Results analysis from Kepler Trust Intelligence

Octopus Renewables Infra Trust PLC

18 September 2024

 

Octopus Renewables Infrastructure (ORIT)

18/09/2024

Results analysis from Kepler Trust Intelligence

Octopus Renewables Infrastructure (ORIT) produced a NAV total return of 2% for the six months to 30/06/2024. The trust's NAV fell marginally from 106.0p to 105.2p (-0.7%). The main negative movements related to the costs of paying dividends and financing costs, and these were largely offset by operational performance, valuation adjustments related to power prices, the sale at a premium of a Swedish wind asset, and the positive impact of a new PPA on the Crossdykes asset. Since IPO in December 2019 ORIT has generated a NAV total return of 31.2%.

Shareholder total return was -16.9%, with ORIT's share price tracking a wider move down across the renewable energy infrastructure peer group in the first quarter of 2024. Since IPO, shareholder total return is -11.3%.

The interim dividend of 3.01p is in line with the dividend target for the whole financial year to 31/12/2024 of 6.02p. The interim dividend was covered 1.33x (30/06/2023: 1.09x) If achieved, the target for the whole year would be a 4% increase, in-line with 2023 CPI inflation.

Taking Octopus Renewables Infrastructure's (ORIT) current discount to NAV of c. 24% and deducting ongoing charges, we estimate the share price is saying that the valuation discount rate is c. 10%, rather than the 7.0% it currently is. That valuation discount rate is validated by over £160m of disposals since December 2024 at figures above carrying value. This is, of course, an indicative number, but serves to highlight the very wide gap between the market's expectations and the possible outcome.

Overall then, while sentiment among investors remains weak largely on macro concerns that are starting to recede, the operational direction of the portfolio is positive and the capital recycling programme is providing the evidence that the discount to NAV is real, and thus returns from a narrowing discount could be very attractive. In the meantime, ORIT's yield is c. 7.6% and the discount c. 24%

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