Q4 2012 Investment Report

RNS Number : 1182W

Qatar Investment Fund PLC

23 January 2013

 



23 January 2013

Qatar Investment Fund PLC ("QIF" or the "Company")

Q4 2012 Investment Report

Qatar Investment Fund PLC (LSE: QIF), today issues its Q4 2012 Investment Report (covering the period 1 October 2012 to 31 December 2012 corresponding to the Company's financial second quarter), a pdf copy of which can be obtained from QIF's website at: www.qatarinvestmentfund.com

QIF was established to capitalize on the investment opportunities in Qatar and the Gulf Cooperation Council ("GCC") region, arising from the economic growth being experienced in the area. The Company invests in quoted Qatari equities listed on the Qatar Exchange ("QE") in addition to companies soon to be listed, with a possible allocation of up to 15% in other listed companies elsewhere in the GCC region. The Investment Adviser invests using a top-down screening process combined with fundamental industry and company analysis.

For further information:

Qatar Investment Fund plc [phone] Nick Wilson
Panmure Gordon - [phone] 3600 Andrew Potts

Maitland - [phone]

William Clutterbuck

Robbie Hynes                                  

Overview of Key Highlights

·     The Qatar Investment Fund plc (QIF or the Company) Net Asset Value (NAV) per share reached US$1.0026 on 27 December 2012. QIF NAV outperformed the benchmark (QE Index) by 72 bps, falling 4.6% as against a 5.3% decline witnessed by the benchmark during 2012.

·     According to the Qatar Statistics Authority (QSA), Qatar's nominal GDP for Q3 2012 is estimated to have grown 5.9%to QAR175.29 billion compared to Q3 2011. Going forward, according to the IMF, Qatar's real GDP is estimated to grow 6.3% year-on-year in 2012 and a further 4.9% in 2013.

·     Growth was largely driven by the non-oil and gas sectors such as Manufacturing, Government Services and Finance, Real Estate, Insurance & Business Services.

·     Population numbers in Qatar are growing steadily, having risen by 7.1% year-on-year to 1.85 million at the end of November 2012. According to the QSA, Qatar's population grew more than 18% in the past 4 years to the end of December 2012.

·     During the quarter growth in Qatar's Banking sector remained strong, driven by increases in lending (24.6% YTD growth at the end of November 2012) underpinned by massive domestic infrastructure spending. Additional project tendering and awards for the infrastructure projects are expected to kick-in in 2013 and should create further opportunities for the domestic Banking sector.

·     The Qatar market is trading at 2013E price to earnings (P/E) of 8.8x, cheaper relative to its peers such as Saudi (9.7x) and Kuwait (9.6x).

·     The Investment Adviser to QIF believes that Qatar's long term growth is underpinned by a strong infrastructure development pipeline to the tune of US$150 billion, benefiting selected Real Estate and Infrastructure companies. Additionally, increasing government spending, supportive demographics and improving consumer spending trends are expected to drive banking sector growth.

Performance and Portfolio Structure

On 27 December 2012, the QIF NAV per share reached US$1.0026. At that date the QIF share price was trading at a 9.0% discount to NAV.

Embedded image removed - please refer to the IMS on the Company's website www.qatarinvestmentfund.com/publications/quarterly-reports/ for a chart depicting the NAV compared to the share price.

Historic Performance against the QE Index

Performance	2007 5M	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
QIF (NAV)	13.90%	-36.40%	10.40%	29.90%	1.30%	-4.61%*
QE Index	27.00%	-28.80%	1.10%	24.80%	1.10%	-5.33%*

Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Insurance Company

* 27 Dec 2012 compared to 29 Dec 2011

Historic Performance of the QIF Share Price against Local and International Indices

	2010	2011	2012
QIF Share Price	23.0%	-1.5%	1.6%
QE Index	24.8%	1.1%	-4.8%
Abu Dhabi	-0.9%	-11.7%	9.5%
Bahrain	-1.8%	-20.1%	-6.8%
Dubai	-9.6%	-17.0%	19.9%
Kuwait	-0.7%	-16.4%	2.1%
Oman	6.1%	-15.7%	1.2%
Saudi Arabia	8.2%	-3.1%	6.0%
Bloomberg GCC200	13.0%	-9.3%	3.7%
MSCI World	9.6%	-7.6%	13.2%
S&P 500	12.8%	0.0%	13.4%
FTSE All-Share USD	10.9%	-6.7%	8.2%
Eurostoxx 600 USD	1.6%	-14.2%	14.4%
Source: Bloomberg

Portfolio Structure

Top 10 Holdings

As at 31 December 2012, the top five investments comprised 59.3% of the total NAV of the Company, unchanged from the end of the previous quarter (27 September 2012). The top 10 holdings of the Company constituted 84.4% of the total NAV, lower than 86.8% reported at the end of Q3 2012.

Company Name	Country	Sector	% Share
Qatar National Bank	Qatar	Banks & Financial Services	19.0%
Industries Qatar	Qatar	Industry	17.6%
Commercial Bank of Qatar	Qatar	Banks & Financial Services	8.7%
Masraf Al Rayan	Qatar	Banks & Financial Services	7.7%
Barwa Real Estate	Qatar	Real Estate	6.3%
Qatar Islamic Bank	Qatar	Banks & Financial Services	5.8%
Doha Bank	Qatar	Banks & Financial Services	5.6%
Qatar Electricity & Water Co	Qatar	Industry	5.1%
Qatar Telecom	Qatar	Telecommunication Services	4.4%
Qatar Navigation	Qatar	Transportation	4.1%

Source: Bloomberg

At the end of Q4 2012, the Company held a total of 20 positions, 17 in Qatar, two in Oman, while the Company added one position in Dubai (at the end of Q3 2012: 20 positions in Qatar and two positions in Oman). At the end of Q4 2012, the cash position increased to 3.0% of the Company's NAV.

Country Allocation

Qatar remains the Investment Adviser's favourite market within the Gulf Cooperation Council region (GCC) due to the stable political environment, substantial hydrocarbon resources, significant currency reserves, strong government balance sheet and high growth prospects driven by the government infrastructure program.

Embedded image removed - please refer to the IMS on the Company's website www.qatarinvestmentfund.com/publications/quarterly-reports/ for a chart depicting the overall portfolio allocation by country as at 31 December 2012.

Sector Allocation

Embedded image removed - please refer to the IMS on the Company's website www.qatarinvestmentfund.com/publications/quarterly-reports/ for a chart depicting the overall portfolio allocation by sector as at 31 December 2012.

The Investment Adviser continues to maintain its positive stance on the Qatari Banking sector, with an aggregate sector weighting (including Financial Services) of 51.1% in the portfolio, down from 56.9% at the end of Q3 2012. The banks in Qatar are expected to capitalise on the improving investment environment in the country and a number of large-scale infrastructure projects coming up in 2013. The Qatari government is continuing with its massive US$150 billion infrastructure program, ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The related project tendering and awards are expected to gather pace in 2013. The preparations for the big event have helped galvanise the construction of other long-term infrastructure projects, such as a metro and rail system, new airport, improved roads and new hotels.

In recent months, banks in Qatar have been returning to the capital markets to expand their finances, seeing growth in the domestic as well as in foreign markets. In November 2012, Qatar National Bank (QNB), the country's largest bank by assets, reported that it has successfully completed a US$1 billion bond issue in the international markets, through its Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) programme. In October 2012, Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) issued a US$750 million five-year sukuk (Islamic bond), while in late October 2012; Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIB) successfully priced a US$700 million five-year sukuk, its first international capital market bond launch. QIIB mentioned that this capital would help the bank participate in major projects in Qatar, particularly in infrastructure development.

The second largest portfolio allocation, at 23.6%, is to the Industrial sector; particularly Industries Qatar (17.6% of the total Company NAV). The weighting of the Real Estate sector increased from 8.7% at the end of Q3 2012 to 9.0% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012. The weighting of the Transportation sector stood at 4.8% of NAV at the end of Q4 2012. The allocation to the Insurance sector stood at 2.2%, while the position in the Telecom sector increased to 4.4% at the end of Q4 2012 from 4.2% of NAV at the end of the third quarter.

