New Year Outlook and Energy Security Commentary

Lansdowne Oil & Gas plc

08 January 2024

 

8 January 2024

Lansdowne Oil & Gas plc

("Lansdowne" or the "Company")

New Year Outlook and

Comments on Energy Security in Ireland to 2030 publication

With the completion of the recent equity placing following the Company's General Meeting on 29 December 2023, the Company is now focused upon progressing its Energy Charter Treaty claim against Ireland, following the refusal to award a Lease Undertaking for the Barryroe oil and gas field ("Barryroe").

On 14 November 2023 the Irish Government finally published its strategy for Ireland's Energy Security, and having reviewed this Lansdowne provides the following comments:

The voluminous documentation produced identifies numerous actions to be taken and the setting up of additional committees, all to be overseen by a new Energy Security Group (ESG).

Some of the key findings in the report are:

·    Concern about gas supply leading to the need recognized for a Strategic Gas Emergency Reserve.

·    Also concern regarding oil supply with need to strengthen National Oil Reserves Agency (NORA).

·    Actions to be taken on both will add further cost burden to consumers.

Lansdowne believes that an alternative pathway, allowing the development of the Barryroe oil and gas field, would deliver greater energy security at lower cost and with lower associated emissions.

Lansdowne considered that the report highlights the following key risks:

Supply-side risks:

·    As one of the most energy import dependent countries in the EU with limited diversity of supply, Ireland is exposed to this risk. In 2022, 82% of Ireland's energy needs came from imports. 48% of energy used in 2022 was from imported oil and nearly 31% from natural gas. 74% of Ireland's natural gas came from imports through two interconnectors from the UK.

·    A disruption of gas supplies from the UK, for whatever reason, would have a significant impact on Ireland's economic and social wellbeing.

Demand side risks:

·    The dependence of the electricity system on natural gas is expected to increase in the short to medium-term, particularly at times of very low wind. In addition, the peak day demand for natural gas is expected to increase. This means the electricity system will continue to rely on natural gas as a fuel source as it transitions to a majority-renewables system and phases out natural gas in the medium term.

Introduction of a Strategic Gas Emergency Reserve:

·    It is anticipated that a floating reserve (FSRU) will best meet the criteria set by the Government.

·    The costs of this state-owned enterprise will be paid for by an additional levy on the consumer, as applies for NORA (National Oil Reserves Agency)

The Oil Sector

·    Ireland relies heavily on imports to meet its oil requirements as it does not produce crude oil and is a net importer of refined products.

Given all of the above, it is extraordinary that Eamon Ryan Minister for Environment, Climate and Communications and Minister for Transport blocked the progress of the Barryroe oil and gas field, that contains abundant supplies of both fuels, especially given the application was also noted as being satisfactory from a technical standpoint.

The development of Barryroe would ensure secure indigenous supplies of both oil and gas, with lower emissions/carbon footprint, compared with imports. A study commissioned by Europa Oil and Gas (Holdings) plc and announced on 7^th March 2023, found that the Emission Intensity (EI) from the indigenous Corrib Field at 5 kgCO2e/boe is 14% of the EI of imported gas from the UK and 3.5% of the EI of LNG imported from the US.

Offshore Wind

Minister Ryan is placing all his faith in developing offshore wind at scale and at pace. As recognised in the McCarthy Report on the Security of Electricity Supply, "The ambition to decarbonise has not been matched by sufficient management of the project delivery risks, with evidence of an underestimation of risk in the sector."

A recent article on Offshore Wind in the Guardian newspaper (27 October 2023) commented on the headwinds facing the industry. Siemens Energy had encountered problems with the turbines it manufactures and was in rescue talks with the German Government to secure €15 billion to shore up its balance sheet.

Vatenfall AB had stopped work on a windfarm project off the coast of Norfolk as the recent 40% rise in costs meant it was no longer profitable.

The Danish windfarm giant Ørsted A/S announced a near £2 billion asset write-down due to delays in windfarm projects offshore the U.S.

On 4^th January 2024 Equinor ASA and BP Plc announced the termination of the Offshore Wind Renewable Energy Certificate (OREC) Agreement for the Empire 2 project offshore the U.S.A. recognising that "commercial conditions driven by inflation, interest rates and supply chain disruptions that prevented Empire Wind 2's existing OREC agreement from being viable."

Conclusion:

It is the Company's view that the long delayed report on Ireland's Energy Security has taken a blinkered approach, driven entirely by environmental dogma, and will ensure that Ireland's energy insecurity will persist to 2030 and beyond and that the Irish consumer, already paying some of the highest electricity prices in Europe, will face additional cost burden.  Energy insecurity of this nature will be magnified many times over in the event that global disruptions occur thus also multiplying the costs to the Irish consumer.  Domestic energy supply can help to alleviate this multiplier effect.

There is an obvious alternative pathway, to allow the development of already discovered oil and gas resources in the Barryroe field, delivering greater security at lower cost and with lower associated emissions.  There is no reliable forecast which shows an elimination of oil and gas imports to Ireland.  Domestic oil and gas can provide energy security and be provided at a much lower emissions cost than imported oil and gas.

The Company remains willing to engage in any worthwhile or pragmatic discussion with the Irish Government, however all attempts to engage in such conversations at an appropriate level have been ignored by the Irish government.  Without an ability to engage in a respectful and frank conversation the Company has no alternative other than to pursue its arbitration efforts under the Energy Charter Treaty.

For further information please contact:

Lansdowne Oil & Gas plc	[phone]
Steve Boldy
SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP	[phone]
Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker
Stuart Gledhill
Richard Hail
Tavira Financial Limited	[phone]
Joint Broker
Oliver Stansfield

Notes to editors:

About Lansdowne

Lansdowne Oil & Gas (LOGP.LN) is an oil and gas exploration and appraisal company focused on the North Celtic Sea and quoted on the AIM market and head quartered in Dublin.

In May 2023 the application for a Lease Undertaking for the Barryroe Field, in which Lansdowne held a 20% interest, was refused by the Irish Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications.

In June 2023 Lansdowne announced the commencement of action under the Arbitration Process of the Energy Charter Treaty.

Since 20 September 2023, Lansdowne has been designated a "Cash-Shell" under AIM Rule 15.

For more information on Lansdowne, please refer to www.lansdowneoilandgas.com.

 

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