Monthly Briefing Dec 2002

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 15 January 2003 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC As at 31st December 2002 Fund Objective To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Net Asset Value GBP 93.34 Share Price GBP 95.00 Discount (Premium) 1.8% Market Capitalisation GBP 19.0mn Source: Bloomberg; NAV - LTL Performance (based in GBP) Dec Nov Oct YTD Since Launch NAV -1.2% +0.4% -1.7% -10.9% -6.7% Share Price +1.6% +0.5% +4.5% -19.1% -5.0% Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Top 10 Holdings % NAV US Gov Treasury 6.25% 15.6 Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 12.9 Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 11.6 US Gov Treasury IL 3.875% 9.4 HBOS 6.125% Non Cum 7.4 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 7.3 UK Treasury 2.5% 5.7 Glenmorangie plc A&B 5.6 Cadbury Schweppes 5.5 HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 5.4 Industry Breakdown % NAV Bonds 38.0 Preference Shares 12.8 Media 8.1 Banks & Investment Co. 7.0 Leisure & Entertainment 7.5 Food & Beverage 16.4 Investment Fund 24.5 Cash & Equivalent (14.3) Total 100.0 Geographical Breakdown % NAV Bonds 38.0 UK 13.0 US 25.0 Preference 12.8 Shares 39.0 Equities UK 28.6 US 4.8 Japan 3.4 Europe 2.2 24.5 Funds LT Japan 12.9 LT Global Media 11.6 (14.3) Cash & Equivalent Total 100.0 Currency Exposure % NAV USD 55.0 JPY (0.4) EUR 2.2 GBP 43.2 Total 100.0 Fund Manager's Comments The Company's Net Asset Value lost 1.2% in December bringing the total loss in NAV for the calendar year to 9.6%. We executed no trades last month. We have in the past described how future returns from equities are likely to be dominated in the long term by the contribution from income (dividends) rather than capital gain. This may seem unusual when looking back over the 1980's and 1990's when returns from capital gains made the most contribution in every year but four in the UK and six in the US. It simply reverts to the experience of investors in the decades before then. Jeremy Seigel's book 'Stocks for the Long Run' catalogued the breakdown of returns from capital gains and dividends in the US market and concluded that the latter contributed 82% to nominal returns over the period from 1802-1992. Going back even further the value of assets was measured by their income potential. The wealth of key characters in Jane Austen's time was measured in terms of income but never capital. In 'Pride & Prejudice' Mr Darcy was worth £10,000 (per annum). In light of this assumption it is worth analyzing the income generating potential of your Company. So far no dividends have been paid yet it has been in existence for almost two years. The Company invests in securities that earn dividends or interest. What has happened to it? The Company does indeed earn prodigious amounts of income. In the period to March 2002, annualised income was £730,000 (the Company's first financial period was approximately 141/2 months). Annualising the first 6 months of this year to March 2003 this figure has risen to £744,000, a rise of 2%. However the Company incurs expenses that need to be deducted before its true income generating potential can be properly assessed. Total annualised ongoing expenses to March 2002 were £506,000 (this included a performance fee and there were, in on top of that, £217,000 of one-off start-up expenses) and annualizing the first 6 months of 2003 were £416,000. These include, but are not exclusively, investment manager's, director's, administrator's, auditor's and lawyer's fees and interest charges. There could be a tax expense but as we explained in August's monthly we intend to minimize the tax the Company pays. As a result the difference between these figures is the best indicator of the income generating potential of the Company. For March 2003, annualising the first 6 months, this should be approximately £328,000, an earnings yield on starting capital of 1.6%. All the Company's investments have earned income except the investments in the two Lindsell Train Funds and Lindsell Train Limited. Lindsell Train should pay its first dividend in 2003. However, income earned within the Lindsell Train Funds is set off against running expenses, making it unlikely that they pay dividends. On the other hand, the investment management fee rebate from the Funds helps to reduce the overall expenses of the investment trust. The Directors stated in the 2002 annual report that their policy 'is to retain as much profit as is permissible under investment trust regulations in their belief that this policy is likely to be most tax efficient for the majority of investors in the Company'. In the period to March 2002, the Company's net income was less than that allowable for retention due to the high level of costs. As a result, the Company paid no dividend. This year, working on the basis of revenues of £744,000, 15% or £112,000 could be retained leaving £216,000 to be paid as a dividend, giving a dividend yield on starting capital of 1.1%. A 40% taxpayer would be taxed an extra 38% generating a net yield for him of 0.7%. This compares with current net yields from the 2.5% Consolidated loan stock of 2.8%. It will be important for the success of the Company for the net income to rise in the future so that the yield on starting capital exceeds the Consol yield, net of higher rate tax. This can obviously come about in two ways, either through an increase in income or through a reduction in expenses. Although we can expect no dividend growth from our 50% invested in fixed income, of the 11 equity holdings, all have increased their dividends except Reuters, which cut it by one third last year, and Dow Jones, which has kept it unchanged. Annual equity dividends (not including preferred stocks) are likely to be approximately £280,000 in the year to March 2003 versus £162,000 last year, which is partly a reflection of increased exposure to equities as well as the rise in overall dividends. Increasing dividends in today's environment is not easy but an attribute we value highly from our investments. Reduction in expenses is only partly under our direct control, in that any investment success could be rewarded with a higher share price that would trigger higher ongoing fees as well as a possible performance fee. However, where it is under our control we hope for reductions. For instance, we expect short term interest rates to decline in due course and cannot foresee the repetition of some one off expenses incurred this year and last. Our only concern is an increase in costs associated with increased regulation of the investment trust industry, but these are, as yet, indefinable. All indications suggest that net income generation and dividend performance in 2003 should be better than 2002. To continue this trend we need to identify those assets with the strongest long-term dividend growth potential. The fact that we still own 50% in fixed interest shows how cautious we are at the moment about assuming robust dividend growth anywhere. Fund Manager Launch Date Denominated Currency Nick Train 22 January 2001 GBP Year End Dividend Benchmark 31st March Ex-date: June The annual average yield on Payment: August the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. The Board Management Fees Registered Address Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% p.a. Lindsell Train Investment Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual Trust Donald Adamson increase in the share price, plus 77A High Street Michael Lindsell dividend, Brentwood above the gross annual yield of ESSEX DM14 4RR the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Sedol No Bloomberg 3001710 LTI LN Disclaimer The contents in this document is solely for information purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or subscribe any securities or funds in any jurisdiction in which such distribution is not authorised. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice and cannot be relied upon in making any investment decision. Applications to invest in some of the funds must only be made on the basis of offer documents which may only be available for private circulation. The information contained in this document is published in good faith and neither Lindsell Train Limited nor any other person so connected assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information as provided. No representation is made or assurance given that any statements made, views, projections or forecasts are correct or that objectives will be achieved. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in the Fund. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Foreign exchange rates may cause the value of investments to go up or down. Investments may be subject to higher volatility in certain funds and the investment value may fall suddenly and substantially. Lindsell Train Limited 35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499 info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com Lindsell Train Limited is regulated by the FSA. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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