Regional Equity Market Overview

GCC Quarterly Equity Market Performance

Index	Q4 11	Q1 12	Q2 12	Q3 12	Q4 12
Qatar (DSM)	4.59%	0.13%	-7.60%	4.77%	-1.78%
Saudi (TASI)	5.00%	22.09%	-15.95%	3.86%	-0.56%
Dubai (DFMGI)	-5.47%	21.83%	-11.95%	8.74%	2.77%
Abu Dhabi (ADI)	-5.18%	6.27%	-4.13%	6.45%	0.98%
Kuwait (KWSE)	-0.32%	6.03%	-6.10%	3.34%	-0.81%
Oman (MSI)	1.66%	-0.09%	0.00%	-2.73%	4.09%
Bahrain (BAX)	-1.89%	0.77%	-2.23%	-3.50%	-2.00%

Source: Bloomberg

The performance of most of GCC markets was largely subdued during Q4 2012 compared to the previous quarter. The Oman market was the top performer, up 4.1% from September 2012 levels, while the Dubai market reported 2.8% gains from the last quarter. The Qatar market was down 1.8% from September 2012 levels and the Saudi market reported a marginal decline of 0.6%. In the past 12 months, the Dubai market has provided the highest returns at 19.9%, followed by the Abu Dhabi market at 9.5% and the Saudi market at 6.0%. The performance of the Qatar market lagged in the past 12 months, largely due to its strong performance in 2011 compared to the other GCC markets.

During the fourth quarter, the Qatar Exchange index was down 1.8%, following dismal performance across all the sectors except the Industrial sector. The Industrial sector was the top performer during the quarter with a gain of 4.0%. This growth was largely driven by strong performance posted by Industries Qatar (up 10.2%). The Real Estate sector was the worst performer during the quarter with a decrease of 5.5%, followed by the Consumer Goods and Service sector which declined by 5.3%. The Banking and Financial Services sector's performance also remained subdued with a 5.2% decline during the quarter.

The Investment Adviser believes that Qatar's economy is largely driven by government spending and general infrastructure spending, as the country prepares for the World Cup 2022. Despite lower investor enthusiasm witnessed during 2012, economic statements and forecasts remained optimistic. Additionally, the news of the tripling of sales of LNG to China partially offset delays in a number of expected tenders. The Investment Adviser believes that the long term growth story of Qatar remains intact, largely driven by massive hydrocarbon resources, significant government infrastructure spending, large currency reserves, and strong balance sheet of the government.

9M 2012: Corporate profitability increased by 1.8% year-on-year

Qatari companies continued to witness improving profitability during the first nine months of 2012 reporting an aggregate net profit of QAR28.53 billion (US$7.83 billion), up 1.8% compared to 9M 2011. The growth was mainly driven by the increase in profits of the Banking and Financial Services sector and an expansion in earnings within the Industrial sector. During the period, the Insurance and Real Estate sectors reported a dismal performance. During Q3 2012, Qatari companies reported a combined net profit of QAR10.16 billion (US$2.79 billion), representing a marginal rise of 0.4% for Q3 2012.

For the first 9 months of 2012, of the 41 listed companies (excluding Vodafone Qatar), 28 companies reported growth in earnings, 12 companies reported a decline in profits and the remaining one company incurred losses. Strong growth was seen in the Telecommunications sector (12.6%), followed by the Banking and Financial Services sector (9.5%).

Financial Performance of Qatar's Market Sectors for 9M 2012 (Net Profit/Loss US$ '000s)

Sectors	9M 2011	9M 2012	% Change	Q3 2011	Q3 2012	% Change
Banking & Financial	3,148,639	3,448,985	9.5%	1,086,083	1,160,663	6.9%
Insurance	192,320	175,591	-8.7%	42,326	36,723	-13.2%
Industrial	2,300,586	2,466,005	7.2%	770,872	941,325	22.1%
Services & Consumer Goods	327,864	331,878	1.2%	104,922	115,789	10.4%
Real Estate	787,957	401,490	-49.0%	455,534	100,168	-78.0%
Telecoms	590,494	664,883	12.6%	202,908	326,027	60.7%
Transportation	344,788	345,963	0.3%	116,816	109,207	-6.5%
Total	7,692,649	7,834,795	1.8%	2,779,461	2,789,902	0.4%

Source: Qatar Exchange, QIC

Banking and Financial Services Sector

The banks in Qatar continued with their strong performance during Q3 2012, driven by growth in lending underpinned by massive domestic infrastructure spending. Project tendering and awards are expected to kick-in in 2013 and should create further opportunities in the domestic Banking sector. Qatari banks reported a 9.5% growth in their 9M 2012 net profits, reaching QAR12.34 billion (US$3.39 billion), compared to QAR11.27 billion (US$3.10 billion) recorded for 9M 2011, accounting for 43.3% of the total profit of the Qatar stockmarket. The Financial sector reported a 13.0% rise in net profit to QAR215.32 million (US$59.13 million) in the first 9 months of 2012 compared to 9M 2011. All eight banks reported growth in their 9M 2012 results with increases ranging between 1.8% for Qatar Islamic Bank and 15.0% for Qatar National Bank.

For the 9M 2012, the largest bank, Qatar National Bank (QIF's largest holding), reported a 15.0% growth in net profit to QAR6.23 billion (US$1.71 billion), and accounted for 50.4% of the total Banking sector profits. Commercial Bank of Qatar's net income increased 3.8% to QAR1.57 billion (US$0.43 billion) during the same period.

Industrial Sector

The Industrial sector recorded a rise in net profit from QAR8.37 billion (US$2.30 billion) for 9M 2011 to QAR8.98 billion (US$2.47 billion) in 9M 2012, registering a growth of 7.2%. However the growth accelerated in Q3 2012 to 22.1% compared to Q3 2011. The sector accounted for 31.5% of the net profit of the market for the first nine months of 2012, the second largest following the Banking and Financial sector (44.0% contribution).

For the first 9 months of 2012 sector heavyweight Industries Qatar (IQ) reported a 6.6% increase in net profit to QAR6.66 billion (US$1.83 billion), representing not only 74.1% of the sector's net profit, but also 23.3% of the total Qatar market's net profit. The other sector heavyweight, Qatar Electricity and Water Co. (QEW) reported a 6.0% decline in net profit in the period, to QAR0.98 billion (US$0.27 billion) compared to 9M 2011, largely due to higher input costs.

Insurance Sector

The profitability of the Insurance sector was subdued in the first 9 months of 2012, with the sector's aggregate net profit decreasing 8.7% compared to 9M 2011. The five insurance companies reported a aggregate net profit of QAR0.64 billion (US$0.18 billion) for 9M 2012 compared to QAR0.70 billion (US$0.19 billion) in 9M 2011, with 2 companies posting higher net profits as compared to the previous year and 3 generating lower profits compared to the same period in 2011. The largest company in the sector in terms of net profit, Qatar Insurance Company, reported a 9.6% decline in net profit to QAR0.42 billion (US$0.11 billion) for the 9 months period and contributed almost 65% of the sector's net profit.

Services and Consumer Goods Sector

For the 9M 2012, the Services and Consumer Goods sector, which accounted for 4.2% of the total stockmarket profits, reported an aggregate 1.2% increase in net profit to QAR1.21 billion (US$0.33 billion). Of the eight listed companies which comprise the sector, five reported a higher figure; two reported lower net earnings; while losses at Qatar German Co for Medical Devices widened, compared with the same period last year.

The largest company by net profit in the sector, Qatar Fuel Company, reported a 1.3% drop in net profit to QAR0.88 billion (US$0.24 billion), for 9M 2012. Qatar Fuel Company accounted for 72.5% of the sector's net profit, lower than the 74.4% recorded for 9M 2011.

Real Estate Sector

The Real Estate sector, comprising 5.1% of the total Qatar stockmarket net profits, reported the most significant decline in net profits, with a drop of 49.0% to QAR1.46 billion (US$0.40 billion) for 9M 2012. Of the 4 listed companies in the sector, 3 reported a sharp decline in their 9M 2012 net profits. The sector heavyweight by net profit share, Barwa Real Estate Co reported a 6.5% fall in net profit to QAR0.78 billion (US$0.21 billion). United Development Company was the worst performer during the period, with net profit declining 77.1%. However, the sharp fall in net profit of United Development Company was largely due to a revaluation gain on investment properties amounting to QAR1.37 billion, reported during 9M 2011. Excluding the 2011 revaluation gain, the net profit for the Company declined 8.1% compared to the first 9 months of 2011. Ezdan Holding Group was the only company in the Real Estate sector to report higher net profit as compared to the 9M 2011.

Telecom Sector

The Telecom sector comprises two companies, Vodafone Qatar and Qatar Telecom. Vodafone Qatar was excluded from this profits comparison, since its fiscal year ends on March 31. The Telecom sector reported a 12.6% increase in net profit for the first 9 months of 2012 to QAR2.42 billion (US$0.66 billion). For Q3 2012, Qatar Telecom reported a 60.7% in net profit compared to Q3 2011, to QAR1.19 billion (US$0.33 billion).

Transportation Sector

For 9M 2012 the Transportation sector contributed 4.4% of the total Qatar market profits yet reported a mere 0.3% growth in net profit to QAR1.26 billion (US$0.35 billion), with two out of three companies reporting higher earnings. The largest company by net profit in the sector, Qatar Navigation reported a 9.1% growth in net profit to QAR0.64 billion (US$0.18 billion) for 9M 2012. During the same period, Gulf Warehousing Co's net profit increased 31.1% to QAR60.05 million (US$16.49 million).

Macroeconomic Update

The Investment Adviser has a positive stance on GCC economies, particularly Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This upbeat outlook is largely driven by a positive policy stance by GCC governments. Given the high energy prices, the Investment Adviser believes that GCC governments are expected to enjoy budget surpluses. Reports indicate the value of oil output from the GCC is expected to reach around US$1 trillion over 2010-2014, which will match the aggregate value of production over the preceding fifteen years combined. The leading oil producers are expected to generate continuing budget and current account surpluses, despite higher spending, allowing them to further strengthen already robust balance sheets. In aggregate GCC states should generate a current account surplus of more than 20% of GDP over 2013-14, to the tune of US$600 billion (according to an HSBC report). The governments are expected to continue with their expansionary budget plans, with increased spending on physical infrastructure and human resources. This in turn is likely to boost the profitability of regional companies, positively impacting investor sentiment.

Qatar Q3 2012 GDP

Nominal GDP up 5.9% in Q3 2012 versus Q3 2011

According to Qatar Statistics Authority (QSA), Qatar's nominal GDP for Q3 2012 is estimated to have grown 5.9% compared to Q3 2011, to QAR175.29 billion, while from the previous quarter nominal GDP growth was 1.3%. This growth was largely driven by non-oil and gas sector growth such as Manufacturing, Government Services and Finance, Real Estate, Insurance & Business Services sectors.

In inflation-adjusted terms Qatar's economy grew in Q3 by 3.9% compared to Q3 2011to QAR87.04 billion. The Mining and Quarrying sector (Oil and Gas sector) reported a decline of 0.8%. The slowdown in this sector was primarily attributed to the shutdown of some LNG trains for maintenance. Overall non-oil real GDP increased 7.7% to QAR49.97 billion, with the Manufacturing sector reporting a double digit growth. The Manufacturing sector reported a 13.6% growth in the gross value added (GVA), driven by higher production reported in Petrochemicals, Fertilizer, Aluminium and Gas to liquids (GTL) products. Ahead of the planned FIFA 2022 World Cup tournament, Construction sector output rose 9.4% in Q3 2012 compared to Q3 2011.

Going forward, according to the IMF, Qatar's real GDP is estimated to grow 6.3% in 2012 and 4.9% in 2013. Qatar's GDP growth in the near and long term is largely driven by government spending on infrastructure projects as the government plans to boost non-hydrocarbon sector growth and prepare the country for the 2022 FIFA World Cup tournament. Additionally, the Investment Adviser believes that project tenders and awards which are expected to kick-in in 2013 (Qatar is expected to award projects to the tune of QAR90 billion in 2013, according to MEED), coupled with the expansionary budget announced by the Qatari government, should fuel growth in the near and long term.

Inflation

CPI up 2.6% year-on-year to 112.4 in November 2012

Inflation in Qatar has reduced marginally from 2.7% year-on-year in October 2012 to 2.6% year-on-year in November 2012. As compared to CPI of the previous month, a reduction in prices was noted in several groups such as "Garments & Footwear", "Food, Beverages & Tobacco", "Furniture, Textiles & Home appliances" and "Transport & Communications". Prices in the "Rent, Fuel & Energy" group increased from 0.6% year-on-year in October 2012 to 2.0% year-on-year. The CPI excluding "Rent, Fuel and Energy" group has decreased 0.4% month-on-month, while it has increased 2.9% year-on-year to 124.5.

