BP Amoco PLC
6 April 2001
April 6, 2001 19/01
BP AMOCO TRADING UPDATE
This trading update is aimed at providing an insight into the trading
conditions experienced by BP during the first quarter ending March 31, 2001.
It is the intention to provide a regular update at or near the end of each
calendar quarter in the future.
The first quarter volume, expense, margin, throughput, sales, debt, tax rate
and other data referred to below are currently provisional and remain
estimates of likely outcomes, some being drawn from figures applicable to the
first two months or so of the quarter. All such data is subject to change and
may differ quite considerably from the final numbers that will be reported on
May 8, 2001. The statement is, however, produced in order to provide greater
disclosure to investors and potential investors of expected outcomes and to
ensure that they all receive equal access to the same information at the same
time. There will be no further updates to this information until the Company
reports its first quarter results in May.
Exploration and Production
1Q 4Q 1Q
Crude and gas price trends 2001 2000 2000
Brent dated ($/bbl) 25.84 29.56 26.90
WTI Cushing ($/bbl) 28.83 31.99 28.86
ANS USWC ($/bbl) 24.98 29.42 27.14
Gas Henry Hub first of month index ($/mmbtu) 7.00 5.28 2.58
Gas UK daily spot (p/therm) 28.11 24.97 13.44
BP realised oil price ($/bbl) - 28.08 25.59
BP realised gas prices ($/mcf) - 3.76 2.12
Production volumes for the first quarter of 2001 are not anticipated to be
below 1.9 million barrels per day (mmb/d) for liquids (4Q 2000 was 1.93 mmb/d)
and 8.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) for gas (4Q 2000 was 8.62 bcf/d).
Gas and Power
With effect from 1Q 2000, Gas and Power results have been restated to include
North American NGL volumes, previously included in Refining & Marketing.
Excluding NGLs, Gas and Power profitability for 1Q 2001 is expected to be
broadly in line with the 4Q 2000 outcome. However, due to the weakening of
liquids prices relative to gas, NGL unit profit is expected to have fallen
sharply to around breakeven in the quarter. Replacement cost operating profit
for the NGL business in 2000 was as follows:
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year
$ million 89 88 84 123 384
Refining and Marketing
1Q 4Q 1Q
2001 2000 2000
estimate
Refining Global Indicator Margin* ($/bbl) 4.0+/- 4.5 2.4
The 1Q 2001 Refining Global Indicator Margin (GIM) is expected to be down from
4Q 2000, as stronger US margins have been offset by weaker European and Asian
margins. Refining profitability is also being negatively impacted by high
natural gas and US West Coast electricity prices.
BP 1Q 2001 refining throughputs are expected to be down about 5 per cent from
4Q 2000 due to planned heavy 1Q 2001 turnaround activity.
BP 1Q 2001 retail marketing margins are expected to be lower than in 4Q 2000
(10-15 per cent) primarily due to continuing competitive pressures on the US
West Coast and in the UK.
Total marketing sales in 1Q 2001 are expected to be up significantly from 1Q
2000 (30-35 per cent) due to the addition of Arco and Castrol volumes, but
down slightly from 4Q 2000 (3-5 per cent).
*Representative of general industry refining margins weighted based on BP's
portfolio. Actual margins may differ due to refinery configuration and
operating practices.
Chemicals
4Q 1Q
2000 2000
Weighted Chemicals Indicator Margin ($/te) 96 114
Chemicals production volumes for 1Q 2001 are expected to be in the middle of a
range between the first quarter of 2000 (5,703 kte) and the fourth quarter of
2000 (5,385 kte).
Chemicals margins in 1Q 2001 are expected to be weaker than the prior quarter
as prices did not support high feedstock and utility costs. US natural gas
prices rose sharply in the fourth quarter of 2000 and remained high during the
first quarter of 2001. Partially offsetting this has been a slight firming of
the Euro during the quarter.
*The Chemicals Indicator Margin is a weighted average of externally-based
product margins. It is based on market data collected by Chem Systems in their
quarterly market analyses, then weighted on BP's product portfolio. This is
described more fully in the Group's quarterly results releases.
Debt
End March gross debt is expected to be around $2bn lower than the end 2000
level of $21.2bn.
Tax
The effective tax rate on the proforma result adjusted for special items is
anticipated to be unchanged on last quarter's figure of 28 per cent.
Stock Purchases
The company purchased for cancellation 59.7 million of its own shares during
the quarter.
- ENDS -
*A Private Investor is a recipient of the information who meets all of the conditions set out below, the recipient:
Obtains access to the information in a personal capacity;
Is not required to be regulated or supervised by a body concerned with the regulation or supervision of investment or financial services;
Is not currently registered or qualified as a professional securities trader or investment adviser with any national or state exchange, regulatory authority, professional association or recognised professional body;
Does not currently act in any capacity as an investment adviser, whether or not they have at some time been qualified to do so;
Uses the information solely in relation to the management of their personal funds and not as a trader to the public or for the investment of corporate funds;
Does not distribute, republish or otherwise provide any information or derived works to any third party in any manner or use or process information or derived works for any commercial purposes.
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