Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
24 March 2005
The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC
As at 28th Feb 2005
Fund Objective
To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute
value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of
Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5%
Consolidated Loan Stock.
Share Price GBP 114.50
Net Asset Value GBP 117.40
Premium (Discount) (2.5%)
Market Capitalisation GBP 22.9mn
Benchmark (21/2% Con Ann Avg Yield +4.8%) +0.4
Source: Bloomberg; NAV-Lindsell Train. Share Price
quoted is closing mid price. See Benchmark definition.
Performance History (based in 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 YTD 2005
GBP)
Net Asset Value % n/a +3.2 -9.6 +3.1 +23.7 +2.1
Share Price % n/a +18.5 -19.8 -8.7 +20.6 +13.2
Source: S&P Micropal. Based in GBP. Performance years listed Jan - Dec.
Launch date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends reinvested.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and
the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what
they invested.
2004 Performance Jan 04 Feb 04 Mar 04 Apr 04 May 04 Jun 04 Jul 04 Aug 04 Sep 04 Oct 04 Nov 04 Dec 04
Net Asset Value % +1.8 +3.3 +0.3 +2.3 -0.1 +2.1 -2.0 +4.8 +3.8 +1.4* +0.0* +3.7
Share Price % -2.3 +6.0 -0.6 +0.6 +2.3 +2.7 +0.5 +0.5 +8.6 +3.0 -1.9 +0.0
Source: S&P Micropal unless otherwise indicated. Based in GBP. Performance years
listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22
Jan 2001. With dividends reinvested. *Source: Lindsell Train Limited.
2005 Performance Jan 05 Feb 05 Mar 05 Apr 05 May 05 Jun 05 Jul 05 Aug 05 Sep 05 Oct 05 Nov 05 Dec 05
Net Asset Value % +1.4 +0.8 - - - - - - - - - -
Share Price % +8.9 +3.6 - - - - - - - - - -
Source: S&P Micropal unless otherwise indicated. Based in GBP. Performance
years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. With dividends reinvested.
*Source: Lindsell Train Limited.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and
the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what
they invested.
Industry Breakdown % of NAV
Bonds 23.7
Preference Shares 14.3
Equity - Media 9.0
Equity - Banks & Investment Co. 3.8
Equity - Leisure & Ent. 9.5
Equity - Food & Beverage 23.1
Investment Fund 22.1
Cash & Equivalent (5.5)
Total 100.0
Source: Lindsell Train
Top 10 Holdings % of NAV
Barr AG 10.4
US Gov Treasury 6.25% 10.3
HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 9.7
Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 9.5
Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 8.2
21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 7.7
Cadbury Schweppes 7.3
UK Treasury 2.5% 5.7
Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries 5.7
Diageo 5.4
Source: Lindsell Train
Fund Exposure Bonds Prefs Equity Funds Cash % of NAV
UK % 13.4 14.3 40.1 4.4 (5.7) 66.5
USA % 10.3 - 1.5 - 3.5 15.3
Europe (ex UK) % - - - - - -
Japan % - - 3.8 8.2 (3.3) 8.7
Global % - - - 9.5 - 9.5
Total 23.7 14.3 45.4 22.1 (5.5) 100.0
Source: Lindsell
Train
Fund Manager's Comments
In previous monthly reviews, notably December 2001, June 2002 and April 2004, we
outlined our expectation that developed world inflation should remain low as a
key justification for investing a proportion of the Trust in long-term fixed
interest: US and UK bonds and preference shares. Over the last 4 years the
Trust's US bond has declined in yield by 1%, the UK bonds by 0.25% and the
Halifax preference shares by 1%. Together with the income earned, the
performance of these assets has comfortably beaten our benchmark in local
currency terms. Now that long-term interest rates are close to their lowest
points since the Trust began we think it important to review this expectation.