The IMF estimates inflation to remain moderate at an average of 2.0% in 2012 increasing to 3.0% in 2013, driven largely by government spending leading to higher consumption growth.

Population

Population up 7.1% year-on-year to 1.85 million in November 2012

The Qatar population continues to grow steadily, rising by 7.1% year-on-year and 5.0% month-on-month to 1.85 million at the end of November 2012. As compared to the previous quarter end (September 2012), Qatar's population increased marginally by 0.1%. The Investment Adviser believes that the steady rise in the population is very encouraging and should drive consumption growth in the country, improving the profitability of domestic companies further. Additionally, Qatar's population grew more than 18% in the past 4 years to the end of December 2012, according to the QSA.

Strong infrastructure pipeline and buoyant construction sector growth

According to the recent BMI (Business Monitor International) report, Qatar's construction sector growth is expected to remain buoyant, driven by large infrastructure projects for the government. According to the report, construction and energy projects to the tune of US$150 billion are in the pipeline and it is expected that these will have a positive impact on the Infrastructure sector. However, it is expected that margins of the Construction sector companies might decline due to continuously rising construction costs.

Additionally, a report published by economic journal MEED Insight, stated that Qatar will need additional power capacity of 8,216MW valued at US$10 billion by 2019 in order to meet the country's rising electricity demand. Further, the Real Estate sector in Qatar is witnessing a boom, backed by growth in real estate transactions, which almost doubled in 2012. This led to a rise in land prices near existing and planned development projects across the country. Market reports stated that a steady rise in the price of land has been witnessed, particularly in Doha and other suburbs.

The Hospitality sector in Qatar has also reported impressive growth in 2012, largely driven by the opening of 18 new hotels with a total of 2,863 rooms. The total number of hotel rooms in Qatar has increased from 11,500 in 2011 to 14,363 in 2012.

The strong infrastructure and construction pipeline is expected to favour selected Real Estate, Infrastructure companies and domestic banks in the near to long term.

Valuations

The Qatar market is trading at 2013E P/E of 8.8x, cheaper relative to its peers such as Saudi (9.7x) and Kuwait (9.6x). The attractive valuation of the Qatar market is well supported by significant dividend payouts by Qatari companies, with a 2012E dividend yield at 5.2%. The Investment Adviser believes that Qatar's long term growth is underpinned by its strong infrastructure pipeline, increasing government spending, supportive demographics and improving spending trends.

		P/E (x)			P/B (x)	Div Yield (%)
Index	Market Cap (US$ Mn)	12E	13E	14E	12E	12E
QE Index	96,928	10.0x	8.8x	7.3x	1.5x	5.2%
Abu Dhabi	69,383	7.9x	7.2x	6.9x	1.0x	5.4%
Bahrain	15,245	7.7x	6.6x	6.6x	NM	7.5%
Dubai	31,702	9.4x	8.2x	6.7x	0.7x	3.9%
Kuwait	102,443	11.4x	9.6x	NA	1.2x	2.8%
Oman	15,446	9.1x	8.3x	7.6x	1.4x	4.7%
Saudi Arabia	373,321	11.1x	9.7x	8.9x	1.6x	4.2%

Source: Bloomberg, DB Report

Outlook

The Investment Adviser believes that Qatar's near to long term growth prospects remain compelling largely driven by a strong infrastructure pipeline of US$150 billion as the country prepares for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, coupled with record budget spending plans during FY13, supportive demographics and improving spending trends. The Qatar market is expected to outperform in the near term, due to its massive hydrocarbon resources, large currency reserves, and the strong balance sheet of the government.

The heavy spending by the government on large scale infrastructure projects is expected to drive lending growth in the country and is a reason the Investment Adviser favours selected domestic banks. Further, the Investment Adviser likes the Consumer and Retail sector companies, largely supported by favourable demographics and improving spending trends highlighting the exciting demand story in the country.

 

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