Preliminary Interim Results
JP Morgan Flem Chinese Inv Tst PLC
24 May 2002
LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT
JPMORGAN FLEMING CHINESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF INTERIM RESULTS
The Directors of JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc yesterday
announced the Company's results for the six months ended 31st March 2002.
The Company's total return on diluted net assets for the six months to 31st
March 2002 was +37.8%. The Company's benchmark, the MSCI Golden Dragon Index (in
sterling terms), produced a total return of +38.3% and the total return to
shareholders (change in share price with net dividend (if any) reinvested) for
the period was +57.5%.
Market Performance
Hong Kong
The Hang Seng was trapped in a tight trading range between 10,000 and 12,000
throughout the review period. Aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Federal
Reserve following September's terrorist attacks helped boost investor confidence
early in the period, and the market soon reached the 12,000 level as it began to
price in a US economic rebound in the second half of 2002. However, this
optimism soon dissipated as Hong Kong continued to show few signs of emerging
from a sharp recession despite the rate cut stimulus. Unemployment rose to an
historic high, while hopes of a recovery in the residential property market
remained very fragile given the abundant supply of residential apartments. These
concerns helped pull the Hong Kong stock market back towards the bottom of its
range in January and February.
The poor performance of China's two large-cap wireless telecom operators listed
in Hong Kong, China Mobile and China Unicom, also constrained the market's
performance as consistently negative news flow (including competition fears and
regulatory concerns) pulled both of them sharply lower over the period. Because
of their large weighting in the Hang Seng (together, the two phone companies
account for close to 18% of the index), their decline had a significant impact
on the market as a whole. However, the performance of export-related stocks was
good, on the expectation that the US economic recovery would be quick and
strong. Export-oriented companies, such as Li & Fung and Johnson Electric, rose
particularly strongly from their post-11th September lows, gaining more than 50%
each over the period.
China
Chinese domestic A-shares fell slightly over the period, constrained by rumours
that the government had produced a timetable for the disposal of state-owned
shares. These rumours had been circulating in the market for sometime, but there
had not been any official announcement to confirm or deny them. The eventual
disposal of these shares will generate a huge supply overhang in the domestic
A-share market, but the disposal is nevertheless essential for the government as
it needs the money to fund China's growing social security system and to pay
unemployed workers. At the time of writing, the timing of these disposals is
still undecided and most likely will not be executed this year. Meanwhile,
B-shares fell sharply on concerns that domestic money may be allowed to be
invested in the Hong Kong stock market. Investors expect liquidity to be drained
from B shares to Hong Kong-listed H-shares if the scheme is approved, as H
shares are cheaper than B shares. In contrast, Chinese H-shares were up strongly
on the back of strong outperformance from commodity stocks, such as oils and
petrochemicals. Oil prices have stayed quite stable after the sharp fall
immediately following the 11th September terrorist attacks. However, with
Middle-East tensions escalating, the oil price rose back to pre-11th September
levels, which helped boost oil-related stocks. Petrochemical stocks also
benefited from the expected recovery in demand for their products as the global
economy recovers.
Taiwan
The Taiwan market was the best performing market in the Greater China region by
a big margin during the review period. Taiwan's outperformance was the result of
rising confidence in the US economic recovery, as the island's technology and
export-heavy stock market will be a major beneficiary of a pick up in US demand.
In particular, investors were encouraged by data that showed that inventories of
IT-related products were beginning to be rebuilt after months of sharp declines.
Most important of all, the trend towards outsourcing continued, with Japanese
companies and US companies speeding up their outsourcing efforts after
September's terrorist attacks in order to remain competitive.
Domestic economic statistics also showed an improvement after the sharp slowdown
experienced in the first half of 2001. Foreign investors were particularly
active in the market on expectation of a US recovery throughout the period.
Local investors started to become more confident of the outlook and participate
in the buying in December 2001 after the ruling Democratic Progressive Party
gained the majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan election.
Asset Allocation
During the period, we added to positions in Taiwan at the expense of Hong Kong
and Chinese stocks. Taiwan's electronic sector started to see strong orders
growth from European and US customers, while the end of tech de-stocking in the
US was also very positive. Meanwhile, Taiwanese manufacturers continued to
benefit from the global out-sourcing trend, thanks to their low cost
manufacturing bases,strong research and development capabilities and easy access
to cheap land and labour resources from China. This trend accelerated after 11th
September as corporations intensified their cost cutting efforts in the face of
economic weakness. In Hong Kong, we currently prefer exporters to
domestic-oriented stocks, as exporters are more geared towards the US economic
recovery. Given the weakness of the Hong Kong economy, Hong Kong domestic plays
like property and banks are likely to remain laggards.
