Q1 2010 Red Flag Statistics

RNS Number : 8224K

Begbies Traynor Group PLC

27 April 2010

 



Distressed UK businesses have £55bn of liabilities at risk of default, warns Begbies Traynor

The latest economic data indicates that the UK economy appears to have turned the corner but the recovery remains fragile, with over 160,000 companies experiencing 'significant' or 'critical' financial distress.  Between them they owe over £55bn to creditors, suppliers and service providers, according to figures released today by Begbies Traynor, the leading business rescue, recovery and restructuring specialist.

In its latest Red Flag update, which monitors the warning signs of companies in distress, the  number of companies experiencing significant or critical financial problems has risen by 20,074 or 14% to 161,601 in the first quarter of 2010 (Q4 2009: 141,527).

We estimate that approximately 7% of the increase is the result of a shift in trade creditor behaviour, with an increase in court actions evidence of their growing willingness to take action against their debtors.  The remainder of the increase could be attributed to the normal seasonal uplift. 

Ric Traynor, Executive Chairman of Begbies Traynor Group, said:

"While the economy appears to be showing positive signs of recovery, the magnitude of the liabilities still at risk of default represents a serious risk to creditors, indicating the potential far-reaching impact of these levels of distress. It is this ripple effect which represents a real threat to a sustained economic recovery.

"Faced with these risks, and a growing need to bolster their own funding for the recovery phase, trade creditors are increasingly seizing the opportunity to take action against their debtors in order to raise much needed working capital. This shift in behaviour heralds a new phase in the cycle, putting businesses experiencing financial problems at greater risk of failure."

Interest rates will also have a role to play, with the latest Reuters poll of over 50 financial institutions predicting a rise of 1% over the next twelve months, thereby tripling current base rate, with some banks forecasting a rise of as much as 1.5%. 

Traynor added: "Low interest rates have been one of the principal reasons why business failures have not yet reached the peak levels many feared this savage recession would cause. A rise may tip more struggling businesses over the edge later in the year and through into 2011, especially in the embattled but vital SME sector which cannot afford the protection of sophisticated interest rate hedging."

Red Flag reveals that the last three months marks the second consecutive quarter of increases in the number of problem companies. In Q3 2009, a total of 134,000 were reported as experiencing critical or significant problems. 

These figures are lower than early 2009 as economicstimulus and government support measures have provided welcome support for companies that may have otherwise found it impossible to survive.  However, Begbies Traynor's experience of previous recessions shows that the recovery phase of the economic cycle has represented the greatest challenge to vulnerable SMEs, meaning that the inevitable withdrawal of the government's support will need to be handled sensitively to ensure a soft landing.

The sectors worst affected in the first quarter of 2010 include Construction, in which  companies experiencing significant or critical financial problems were up 30%, Professional Services up 19%, Property Services up 42%, Recruitment up 18% and Retail up 19% on the previous quarter. Sharp rises in input costs coupled with one of the worst winters for decades combined to make this a particularly difficult period across a number of sectors.

Around the country, Scotland was yet again one of the worst affected on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with the number of companies experiencing significant or critical problems up 18% on the previous quarter to 10,377. Scotland was closely followed by the North West & North Wales (19,081 companies - up 17%) and the South West & South Wales (22,426 companies - up 17%).

Q1 2010 Red Flag Alert Statistics

'Significant' and 'Critical' problems by Sector:

Sector	Q1 2009	Q1 2010	Percentage change	Q4 2009	Q1 2010	Percentage change
Automotive	4,906	4,178	-15%	4,021	4,178	4%
Construction	24,281	22,990	-5%	17,736	22,990	30%
IT	9,480	8,203	-13%	7,269	8,203	13%
Engineering	2,455	2,131	-13%	1,934	2,131	10%
Print & Packaging	2,825	2,322	-18%	2,091	2,322	11%
Manufacturing	8,052	6,820	-15%	6,111	6,820	12%
Property Services	20,159	16,385	-19%	11,556	16,385	42%
Recruitment	1,510	1,725	14%	1,459	1,725	18%
Professional Services	11,167	9,620	-14%	8,115	9,620	19%
Retail	13,137	12,156	-7%	10,199	12,156	19%

'Significant' and 'Critical' problems by Region:

Region	Q1 2009	Q1 2010	Percentage change	Q4 2009	Q1 2010	Percentage change
Scotland	11,384	10,377	-9%	8,809	10,377	18%
North East & Yorkshire	16,520	14,317	-13%	12,612	14,317	14%
North West & North Wales	21,457	19,081	-11%	16,374	19,081	17%
East Midlands	10,586	9,068	-14%	8,013	9,068	13%
West Midlands	15,451	13,880	-10%	12,970	13,880	7%
South East & East Anglia	85,659	72,462	-15%	63,632	72,462	14%
South West & South Wales	24,716	22,416	-9%	19,117	22,416	17%

Total UK 'Significant' and 'Critical' problems:

UK Total

185,773

161,601

-13%

141,527

161,601

14%

For further information, please contact:

Hogarth

Lucinda Kemeny / James White                                                                020 7357 9477

                                                         [e-mail] / [e-mail]

About Begbies Traynor Red Flag Alert

Red Flag Alert measures corporate distress signals through a comprehensive and complex methodology, drawing on factual legal and financial data from a wide range of relevant sources for companies that have been trading for over a year.

The survey monitors the numbers of companies experiencing difficulties in two categories: "Significant Problems" and "Critical Problems".  

Companies with "Significant Problems" are those with either a court action and/or poor, very poor insolvent or out date accounts.

Companies with "Critical Problems" are those with CCJs totalling £5,000 or more and/or Wind-Up Petition related actions.

Since November 2009, Red Flag Alert has been commercially available to all businesses, on an annual subscription basis, to help them better understand risk and exposure and help prepare them for the future. 

About Begbies Traynor Group

Begbies Traynor Group plc is a specialist professional services organisation providing independent professional advice and solutions to businesses, financial institutions, the accountancy professions and individuals in the areas of corporate finance, recovery, investigation, risk management, commercial finance and specialist tax advice. It is listed on AIM (Ticker: BEG).

 

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