Annual inflation in both the UK and USA has averaged 2.4% and 2.2% respectively
over the 4 year period, surprisingly low, we guess, for many observers given the
extent of policy stimulus (negative or zero real rates in 2002/3 and a massive
expansion of government debt) and the recent significant rise in commodity
prices, especially oil. More concerning is the long term effect of these
simulative policies on demand. Today's debt funded spending from consumers and
the government alike borrows from future demand when the competitive capacity of
emerging economies in terms of infrastructure and technology, will be better
harnessed to compete more effectively with the developed world. It is not
obvious how developed countries will avoid the disinflationary impact when end
demand moderates.
We continue to believe that whatever monetary stimulus central banks provide,
now or in the future, there is negligible chance that it would generate a wage
price spiral unless trade barriers are erected to limit the flow of goods and
services between the developed and the emerging world. The supply of labour in
the emerging world is too large to allow wages to rise in the developed world.
Take China as an example. Its labour force is bigger than the OECD's at 760m
people in 2003. Conservatively, excess labour is estimated at 150m people. With
9m new jobs created per annum, it is hardly able to cope with the new workers
entering the labour force let alone the migrants from rural areas looking for
work. As a result the booming economic growth of the last 10 years may have
quintupled exports to 35% of GDP but wages at the costal export factories have
barely changed. It will take decades before Chinese surplus labour is absorbed.
And then there is India; by 2035 it will have a working population greater than
China.
It is obviously unrealistic to directly compare the skill sets of Chinese
workers with those in developed country like the US and the UK. It takes time
for the influence of competitive forces to be harnessed and brought to bear over
the 7,000 miles that separate these nations. However the UK and US manufacturing
sector will bear testament to the indirect influence that cheap Chinese
competition is having on manufacturing as do the trade figures which show over
the last 5 years a two fold rise in Chinese exports to the UK and US versus a
50% rise in UK imports and a 125% rise in US imports to China. The advances in
technology and communications will if anything hasten competition in the future
and broaden China and India's threat to services, the dominant part of both the
US and UK economies.
With these longer-term considerations in mind it is not surprising that long-
term bond yields continue to trade near historical lows even when the monetary
authorities in both countries are raising interest rates and squeezing liquidity
(Greenspan's conundrum). The UK bond market already exhibits a negative sloped
yield curve (long term interest rates lower than short term ones). In the US
bond market the spread between short rates and long rates at 2% is still
positive but we would expect that difference to narrow in 2005 as short term
rates rise. We believe that at some juncture higher interest rates may well
cause demand in both economies to moderate. Coincidently inflationary
expectations may start falling again, allowing long term interest rates to
continue their decent towards 3%, our ultimate long term target for the yield on
our holdings in government bonds.
Fund Manager Launch Date Denomination
Nick Train 22 Jan 2001 GBP
Year End Dividend Benchmark
31st Mar Ex Date: June The annual average yield on the 21/2%
Payment: August Consolidated Loan Stock.
The Board Management Fees Registered Address
Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% Lindsell Train Investment Trust
Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual increase 77A High Street
Donald Adamson in the share price, plus dividend, Brentwood
Michael Lindsell above the gross annual yield of the 2 ESSEX CM14 4RR
1/2% Consolidated Loan Stock.
ISIN Bloomberg Listing
GB0031977944 LTI LN London Stock Exchange
Disclaimer
This document is intended for use by persons who are authorised by the UK
Financial Services Authority ('FSA') and those who are permitted to receive
such information in the UK. The information contained in this document does not
constitute an offer or invitation to buy or sell any investments. Nothing in
this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. Lindsell Train
and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in this investment.
The value of any investment in securities or funds and the income generated from
them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance cannot
be used as a guide or guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the
original amount you have invested. Changes in foreign exchange rates may cause
the value of your investment to go up or down. Some funds with higher gearing
may be subject to higher volatility and the investment value may change
substantially. The net asset value (NAV) performance of an investment trust is
not the same as its market share price performance.
Issued by Lindsell Train Limited
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
23 Mar 2005 LTL 000-024-5b
Lindsell Train Limited
35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ
Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499
info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com
Lindsell Train Limited is authorised and regulated by the
Financial Services Authority.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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