Outlook
The outlook for the Hong Kong/China market is improving. Firstly, the Hong Kong
economy is bottoming and activity appears to be picking up as the recovery in
the US economy benefits external trade. Secondly, Chinese economic growth, at
7.6% in the first quarter, was higher than expected. Domestic consumption
remains stable while external trade is picking up strongly. Finally, the asset
allocation shift away from Hong Kong/China by global investors should now have
come to an end, giving scope for a rebound in Hong Kong relative to other
regional markets. The outlook for Taiwan remains tied to the fate of the US.
Given the strong performance of tech stocks in Taiwan over the last six months,
it is likely that they will enter into a period of consolidation before making
further gains. However, the focus of the market has now shifted to financial
stocks, as there are signs that the restructuring of Taiwan's banking industry
is speeding up. We remain sceptical of the quality of Taiwanese banking stocks,
but will monitor the situation closely.
Investment Strategy
We have already seen some signs of economic recovery in the US in the first
quarter of 2002. Exporters in the greater China region have outperformed
significantly on the back of this recovery. We expect exporters to continue to
do well into the second half of 2002. However, the relative out-performance of
exporters over domestic plays is likely to be smaller going forward, especially
if the Hong Kong economy begins to recover. We intend to increase our exposure
to domestic plays in Hong Kong, such as property developers and banks, when we
are more confident that a domestic recovery is taking place.
In Taiwan, we expect electronics shares to continue to do well on the back of a
strong order book recovery. In particular, we are finding good opportunities
among personal computer makers, hand-set companies and foundries. We firmly
believe that we will continue to add value by picking the winners in the Taiwan
market.
J. P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management (UK) Limited - Secretary
24th May 2002
For further information, please contact:
Hilary Lowe
J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management (UK) Limited................020 7742 6000
JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc
Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2002
Statement of Total Return (Unaudited)
Six months to 31st March 2002 Six months to 31st March 2001 Year to 30th September 2001
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Realised gains/
(losses) on
investments - 2,785 2,785 - (2,510) (2,510) - (5,040) (5,040)
Net change in
unrealised
appreciation - 8,251 8,251 - (3,872) (3,872) - (14,909) (14,909)
Net (losses)/gains
on currency -
transactions (63) (63) - 15 15 - (15) (15)
Other capital - - - (8) (8) (21) (21)
charges
Franked dividends - - - 87 - 87 134 - 134
Unfranked dividends 187 - 187 118 - 118 487 - 487
Scrip dividends - - - 5 - 5 103 103
Deposit interest 4 - 4 15 - 15 24 - 24
Stocklending fees 16 - 16 - - - - - -
_______ ________ _______ ______ _______ ________ _______ _______ _______
Gross return 207 10,973 11,180 225 (6,375) (6,150) 748 (19,985) (19,237)
Management fee (203) - (203) (268) - (268) (510) - (510)
Other
administrative
expenses (146) - (146) (114) - (114) (274) - (274)
Interest payable (12) - (12) (24) - (24) (58) - (58)
_______ _______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______
Return before (154) 10,973 10,819 (181) (6,375) (6,556) (94) (19,985) (20,079)
taxation
Taxation (4) - (4) 7 - 7 (46) - (46)
______ _______ _______ ______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______
Return attributable
to ordinary
shareholders (158) 10,973 10,815 (174) (6,375) (6,549) (140) (19,985) (20,125)
===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Return per ordinary (0.27)p 18.87p 18.60p (0.30)p (10.99)p (11.29)p (0.24)p (34.13)p (34.37)p
share
Dividend (s) per Nil Nil Nil
ordinary share
JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc
Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2002
BALANCE SHEET 31st March 31stMarch 31 September
2002 2001 2001
£'000 £'000 £'000
Investments at valuation 40,001 42,829 28,075
Net current (liabilities) / assets (585) (382) 529
______ _______ _______
Total net assets 39,416 42,447 28,604
===== ===== =====
Net asset value per ordinary share 67.8p 72.4p 49.2p
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
2002 2001 2001
£'000 £'000 £'000
Net cash outflow from operating activities (62) (245) (250)
Net cash outflow from returns on investments and servicing (12) (24) (58)
of finance
Total tax recovered 10 59 59
Net cash (outflow)/inflow from capital expenditure and (844) 1,260 2,600
financial investment
Net cash inflow from financing 916 (2,565) (2,832)
_______ ______ ______
Increase /(Decrease) for the period 8 (1,515) (481)
===== ==== ====
The above financial information does not constitute statutory accounts as
defined in Section 240 of the Companies Act 1985. Statutory accounts for the
year ended 30th September 2001 have been delivered to the Registrar of
Companies.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange