Monthly Briefing May 2002

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 13 June 2002 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC As at 31st May 2002 Fund Objective To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Share Price GBP 112.50 Net Asset Value GBP 103.89 Discount (Premium) (8.3%) Market Capitalisation GBP 22.5mn Source: Bloomberg NAV - LT & Bloomberg Performance (based in GBP) May Apr Mar 1 Year Since Launch NAV +0.5 -0.8 -0.3 +0.7 +3.9 Share Price -2.6 -4.9 +1.7 -5.5 +12.5 2.5% Consol Loan Stock +5.1 Annual Average Yield Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Top 10 Holdings % NAV US Gov Treasury 6.25% 13.1 Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 12.6 Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 12.1 US Gov Treasury IL 3.875% 7.6 HBOS 6.125% Non Cum 6.5 Cadbury Schweppes 5.8 Barr (AG) 5.3 Dow Jones & Co 5.2 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 5.1 UK Treasury 2.5% 4.5 Industry Breakdown % NAV Bonds 33.2 Preference Shares 10.5 Media 11.2 Banks & Investment Co. 7.3 Leisure & Tourism 8.2 Food & Beverage 16.2 Investment Fund 24.7 Cash & Equivalent (11.2) Total 100.0 Geographical Breakdown % NAV Bonds 33.2 UK 12.5 US 20.7 Preference Shares 10.5 Equities 42.8 UK 30.4 US 5.9 Japan 4.0 Europe 2.6 Funds 24.7 LT Japan 12.6 LT Global Media 12.1 Cash & Equivalent (11.2) Total 100.0 Currency Exposure % NAV USD 51.4 JPY (0.3) EUR 2.6 GBP 46.3 Total 100.0 Fund Manager's Comments We altered the portfolio very little during May, maintaining the broadly defensive disposition of assets. There was one transaction though, insignificant when considered alone, that illustrates our current attitude to capital markets. One of the Trust's HBOS preference shares, currently offering a net dividend yield of 6.5%, went ex-dividend at the start of the month. Not surprisingly the price of the stock fell by the amount of the dividend, or 3.25%. We immediately bought additional shares in the same issue to the exact monetary value of the dividend we will receive. In this way, when the stock goes ex its next dividend, in six months, we will earn an annualised return of 6.5% on a position 3.25% bigger than last time, a payment that, in turn, we intend to reinvest in the same way, unless a better idea presents. Effectively, we are compounding the return for this portion of the portfolio at 6.5%. From shareholders' perspective we believe this is attractive. HBOS is a sound issuer and the return is way in excess of inflation, our benchmark and the cost of borrowing. This last measure is especially relevant, because the 10.5% we hold in HBOS preference shares matches, give or take, the Trust's gearing. We hope to benefit from the positive cost of carry on the stocks and at some stage to enjoy a capital gain, if other investors come to appreciate these assets, which would generate an even more satisfactory annualised total return. On the other hand, 6.5% is far from a double-digit reward and it might be argued that we have allocated too much capital to an intrinsically low returning asset. We acknowledge the point, or more particularly, recognise a risk that we will fail to build our exposure to riskier assets, namely stocks, in a timely fashion. As this note is written most world equity markets, with the exception of Japan, have fallen year-to-date, several by ten per cent or more, including the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg European 500. It is likely that the Trusts' NAV will be little changed over the same period, although it will be down. To this extent, then, we believe the portfolio structure has proven appropriate to immediate circumstances, if not ideal. Our challenge will be to withdraw from the security of our fixed interest assets, probably at a time when to do so will seem the height of imprudence. This is a nettle already grasped, because we have been prepared to add to existing equity positions into recent weakness, including more Reuters and Nintendo, although this has not changed the shape of the whole. Moreover, we have a list of 7 companies in which we would like to build positions, commencing at prices not so far from those prevailing. In the interim, though, we are unwilling to quit our bonds. We still expect investors to pay higher prices for the certainty of real return offered by government bonds. This conviction is reinforced by the satisfactory performance of the inflation-linked US government bonds in the Trust. The Dollar capital value of the Trust's TIP, 7.5% of gross assets, has risen 4.7% this year to a new high for the stock, excepting a brief spike last September. This has brought the yield to maturity down to 3.2% per annum real, from over 4.3% in the first quarter of 2000. This fall in the required real yield, reflects, in our view, increasing concerns about the security of long-term returns from competing assets, most notably stocks, with NASDAQ falling by 70% over the same period. We believe real yields on the TIP can fall further, promising further gains in value, with the 1.5% registered on the longest UK index-linked gilt a distant objective. Meantime, we expect investors to wake eventually to the reality of non-existent pricing power for US corporations and to bid up the price of conventional bonds. John Lonski, the chief economist at Moody's Investor Service noted recently 'We're seeing pricing pressures of a severity that we have never seen before.' Certainly, the prices of total finished goods in the US have fallen by 2.0% over the past 12 months, while prices for core consumer goods have dropped 1.0%. These are the sharpest declines since the 1960s, at a time when the economy is supposed to be emerging from recession and when at a comparable stage of recovery, in 1991, consumer prices were rising at 3.9% annualised. We still expect to be offered the opportunity to reduce our US bond holdings at yields of 4%. We had encouraging meetings with the managements of a number of our holdings last month. The stewards of Glenmorangie (5.2% of Trust assets) and A G Barr (5.3%) confirmed the growth opportunities for their brands. The Finance Director of the former noted that he had endorsed a capital expenditure of £500,000, which paltry sum nonetheless increases his capacity to distil Glenmorangie, a product with an IRR of nearly 30%, by a quarter. Robin Barr outlined his strategy to lift Barr's share of the English non-cola carbonated drinks market from its current 3.0% to 10.0%, a process which we believe will create substantive value for the company's owners. Trading is predictably tough for Reuters (3.4%) and in hindsight we committed too early to this investment. However, we were impressed that the order book at Reuters' software consultancy unit is at an all-time high, as its customers seek ways to streamline their businesses. We believe Reuters is best understood not as an information provider, now a commodity service, but as a provider of business solutions to the investment banking community and thus competing with systems designers, such as Oracle and IBM. This is little comfort in the present industry climate, but suggests that the valuation to be placed on Reuters' eventually recovering earnings can remain high. Finally, we were gratified to read the following extract from a piece of research by Morgan Stanley, reporting on the recent E3 Game Show in Los Angeles, the world's largest. 'Huge crowds flocked to catch a glimpse of the updated versions of classic Nintendo franchises...for the GameCube; these four titles without exaggeration stole the show at the Expo.' We share the judgement of Nintendo's management (4.0%) that the so-called console war will be won by the system that provides the most sought-after games. Gamers want to play Nintendo titles and they will not find them anywhere else but on the GameCube. Fund Manager Launch Date Denominated Currency Nick Train 22 January 2001 GBP Year End Dividend Benchmark 31st March Ex-date: June The annual average yield on Payment: August the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Sedol No Bloomberg 3001710 LTI LN The Board Management Fees Registered Address Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% p.a. Lindsell Train Investment Trust Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 77A High Street Donald Adamson 10% of annual increase Brentwood Michael Lindsell in the share price, plus ESSEX DM14 4RR dividend, above the gross annual yield of the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Disclaimer The contents in this document is solely for information purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or subscribe any securities or funds in any jurisdiction in which such distribution is not authorised. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice and cannot be relied upon in making any investment decision. Applications to invest in some of the funds must only be made on the basis of offer documents which may only be available for private circulation. The information contained in this document is published in good faith and neither Lindsell Train Limited nor any other person so connected assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information as provided. No representation is made or assurance given that any statements made, views, projections or forecasts are correct or that objectives will be achieved. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in the Fund. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Foreign exchange rates may cause the value of investments to go up or down. Investments may be subject to higher volatility in certain funds and the investment value may fall suddenly and substantially. Lindsell Train Limited 35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499 info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com Lindsell Train Limited is regulated by the FSA. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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