service centre in Spain, together with the release of margins in Spain, related to bancassurance joint venture governance costs, and Poland. In the UK, the expense assumptions include a reallocation of provisions in the service company, better reflecting the expected future allocation of costs. In the USA, the adverse impact reflects a revised allocation of costs between ongoing and one-off. In Delta Lloyd, favourable expense assumptions relate to planned expense saving following restructuring activities. 

6. Delta Lloyd have updated mortality assumptions to reflect recently published tables, which include a significantly increased allowance for mortality improvements. In France and the USA, mortality assumptions have been updated reflecting experience.

7. Persistency assumptions have been updated in a number of businesses.

8. Other operating variances for France relate to modelling changes, particularly relating to the time value of options and guarantees, and the benefit of reducing minimum guarantee rates. In Delta Lloyd, modelling changes include impacts related to commercial mortgages partly offset by changes to group pensions business. In the US, other operating variances related to the benefit of an AXXX capital solution together with modelling refinements on our asset portfolio.

 

 

 

Page 147

 

E2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Restated

Gross of tax and
non-controlling interests
2009

UK
£m

France
£m

Ireland
£m

Italy
£m

Poland
£m

Spain
£m

Other Europe
£m

Aviva Europe

£m

Delta Lloyd
£m

Europe
£m

North America
£m

Asia
£m

Australia
£m

Asia
Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business

247

169

12

124

55

151

10

521

(48)

473

16

11

18

29

765

Earnings from existing    business
















- expected existing business
   contribution (reference
   rate)

113

161

22

15

67

39

22

326

43

369

55

11

15

26

563

- expected existing business
   contribution (in excess of
   reference rate)

402

282

18

5

4

119

-

428

324

752

249

15

1

16

1,419

Experience variances
















- maintenance expense1

37

-

6

(2)

14

(10)

5

13

(3)

10

-

6

(1)

5

52

- project and other related
   expenses1


(34)

 

(1)


(7)

-

-

(7)

(7)

(22)

(42)

(64)

(35)

-

-

-

(133)

- mortality/morbidity2

6

50

8

2

12

(6)

8

74

(22)

52

5

5

8

13

76

- lapses3

(30)

53

(23)

(46)

17

(52)

(17)

(68)

13

(55)

(17)

(38)

-

(38)

(140)

- other4

(8)

(80)

1

116

7

1

1

46

51

97

(40)

-

(3)

(3)

46


(29)

22

(15)

70

50

(74)

(10)

43

(3)

40

(87)

(27)

4

(23)

(99)

Operating assumption
   changes:
















- maintenance expense5

1

(22)

5

(31)

54

(94)

10

(78)

275

197

(9)

(10)

8

(2)

187

- project and other related
   expenses

-

-

-

-

-

(13)

-

(13)

-

(13)

-

-

-

-

(13)

- mortality/morbidity6

5

64

7

12

58

(9)

(1)

131

(4)

127

(20)

(1)

5

4

116

- lapses7

(51)

(22)

(9)

(37)

83

(69)

(7)

(61)

(40)

(101)

(105)

(9)

4

(5)

(262)

- other8

(22)

3

12

1

(1)

-

(2)

13

(60)

(47)

96

(6)

(5)

(11)

16


(67)

23

15

(55)

194

(185)

-

(8)

171

163

(38)

(26)

12

(14)

44

Expected return on
   shareholders' net worth

138

66

16

57

8

26

7

180

88

268

89

11

6

17

512

Other operating variances9

(17)

62

(4)

-

121

37

(2)

214

65

279

(18)

50

-

50

294

Earnings before tax and
non-controlling interests

787

785

64

216

499

113

27

1,704

640

2,344

266

45

56

101

3,498

1. Maintenance expense experience in the UK relates to profits from existing business administration. Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer a wider range of products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes. Project and other related expenses in Delta Lloyd relate to integration costs in Belgium.

2. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a number of our businesses.

3. Persistency experience has been volatile across most of our businesses, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In France, positive persistency experience including the release of a short-term provision, in line with positive underlying experience. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both Life and Pension products.

4. Other experience is favourable overall. Both France and Italy include one off adjustments reflecting final commission payments from prior years. The favourable impact in Italy reflects to one-off profit sharing on a reinsurance treaty. The favourable impact in Delta Lloyd relates to the revised investment and bonus strategy in Germany following the decision to close this operation to new business. The adverse impact in the USA relates to the cost of enhancing policyholder crediting rates.

5. Favourable expense assumption changes reflect the impact of cost reductions in the Delta Lloyd and Poland, together with the impact of revisions to expense allocations in Delta Lloyd. The adverse impact in Spain relates to the capitalisation of certain governance costs in respect of bancassurance joint ventures.

6. Favourable mortality assumption changes in France and Poland reflecting recent experience. The adverse impact in Delta Lloyd reflects the net impact of using updated mortality tables in the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium, following
the issuance of revised advice from the respective actuarial associations.

7. Persistency assumptions have been strengthened across most of our businesses, in light of experience. In Poland, persistency assumptions have been weakened following sustained favourable experience.

8. Other assumption changes in the US primarily relate to the timing of management action in setting policyholder credited rates. In Delta Lloyd, the change represents tax effects resulting from a reallocation of assets

9. Other operating variances in France, Poland and Asia relate to have arisen as a result of more accurate modelling. In Delta Lloyd, these relate to revisions to investment and bonus strategies and expenses in Delta Lloyd Germany following the decision to close this operation to new business. In Spain, these reflect the impact of re-pricing actions on risk products.

 

 

 

 

Page 148

 

E2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
2010

UK
£m

France
£m

Ireland
£m

Italy
£m

Poland
£m

Spain

£m

Other Europe
£m

Aviva Europe
£m

Delta Lloyd
£m

Europe
£m

North America
£m

Asia
Pacific
£m

Total
£m

Value of new business

254

100

1

42

29

43

15

230

(41)

189

(126)

41

358

Earnings from existing
business














- expected existing business
   contribution (reference
   rate)

122

61

8

4

53

13

11

150

19

169

13

14

318

- expected existing business
   contribution (in excess of
   reference rate)

306

115

19

11

18

27

7

197

68

265

261

20

852

Experience variances














- maintenance expense1

8

(16)

5

(6)

3

(3)

4

(13)

(9)

(22)

(10)

(1)

(25)

- project and other related
   expenses1

(6)

(3)

(1)

-

-

(2)

(4)

(10)

(1)

(11)

(12)

(3)

(32)

- mortality/morbidity2

17

15

2

(2)

10

-

2

27

3

30

(5)

7

49

- lapses3

(21)

19

(7)

6

-

(6)

(9)

3

-

3

(2)

(22)

(42)

- other4

(12)

62

(3)

3

10

2

6

80

(3)

77

24

(4)

85


(14)

77

(4)

1

23

(9)

(1)

87

(10)

77

(5)

(23)

35

Operating assumption
   changes:














- maintenance expense5

57

21

(2)

(8)

97

83

-

191

89

280

(57)

8

288

- project and other related
   expenses

(65)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

(3)

(3)

-

-

(68)

- mortality/morbidity6

1

38

5

1

4

-

-

48

(198)

(150)

(42)

13

(178)

- lapses7

(2)

(8)

(12)

10

10

(17)

(6)

(23)

(21)

(44)

4

(9)

(51)

- other

(6)

3

-

-

6

-

1

10

(5)

5

-

-

(1)


(15)

54

(9)

3

117

66

(5)

226

(138)

88

(95)

12

(10)

Expected return
   on shareholders'
   net worth

129

27

14

17

6

7

6

77

50

127

53

9

318

Other operating variances8

(4)

162

(4)

(2)

20

(4)

-

172

64

236

87

9

328

Earnings after tax and
non-controlling interests

778

596

25

76

266

143

33

1,139

12

1,151

188

82

2,199

1. Adverse expense experience occurred across a number of businesses.

2. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumption set across a number of our businesses, most notably in France and the UK Annuity business.

3. Persistency experience remains volatile across most of our businesses, in part reflecting the wider economic circumstances. In France, persistency experience reflects a release of the short-term provision.

4. Other experience includes, in France, the benefit from policyholders switching to unit linked funds, and, in the USA favourable spread experience.

5. Favourable maintenance expense assumptions reflect the benefit of the shared service centre in Spain, together with the release of margins in Spain, related to bancassurance joint venture governance costs, and Poland. In the UK, the expense assumptions include a reallocation of provisions in the service company, better reflecting the expected future allocation of costs. In the USA, the adverse impact reflects a revised allocation of costs between ongoing and one-off. In Delta Lloyd, favourable expense assumptions relate to planned expense saving following restructuring activities. 

6. Delta Lloyd have updated mortality assumptions to reflect recently published tables, which include a significantly increased allowance for mortality improvements. In France and the USA, mortality assumptions have been updated reflecting experience.

7. Persistency assumptions have been updated in a number of businesses.

8. Other operating variances for France relate to modelling changes, particularly relating to the time value of options and guarantees, and the benefit of reducing minimum guarantee rates. In Delta Lloyd, modelling changes include impacts related to commercial mortgages partly offset by changes to group pensions business. In the US, other operating variances related to the benefit of an AXXX capital solution together with modelling refinements on our asset portfolio.

 

 

 

 

Page 149

 

E2 - Geographical analysis of MCEV operating earnings continued

Restated

Net of tax and
non-controlling interests
2009


UK
£m


France
£m


Ireland
£m


Italy
£m


Poland
£m


Spain
£m

Other Europe
£m

Aviva Europe

£m

Delta Lloyd
£m


Europe
£m

North America
£m


Asia
£m


Australia
£m

Asia
Pacific
£m


Total
£m

Value of new business

177

94

8

38

39

51

8

238

(43)

195

16

9

13

22

410

Earnings from existing    business


 

 

 

 


 

 




 

 







- expected existing business
   contribution (reference
   rate)


81


100


15


5


47


15

 

17


199


29


228


55


6


11


17


381

- expected existing business
   contribution (in excess of
   reference rate)



289



170



12



2



3



44

 

 

-



231



205



436



249



12



-



12



986

Experience variances
















- maintenance expense1

27

-

4

(1)

10

(8)

4

9

4

13

-

5

-

5

45

- project and other related
   expenses1


(26)

 

-


(5)


-


-


(3)

 

(6)

 

(14)


(21)


(35)


(35)

 

-

 

-

 

-


(96)

- mortality/morbidity2

4

30

5

1

9

(3)

6

48

(17)

31

5

3

5

8

48

- lapses3

(22)

36

(16)

(15)

12

(20)

(14)

(17)

5

(12)

(17)

(31)

-

(31)

(82)

- other4

(4)

(49)

1

37

5

1

1

(4)

35

31

(40)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(16)


(21)

17

(11)

22

36

(33)

(9)

22

6

28

(87)

(24)

3

(21)

(101)

Operating assumption
   changes:






























- maintenance expense5

-

(14)

3

(10)

38

(69)

7

(45)

197

152

(9)

(9)

6

(3)

140

- project and other related
   expenses

 

-

 

-

 

-

 

-

 

-


(5)

 

-


(5)


-


(5)


-


-


-


-


(5)

- mortality/morbidity6

4

42

4

4

42

(3)

1

90

1

91

(20)

-

3

3

78

- lapses7

(36)

(13)

(6)

(12)

58

(24)

(5)

(2)

(25)

(27)

(105)

(6)

3

(3)

(171)

- other8

(16)

2

8

1

(1)

-

(3)

7

(48)

(41)

96

(5)

(3)

(8)

31


(48)

17

9

(17)

137

(101)

-

45

125

170

(38)

(20)

9

(11)

73


100


38


11

 

18


6


10

 

6


89


57


146


89


7


4


11


346

Other operating variances9

(11)

34

(3)

-

83

12

1

127

14

141

(18)

40

-

40

152

Earnings after tax and
non-controlling interests


567


470


41


68


351


(2)

 

23


951


393


1,344


266


30


40


70


2,247

1. Maintenance expense experience in the UK relates to profits from existing business administration. Project and other related expenses in the UK reflect project costs associated with strategic initiatives, including developments designed to offer a wider range of products to customers, and the simplification of systems and processes. Project and other related expenses in Delta Lloyd relate to integration costs in Belgium.

2. Mortality experience continues to be better than the assumptions set across a number of our businesses.

3. Persistency experience has been volatile across most of our businesses, in part reflecting wider economic volatility. In France, positive persistency experience including the release of a short-term provision, in line with positive underlying experience. In Poland, lapse experience continued to be better than the long-term assumptions for both Life and Pension products.

4. Other experience is favourable overall. The Both France and Italy include one off adjustments reflecting final commission payments from prior years. The favourable impact in Italy reflects to one-off profit sharing on a reinsurance treaty. The favourable impact in Delta Lloyd relates to the revised investment and bonus strategy in Germany following the decision to close this operation to new business. The adverse impact in the USA relates to the cost of enhancing policyholder crediting rates.

5. Favourable expense assumption changes reflect the impact of cost reductions in the Delta Lloyd and Poland, together with the impact of revisions to expense allocations in Delta Lloyd. The adverse impact in Spain relates the capitalisation of certain governance costs in respect of bancassurance joint ventures

6. Favourable mortality assumption changes in France and Poland reflecting recent experience. The adverse impact in Delta Lloyd reflects the net impact of using updated mortality tables in the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium, following the issuance of revised advice from the respective actuarial associations.

7. Persistency assumptions have been strengthened across most of our businesses, in light of experience. In Poland, persistency assumptions have been weakened following sustained favourable experience.

8. Other assumption changes in the US primarily relate to the timing of management action in setting policyholder credited rates. In Delta Lloyd, the change represents tax effects resulting from a reallocation of assets

9. Other operating variances in France, Poland and Asia have arisen as a result of more accurate modelling. In Delta Lloyd, these relate to revisions to investment and bonus strategies and expenses in Delta Lloyd Germany following the decision to close this operation to new business. In Spain, these reflect the impact of re-pricing actions on risk products.

 

 

 

Page 150

 

E3 - Geographical analysis of fund management operating earnings

The summarised consolidated income statement - MCEV basis, includes earnings from the group's fund management operations as analysed below. This excludes the proportion of the results of Aviva Investors fund management businesses and other fund management operations within the group that arise from the provision of fund management services to our Life businesses. These results are included within the Life MCEV operating earnings.

 


2010
£m

2009
£m

United Kingdom

28

42

Europe

10

6

North America

(8)

(7)

Asia Pacific

-

(1)

Aviva Investors

30

40

United Kingdom

3

(14)

Aviva Europe1

-

3

Delta Lloyd

94

21

Europe2

94

24

Asia Pacific

(2)

1

Total

125

51

1. Aviva Europe included the result from the fund management in Poland in 2009. This business was transferred across to Aviva Investors from 1 January 2010.

2. The Australian Life business was sold on 1 October 2009, included within the 2009 operating earnings is £7 million.

E4 - Analysis of other operations and regional costs

Where subsidiaries provide services to our life business, that proportion has been excluded. These results are included within the Life MCEV operating return.

 




2010




2009


Regional
costs
£m

Other operations
£m


Total
£m


Regional costs
£m

Other
operations
£m


Total
£m

United Kingdom

-

(21)

(21)


-

(28)

(28)

Aviva Europe

(55)

(43)

(98)


(36)

(41)

(77)

Delta Lloyd

-

(24)

(24)


-

(30)

(30)

Europe

(55)

(67)

(122)


(36)

(71)

(107)

North America

(26)

6

(20)


(19)

3

(16)

Asia Pacific

(32)

-

(32)


(20)

(2)

(22)

Total

(113)

(82)

(195)


(75)

(98)

(173)

E5 - Exceptional items and Integration and restructuring costs

Exceptional Items of £(428) million (2009: £(248) million) were mainly due to a change in the cost of capital charge for the Cost of Non-Hedgeable Risk, from 2.5% to 3.3% p.a. with total impact £(365) million, the impact of reducing state contributions to Pillar II Pension funds in Poland, following the announcement to change legislation on 1 April 2011 of £(280) million, and the recognition by Delta Lloyd of £(59) million costs in relation to unit-linked insurance compensation scheme and compensation costs in defined contribution pension schemes, partly offset by a £286 million benefit from the closure of the final salary section of the UK staff pension scheme to future accruals.

      Exceptional costs for full year 2009 totalled £(248) million. This included £175 million in respect of the reattribution of the inherited estate in the UK, £(261) million in respect of the change in legislation in Poland restricting charges against pension funds, £(102) million brand migration costs and £(60) million in respect of latent claims reserves in Canada.

      Integration and restructuring costs incurred in the year amounted to £312 million (2009: £286 million). This includes expenditure relating to the Quantum Leap project in Europe of £40 million, costs associated with preparing the businesses for Solvency II implementation of £114 million and other restructuring exercises across the Group of £123 million. Costs incurred in 2009 related to expenditure on cost savings programmes in the UK life and general insurance businesses and in Europe.

 

 

 

Page 151

 

E6 - Segmentation of condensed consolidated statement of financial position




2010




Restated

2009


Life and related businesses
£m

General business and other
£m

Group
£m


Life and related businesses
£m

General
business and other
£m

Group
£m

Total assets before acquired value of in-force
   long-term business

323,476

45,378

368,854


307,117

45,880

352,997

Acquired additional value of in-force long-term business

1,253

-

1,253


1,394

-

1,394

Total assets included in the IFRS statement of
   financial position

324,729

45,378

370,107


308,511

45,880

354,391

Liabilities of the long-term business

(305,673)

-

(305,673)


(291,194)

-

(291,194)

Liabilities of the general insurance and other businesses

-

(46,709)

(46,709)


-

(48,111)

(48,111)

Net assets on a statutory IFRS basis

19,056

(1,331)

17,725


17,317

(2,231)

15,086

Additional value of in-force long-term business1

2,737

-

2,737


3,475

-

3,475

Net assets on an MCEV basis2

21,793

(1,331)

20,462


20,792

(2,231)

18,561

Equity capital, capital reserves, shares held by employee trusts
   and other reserves



7,207




7,144

IFRS basis retained earnings



5,411




3,425

Additional MCEV basis retained earnings



2,677




2,523

Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders of Aviva plc
   on an MCEV basis



15,295




13,092

Preference share capital and direct capital instruments



1,190




1,190

Non-controlling interests



3,977




4,279

MCEV basis total equity



20,462




18,561

 

1. The analysis between the group's and non-controlling interests' share of the additional value of in-force long-term business is as follows:


2010
£m

Restated

2009
£m

Movement
in year
£m

Group's share included in shareholders' funds

2,677

2,523

154

Non-controlling interests' share

236

739

(503)

Movements in AFS securities

(176)

213

(389)

Additional value of in-force long-term business

2,737

3,475

(738)

 

2. Analysis of net assets on an MCEV basis is made up as follows:


2010
£m

Restated

2009
£m

Embedded value

16,131

15,058

Non-controlling interests

3,133

3,480


19,264

18,538

Goodwill and intangible assets allocated to long-term business3

2,356

2,606

Notional allocation of IAS19 pension fund surplus/(deficit) to long-term business4

173

(352)

Long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis

21,793

20,792

3. Goodwill and intangible assets includes amounts related to associated undertakings and joint ventures.

4. The value of the Aviva Staff Pension Scheme surplus has been notionally allocated between segments, based on current funding and the Life proportion has been included within the long-term business net assets on an MCEV basis. The pension fund surplus notionally allocated to long-term business is net of the agreed funding borne by the UK with-profit funds.

 

 

 

 

Page 152

 

E7 - Analysis of life and pension earnings

The following table provides an analysis of the movement in embedded value for covered business. The analysis is shown separately for free surplus, required capital and the value of in-force covered business, and includes amounts transferred between these categories. All figures are shown net of tax and non-controlling interests.

 

Net of tax and

non-controlling interests

2010

Free surplus
£m

Required

capital1

£m

VIF
£m

Total
MCEV
£m

Opening group MCEV

2,204

7,546

5,308

15,058

New business value

(1,250)

901

707

358

Expected existing business contribution (reference rate)

-

-

318

318

Expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate)

-

-

852

852

Transfers from VIF and required capital to the free surplus

1,811

(587)

(1,224)

-

Experience variances

107

76

(148)

35

Assumption changes

(147)

(21)

158

(10)

Expected return on shareholders' net worth

126

192

-

318

Other operating variance

47

7

274

328

Operating MCEV earnings

694

568

937

2,199

Economic variances

(175)

103

228

156

Other non-operating variances2

(59)

-

(458)

(517)

Total MCEV earnings

460

671

707

1,838

Capital and dividend flows3

(1,020)

-

-

(1,020)

Foreign exchange variance

(26)

(65)

(79)

(170)

Acquired/divested business

23

190

212

425

Closing MCEV

1,641

8,342

6,148

16,131

1. Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.

2. Other non operating variances are described under Exceptional items on page 154.

3. Included within capital and dividend flows is the transfer to Life and related businesses from other segments consisting of service company profits and losses during the reported period that have emerged from the value of in-force. Since the "look through" into service companies includes only future profits and losses, these amounts must be eliminated from the closing embedded value.

 

Acquisitions during the year consist of an increase in the Group's interest in RBS Life Investments Limited, and the purchase of the interests of minority shareholders in two subsidiaries in France and Italy.

 

Restated

Net of tax and

non-controlling interests

2009

Free
 surplus
£m

Required

capital1

£m

VIF
£m

Total
MCEV
£m

Opening MCEV

1,348

8,148

5,026

14,522

New business value

(1,571)

983

998

410

Expected existing business contribution (reference rate)

-

-

381

381

Expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate)

-

-

986

986

Transfers from VIF and required capital to the free surplus

1,869

(738)

(1,131)

-

Experience variances

(198)

135

(38)

(101)

Assumption changes

48

6

19

73

Expected return on shareholders' net worth

164

182

-

346

Other operating variances

10

(141)

283

152

Operating MCEV earnings

322

427

1,498

2,247

Economic variances

1,317

(324)

(315)

678

Other non-operating variances

(238)

909

(407)

264

Total MCEV earnings

1,401

1,012

776

3,189

Capital and dividend flows2

(250)

-

-

(250)

Foreign exchange variance

6

(556)

(183)

(733)

Acquired/divested business

(301)

(1,058)

(311)

(1,670)

Closing MCEV

2,204

7,546

5,308

15,058

1. Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.

2. Included within capital and dividend flows is the transfer to Life and related businesses from other segments consisting of service company profits and losses during the reported period that have emerged from the value of in-force. Since the "look through" into service companies includes only future profits and losses, these amounts must be eliminated from the closing embedded value.

 

 

 

 

Page 153

 

E8 - Life MCEV operating earnings

In this table the life and pensions MCEV earnings have been broken down into constituent parts. The life and pensions MCEV operating earnings comprise: the value of new business written during the year; the earnings from existing business including other operating variances; and, the expected investment return on the shareholders' net worth.

      These components are calculated using economic assumptions as at the start of the year (in-force business) or start of the quarter (new business) and operating (demographic and expenses) assumptions as at the end of the year.

 

Gross of tax and
non-controlling interests

 2010

£m

Restated

2009

£m

Value of new business

624

765

Earnings from existing business



- expected returns at the reference rate

502

563

- expected returns in excess of the reference rate

1,389

1,419

- expected returns

1,891

1,982

- experience variances

76

(99)

- operating assumption changes

(133)

44

Other operating variance

572

294

Expected return on shareholders' net worth

549

512

Life and Pensions operating earnings before tax

3,579

3,498

Economic Variances

(103)

365

Other non-operating variances

(811)

364

Life and Pensions earnings before tax

2,665

4,227

Tax on operating earnings

(1,057)

(903)

Tax on other activities

202

(44)

Life and Pensions earnings after tax

1,810

3,280

 

There were no separate development costs reported in these years.

      Other non operating variances are described under Exceptional items on page 150.

      The table above presents a summarised breakdown of the life and pensions MCEV earnings on a gross of non-controlling interests basis and gross of tax with tax shown separately. The Group favours the gross presentation for consistency with the IFRS results. The table below compares the key items on the different bases as the subsequent analysis is provided predominantly on a net of tax and non-controlling interests basis as preferred by the CFO Forum Principles.

Key indicators

 



2010



Restated

2009


Net of non-controlling interests and tax  £m

Gross of non-controlling interests and tax  £m

 

 

Net of non-controlling interests and tax
 
£m

Gross of non-controlling interests and tax
 
£m

Value of new business

358

624


410

765

Life and pensions operating return

2,199

3,579


2,247

3,498

Life and pensions earnings

1,838

2,665


3,189

4,227

 

 

 

 

Page 154

E9 - Present value of life new business premiums

The tables below set out the present value of new business premiums (PVNBP) written by the life and related businesses, the value of new business and the resulting margin, firstly gross and then net of tax and non-controlling interests. The PVNBP calculation is equal to total single premium sales received in the period plus the discounted value of regular premiums expected to be received over the term of the new contracts, and is expressed at the point of sale.

      The premium volumes and projection assumptions used to calculate the present value of regular premiums for each product are the same as those used to calculate the value of new business, so the components of the new business margin are on a consistent basis.

      The Weighted Average Capitalisation Factor (WACF) is the multiple of the annualised regular premium which gives the present value at point of sale of the regular premiums.

 

Gross of
non-controlling interests

2010

Regular premiums

£m

WACF

 

Present value of regular premiums

£m

Single premiums

£m

Present value of new business premiums

£m

United Kingdom

579

5.2

2,997

7,301

10,298

France

89

6.3

565

4,353

4,918

Ireland

65

4.0

263

675

938

Italy

50

5.4

270

4,186

4,456

Poland

51

9.2

468

135

603

Spain

109

5.9

648

1,436

2,084

Other Europe

89

4.6

412

126

538

Aviva Europe

453

5.8

2,626

10,911

13,537

Delta Lloyd

172

9.3

1,591

1,587

3,178

Europe

625

6.7

4,217

12,498

16,715

North America

97

10.2

993

3,735

4,728

Asia Pacific

240

4.7

1,132

485

1,617

Total life and pensions

1,541

6.1

9,339

24,019

33,358

 

Gross of
non-controlling interests

2009

Regular premiums

£m

WACF

 

Present value of regular premiums

£m

 

Single premiums

£m

Present value of new business premiums

£m

United Kingdom

531

5.3

2,803

6,111

8,914

France

92

6.6

608

4,283

4,891

Ireland

78

4.3

337

735

1,072

Italy

111

5.3

592

3,015

3,607

Poland

71

13.1

927

152

1,079

Spain

128

6.1

782

1,672

2,454

Other Europe

82

4.5

365

55

420

Aviva Europe

562

6.4

3,611

9,912

13,523

Delta Lloyd

207

9.3

1,935

1,730

3,665

Europe

769

7.2

5,546

11,642

17,188

North America

90

9.6

861

3,684

4,545

Asia

185

4.5

828

267

1,095

Australia

49

4.0

196

65

261

Asia Pacific

234

4.4

1,024

332

1,356

Total life and pensions

1,624

6.3

10,234

21,769

32,003

 

In Poland, the WACF has significantly fallen, reflecting the lower proportion of new pension business written following legislative changes making this business less attractive. This business had a high WACF, reflecting the long duration of the business combined with premiums increasing each year.

 

 

 

Page 155

 

E10 - Geographical analysis of value of new business

The value generated by new business written during the period is the present value of the projected stream of after tax distributable profit from that business, including expected profit between point of sale and the valuation date. The value of new business has been calculated using economic assumptions at the point of sale which has been implemented with the assumptions being taken as those appropriate to the start of each quarter. For contracts that are re-priced more frequently, weekly or monthly economic assumptions have been used. The operating assumptions are consistent with those used to determine the embedded value. The value of new business is shown after the effect of the frictional costs of holding required capital, and after the effect of the costs of residual non-hedgeable risks on the same basis as for the in-force covered business.

 


Present value of new
business premiums


Value of new business


New business margin

Life and pensions
(gross of tax and non-controlling interest)

2010
£m

2009
£m


2010
£m

Restated

2009
£m


2010
%

Restated

2009
%

United Kingdom

10,298

8,914


354

247


3.4%

2.8%

France

4,918

4,891


175

169


3.6%

3.5%

Ireland

938

1,072


1

12


0.1%

1.1%

Italy

4,456

3,607


142

124


3.2%

3.4%

Poland

603

1,079


40

55


6.6%

5.1%

Spain

2,084

2,454


128

151


6.1%

6.2%

Other Europe

538

420


18

10


3.3%

2.4%

Aviva Europe

13,537

13,523


504

521


3.7%

3.9%

Delta Lloyd

3,178

3,665


(92)

(48)


(2.9)%

(1.3)%

Europe

16,715

17,188


412

473


2.5%

2.8%

North America1

4,728

4,545


(194)

16


(4.1)%

0.4%

Asia Pacific

1,617

1,356


52

29


3.2%

2.1%

Total life and pensions

33,358

32,003


624

765


1.9%

2.4%

 


Present value of new
business premiums


Value of new business


New business margin

Life and pensions
(net of tax and non-controlling interest)

2010
£m

2009
£m


2010
£m

Restated

2009
£m


2010
%

Restated

2009
%

United Kingdom

10,298

8,914


254

177


2.5%

2.0%

France

4,340

4,111


100

94


2.3%

2.3%

Ireland

704

804


1

8


0.1%

1.0%

Italy

1,965

1,614


42

38


2.1%

2.4%

Poland

531

933


29

39


5.5%

4.2%

Spain

1,136

1,326


43

51


3.8%

3.8%

Other Europe

538

420


15

8


2.8%

1.9%

Aviva Europe

9,214

9,208


230

238


2.5%

2.6%

Delta Lloyd

1,721

3,235


(41)

(43)


(2.4)%

(1.3)%

Europe

10,935

12,443


189

195


1.7%

1.6%

North America

4,728

4,545


(126)

16


(2.7)%

0.4%

Asia Pacific

1,598

1,348


41

22


2.6%

1.6%

Total life and pensions

27,559

27,250


358

410


1.3%

1.5%

 

1 In North America the value of new business of £(194) million reflects adverse economic movements, particularly in the second half of 2010, as risk free rates decreased.

 

 

 

Page 156

 

E11 - Post tax internal rate of return and payback period on life and pensions new business

The new business written requires up front capital investment, due to high set-up costs and capital requirements. The internal rate of return (IRR) is a measure of the shareholder return expected on this capital investment. It is equivalent to the discount rate at which the present value of the post-tax cash flows expected to be earned over the life time of the business written, including allowance for the time value of options and guarantees, is equal to the total invested capital to support the writing of the business. The capital included in the calculation of the IRR is the initial capital required to pay acquisition costs and set up statutory reserves in excess of premiums received ("initial capital"), plus required capital at the same level as for the calculation of the value of new business.

      The payback period shows how quickly shareholders can expect the total capital to be repaid. The payback period has been calculated based on undiscounted cash flows and allows for the initial and required capital.

      The projected investment returns in both the IRR and payback period calculations assume that equities, properties and bonds earn a return in excess of risk-free consistent with the long-term rate of return assumed in operating earnings.

The IRR on life and pensions new business for the Group was 12.5% (2009: 10.0%)

 

Gross of
non-controlling interests

31 December 2010

Internal rate
of return
%

Initial
capital
£m

Required

capital
£m

Total
invested
capital
£m

 

Payback

period
years

United Kingdom

15%

98

198

296

7

France

9%

34

202

236

9

Ireland

5%

34

17

51

11

Italy

11%

32

183

215

6

Poland

25%

16

9

25

4

Spain

22%

25

80

105

4

Other Europe

14%

41

16

57

6

Aviva Europe

13%

182

507

689

7

Delta Lloyd

6%

106

112

218

16

Europe

11%

288

619

907

9

North America

14%

65

366

431

4

Asia Pacific

11%

62

34

96

13

Total

12.5%

513

1,217

1,730

8

 

Gross of
non-controlling interests

31 December 2009

Internal rate
of return
%

Initial
capital
£m

Required capital
£m

Total
invested
capital
£m

 

Payback

period
years

United Kingdom

14%

109

133

242

8

France

9%

53

169

222

9

Ireland

6%

56

23

79

10

Italy

10%

27

156

183

7

Poland

22%

20

9

29

5

Spain

26%

25

72

97

3

Other Europe

12%

43

7

50

8

Aviva Europe

13%

224

436

660

7

Delta Lloyd

6%

116

140

256

33

Europe

11%

340

576

916

15

North America

7%

162

376

538

14

Asia

6%

58

25

83

25

Australia

11%

2

34

36

8

Asia Pacific

8%

60

59

119

20

Total

10.0%

671

1,144

1,815

14

 

 

 

 

Page 157

 

E12 - Free surplus emergence






Existing business




New business


Total business

Net of tax and
non-controlling interests

2010

Transfer from VIF to net worth £m

Return on net worth

£m

Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth

£m

Release of required capital to free surplus

£m

Total existing business surplus generation

£m


Impact on net worth

£m

Reduction in free surplus from required capital

£m

Total new business surplus generation

£m


Total free surplus generation

£m

United Kingdom

345

129

208

(183)

499


(43)

(95)

(138)


361

   Aviva Europe

478

77

147

126

828


(150)

(342)

(492)


336

   Delta Lloyd

139

50

(225)

83

47


(58)

(55)

(113)


(66)

Europe

617

127

(78)

209

875


(208)

(397)

(605)


270

North America

210

53

(56)

292

499


(41)

(375)

(416)


83

Asia Pacific

52

9

(5)

15

71


(57)

(34)

(91)


(20)

Total

1,224

318

69

333

1,944


(349)

(901)

(1,250)


694

 






Existing business




New business


Total business

Net of tax and
non-controlling interests

2009

Transfer from VIF to net worth £m

Return on net worth

£m

Impact of experience variances and assumption changes on net worth

£m

Release of required capital to free surplus

£m

Total existing business surplus generation

£m


Impact on net worth

£m

Reduction in free surplus from required capital

£m

Total new business surplus generation

£m


Total free surplus generation

£m

United Kingdom

220

99

62

(70)

311


(53)

(130)

(183)


128

   Aviva Europe

495

89

27

112

723


(177)

(281)

(458)


265

   Delta Lloyd

175

57

(124)

55

163


(111)

(124)

(235)


(72)

Europe

670

146

(97)

167

886


(288)

(405)

(693)


193

North America

159

90

(100)

457

606


(192)

(390)

(582)


24

Asia Pacific

82

11

(5)

2

90


(55)

(58)

(113)


(23)

Total

1,131

346

(140)

556

1,893


(588)

(983)

(1,571)


322

E13 - Maturity profile of business

(a) Total in-force business

To show the profile of the VIF emergence, the value of VIF in the statements of financial position has been split into five year tranches depending on the date when the profit is expected to emerge.

2010
£m

0-5

6-10

11-15

16-20

20+

Total gross of non-controlling interest

Total net of non-controlling interest

United Kingdom

153

766

538

287

553

2,297

2,297

   Aviva Europe

1,649

980

575

342

375

3,921

3,288

   Delta Lloyd

517

109

56

(176)

(76)

430

196

Europe

2,166

1,089

631

166

299

4,351

3,484

North America

56

(47)

12

12

9

42

42

Asia Pacific

187

94

35

15

3

334

325

Total

2,562

1,902

1,216

480

864

7,024

6,148

 

 

Restated

2009

£m

0-5

6-10

11-15

16-20

20+

Total gross of non-controlling interest

Total net of
 non-controlling interest

United Kingdom

289

629

490

288

369

2,065

 2,065

   Aviva Europe

1,613

1,149

656

350

342

4,110

3,271

   Delta Lloyd

54

149

177

151

(234)

297

125

Europe

1,667

1,298

833

501

108

4,407

3,396

North America

(238)

(251)

28

13

54

(394)

(394)

Asia Pacific

102

72

29

18

26

247

241

Total

1,820

1,748

1,380

820

557

6,325

5,308

 

 

 

 

Page 158

 

E13 - Maturity profile of business continued

(b) New business

To show the profile of the VIF emergence, the value of new business has been split into five year tranches depending on the date when the profit is expected to emerge.

 

2010
£m

0-5

6-10

11-15

16-20

20+

Total gross of non-controlling interest

Total net
 of non-controlling interest

United Kingdom

78

42

22

13

143

298

298

   Aviva Europe

257

119

70

31

40

517

378

   Delta Lloyd

(6)

21

21

12

(10)

38

18

Europe

251

140

91

43

30

555

396

North America

(26)

(85)

10

22

(6)

(85)

(85)

Asia Pacific

59

22

11

5

3

100

98

Total

362

119

134

83

170

868

707

 

Restated

2009
£m

0-5

6-10

11-15

16-20

20+

Total gross
of non-controlling interest

Total net
of non-controlling interest

United Kingdom

107

30

34

19

40

230

230

   Aviva Europe

286

126

80

37

43

572

414

   Delta Lloyd

(38)

89

97

75

(138)

85

70

Europe

248

215

177

112

(95)

657

484

North America

20

6

64

52

66

208

208

Asia Pacific

46

14

8

4

5

77

76

Total

421

265

283

187

16

1,172

998

E14 - Segmental analysis of life and related business embedded value

Net of
non-controlling interests

2010

Free surplus

£m

Required

capital1

£m

VIF

£m

Total

MCEV

£m

United Kingdom

1,139

2,934

2,297

6,370

France2

(243)

1,737

1,446

2,940

Ireland

47

336

444

827

Italy

202

313

82

597

Poland

129

114

876

1,119

Spain

81

266

207

554

Other Europe

43

45

233

321

Aviva Europe

259

2,811

3,288

6,358

Delta Lloyd

356

944

196

1,496

Europe

615

3,755

3,484

7,854

North America2,3

(248)

1,437

42

1,231

Asia Pacific

135

216

325

676

Total

1,641

8,342

6,148

16,131

1. Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.

2. France and Aviva USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.

3. Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £765 million at 31 December 2010 has been included within non-covered business.

 

Restated

Net of
non-controlling interests

2009

Free surplus

£m

Required

capital1

£m

VIF

£m

Total

MCEV

£m

United Kingdom2

1,270

2,568

2,065

5,903

France3

(71)

1,592

1,252

2,773

Ireland

175

226

487

888

Italy

263

268

129

660

Poland

60

131

950

1,141

Spain

135

212

265

612

Other Europe

38

33

188

259

Aviva Europe

600

2,462

3,271

6,333

Delta Lloyd

368

1,095

125

1,588

Europe

968

3,557

3,396

7,921

North America3,4

(152)

1,240

(394)

694

Asia

118

181

241

540

Australia

-

-

-

-

Asia Pacific

118

181

241

540

Total

2,204

7,546

5,308

15,058

1  Required capital is shown net of implicit items permitted by local regulators to cover minimum solvency margins.

2  The large increase in required capital in the UK reflects the additional capital locked in following the reattribution of the inherited estate.

3  France and Aviva USA have a positive surplus on a statutory basis.

4  Aviva USA's holding company debt amounting to £810 million at 31 December 2009 has been included within non-covered business.

 

 

 

Page 159

 

E15 - Risk allowance within present value of in-force (VIF)

Within the VIF in the tables, there are additional allowances for risks not included within the basic present value of future
profits
calculation.

 

Net of
non-controlling interests

2010

PVFP

£m

Frictional costs
£m

Non-hedgeable risks

£m

Time value of financial options and guarantees

£m

VIF

£m

United Kingdom

2,938

(291)

(322)

(28)

2,297

France

2,051

(123)

(170)

(312)

1,446

Ireland

476

(9)

(23)

-

444

Italy

156

(19)

(11)

(44)

82

Poland

1,013

(14)

(118)

(5)

876

Spain

281

(18)

(41)

(15)

207

Other Europe

247

(3)

(9)

(2)

233

Aviva Europe

4,224

(186)

(372)

(378)

3,288

Delta Lloyd

580

(107)

(85)

(192)

196

Europe

4,804

(293)

(457)

(570)

3,484

North America

607

(133)

(69)

(363)

42

Asia Pacific

441

(26)

(58)

(32)

325

Total

8,790

(743)

(906)

(993)

6,148

 

The Time Value of Options and Guarantees has reduced by £248 million to £993 million, reflecting favourable impacts from model refinements in France and US and the impact of renegotiating the guarantees on AFER in France.

      The allowance for Non-hedgeable risks has increased by £(260) million, reflecting the change to the charge from 2.5% to 3.3%.

 

 

Restated

Net of
non-controlling interests

2009

PVFP

£m

Frictional costs
£m

Non-hedgeable risks

£m

Time value of financial options and guarantees

£m

VIF

£m

United Kingdom

2,572

(285)

(197)

(25)

2,065

France

2,048

(144)

(155)

(497)

1,252

Ireland

517

(9)

(21)

-

487

Italy

189

(22)

(11)

(27)

129

Poland

1,050

(17)

(74)

(9)

950

Spain

326

(16)

(28)

(17)

265

Other Europe

198

(3)

(5)

(2)

188

Aviva Europe

4,328

(211)

(294)

(552)

3,271

Delta Lloyd

544

(129)

(80)

(210)

125

Europe

4,872

(340)

(374)

(762)

3,396

North America

80

(9)

(45)

(420)

(394)

Asia

324

(19)

(30)

(34)

241

Australia

-

-

-

-

-

Asia Pacific

324

(19)

(30)

(34)

241

Total

7,848

(653)

(646)

(1,241)

5,308

 

 

 

 

Page 160

 

E16 - Implied discount rates (IDR)

In the valuation of a block of business, the implied discount rate is the rate of discount such that a traditional embedded value calculation for the covered business equates to the MCEV.

      The cash flows projected are the expected future cash flows including expected investment cash flows from equities, bonds and properties earning a risk premium in excess of risk free, statutory reserves and required capital. The risk premiums used are consistent with those used in the expected existing business contribution within operating earnings. As the risk premiums are positive, a discount rate higher than risk-free is required to give a value equal to the market-consistent embedded value.

      Average derived risk discount rates are shown below for the embedded value.

 


2010

%

Restated1

2009

%

United Kingdom

8.4%

10.4%

France

6.7%

7.2%

Ireland

4.4%

5.1%

Italy

7.3%

5.3%

Poland

7.3%

7.1%

Spain

9.6%

8.4%

Other Europe

8.0%

8.9%

Aviva Europe

6.9%

6.9%

Delta Lloyd

14.8%

10.5%

Europe

8.7%

8.1%

North America2

24.5%

35.6%

Asia Pacific3

5.9%

7.2%

Total

9.9%

10.1%

1. The IDRs have been restated following more detailed review resulting from the change in expected return methodology, which reflected a more appropriate allowance for the impact of the release of required capital and other refinements

2. The US full year 2009 IDR has been revised to reflect the expected future tax paying position of the business. This reduces the IDR from 41.2% to 35.6%. The revised IDR gives the correct expected return allowing for the impact of tax on future cashflows within the IDR calculation and the impact of the tax assumption change on the closing full-year 2009 balance sheet.

3. Asia Pacific excludes Australian life and pensions business sold in October 2009.

 

 

 

 

Page 161

 

E17 - Summary of non-controlling interest in life and related businesses' MCEV results

2010

France

£m

Ireland

£m

Italy

£m

Poland

£m

Spain

£m

Aviva Europe

£m

Delta

Lloyd

£m

Europe

£m

Asia

Pacific

£m

Total

£m

Share-holders' interest

£m

Group

£m

Value of new business after tax

15

(1)

54

4

47

119

(26)

93

-

93

358

451

Life MCEV operating earnings after tax

41

6

104

40

81

272

49

321

3

324

2,199

2,523

Life MCEV (loss)/earnings after tax

47

(11)

(26)

2

(29)

(17)

(17)

(34)

6

(28)

1,838

1,810

Closing covered businesses'
   embedded value

250

268

630

153

489

1,790

1,324

3,114

19

3,133

16,131

19,264

 

Restated

2009

France

£m

Ireland

£m

Italy

£m

Poland

£m

Spain

£m

Aviva Europe

£m

Delta

Lloyd

£m

Europe

£m

Asia

Pacific

£m

Total

£m

Share-holders' interest

£m

Group

£m

Value of new business after tax

16

2

47

5

56

126

9

135

-

135

410

545

Life MCEV operating earnings after tax

45

14

79

53

81

272

76

348

1

349

2,247

2,596

Life MCEV (loss)/earnings after tax

51

1

64

17

57

190

(98)

92

-

92

3,189

3,281

Closing covered businesses'
   embedded value

320

290

762

162

586

2,120

1,346

3,466

14

3,480

15,058

18,538

 

There are no non-controlling interests in the United Kingdom or North America.

E18 - Principal assumptions

(a) Economic assumptions - Deterministic calculations

Economic assumptions are derived actively, based on market yields on risk-free fixed interest assets at the end of each reporting period.

      In setting the risk-free rate we have, wherever possible, used the mid-price swap yield curve for an AA-rated bank. The curve is extrapolated if necessary to get rates suitable to the liabilities. For markets in which there is no reliable swap yield curve the relevant government bond yields are used. For certain business, swap rates are adjusted for a 'liquidity premium' in deriving the risk free rates, and these adjustments are shown below the reference rate table.

      Required capital is shown as a multiple of the EU statutory minimum solvency margin or equivalent.

      The principal economic assumptions used are as follows:

Reference rate (spot, swap rates) and expense inflation


United Kingdom


2010

2009

2008

Reference rate




   1 year

1.0%

1.2%

2.8%

   5 years

2.7%

3.5%

3.2%

   10 years

3.7%

4.3%

3.5%

   15 years

4.1%

4.6%

3.8%

   20 years

4.2%

4.6%

3.8%

Expense inflation

3.3%

3.3%

2.4%

 


Delta Lloyd


2010

2009

2008

Reference rate




   1 year

1.3%

1.3%

2.5%

   5 years

2.6%

2.9%

3.3%

   10 years

3.4%

3.7%

3.8%

   15 years

3.8%

4.1%

4.0%

   20 years

3.8%

4.2%

3.9%

Expense inflation

2.0%

2.4%

2.5%

 


Eurozone

(excluding Delta Lloyd)


2010

2009

2008

Reference rate




   1 year

1.3%

1.3%

2.5%

   5 years

2.5%

2.8%

3.3%

   10 years

3.4%

3.7%

3.8%

   15 years

3.8%

4.1%

3.9%

   20 years

3.8%

4.2%

3.9%

Expense inflation

2.1%

2.5%

2.1%

 

 

 

Page 162

 

E18 - Principal assumptions continued


Poland


2010

2009

2008

Reference rate




   1 year

4.4%

4.5%

4.4%

   5 years

5.5%

5.8%

4.3%

   10 years

5.7%

5.8%

4.2%

   15 years

5.4%

5.7%

4.1%

   20 years

5.1%

5.5%

4.0%

Expense inflation

3.0%

3.0%

2.9%

 


United States


2010

2009

2008

Reference rate




   1 year

0.4%

0.7%

1.3%

   5 years

2.2%

3.1%

2.2%

   10 years

3.5%

4.2%

2.6%

   15 years

4.0%

4.6%

2.9%

   20 years

4.2%

4.8%

2.9%

Expense inflation

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

 

For service companies, expense inflation relates to the underlying expenses rather than the fees charged to the life company.

      The following adjustments are made to the swap rate for immediate annuity type contracts and for all contracts for Aviva USA and for Delta Lloyd. The risk-free rate is taken as the swap yield curve for the currency of the liability, adjusted by:

 


New business


Embedded value


4Q 2010

3Q 2010

Q2 2010

Q1 2010

Restated

4Q 2009

Restated

3Q 2009

Restated

1H 2009


2010

Restated

2009

UK1

1.09%/ 0.72%

0.87%/ 0.69%

0.75%/ 0.70%

0.80%/ 0.75%

0.90%/ 0.45%

1.10%/ 0.95%

1.50%


1.09%

1.00%

France

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a


0.36%

0.30%

Spain

0.15%

0.12%

0.20%

0.15%

0.30%

0.75%

1.00%


0.36%

0.30%

Delta Lloyd

0.38%

0.39%

0.34%

0.43%

0.61%

1.03%

1.83%


0.36%

0.43%

US immediate annuities

0.76%

0.85%

0.65%

0.65%

1.05%

1.50%

3.00%


0.66%

0.65%

US deferred annuities and all other contracts

0.64%

0.70%

0.55%

0.55%

0.90%

1.25%

2.50%


0.56%

0.55%

1.   The rate provided is for immediate annuities/bulk purchase annuities

 

For Delta Lloyd, the adjustment shown is applied to immediate annuity type contracts. For participating contracts, 75% of this value is used and for all other contracts, 50% of this value is used. This methodology is consistent with QIS 5 Solvency II requirements.

      For 2010, the approach to estimating the market level of liquidity premium in corporate bond assets has been simplified to use the formula structure proposed by CFO/CRO Forum working party.

 

The formula is:

      UK/Europe:      50% of (iBoxx Corporate bond spread - 40bp)

      USA:                 60% of (iBoxx Corporate bond spread - 40bp)

 

Adjustments are made where liabilities are not fully backed by assets earning a liquidity premium and for contracts that are exposed to some lapse risk.

      The revised approach increases the EV by £0.3 billion due to the release of prudent margins in the previous direct Credit Default Swap-based approach. There has been no change to the types of contracts to which a liquidity premium is applied, apart from in Delta Lloyd, which has been restated for the move to the QIS 5 approach.

Risk premium - used for operating profit, Implied Discount Rates (IDR), Internal Rates of Return (IRR) and payback period

For life and pensions operating earnings, Aviva uses normalised investment returns. The normalised investment returns are expressed as a swap rate based on the typical duration of the assets held plus an asset risk premium. More detail is given in note E1 - Basis of Preparation.

      The use of asset risk premia only impacts operating earnings as expected returns reflect management's long-term expectations of asset returns in excess of the reference rate from investing in different asset classes. This assumption does not impact the embedded value or value of new business as asset risk premia are not recognised until earned. The asset risk premia set out in the table below are added to the ten year swap rate to calculate expected returns.

 

 

 

Page 163

 

E18 - Principal assumptions continued


All territories


2010

2009

2008

Equity risk premium

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

Property risk premium

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

 

Future returns on corporate fixed interest investments are calculated from prospective yields less an adjustment for credit risk.

Required capital and tax




Tax rates7


Required capital

(% EU minimum or equivalent)


2010

2009

2008


2010

2009

United Kingdom1

27.0%

28.0%

28.0%


100%/110%/200%

100%/110%/200%

France

34.4%

34.4%

34.4%


107.5%

110%

Ireland2

12.5%

12.5%

12.5%


175%/250%

150%

Italy3

32.4%

32.4%

32.4%


111%/165%

115%/184%

Poland

19.0%

19.0%

19.0%


125.5%

150%

Spain4

30.0%

30.0%

30.0%


130% - 134%/175%

110%/125%

Delta Lloyd5

25.0%

25.5%

25.5%


120%

139%

United States6

35.0%

0.0%

0.0%


325%

325%

1. The required capital in the United Kingdom under MCEV is 100% for unit-linked and other non-participating business and 110% for annuity business with 200% for BPA business. In addition, the reattribution of the inherited Estate has led to additional capital being locked in to support the with-profit business, and this has been included within required capital.

2. Required capital in Ireland under MCEV is 175% for bancassurance and 250% for retail business.

3. Required capital in Italy under MCEV is 165% of the EU minimum for Eurovita and 111% for bancassurance and 130% for retail business.

4. Required capital in Spain is 175% of the EU minimum for Aviva Vida y Pensiones and 130% - 134% for bancassurance companies.

5. This capital level is the aggregate capital required for Delta Lloyd.

6. Following a more detailed review of the implied tax position of Aviva US, 2010 results have been calculated including the impact of full corporation tax applying to the cash flows and consequently the 2010 results are "grossed up" at the corporation tax rate in line with other businesses.

7. Current tax legislation and rates have been assumed to continue unaltered except where changes in future tax rates have been announced.

 

A gradual reduction in the UK corporation tax rate from 28% to 24% over 4 years was announced in the Emergency Budget of 22 June 2010. The Finance (No. 2) Act 2010 enacted the first of the 1% rate reductions with effect from April 2011, with subsequent reductions to be dealt with by future legislation. The benefit to the Group's MCEV net assets arising from the 3% reduction of the rate from 27% to 24% is estimated as £160 million in total.

Other economic assumptions

Required capital relating to with-profit business is generally assumed to be covered by the surplus within the with-profit funds and no effect has been attributed to shareholders. Where the fund is insufficient, and additional shareholder support is required, this is included within required capital, including the RIEESA in the UK. Bonus rates on participating business have been set at levels consistent with the economic assumptions. The distribution of profit between policyholders and shareholders within the with-profit funds assumes that the shareholder interest in conventional with-profit business in the United Kingdom and Ireland continues at the current rate of one-ninth of the cost of bonus.

(b) Economic Assumptions - Stochastic calculations

The calculation of time value of options and guarantees allows for expected management and policyholder actions in response to varying future investment conditions. The management actions modelled include changes to asset mix, bonus rates and rates of interest and other guarantees granted to policyholders. Modelled policyholder actions are described under "Other assumptions".

 

 

 

Page 164

 

E18 - Principal assumptions continued

Model - United Kingdom, Europe (excluding Delta Lloyd) and Asia Pacific

Swap rates are generated by a model, the LIBOR Market Model (LMM), that projects a full swap curve at monthly intervals. Forward rates are assumed to have a log-normal distribution which guarantees non-negative interest rates. The model is calibrated to at-the-money swaptions of a variety of terms and tenors. Swaption volatilities are taken from SuperDerivatives. Tests have been performed to ensure that sufficient scenarios have been used that the result converges to the stochastic value of the business being valued.

      The total annual return on equities is calculated as the return on one-year swaps plus an excess return. This excess return is generally modelled using a log-normal model where volatility varies by time horizon. This allows the model to capture the term structure of implied volatilities. The model is calibrated to at-the-money options of a variety of terms. For the UK, a two-dimensional model is used to capture the term structure of implied volatilities and the projected in the money position. Option volatilities are taken from Markit.

      The model also generates property total returns and real yield curves, although these are not significant asset classes for Aviva outside the UK. In the absence of liquid market data, the volatilities of these asset classes are based on historic data.

      Assumptions for correlations between asset classes have been set based on historic data.

Model - North America

Swap rates are generated by a model, the LIBOR Market Model Plus (LMM+), which projects a full swap curve at monthly intervals. Previously the LMM model was used to generate scenarios. Forward rates are assumed to have a distribution that lies between the log-normal and normal distributions. Although this no longer guarantees non-negative interest rates, it maintains interest rates within a more plausible range than the standard Libor Market Model, and gives a better fit to certain swaption volatility surfaces. The model is calibrated to volatilities for swaptions for 10 year swaps for a range of option terms and strike rates. Swaption volatilities are taken from SuperDerivatives. Tests have been performed to ensure that sufficient scenarios have been used that the result converges to the stochastic value of the business being valued.

      The total annual return on equities is calculated as the return on one-year swaps plus an excess return. This excess return is modelled using a log-normal model where volatility varies by time horizon. This allows the model to capture the term structure of implied volatilities. The model is calibrated to at-the-money options of a variety of terms. Option volatilities are taken from Markit.

      Assumptions for correlations between asset classes have been set based on historic data.

Model - Delta Lloyd

The interest rate model used is a short rate G2++ model. The model is calibrated to the QIS5 yield curve and the swaption implied volatilities. Swaption implied volatilities are taken from Bloomberg. The equity model is a Heston model.

      Assumptions for correlations between asset classes have been set based on historic data.

Asset classes

The significant asset classes for UK participating business are equities, property and long-term fixed rate bonds. The most significant assumptions are the distribution of future long-term interest rates (nominal and real) and swaption implied volatilities

      For many businesses, including US, France and Delta Lloyd, the most important assets are fixed rate bonds of various durations.

Summary statistics

Swaption implied volatilities

The implied volatility is that determined by Black-Scholes' formula to reproduce the market price of the option. The following table sets out the model swaption implied volatilities.

 

 
2010 Swap length
 
2009 Swap length
Option length
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
 
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
UK sterling
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10 years
15.3%
14.8%
14.3%
13.6%
 
n/a
n/a
14.1%
n/a
15 years
14.1%
13.6%
13.1%
12.3%
 
n/a
n/a
14.6%
n/a
20 years
13.1%
12.5%
12.0%
11.2%
 
n/a
n/a
14.4%
n/a
25 years
12.3%
11.7%
11.2%
10.4%
 
n/a
n/a
14.0%
n/a
Euro
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10 years
21.2%
20.9%
20.6%
20.3%
 
17.9%
17.8%
17.7%
17.6%
15 years
20.7%
20.1%
19.5%
18.8%
 
18.0%
17.6%
17.3%
16.9%
20 years
19.2%
18.5%
17.8%
16.9%
 
17.1%
16.7%
16.3%
15.7%
25 years
17.8%
16.9%
16.1%
15.2%
 
16.2%
15.6%
15.0%
14.4%
Delta Lloyd
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10 years
17.8%
18.1%
18.8%
19.8%
 
14.5%
15.3%
17.3%
18.6%
15 years
20.5%
21.0%
21.4%
21.7%
 
15.2%
15.8%
17.8%
18.9%
20 years
25.2%
25.3%
24.3%
23.4%
 
15.8%
16.7%
18.1%
18.5%
25 years
28.5%
26.4%
24.0%
22.5%
 
16.8%
17.5%
18.2%
18.3%
US dollar
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10 years
24.0%
23.6%
22.9%
22.2%
 
20.0%
18.9%
18.0%
17.3%
15 years
23.9%
23.1%
22.2%
21.1%
 
17.5%
16.4%
15.6%
15.0%
20 years
23.0%
21.9%
20.6%
19.4%
 
15.5%
14.5%
13.8%
13.2%
25 years
21.7%
20.4%
19.1%
17.8%
 
13.7%
12.9%
12.2%
11.6%

 

For businesses where stochastic scenarios are calibrated before the year end, the closing embedded value has been adjusted for the subsequent decrease in market volatilities up to the year end.

 

 

 

Page 165

 

 

E18 - Principal assumptions continued

Equity implied volatilities

The implied volatility is that determined by the Black-Scholes' formula to reproduce the market price of the option. The following tables set out the model equity implied volatilities.

 








2010






Option length

UK

France

Italy

Ireland

Delta

Lloyd

Spain

US


UK

France

Italy

Ireland

Delta

Lloyd

Spain

US

5 years

24.5%

29.0%

27.5%

27.7%

27.2%

32.4%

28.8%


25.3%

29.2%

26.9%

27.7%

27.5%

27.0%

26.9%

10 years

25.5%

28.4%

27.0%

27.6%

27.0%

31.2%

29.1%


26.6%

29.0%

26.5%

27.3%

29.1%

25.7%

27.8%

15 years

26.4%

29.1%

26.1%

28.4%

26.3%

30.2%

29.7%


27.3%

30.0%

26.4%

28.1%

30.5%

26.5%

29.1%

Property implied volatilities

Best estimate levels of volatility have been used in the absence of meaningful option prices from which implied levels of volatility can be derived.

      For the UK and Delta Lloyd, model property implied volatility is 15% for 31 December 2010 (31 December 2009: 15%).

Demographic assumptions

Assumed future mortality, morbidity and lapse rates have been derived from an analysis of Aviva's recent operating experience with a view to giving a best estimate of future experience. We have anticipated future changes in experience where that is appropriate, e.g. we have allowed for improvements in future policyholder longevity.

      We have set the assumptions based on a best estimate of shareholder outcomes. In particular, where the policyholder behaviour varies with economic experience, we have set assumptions which are dynamic, i.e. vary depending on the economic assumptions. For example, surrender and option take up rate assumptions that vary according to the investment scenario under consideration have been used in the calculation of the time value of options and guarantees, based on our assessment of likely policyholder behaviour in different investment scenarios.

      Additionally, where demographic experience is not driven by economic scenarios but is asymmetric on a stand-alone basis, the best estimate assumption considers the weighted-average expected experience, not simply the median or most likely outcome.

Expense assumptions

Management expenses and operating expenses of holding companies attributed to life and related businesses have been included in the MCEV calculations and split between expenses relating to the acquisition of new business, the maintenance of business in-force and project expenses. Future expense assumptions include an allowance for maintenance expenses and a proportion of recurring project expenses. Certain expenses of an exceptional nature, when they occur, are identified separately and are generally charged as incurred. No future productivity gains have been anticipated.

      Where subsidiary companies provide administration, investment management or other services to our life businesses, the value of profits or losses arising from these services have been included in the embedded value and value of new business.

Non-hedgeable risk

For the opening balance sheet and operating profit, a charge of 2.5% has been applied to the group-diversified capital required on a 1-in-200 one-year basis over the remaining lifetime of in-force business. For the closing balance sheet, a charge of 3.3% has been applied.

      The charge is set so as to give an aggregate allowance that is in excess of the expected operational risk costs arising from the in-force covered business over its remaining lifetime.

      The capital levels used are projected to be sufficient to cover non-hedgeable risks at the 99.5% confidence level one-year after the valuation date. The capital is equal to the capital from the ICA results for those risks considered. The capital has been projected as running off over the remaining life of the in-force portfolio in line with the drivers of the capital requirement.

      In addition to the operational risk allowance, financial non-hedgeable risks and other product level asymmetries have been allowed for. These allowances are not material as significant financial non-hedgeable risks and product level asymmetries are either modelled explicitly and included in the TVOG or are included in the PVFP through the use of appropriate best estimate assumptions.

 

 

 

 

Page 166

 

E18 - Principal assumptions continued

(c) Other assumptions

Valuation of debt

Borrowings in the MCEV consolidated statement of financial position are valued on an IFRS basis, consistent with the primary financial statements. At 31 December 2010 the market value of the group's external debt, subordinated debt, preference shares including General Accident plc preference shares of £250 million (classified as non-controlling interests) and direct capital instrument was £7,279 million (31 December 2009: £6,634 million).

 


2010

£m

2009

£m

Borrowings per summarised consolidated statement of financial position - MCEV basis

14,949

15,000

Add: amount included within held for sale

-

-

Less: Securitised mortgage funding

(6,332)

(7,329)

Borrowings excluding non-recourse funding - MCEV basis

8,617

7,671

Less: Operational financing by businesses

(2,551)

(2,182)

External debt and subordinated debt - MCEV basis

6,066

5,489

Add: Preference shares (including General Accident plc) and direct capital instrument

1,440

1,440

External debt, subordinated debt, preference shares and direct capital instrument - MCEV basis

7,506

6,929

Effect of marking these instruments to market

(227)

(295)

Market value of external debt, subordinated debt, preference shares and direct capital instrument

7,279

6,634

Other

It has been assumed that there will be no changes to the methods and bases used to calculate the statutory technical provisions and current surrender values, except where driven by varying future investment conditions under stochastic economic scenarios.

 

 

 

Page 167

 

 

E19 - Sensitivity analysis

(a) Economic assumptions

The following tables show the sensitivity of the embedded value and the value of new business to:

n 10 basis point increase in the liquidity premium adjustment, where applicable;

n one and two percentage point increase and decrease in the risk-free rate, including all consequential changes (including assumed investment returns for all asset classes, market values of fixed interest assets, risk discount rates);

n 10% increase and decrease in market values of equity and property assets;

n 25% increase in equity and swaption volatilities;

n 50 basis point increase and decrease in credit spreads with no change to liquidity premium; and

n decrease in the level of required capital to 100% EU minimum (or equivalent).

 

In each sensitivity calculation, all other assumptions remain unchanged except where they are directly affected by the revised economic conditions. For example, future bonus rates are automatically adjusted to reflect sensitivity changes to future investment returns. Some of the sensitivity scenarios may have consequential effects on valuation bases, where the basis for certain blocks of business is actively updated to reflect current economic circumstances. Consequential valuation impacts on the sensitivities are allowed for where an active valuation basis is used. Where businesses have a target asset mix, the portfolio is re-balanced after a significant market movement otherwise no re-balancing is assumed.

      For new business, the sensitivities reflect the impact of a change immediately after inception of the policy.

      In general, the magnitude of the sensitivities will reflect the size of the embedded values, though this will vary as the sensitivities have different impacts on the different components of the embedded value. In addition, other factors can have a material impact, such as the nature of the options and guarantees, as well as the types of investments held.

      The credit spread sensitivities assume that the change relates to credit risk and not liquidity risk; in practice, credit spread movements may be partially offset due to changes in liquidity risk.

      Sensitivities will also vary according to the current economic assumptions, mainly due to the impact of changes to both the intrinsic cost and time value of options and guarantees. Options and guarantees are the main reason for the asymmetry of the sensitivities where the guarantee impacts to different extents under the different scenarios. This can be seen in the sensitivity of a 1%-2% movement in the interest rate for Delta Lloyd and US, where there is a significant amount of business with investment return guarantees.

Embedded value




Interest rates

2010

Embedded value

(net of tax and non-controlling interest)

As reported on
page 158

£m

10bp

increase in adjustment

to risk-free rates

£m

1%

increase

£m

1%

decrease

£m

2%

increase

£m

2%

decrease

£m

United Kingdom

6,370

150

(205)

185

(435)

385

France

2,940

5

(60)

(15)

(140)

(245)

Ireland

827

-

(30)

40

(55)

60

Italy

597

-

(20)

35

(40)

80

Poland

1,119

-

(60)

65

(110)

135

Spain

554

10

(15)

15

(35)

30

Other Europe

321

-

(5)

15

(15)

25

Aviva Europe

6,358

15

(190)

155

(395)

85

Delta Lloyd

1,496

65

350

(480)

580

(1,235)

Europe

7,854

80

160

(325)

185

(1,150)

North America

1,231

170

(180)

65

(460)

60

Asia Pacific

676

-

35

(75)

45

(230)

Total

16,131

400

(190)

(150)

(665)

(935)

 

 

 

 

Page 168

 

E19 - Sensitivity analysis continued


Equity/property



Market values


2010
Embedded value

(net of tax and non-controlling interest)

As reported on page 158
 £m

10% increase

£m

10% decrease

£m

Volatility

25%

 increase

£m

United Kingdom

6,370

275

(325)

(215)

France

2,940

150

(165)

(125)

Ireland

827

20

(20)

-

Italy

597

-

-

-

Poland

1,119

10

(10)

-

Spain

554

10

(10)

(10)

Other Europe

321

5

-

-

Aviva Europe

6,358

195

(205)

(135)

Delta Lloyd

1,496

255

(260)

(35)

Europe

7,854

450

(465)

(170)

North America

1,231

25

(20)

-

Asia Pacific

676

20

(20)

(5)

Total

16,131

770

(830)

(390)

 




Corporate bond

credit spread


2010

Embedded value

(net of tax and non-controlling interest)

As reported on page 162

£m

Swaption implied volatilities 25% increase
£m

50bps increase

£m

50bps decrease

£m

EU minimum capital or equivalent £m

United Kingdom

6,370

(15)

(700)

765

15

France

2,940

(85)

(125)

160

10

Ireland

827

-

-

-

5

Italy

597

-

-

-

5

Poland

1,119

-

-

-

5

Spain

554

(5)

(60)

55

5

Other Europe

321

-

-

-

-

Aviva Europe

6,358

(90)

(185)

215

30

Delta Lloyd

1,496

10

(75)

85

10

Europe

7,854

(80)

(260)

300

40

North America

1,231

(160)

(920)

825

90

Asia Pacific

676

(5)

(15)

15

30

Total

16,131

(260)

(1,895)

1,905

175

New business




Interest rates

2010

Value of new business

(net of tax and non-controlling interest)

As reported on page 159

£m

10bp

increase in adjustment

to risk-free rates

£m

1% increase

£m

1% decrease

£m

2% increase

£m

2%

 decrease

£m

United Kingdom

254

25

(22)

28

(39)

65

France

100

-

(6)

6

(15)

6

Ireland

1

-

1

(1)

2

(2)

Italy

42

-

(3)

2

(6)

1

Poland

29

-

(2)

2

(4)

5

Spain

43

1

(2)

2

(4)

1

Other Europe

15

-

(1)

1

(2)

3

Aviva Europe

230

1

(13)

12

(29)

14

Delta Lloyd

(41)

1

11

(12)

17

(31)

Europe

189

2

(2)

-

(12)

(17)

North America

(126)

15

(10)

4

(40)

(16)

Asia Pacific

41

-

13

(20)

22

(61)

Total

358

42

(21)

12

(69)

(29)

 

 

 

Page 169

 

E19 - Sensitivity analysis continued


Equity/property



Market values


2010
Value of new business

(net of tax and non-controlling interest)

As reported on
page 149
£m

10% increase

£m

10% decrease

£m

Volatility

25%

 increase

£m

United Kingdom

254

-

-

-

France

100

6

(7)

(3)

Ireland

1

-

-

-

Italy

42

1

(1)

-

Poland

29

-

-

-

Spain

43

-

-

-

Other Europe

15

-

-

-

Aviva Europe

230

7

(8)

(3)

Delta Lloyd

(41)

6

(6)

-

Europe

189

13

(14)

(3)

North America

(126)

-

-

-

Asia Pacific

41

-

-

-

Total

358

13

(14)

(3)

 




Corporate bond

credit spread


2010

Value of new business

(net of tax and non-controlling interest)

As reported on
page 149

£m

Swaption implied volatilities 25% increase
£m

50bps increase

£m

50bps decrease

£m

EU minimum capital or equivalent £m

United Kingdom

254

-

(58)

61

2

France

100

(6)

(1)

3

3

Ireland

1

-

-

-

-

Italy

42

-

-

-

1

Poland

29

-

-

-

-

Spain

43

-

(7)

6

1

Other Europe

15

-

-

-

-

Aviva Europe

230

(6)

(8)

9

5

Delta Lloyd

(41)

-

(1)

1

1

Europe

189

(6)

(9)

10

6

North America

(126)

(17)

(76)

67

15

Asia Pacific

41

-

-

-

5

Total

358

(23)

(143)

138

28

(b) Non-economic assumptions

The following tables below show the sensitivity of the embedded value and the value of new business to the following changes in non-economic assumptions:

n 10% decrease in maintenance expenses (a 10% sensitivity on a base expense assumption of £10 pa would represent an expense assumption of £9 pa). Where there is a "look through" into service company expenses the fee charged by the service company is unchanged while the underlying expense decreases;

n 10% decrease in lapse rates (a 10% sensitivity on a base assumption of 5% pa would represent a lapse rate of 4.5% pa); and

n 5% decrease in both mortality and morbidity rates disclosed separately for life assurance and annuity business.

 

No future management actions are modelled in reaction to the changing non-economic assumptions. In each sensitivity calculation all other assumptions remain unchanged. No changes to valuation bases have been included.

 

 

 

Page 170

 

E19 - Sensitivity analysis continued

Embedded value

2010

Embedded value

(net of tax and non-controlling interest)

As reported on
page 158

£m

10% decrease in maintenance expenses

£m

10% decrease in lapse rates

£m

5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates - life assurance

£m

5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates -annuity business

£m

United Kingdom

6,370

185

50

65

(310)

France

2,940

45

35

30

-

Ireland

827

15

25

5

(10)

Italy

597

10

-

5

-

Poland

1,119

25

45

15

-

Spain

554

10

40

10

(5)

Other Europe

321

15

25

5

-

Aviva Europe

6,358

120

170

70

(15)

Delta Lloyd

1,496

210

5

15

(80)

Europe

7,854

330

175

85

(95)

North America

1,231

75

(30)

65

(15)

Asia Pacific

676

30

5

10

-

Total

16,131

620

200

225

(420)

New business

2010

Value of new business

(net of tax and non-controlling interest)

As reported on
page 149

£m

10% decrease in maintenance expenses

£m

10% decrease in lapse rates

£m

5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates - life assurance

£m

5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates -annuity business

£m

United Kingdom

254

9

12

4

(23)

France

100

4

7

2

-

Ireland

1

1

1

-

-

Italy

42

2

1

1

-

Poland

29

1

4

2

-

Spain

43

1

7

2

-

Other Europe

15

1

5

1

-

Aviva Europe

230

10

25

8

-

Delta Lloyd

(41)

9

2

1

(3)

Europe

189

19

27

9

(3)

North America

(126)

8

(13)

10

-

Asia Pacific

41

8

4

2

-

Total

358

44

30

25

(26)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Page 171

 

Glossary

 

Product Definitions

Annuities

A type of policy that pays out regular amounts of benefit, either immediately and for the remainder of a person's lifetime, or deferred to commence from a future date. Immediate annuities may be purchased for an individual and his or/her dependents or on a bulk purchase basis for groups of people. Deferred annuities are accumulation contracts, which may be used to provide benefits in retirement, and may be guaranteed, unit-linked or index-linked.

Bonds and savings

These are accumulation products with single or regular premiums and unit-linked or guaranteed investment returns. Our product ranges include single premium investment bonds, regular premium savings plans and mortgage endowment products.

Critical illness cover

Critical illness cover pays out a lump sum if the insured person is diagnosed with a serious illness that meets the plan definition. The cover is often provided in conjunction with other benefits under a protection contract.

Deferred annuities

An annuity (or pension) due to be paid from a future date or when the policyholder reaches a specified age. A deferred annuity may be funded by a policyholder by payment of a series of regular contributions or by a capital sum (the latter often provided from a pension fund).

Group pensions

A pension plan that covers a group of people, which is typically purchased by a company and offered to their employees.

Guaranteed annuities

A policy that pays out a fixed regular amount of benefit for a defined period.

Income drawdown

The policyholder can transfer money from any pension fund to an income drawdown plan from which they receive an income. The remainder of the pension fund continues to be invested, giving it the potential for growth.

Index linked annuities

An index linked annuity is a type of deferred annuity whose credited interest is linked to an equity index. It guarantees a minimum interest rate and protects against a loss of principal.

Investment sales

Comprise retail sales of mutual fund type products such as unit trusts, individual savings accounts (ISAs) and Open Ended Investment Companies (OEICs).

 

 

ISAs

Individual savings accounts - Tax efficient plans for investing in stocks and shares, cash deposits or life insurance investment funds, subject to certain limits. Introduced in the UK in 1999.

Monolines

Financial companies specialising in a single line of products such as credit cards, mortgages or home equity loans.

Mortgage endowment

An insurance contract combining savings and protection elements which is designed to repay the principal of a loan or mortgage.

Mortgage life insurance

A protection contract designed to pay off the outstanding amount of a mortgage or loan in the event of death of the insured.

Non profits

Long-term savings and insurance products sold in the UK other than "With profits" (see definition below) products.

OEIC

Open ended investment company is a collective investment fund structured as a limited company in which investors can buy and sell shares.

Pensions

A means of providing income in retirement for an individual and possibly his/her dependants. Our pensions products include personal and group pensions, stakeholder pensions and income drawdown.

Personal pensions

A pension plan tailored to the individual policyholder, which includes the options to stop, start or change their payments.

Protection

An insurance contract that protects the policyholder or his/her dependants against financial loss on death or ill-health. Our
product ranges include term assurance, mortgage life insurance, flexible whole life and critical illness cover.

Regular premium

A series of payments are made by the policyholder, typically monthly or annually, for part of or all of the duration of the contract.

SICAVs

Société d'investissement à capital variable (variable capital investment company). This is an open-ended investment fund, structured as a legally independent joint stock company, whose units are issued in the form of shares.

 

 

 

Page 172

 

Product Definitions cont.

Single premium

A single lump sum is paid by the policyholder at commencement of the contract.

Stakeholder pensions

Low cost and flexible pension plans available in the UK, governed by specific regulations.

Superannuation

Superannuation is a pension product sold in Australia where employers pay a proportion of an employee's salaries and wages into
a fund, which can be accessed when the employee retires.

Takaful

Insurance products that observe the rules and regulations of Islamic law.

Term assurance

A simple form of life insurance, offering cover over a fixed number of years during which a lump sum will be paid out if the life insured dies.

Unit trusts

A form of open ended collective investment constituted under a trust deed, in which investors can buy and sell units.

Unit-linked annuities

A unit-linked annuity is a type of deferred annuity which is invested in units of investment funds, whose value depends directly on the market value of assets in those funds.

Whole life

Whole life insurance is a protection policy that remains in force for the insured's whole life. Traditional whole life contracts have fixed premium payments that typically cannot be missed without lapsing the policy. Flexible whole life contracts allow the policyholder to vary the premium and/or amount of life cover, within certain limits.

With profits

A type of long-term savings and insurance product sold in the UK under with profits policies premiums are paid into a separate fund. Policyholders receive a return on their policies through bonuses, which "smooth" the investment return from the assets which premiums are invested in. Bonuses are declared on an annual and terminal basis. Shareholders have a participating interest in the with-profit funds and any declared bonuses. Generally, policyholder and shareholder participation in with-profit funds in the UK is split 90:10.

Wrap investments

An account in which a broker or fund manager executes investment decisions on behalf of a client in exchange for a single quarterly or annual fee, usually based on the total assets in the account rather than the number of transactions.

 

General terms

Available for Sale (AFS)

Securities that have been acquired neither for short-term sale nor to be held to maturity. These are shown at fair value on the statement of financial position and changes in value are taken straight to equity instead of the income statement.

Association of British Insurers (ABI)

Association of British Insurers - A major trade association for UK insurance companies, established in July 1985.

Acquired value of in force (AVIF)

An estimate of future profits that will emerge over the remaining term of all existing life and pensions policies for which premiums are being paid or have been paid at the statement of financial position date.

Bancassurance

An arrangement whereby banks and building societies sell insurance and investment products to their customers on behalf of other financial providers.

Combined Code on Corporate Governance

The Combined Code on Corporate Governance sets out guidance in the form of principles and provisions on how companies should be directed and controlled to follow good governance practice. The Financial Services Authority requires companies listed in the UK to disclose, in relation to the Combined Code, how they have applied its principles and whether they have complied with its provisions throughout the accounting year. Where the provisions have not been complied with, companies must provide an explanation for this.

Deferred acquisition costs (DAC)

The cost directly attributable to the acquisition of new business for insurance and participating investment contracts (excluding those written in the UK) are deferred to the extent that they are expected to be recoverable out of future margins in revenue on these contracts.

Fair value

The price that a reasonable buyer would be willing to pay and a reasonable seller would be willing to accept for a product on the
open market.

 

FSA

The UK's Financial Services Authority - Main regulatory body appointed by the government to oversee the financial services industry in the UK. Since December 2001 it has been the single statutory regulator responsible for the savings, insurance and investment business.

 

Page 173

 

General terms cont.

Funds under management

Represents all assets actively managed or administered by or on behalf of the Group including those funds managed by third parties.

Funds under management by Aviva

Represents all assets actively managed or administered by the fund management operations of the Group.

General insurance

Also known as non-life or property and casualty insurance. Casualty insurance primarily covers losses arising from accidents that cause injury to other people or damage property of others. Property insurance covers loss or damage through fire, theft, flood, storms and other specified risks.

Gross written premiums

The total earnings or revenue generated by sales of insurance products, before any reinsurance is taken into account. Not all premiums written will necessarily be treated as income in the current financial year, because some of them could relate to insurance cover for a subsequent period.

"Hard" insurance market

A term used to describe the state of the general insurance market. A "hard" insurance market is characterised by high levels of underwriting profits and the ability of insurers to charge high premium rates. Hard insurance markets generally occur when capital is scarce and are the opposite of "soft" insurance markets.

Independent Financial Advisers (IFAs)

A person or organisation authorised to give advice on financial matters and to sell the products of all financial service providers. In the UK they are legally obliged to offer the product that best suits their clients' needs. Outside the UK IFAs may be referred to by other names.

IFRS

International Financial Reporting Standards.
These are accounting regulations designed to ensure comparable statement of financial position preparation and disclosure, and are the standards that all publicly listed companies in the
European Union are required to use.

IFRS operating profit

From continuing operations on an IFRS basis, stated before tax attributable to shareholders' profits, impairment of goodwill and exceptional items. This is also referred to as adjusted operating profit

Inherited estate

In the UK, the assets of the long-term with-profit funds less the realistic reserves for non-profit policies, less asset shares aggregated across the with-profit policies and any additional amounts expected at the valuation date to be paid to in-force policyholders in the future in respect of smoothing costs and guarantees.

 

Long-term and savings business

Collective term for life insurance, pensions, savings, investments and related business.

Market Consistent Embedded Value

Aviva's Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) methodology which is in accordance with the MCEV Principles published by the CFO Forum in June 2008 as amended in October 2009.

Net written premiums

Total gross written premiums for the given period, minus premiums paid over or 'ceded' to reinsurers.

Present value of new business (PVNBP)

Present value of new regular premiums plus 100% of single premiums, calculated using assumptions consistent with those used to determine the value of new business under Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) principles published by the CFO Forum of major European listed and non-listed insurance companies.

"Soft" insurance market

A term used to describe the state of the general insurance market. A "soft" insurance market is characterised by low levels of profitability and market competition driving premium rates lower. Soft insurance markets generally occur when there is excess capital and are the opposite of "hard" insurance markets.

Turnbull Guidance on Internal Control

The Turnbull guidance sets out best practice on internal controls for UK listed companies, and provides additional guidance in applying certain sections of the Combined Code.

Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) terms

Asymmetric risk

Risks that will cause shareholder profits to vary where the variation above and below the average are not equal in distribution.

CFO Forum

The CFO Forum www.cfoforum.nl is a high-level group formed by the Chief Financial Officers of major European listed and non-listed insurance companies. Its aim is to discuss issues relating to proposed new accounting regulations for their businesses and how they can create greater transparency for investors. The Forum was created in 2002, The Market Consistent Embedded Value principles were launched in June 2008. The principles are a further development of the European Embedded Value principles first launched in May 2004.

 

 

Page 174

 

 

Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) terms cont.

Cost of non-hedgeable risks

This is the cost of undertaking those risks for which a deep and liquid market in which to hedge that risk does not exist. This can include both financial risks and non-financial risks such as mortality, persistency and expense.

Covered business

The contracts to which the MCEV methodology has been applied.

EU solvency

The excess of assets over liabilities and the worldwide minimum solvency margins, excluding goodwill and the additional value of in-force long-term business, and excluding the surplus held in the group's life funds. The group solvency calculation is determined according to the UK Financial Services Authority application of EU Insurance Groups Directive rules.

Financial options and guarantees

Features of the covered business conferring potentially valuable guarantees underlying, or options to change, the level or nature of policyholder benefits and exercisable at the discretion of the policyholder, whose potential value is impacted by the behaviour of
financial variables.

Free surplus

The amount of any capital and surplus allocated to, but not required to support, the in-force covered business.

Frictional costs

The additional taxation and investment costs incurred by shareholders through investing the Required Capital in the Company rather than directly.

Funds under management

Represents all assets actively managed or administered by or on behalf of the group including those funds managed by third parties

Group MCEV

A measure of the total consolidated value of the group with covered life business included on an MCEV basis and non-covered business (including pension schemes and goodwill) included on an IFRS basis.

Gross risk-free yields

Gross of tax yields on risk-free fixed interest investments, generally swap rates under MCEV.

 

Implicit items

Amounts allowed by local regulators to be deducted from capital amounts when determining the EU required minimum margin.


Inherited estate

The assets of the long-term with-profit funds less the realistic reserves for non-profit policies, less asset shares aggregated across the with-profit policies and any additional amounts expected at the valuation date to be paid to in-force policyholders in the future in respect of smoothing costs and guarantees.

Life business

Subsidiaries selling life and pensions contracts that are classified as covered business under MCEV.

Life MCEV

The MCEV balance sheet value of covered business as at the reporting date. Excludes non-covered business including pension schemes and goodwill.

Life MCEV operating earnings

Operating earnings on the MCEV basis relating to the lines of business included in the embedded value calculations. From continuing operations and is stated before tax, impairment of goodwill and exceptional items.

Life MCEV earnings

Total earnings on the MCEV basis relating to the lines of business included in the embedded value calculations. From continuing operations.

Look-through basis

Inclusion of the capitalised value of profits and losses arising from subsidiary companies providing administration, investment management and other services to the extent that they relate to covered business.

Long-term savings

Includes life and pension sales calculated under MCEV and retail investment sales.

Market consistent

A measurement approach where economic assumptions are such that projected asset cash flows are valued consistently with current market prices for traded assets.

Net asset value per ordinary share

Net asset value divided by the number of ordinary shares in issue. Net asset value is based on equity shareholders' funds.

Net worth

The market value of the shareholders' funds and the shareholders' interest in the surplus held in the non-profit component of the long-term business funds, determined on a statutory solvency basis and adjusted to add back any non-admissible assets, and consists of the required capital and free surplus.

 

 

 

Page 175

 

Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) terms cont.

New business margin

New business margins are calculated as the value of new business divided by the present value of new business premiums (PVNBP), and expressed as a percentage.

Present value of new business
premiums (PVNBP)

Present value of new regular premiums plus 100% of single premiums, calculated using assumptions consistent with those used to determine the value of new business.

Required capital

The amount of assets, over and above the value placed on liabilities in respect of covered business, whose distribution to shareholders
is restricted.

Risk-free rate (reference rate in CFO
Forum terminology)

In stable markets, including the period from 31 December 2006 to 30 June 2007, the risk-free rate is taken as the swap curve yield. In current markets, including the period from 1 July 2007, the risk-free rate is taken as swaps except for all contracts that contain features similar to immediate annuities and are backed by appropriate assets, including paid up group deferred annuities and all other contracts in the Netherlands, and deferred annuities and all other contracts in the US. The adjusted risk-free rate is taken as swaps plus the additional return available for products and where backing asset portfolios can be held to maturity.

Service companies

Companies providing administration or fund management services to the covered business.

Solvency cover

The excess of the regulatory value of total assets over total liabilities, divided by the regulatory value of the required minimum solvency margin.

Spread business

Contracts where a significant source of shareholder profits is the taking of credit spread risk that is not passed on to policyholders. The most significant spread business in Aviva are immediate annuities and US deferred annuities and life business.

Statutory basis

The valuation basis and approach used for reporting financial statements to local regulators.

 

Stochastic techniques

Techniques that incorporate the potential future variability in assumptions.

Symmetric risks

Risks that will cause shareholder profits to vary where the variation above and below the average are equal and opposite. Financial theory says that investors do not require compensation for non-market risks that are symmetrical as the risks can be diversified away by investors.

Time value and intrinsic value

A financial option or guarantee has two elements of value, the time value and intrinsic value. The intrinsic value is the discounted value of the option or guarantee at expiry, assuming that future economic conditions follow best estimate assumptions. The time value is the additional value arising from uncertainty about future economic conditions.

Value of new business

Is calculated using economic assumptions set at the start of each quarter and the same operating assumptions as those used to determine the embedded values at the end of the reporting period and is stated after the effect of any frictional costs. Unless otherwise stated, it is also quoted net of tax and minority interests.

 

 



 

 

 

Page 176

 

Shareholder profile

The categories of shareholders and the range and size of shareholding as at 31 December 2010 are set out below:

 

Analysis of shareholders

No. of shareholders

%

No. of shares

%

Individual

584,732

97.11

257,030,913

9.11

Banks and nominee companies

13,810

2.29

2,508,890,999

88.97

Pension fund managers and insurance companies

84

0.01

106,844

0.00

Other corporate bodies

3,542

0.59

54,119,886

1.92

Total

602,168

100

2,820,148,642

100

 

Range of shareholdings

No. of shareholders

%

No. of shares

%

1-1,000

548,877

91.66

151,469,464

5.37

1,001-5,000

47,710

7.52

89,477,091

3.17

5,001-10,000

2,933

0.41

20,374,662

0.72

10,001-250,000

1,997

0.30

90,938,140

3.23

250,001-500,000

188

0.03

68,921,413

2.45

500,001 and above

462

0.08

2,390,194,136

84.75

American Depositary Receipts (ADRs)

1

0.00

8,773,736+

0.31

Total

602,168

100

2,820,148,642

100

    +The number of registered ordinary shares represented by ADRs. Please note that each Aviva ADR represents two (2) ordinary Aviva shares.

2011 Financial Calendar

Annual General Meeting

4 May 2011

Announcement of first quarter Interim Management Statement

17 May 2011

Announcement of unaudited half year results

4 August 2011

Announcement of third quarter Interim Management Statement

3 November 2011



Annual General Meeting

The 2011 Aviva Annual General Meeting will be held at The Barbican Centre, Silk Street, London EC2Y 8DS, on Wednesday,
4 May 2011 at 11.00am.

      Details of all the resolutions to be considered at the meeting are given in the Notice of AGM, which is available on the Company's website at www.aviva.com/agm.

The voting results for the 2011 AGM, including proxy votes and votes withheld, will be accessible on the website at www.aviva.com/agm shortly after the meeting.

 

How to ask a question

If you are unable to attend the meeting but would like to ask the Board of Directors a question regarding the business of the meeting, please do so via our website at www.aviva.com/agm or send an email to agm.faq@aviva.com.  Answers to the most frequently asked questions will be published on our website shortly after the meeting.

 

 

Dividends

Dividends on Aviva ordinary shares are normally paid in May and November; please see the table below for dividend dates in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2010.

      Dividends paid on Aviva preference shares are normally paid in March, June, September and December; please visit www.aviva.com/preferenceshares for the latest dividend payment dates.

      Holders of ordinary and preference shares receive any dividends payable in sterling and holders of ADRs will receive any dividends payable in US dollars.

 

Ordinary shareholders - Have your dividends paid directly into your bank account

Visit www.aviva.com/dividends for further details or contact Equiniti to obtain a form. If your holding is less than 1,500 shares, you can set up a mandate instruction over the telephone.

 

 

Ordinary shares - 2010 final dividend dates

Ex-dividend date

23 March 2011

Record date

25 March 2011

Scrip dividend price setting period

 

Scrip dividend price announcement date

Last date for receipt of Scrip elections

23, 24, 25, 28, 29 March 2011

30 March 2011

15 April 2011

Dividend payment date*

17 May 2011

*  Please note that the ADR local payment date will be approximately 5 business days after the proposed dividend date for ordinary shares.

 

 

Online Shareholder Services Centre - www.aviva.com/shareholderservices

The online shareholder services centre has been designed to meet the specific needs of holders of Aviva ordinary shares, preference shares and ADRs, and includes features to allow you to manage your holding in Aviva easily and efficiently.

      Within the online centre you will be able to find current and historic ordinary share and ADR prices, share dealing information, news, updates and, when available, presentations from Aviva's senior management. You will also be able to download an electronic copy of recent Company reports. 

      There is also a range of frequently asked questions on holding ordinary shares, preference shares and ADRs in Aviva, which include practical and helpful information, including useful contact details.

 

Aviva share price

You can access the current share price of Aviva ordinary shares and ADRs at www.aviva.com/shareprice. If you would like to find out the price of Aviva preference shares, please visit the London Stock Exchange website at www.londonstockexchange.com.

 

Be on your guard - beware of fraudsters

Shareholders are advised to be very wary of any unsolicited telephone calls or correspondence offering to buy shares at a discount, offering free financial advice or offers of free company reports. If you receive any unsolicited advice:

n Make sure you get the correct name of the person and organisation,

n Check that they are properly authorised by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) before getting involved by visiting www.fsa.gov.uk/register/,

n Report the matter to the FSA by calling 0845 606 1234 or visit www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/consumerinformation,

n If the calls persist, hang up.

 

More detailed information on this can be found on the Consumer Financial Education Body website www.moneymadeclear.org.uk.

Contact Details

Ordinary and preference Shares

Aviva's Registrar is Equiniti. Any queries regarding Aviva shares can be directed to Equiniti by post, telephone or email. Please quote Aviva plc, together with the name and address in which the shares are held and the shareholder reference number, which you will find on your latest dividend stationery.

 

Equiniti
Aspect House
Spencer Road
Lancing
West Sussex
BN99 6DA

Email:

aviva@equiniti.com

Telephone:

0871 384 2953*

+ 44 (0) 121 415 7046
(for callers outside of the UK)

 

Computershare Investor Services PLC will be replacing Equiniti as the Company's Registrar later this year. Further details, including full contact details, will be made available on www.aviva.com/shareholderservices nearer the time and incorporated into all future shareholders communications following the transition.

ADRs

Aviva has a sponsored ADR facility administered by Citibank, NA. Any queries regarding Aviva ADRs can be directed to Citibank by post, telephone or email.

 

Citibank Shareholder Services

PO Box 43077

Providence,
Rhode Island

USA 02940-5000

 

Email:
citibank@shareholders-online.com

Telephone:
(00 1) 877 248 4237
(free phone for callers within the US)

(00 1) 781 575 4555 (for callers outside the US non free phone)

Fax inquiries:
(00 1) 201 324 3284

 

For further information about Aviva's ADR programme, please go to www.citi.com/dr.

Form 20-F

Aviva is a foreign private issuer in the United States of America and is subject to certain reporting requirements of the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Aviva files its Form 20-F with the SEC, copies of which can be found at www.aviva.com/reports.

Internet sites

Aviva owns various internet sites, most of which interlink with each other:

 

Aviva Group

www.aviva.com

UK long-term savings and general

insurance

www.aviva.co.uk

Asset management

www.avivainvestors.com

Aviva worldwide internet sites

www.aviva.com/websites

Other useful links for shareholders:

Aviva shareholder services centre

www.aviva.com/shareholderservices

ADR holders

www.aviva.com/adr

Aviva preference shareholders

www.aviva.com/preferenceshares

Dividend information for ordinary shares

www.aviva.com/dividends

Annual general meeting information

www.aviva.com/agm

Electronic voting for annual general meeting

www.aviva.com/agm

Aviva share price

www.aviva.com/shareprice

Register for electronic communications

www.aviva.com/ecomms 

 

 

 

*  Calls to 0871 numbers are charged at 8 pence per minute from a BT landline. Charges from other telephone providers may vary. Lines are open from 8.30am to 5.30pm, Monday to Friday.

†  This service will only be available until 11am on Thursday, 28 April 2011.

 

 


 

END OF PART 5 OF 5

 

 

 





 

 


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
 
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