Performance Review
BH Macro Limited
23 March 2007
BH Macro Limited
BH Macro Limited (the 'Company'), which is a feeder fund investing in the Brevan
Howard Master Fund Limited (the 'Master Fund'), has been supplied by Brevan
Howard Asset Management LLP ('BHAM') with the following information regarding
the Master Fund in respect of the Master Fund's February 2007 performance and
outlook.
In particular, it should be noted that the figures regarding the monthly net
asset value performance returns for February 2007 for Brevan Howard Fund Limited
are provided purely for informational purposes. The proceeds of the offering of
shares in BH Macro Limited will not be invested in shares of the Master Fund
until 2 April 2007 and any returns in the Master Fund will not accrue to BH
Macro until such investment is made.
* - * - *
Brevan Howard Master Fund Limited Monthly Report for February 2007
Performance Review
The monthly net asset value performance returns for February 2007 for Brevan
Howard Fund Limited ('BHFL'), an Irish Stock Exchange listed feeder fund for the
Master Fund, were as follows:
+--------------------+----------+
|USD Class A Shares |0.74% |
+--------------------+----------+
|EUR Class A Shares |0.62% |
+--------------------+----------+
|GBP Class A Shares |0.73% |
+--------------------+----------+
These figures, which are unaudited, are net of all investment management fees
and all other fees and expenses payable by BHFL.
Most of the Master Fund's profit during February 2007 came from fixed income
directional strategies. In particular, the Master Fund benefited from its long
positions in the USD, EUR and JPY curves.
Small losses were incurred in the Master Fund's fixed income long volatility
position and FX short JPY position.
Outlook
US
Growth is estimated to have been 2% in Q4 2006 and so far in the current quarter
this rate appears not to have increased. Such a pace could shift the Fed into
rate cutting mode. However, we believe the Fed is on hold for now. This view is
based on two considerations. First, inflation remains high and has become less
responsive to slower growth. Secondly, the Fed's expectations of growth now fall
in a lower range compared to the 1990s.
The sharp sell-off in US equities at the end of the month raised the spectre of
financial crisis, which was exacerbated by weaker growth data and distress in
subprime mortgage lending. We think, however, that there is little reason to
believe that these factors will have a significant impact on macroeconomic
performance. The equity market gave up its YTD gains but is up nearly 10% over
the prior year. While markets continue to function efficiently, we do not think
policy will react to relatively well-contained asset prices and credit distress.
Europe
GDP growth in the Eurozone is widespread and business confidence remains firm,
despite the impact of the sell-off in world markets at the end of February.
The impact of the 3% rise in German VAT on inflation in Germany, and the rest of
the Eurozone, has been limited. Prices of most goods and services in Germany
have risen, but companies have absorbed most of the shock in their profit
margins. Further VAT-related price increases are expected however.
Money expansion has accelerated. In the year to January, the stock of M3
expanded by 9.8%. Despite interest rates being 150bp higher than at the start of
this tightening cycle, money expansion continues unabated. The relatively flat
yield curve, a rapidly expanding private equity sector and M&A activity fuel
liquidity expansion.
The ECB conceded inflation would decrease this year, essentially due to energy
prices, but warned that one should not lose the medium-term outlook, which had
not improved. The strength of activity levels and money growth figures imply
further hikes are possible, despite recent downward surprises on inflation.
UK
The BoE left rates unchanged in February, despite conflicting views between
members of the MPC.
The evidence suggests that this pause was justified. First, CPI inflation fell
to 2.7%, from 3% in January. It may fall further following the announcement of
large price cuts by the major electricity and gas suppliers. Secondly, growth in
average weekly earnings in December was lower than expected (4.2% YoY). Finally,
indicators of activity levels have also been weak. We believe that the BoE will
remain on hold for the immediate future.
Japan
Japan's economy has started 2007 with a positive cycle of a stronger corporate
sector, higher household incomes and stronger consumption.
Industrial production retraced some of the strength of Q4 2006, however net
export and steady domestic demand were still strong. Hence, corporate earnings
and capital expenditure stayed at higher levels.
Although the Labour Survey has so far failed to show wage increases, the
Corporate Survey suggests wages are steadily rising, which will continue to
stimulate personal consumption.
Indeed, it seems that personal consumption has started to pick up meaningfully.
The Cabinet Office Consumption Index was up 1.8% MoM in January, which is +1.2%
above the average of Q4, 2006.
Given such a positive macroeconomic backdrop, the BoJ hiked the rate in
February. The BoJ views the current overnight rate of 50bps as too low compared
with the GDP growth rate. Hence, normalization of monetary policy is likely to
continue.
Positioning
The following table summarises the broad thrust of the Master Fund's positioning
as at the end of February:
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
|Positioning |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
|Long the short end of EUR, GBP and USD curves |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
|Positioned for steepening of the EUR curve |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
|Short USD (small) |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
|Long FX gamma |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
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Important Information
The material relating to the Master Fund and BHFL included in this announcement
has been prepared by BHAM and is provided for information purposes and does not
constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase any of the
products or services mentioned. The material provided is not intended to provide
a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Information and
opinions presented in the material relating to the Master Fund and BHFL have
been obtained or derived from sources believed by BHAM to be reliable, but BHAM
makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness.
Estimated results, performance or achievements may materially differ form any
actual results, performance or achievements. Except as required by applicable
law, the Company and BHAM expressly disclaim any obligations to update or revise
such estimates to reflect any change in expectations, new information,
subsequent events or otherwise.
This document is for information purposes only and is not an offer to invest.
All investments are subject to risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future
returns. Prospective investors are advised to seek expert legal, financial, tax
and other professional advice before making any investment decisions. BHAM is
authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
Enquiries:
Northern Trust International Fund Administration Services (Guernsey) Limited
Harry Rouillard 44 (0)1481 745315
Date: 23 March 2007
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange