Interim Results

FOREIGN & COLONIAL LATIN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC 8 September 1999 Contact: Emily McLaughlin Foreign & Colonial Emerging Markets 0171 628 2412 Claire Barry Financial Dynamics 0171 831 3113 F&C LATIN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Unaudited Preliminary Statement for the half-year to 30 June 1999 SUMMARY * Net asset per share in six months to June 1999 increased by 35.9% to US$234.75 (US$172.74 at December 1998); * Share price has increased by 49.8% to US$171.50 ( US$114.50 at December 1998); * Discount narrowed from 31.9% to 20.3% during the period but has since widened to 24.7% as at the end of August in line with its peer group; * During the period the company repurchased 450,000 ordinary shares for cancellation at an average discount of 18%; * Principal contributors to the Company's strong performance were the decision to maintain and deploy the gearing in rising markets and positive stock selection, especially in Mexico. Country weighting during this period also contributed strongly; * Outlook - Despite a short term setback the board is optimistic about future prospects for the region. Current valuations are compelling and historically the Latin American region has performed well when there is a sustained upturn in world economic growth. 6 months to 1 January 16 July 1998 % Change 30 June 1999 1998 to to 31 31 December 15 July 1998 December 1998 versus 1998 30 June 1999 Net assets attributable to equity US$ 175.04m US$ 185.36m US$ 129.58m +35.1 shareholders Net assets per 234.75 cents 247.09 cents 172.74 cents +35.9 share Net Assets per 215.29 cents 224.41 cents 168.15 cents +28.0 share (diluted) Share price 171.50 cents 184.00 cents 114.50 cents +49.8 Warrant price 95.50 cents 108.00 cents 51.50 cents +85.4 Extracts from Chairman's Statement Net Asset Value The undiluted net asset value per share on 30 June 1999 was 234.75 cents, representing a rise of 35.9% over the half year. This compares with the return on the IFC$ Latin American Total Return Index of 30.3%. The share price for the same period rose from 114.5 cents to 171.5 cents, an increase of 49.8%, outpacing the net asset value performance and thus generating a narrowing of the discount to the diluted net asset value from 31.9% to 20.3%. Market selection contributed over 1% to outperformance over the period, with the major positive contributors being the overweight position in the Mexican and Brazilian markets, and the avoidance of the Venezuelan market. The Company benefited from strong stock performance, adding over 2% to the return. In Mexico strong moves in Grupo Mexico, Televisa, and Telmex helped performance; in Argentina, YPF, Perez Companc, and Irsa outpaced the market; while the Company was adversely affected by the performance of Brazilian electricity stocks as well as shares in Telesp which underperformed. Performance over the period was enhanced over 2% by the use of gearing. Geographical Distribution of Index Your Company Assets Argentina 8.6% 7.1% Brazil 28.8% 32.2% Chile 16.3% 9.5% Colombia 2.1% 1.3% Mexico 39.7% 45.5% Peru 2.8% 1.2% Venezuela 1.7% - Cash - 3.2% Over the period the Company's effective gearing ranged between a high of 10.1% and a low of 1.2%. As at 30 June 1999 effective gearing was 2.8%. Market Reviews The Mexican market led the Latin American region over the first half, rising over 52%, as measured by the IFC$ Mexican Total Return Index. The market was bolstered both by an acceleration in economic growth which became evident at the beginning of the second quarter and also by falling interest rates, which resumed their downward trajectory after the brief bias upwards in the midst of the Brazilian devaluation in January. The announcement that the Government had negotiated a standby finance facility of $24bn to guarantee public finances and smooth the transition to the new administration cheered investors who remembered the previous Presidential transition period in late 1994 as one encompassing policy chaos and a painful devaluation. The rising oil price is a strong positive for Mexico which derives 40% of Government revenues from the commodity, and this should ensure the continuation of a sound fiscal position. The Chilean market was the second best performer in the region for the half year, rising virtually 30% according to the IFC$ Chile Total Return Index. Although the Chilean economy is one of the most stable in Latin America, a period of overheating, which was quickly followed by a sharp trade deterioration in the wake of the Asian crisis, has left the economy reeling. After several years of lacklustre performance, the market is generally responding to the Government's efforts to stimulate the economy. A recovery in growth appears to be unfolding as interest rate reductions over the last year have taken rates from 14% to the current 5%, a level which historically has been stimulative for the economy. Inflation remains low and falling, while the outlook for copper, Chile's main export, is brighter underpinned by rising global growth. Argentina rose 23% over the period, as measured by the IFC$ Argentine Total Return Index. Argentina has distinguished itself amongst other Latin borrowers by the proficiency with which it has funded its borrowing requirements, and this has led to a reputation of market savvy. The sharp deterioration in Brazilian prospects earlier in the year however, tipped the Argentine economy into recession, with the inevitable impact on the IMF sensitive fiscal accounts. With the election nearing, any political rhetoric suggesting a change to the current economic policy will cause the stockmarket to take fright. With the second strongest economic growth in the region after Mexico, the Peruvian economy is set to expand further boosted by improving commodity prices, rising agricultural and fishing output, and El Nino reconstruction expenditure. Peru recorded a 21% return for the period as measured by the IFC$ Peruvian Total Return Index. Even though Fujimori's poll ratings are low, he is still likely to seek a third mandate in the Presidential elections in 2000, and is expected to bolster his position in the second half of this year with increased public expenditure. In Brazil, beset by sliding popularity, President Cardoso needs to regain the political imperative and the authority over his coalition which has prompted him to reshuffle his cabinet in order to launch a robust programme for the second half of this year. Since the devaluation in January the economy has rebounded, and inflation is expected to remain benign at 8% for the year, confounding some economist's predictions of a return to hyperinflation. The handling of the devaluation crisis by the new Central Bank Governor, Arminio Fraga, promoted increased confidence, helping the IFC$ Brazil Total Return Index to rise 16% over the period. Interest rates have more than halved from their highs of 45% following the devaluation in January, but further reductions will be dependent on falling inflation. The Real float has cushioned against external conditions, but the trade surplus projections are still disappointing for this year, although better for next. The usual concerns over the fiscal deficit persist, and the promised budget cuts must be delivered to meet IMF targets. The Venezuelan market was virtually flat over the period despite the sharp rally in the oil price, which eases the pressures in the Venezuelan economy. Foremost in investor's minds are the political concerns surrounding President Chavez and the lack of a credible economic programme. Colombia was the only Latin market which fell over the period, falling 14% as measured by the IFC$ Colombian Total Return Index. Recent FARC guerrilla attacks have highlighted the failure of Pastrana's policy of appeasement, and demilitarisation is looking increasingly discredited. The Central Bank was forced to let the currency depreciate, and the Peso subsequently moved to the top of its new currency band, a depreciation of 12%. Political instability and currency volatility continue to undermine any economic recovery. Outlook Risk aversion is back again, but this time under a different guise, with investors concerned over the magnitude of future US interest rate rises, as well as uncertainties relating to Y2K in Latin America. Since the end of the period Latin markets have given up some of their gains, having fallen 9.5%. Global growth appears to have turned a corner and should trend higher from here, with Japanese GDP growth the main swing factor. Stronger global growth should underpin commodity prices, particularly oil and copper and these two trends should support the economic recovery in Latin America leading to 4% growth for the region in 2000, compared to less than 1% growth for this year. However, the electoral calendar is likely to cause volatility in the region with Mexico, Peru, Chile and Argentina electing Presidents in the coming year. A clear example of this volatility can already be seen in the Argentine market, where electioneering rhetoric is causing confusion amongst investors over long-term economic policy. Mexico is the clear leader in the recovery, helped by a strong US economy, firm oil prices, and conservative economic management. Peru is close behind in the recovery, but liquidity concerns are likely to keep the market subdued until the recovery is confirmed. Argentina's prospects are allied closely with an economic recovery and confidence in economic management, and any uncertainty on either point could impair the ability to roll debt in the international capital markets. Chile should recover this year helped by some recovery in copper prices but both Colombia and Venezuela are likely to be dogged by political wranglings, which could impede economic growth. In Brazil, the situation remains as ever largely a political call, with Cardoso's ability to rejuvenate both his image and the reform agenda necessary preconditions for sustained investor confidence. The Company repurchased and cancelled 450,000 shares at the end of June in two tranches at an average discount of 18%. Subsequently, the Company's discount has widened to 24.7% in common with its peer group as the Latin markets retraced some of their gains for the year. The Company will resume its repurchase programme after the closed period passes. P C D Burnell Assets 30 June 15 July 1998 31 December 1998 1999 US'000's US'000's US'000's Total Assets less current 190,951 201,007 145,129 liabilities Long-term bank loan -14,500 -14,500 -14,500 Provision for liabilities -1,388 -1,128 -1,025 and charges Non-equity interest -24 -24 -24 Net assets attributable to equity shareholders 175,039 185,355 129,580 Net Assets per ordinary 234.75 247.09 172.74 share - cents cents cents cents Net Assets per ordinary 215.29 224.41 168.15 share - (diluted) cents cents cents cents Statement of Total Return (incorporating the Revenue Account*) for the half year to 30 June 1999 Revenue Capital 30 June Revenue Capital 1 January US US 1999 US US 1998 to 15 '000's '000's Total '000's '000's July 1998 US'000s Total US'000s (Losses)/gains on invesetments - 47,526 47,526 - (42,448) (42,448) Warrants purchased for cancellation - - - - (174) (174) Exchange gains and (1) (1,259) (1,260) (5) (235) (240) losses Income 2,698 - 2,698 5,319 - 5,319 Management (1,231) - (1,231) (1,961) - (1,961) fee Other Expenses and (335) (22) (357) (350) (123) (473) credits Net return before finance costs 1,131 46,245 47,376 3,003 (42,980) (39,977) and taxation Interest payable and similar (550) - (550) (1,351) - (1,351) charges Return on ordinary activities before 581 46,245 46,826 1,652 (42,980) (41,328) taxation Taxation on ordinary (213) (375) (588) (256) 195 (61) activities Return on ordinary activities after 368 45,870 46,238 1,396 (42,785) (41,389) taxation Dividend on preference shares non - - - - - - equity Amount transferred to/(from) reserves 368 45,870 46,238 1,396 (42,785) (41,389) Return per ordinary share - cents 0.49 60.12 60.61 1.86 (57.04) (55.18) Return per ordinary share - 0.46 56.40 56.86 1.68 N/A N/A diluted - cents+ * The revenue column of this statement is the profit and loss account of the Company + Restated to comply with change in Accounting Practice FRS14 N/A - Not applicable The Directors recommend that no dividend be paid for the period to 30 June 1999. Notes No interim dividend will be paid on ordinary shares. Total return per ordinary share is based on 75,005,108 weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue (15 July 1998 75,014,500 ordinary shares). Diluted NAV and return per ordinary share have been calculated in accordance with FRS14, under which the Company's outstanding warrants are considered dilutive only if the exercise price is lower than the maket price of the ordinary shares at the period end or the period average respectively. The dilution is calculated by reference to the additional number of ordinary shares which warrantholders would have received on exercise as compared with the number of ordinary shares which warrantholders would have received on exercise as compared with the number of ordinary shares which the subscription proceeds would have purchased in the open market. Weighted average number of shares for diluted total return calculation 79,943,039 (15 July 1998 83,089,286 ordinary shares). The number of shares used for the diluted NAV calculation is 81,301,968 (15 July: 82,597,554). The Interim Report will be posted to all shareholders on or around 16 September 1999 Copies may be obtained during normal business hours from the Company's Registered Office, Exchange House, Primrose Street, London EC2A 2NY. By order of the Board F&C Latin American Investment Trust, Secretary Exchange House, Primrose Street, London EC2A 2NY.
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