Trading Statement
BP PLC
4 April 2002
April 4, 2002
BP 1Q'02 TRADING UPDATE
This trading update is aimed at providing an overview of the revenue and trading
conditions experienced by BP during the first quarter ending March 31, 2002.
The first quarter volume, expense, margin, throughput, sales, debt, tax rate and
other data referred to below are currently provisional and remain estimates of
likely outcomes, some being drawn from figures applicable to the first month or
so of the quarter. All such data are subject to change and may differ quite
considerably from the final numbers that will be reported on April 30, 2002. The
statement is, however, produced in order to provide greater disclosure to
investors and potential investors of expected outcomes and to ensure that they
all receive equal access to the same information at the same time.
1Q Headlines
• 1Q 2002 oil and gas production slightly below 3.5mmboe/d, in line with
production levels in 1Q 2001.
• Liquids marker prices have strengthened during the quarter. However,
average realizations are only up slightly on 4Q 2001 because of lag effects
and differentials.
• Refining and marketing margins down approximately 30% and 45%,
respectively from 4Q 2001. Downstream environment in aggregate at weakest
level since early 1990s.
• Chemicals trading environment similar to 4Q 2001.
• Results reflect FRS 19 deferred tax accounting change.
Exploration and Production
1Q'02 4Q'01 1Q'01
Brent dated ($/bbl) 21.13 19.41 25.75
WTI ($/bbl) 21.54 20.31 28.71
ANS USWC ($/bbl) 19.76 17.79 24.93
Gas Henry Hub first of month index 2.35 2.43 7.08
($/mmbtu)
Production is on track to deliver 5.5% growth for the year. This will be back
end loaded as indicated in guidance given at the February results meetings.
First quarter total production is projected to be slightly below 3.5 mmboe/d, in
line with the first quarter of 2001, reflecting the continued build up from new
projects offset by the effect of the sale of certain UK Southern North Sea
assets, abnormally warm weather in the UK (impacting gas liftings) and OPEC
quota reductions affecting our production in Abu Dhabi, Venezuela and also
Norway. In all, these offsets sum to around 100 mboe/d. Overall liquids
production is expected to be up around 2-3% on the first quarter of 2001,
despite OPEC quota reductions, with gas production down around 2-3% due to
weather and divestments.
Whilst crude marker prices have strengthened through the quarter, the lagging of
realisations and narrowing of WTI/Brent differentials mean we anticipate average
liquids realisations will be up slightly less than $1 per barrel versus the
previous quarter. Similarly, Henry Hub prices have strengthened across the
quarter. However, with North American gas sold on a first of the month basis,
related realisations are expected to be down by around $0.10/mcf from the
previous quarter.
Gas and Power and Renewables
Gas marketing and trading operating profits are projected to be up on 4Q 2001
due to improved trading conditions. These are expected to be partially offset
by lower profit from the NGL business as a result of lower volumes mainly due to
warm weather, and lower margins. The Ruhrgas contribution was down on 4Q 2001
due to normal phasing. Overall profitability for 1Q 2002 is likely to be broadly
in line with 4Q 2001.
As mentioned in the February results meetings, Gas Power and Renewables results
will now include Solar and Renewables activity. These were previously part of
Other Business and Corporate. Solar & Renewables continues its rapid pace of
expansion. Operating profit for the Solar and Renewables activities in 1Q 2002
is expected to be in line with typical seasonal demand for solar products. RCOP
in 1Q 2001 was $(11)m.
Refining and Marketing
First quarter 2002 was characterised by the worst combined Refining and
Marketing margins in both the US and Europe since 1992, although these have
recovered somewhat during March and are now approaching mid-cycle levels.
Refining margins have declined more than 30% from the fourth quarter of 2001 and
more than 60% from first quarter of 2001. Margins have been weak in most areas,
with particular weakness versus fourth quarter 2001 in Europe and the US West
Coast and Midwest. This low margin environment was caused by an overhang of
product stocks and low demand because of the warm winter and decreased jet fuel
consumption. Margins have strengthened in the latter part of March, driven by
lower US gasoline stocks in recent weeks.
Global Indicator Margins ($/bbl)
1Q'02 4Q'01 1Q'01
USA
- West Coast 5.43 6.25 10.94
- Gulf Coast 2.04 1.79 6.69
- Midwest 2.06 2.63 3.85
North West Europe 0.09 1.53 2.35
Singapore 0.21 1.20 0.70
Global Indicator Margin* 1.64 2.40 4.25
*The global indicator margin is a weighted average based on BP's portfolio.
Actual margins may vary because of refinery configuration, crude slate and
operating practices.
Refinery throughputs are anticipated to be up about 8% versus fourth quarter due
to the Veba acquisition. Excluding Veba, refinery throughputs are broadly in
line with fourth quarter 2001.
Retail marketing margins were considerably weaker during the quarter, reflecting
low demand, high stock levels and intense price competition. Margins are
estimated to be down approximately 45% versus fourth quarter 2001. The largest
decline in retail margins is in the US where margins are expected to be down
more than 80% versus fourth quarter 2001. BP has a proportionally high presence
in the US, with the following approximate split of total marketing sales by
region:
Total Marketing Sales (mb/d) US Europe ROW
% of Total BP Sales (including Veba) 45% 40% 15%
The recent rise in crude oil prices is also having a material impact on margins
in some areas of our Commercial businesses, where there is a short-term time lag
in passing the increased product cost on to our customers.
Marketing sales (retail and commercial) are anticipated to be up about 5% from
the previous quarter due to the Veba acquisition. Excluding Veba, marketing
sales are down about 3% from the previous quarter primarily reflecting seasonal
demand patterns. The marketing sales volumes are in line with our plans.
Chemicals
Weighted Chemicals Indicator Margin ($/te)*
1Q'02 4Q'01 3Q'01 1Q'01
N/a 108 (prov) 114 106
*The Chemicals Indicator Margin is a weighted average of externally based
product margins. It is based on market data collected by Chem Systems in their
quarterly market analyses, then weighted on BP's product portfolio. This is
described more fully in the Group's quarterly results releases.
Economic conditions at the start of 2002 were little changed since the last
quarter of 2001. Underlying demand for key products remains weak with a number
of our key margins staying near to the bottom of the cycle. There are some very
early signs of demand recovery. Production volumes should be higher than for
the same period in 2001 and are expected to be slightly above fourth quarter
2001 figures. This volume increase is primarily due to the acquisition of the
remaining shares in Erdoelchemie during 2Q 2001 and the Solvay transaction in
November. The extensive restructuring programme announced last year is on
track.
Debt
The Group's net debt gearing ratio on a proforma basis at quarter-end is
expected to be around 33%, compared with last quarter's figure of 29.5%. This
is towards the top end of our post FRS 19 target band of 25-35% due to cash
phasing associated with the Veba transaction.
Tax
The Group's effective tax rate in the first quarter on the pro-forma result
adjusted for special items is expected to be around 35%. This compares with a
rate of 35.5% in the previous quarter (after restatement in accordance with FRS
19).
Stock Purchases
There have been no stock purchases by the company during the first quarter of
2002.
- ENDS -
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange