Interim Results
JPMorgan Fleming Japanese IT PLC
16 May 2005
JPMORGAN FLEMING JAPANESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT
UNAUDITED INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31ST MARCH 2005
The Board today release the unaudited interim results of the Company for the six
months to 31st March 2005.
The following are comments from the Chairman:
Market Review
For the six-month period under review the TOPIX benchmark rose 7.3% in yen. This
translates into a 6.5% gain when expressed in pounds sterling. The rise in the
market over the autumn was a welcome change from the torpor of last summer, when
investors' attitudes towards Japan were more governed more by their worries
about the US economy than by the improving earnings reported by many Japanese
companies. Fortunately, as data from China, Asia and the USA started to show
that fears of an imminent US recession and global slowdown were probably
overblown, investors in Japan started to buy back into some of the stocks which
had been most oversold.
Towards the end of 2004, the view that the economic recovery was still intact
was further strengthened by strong interim results from many Japanese companies.
Additionally, earnings revisions from regional banks and real estate companies
reinforced investors' views on the prospect of reflation in Japan. At the same
time, the strength of the yen against the US dollar led analysts to downgrade
their earnings expectations for exporters. The combination of these two trends
meant that many of the best performers in the Japanese stock market between
October and March were those where profits are insulated from currency
movements, and where the underlying business was perceived to benefit from a
possible end to deflation.
Sharp rises in commodities prices were also a consistent theme over the six
months. Whilst their effect on global economic growth rates has become a cause
of worry in recent months, higher resources prices have certainly been positive
for the companies which either own or process them. Japan has very few companies
which actually own natural resources, but the shares of many of downstream
processing companies such as Nippon Oil and Nippon Mining and Sumitomo Metal
Mining (non-ferrous metals), benefited from the gains in the price of oil,
copper and nickel.
Manufacturing companies, especially those with a large percentage of sales
outside Japan, produced mixed results. Technology is a good example of the
polarisation of trends within the same sector. In areas where Japanese companies
have a high world market share in growing segments, such as in motors for use in
hard disk drives, share prices were very strong. As for products such as memory
chips and capacitors, where selling prices fell rapidly because of over-supply
and higher inventories, share prices fell.
Performance Commentary
The Company's NAV (in pounds sterling terms) rose 8.8% over the period, compared
with a 6.5% gain returned by the TOPIX benchmark index. As a result of a
widening of the discount to NAV, the share price rose 5.8%.
Performance in the first half was helped by several factors. An increased
weighting in smaller and mid-sized companies whose businesses are skewed towards
the domestic economy was a major help. These included real estate investment
businesses and on-line brokers.
In general the Trust benefited from having raised its weighting in the service
sector where many of the companies tend to be recently listed, have low foreign
shareholdings, are exposed to structural growth areas of the Japanese economy,
have little analyst coverage and almost no direct exposure to customers in Asia
and the USA.
Performance over the period was also helped by remaining underweight in large
telecommunications stocks, where saturation of mobile telephone diffusion is
leading to pressure for carriers to cut tariffs. Barring an about-face in
management policy our zero-weighting investment stance on these companies is
likely to remain unchanged.
Outlook
The rapid year-on-year economic growth rates seen in the year to March 2004 have
now levelled out. However, Japanese companies are poised to report earnings for
the March 2005 fiscal year which will probably show operating profit increases
of 15%-20%. This is above original consensus numbers. Furthermore, in contrast
to initial forecasts of a decline in earnings for the year to March 2006, many
analysts are already conceding that continued earnings growth of around 10% is a
more likely scenario.
Based on trends at the company level, Japanese corporate earnings still look
encouraging. Auto manufacturers are benefiting from the weakness at GM and Ford,
making further market share (and profit) gains in the USA. Contrary to
predictions made last year, Chinese GDP growth also remains robust, which means
that demand for Japanese steel, capital goods and construction equipment has
held up well.
In the service sector, some banks and financial institutions are growing profits
and regional banks are lending more to both small companies and individuals.
Since the banks concerned have also cut costs, the resultant bounce in profits
has been impressive. Newer companies which benefit from structural change in
Japan are also doing well and the Trust's portfolio includes of a considerable
number of names in this area, such as companies which organise weddings and
funerals, car park operators, car auction companies and labour outsourcing
agencies.
The investment managers' view is that whilst quarterly growth rates will vary
over the longer term, China and Asia will continue to build infrastructure and
manufacturing capacity. This will see them remain customers of a whole range of
products where the Japanese still have a high market share, such as high quality
steel, capital goods and robots.
The situation in the US looks less healthy. Some of Japan's largest companies,
for example Honda and Canon, make significant proportions of their overall
profits from selling consumer products in the USA, and would suffer if demand
fell. They are achieving market share gains which would dilute the effect of an
economic slowdown, but overall would not be immune from a weaker US economy.
However, the fact that Japan's trade with China and Asia now exceeds by value
that with the USA, means that Japanese GDP is now less influenced by the USA
than was the case in previous economic cycles.
Overall, the investment managers' view is one of cautious optimism. Japanese
companies have restructured, are buying back shares and raising dividends. Where
they are manufacturers, they are in many cases increasing their world market
share, and where they are in the service sector they are enjoying the effects of
structural change in Japan. It is important to remain aware of the effect of any
potential slowdown in China and the USA, but with a projected price to earnings
ratio for the Japanese market of just 15 times (excluding financials), the
Japanese stock market is cheaper than at any time in the past twenty or so
years.
Board
This Half Yearly Report is my first as Chairman of the Company. My predecessor,
David Ritchie, retired on 17th December 2004 after more than 20 years as a
Director of the Company, the last six of which were as Chairman. The Board would
like to record its gratitude to David for his immense contribution to the
success of the Company over this period.
Jeremy Paulson-Ellis
Chairman 16th May 2005
The JPMorganFleming Japanese Investment Trust plc
Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2005
Statement of Total Return (Unaudited)
Six months to 31 March 2005 Six months to 31 March 2004 Year to 30 September 2004
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
£'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Realised gains/(losses)
on investments - 9,067 9,067 - (12,511) (12,511) - (19,442) (19,442)
Unrealised gains/
(losses) on investments - 24,199 24,199 - 61,107 61,107 - (663) (663)
Realised currency
losses on cash and
short-term
deposits - (281) (281) - (2,152) (2,152) - (1,045) (1,045)
Realised loss on
currency hedges - - - - - - - (94) (94)
Unrealised currency
gains on Yen loans - 794 794 - 1,892 1,892 - 4,486 4,486
Unrealised loss on
currency hedge - (1) (1) - - - - - -
Other capital items - (1) (1) - (22) (22) - 28 28
Overseas dividends 2,333 - 2,333 2,496 - 2,496 4,509 - 4,509
Stock lending fees 529 - 529 278 - 278 758 - 758
Deposit interest 3 - 3 2 - 2 5 - 5
_______ ________ _______ ______ _______ ________ _______ _______ _______
Gross return/(loss) 2,865 33,777 36,642 2,776 48,314 51,090 5,272 (16,730) (11,458)
Management fee (281) (1,124) (1,405) (279) (1,118) (1,397) (570) (2,279) (2,849)
Other administrative
expenses (244) - (244) (275) - (275) (469) - (469)
Interest payable (34) (136) (170) (42) (167) (209) (81) (322) (403)
_______ _______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______
Return/(loss) before
taxation 2,306 32,517 34,823 2,180 47,029 49,209 4,152 (19,331) (15,179)
Taxation (163) - (163) (559) 382 (177) (318) - (318)
______ _______ _______ ______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______
Available for ordinary
shareholders 2,143 32,517 34,660 1,621 47,411 49,032 3,834 (19,331) (15,497)
Return/(loss) per
ordinary share 1.15p 17.50p 18.65p 0.87p 25.52p 26.39p 2.06p (10.40)p (8.34)p
The JPMorganFleming Japanese Investment Trust plc
Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2005
BALANCE SHEET 31 March 31 March 30 Sept
2005 2004 2004
£'000 £'000 £'000
Investments at valuation 483,057 528,176 419,710
Net current liabilities (55,315) (39,186) (26,628)
Creditors (amounts falling due after more than one year) - (31,380) -
_______ _______ _______
Total net assets 427,742 457,610 393,082
======= ======= =======
Net asset value per ordinary share 230.2p 246.3p 211.6p
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
2005 2004 2004
£'000 £'000 £'000
Net cash inflow from operating activities 527 106 1,517
Net cash (outflow)/inflow from returns on investments and
servicing of finance (112) (262) 956
Net cash inflow/(outflow) from capital expenditure and
financial investment 4,377 (2,768) (1,988)
_______ _______ ______
Increase/(decrease) in cash for the period 4,792 (2,924) 485
======= ======= ======
The above financial information does not constitute statutory accounts as
defined in Section 240 of the Companies Act 1985. The comparative financial
information is based on the statutory accounts for the year ended 30th September
2004. These accounts, upon which the auditors issued an unqualified opinion,
have been delivered to the Registrar of Companies.
JPMORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT (UK) LIMITED
16th May 2005
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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