Open Briefing

Roc Oil Company Limited 23 August 2006 Roc Oil Company Limited Level 14 1 Market St Sydney NSW 2000 Date of lodgement: 23-Aug-2006 Title: Open Briefing. Roc Oil. Changes to Reserves & Production Record of interview: corporatefile.com.au Roc Oil Company Limited ('ROC') has been very active this year and the share price has increased by around 60% since this time last year. Can you briefly recap your achievements so far? CEO John Doran We've had a very successful year so far - and we'll be working hard to ensure that it continues. I wouldn't be surprised if this extraordinary 1H 2006 hasn't left some shareholders wondering how to rank all the different activities. Specific 1H 2006 activities include an oversubscribed placement in the UK; completion of the Cliff Head development in the Perth Basin offshore Western Australia, within 14 months of the Final Investment Decision, which was a significant tick on our operator's report card; commencement of non-operated production in offshore Mauritania with further non-operated North Sea development projects set to join ROC's growing club of producing assets in 1H 2007; the discovery of the ROC-operated Wei 6-12 South oil field in the Beibu Gulf, offshore China and the A$350 million acquisition of the Zhao Dong producing fields in the Bohai Basin, offshore China. Unfortunately, there is neither the time nor space to cover all the events in a single Open Briefing(R) so it might be best to concentrate on changes to ROC's production and reserve profiles and how these activities impact on ROC both now and in the future. OFFSHORE CHINA corporatefile.com.au ROC recently announced that it had completed the purchase of a 24.5% operated interest in the Zhao Dong Block ('the Block') in the Bohai Bay, offshore China for a cash consideration of US$260 million. What impact will the transaction have on your net proved, probable and possible reserves? CEO John Doran In round figures, proved and probable ('2P') reserves have doubled to about 30 million barrels of oil ('MMBO'). We don't carry possible reserves because we look on that category as representing unbooked upside. corporatefile.com.au What impact will it have on net production? Can you also talk about the expected production profile over time at Zhao Dong? CEO John Doran Production shot up by more than 150%, and it is now in excess of 12,000 barrels of oil per day ('BOPD'). In terms of oil production by non-diversified, publicly-listed Australian explorers, ROC ranks fourth after Woodside Petroleum Ltd, Santos Ltd, and Oil Search Ltd. In China, ROC is the third largest foreign operator of gross oil production after Conoco Phillips, Inc and Kerr-McGee Corporation/Anadarko Petroleum Corporation. That's a reasonable step up compared to six months ago when ROC's production was less than 50 BOPD. corporatefile.com.au What does this deal say about ROC's strategic direction? CEO John Doran The deal reflects a well established strategy. We like diversity and we like to stay within our core areas. This deal diversifies ROC's production base by providing a third production leg in a core area where we previously didn't have any production. To be able to do this in China was particularly satisfying. We've been dealing with Chinese energy companies since 1998 and not only did the price-reward equation appeal, but it also represented a good strategic fit. corporatefile.com.au Why would Apache sell its 24.5% stake? CEO John Doran That's really a question for Apache. However, with company-wide proved reserves of approximately two billion barrels of oil equivalent, Zhao Dong, with its 15 million barrels of proved and probable reserves net to Apache, may not have been at the centre of that company's radar screen. In addition, Zhao Dong was Apache's only asset in China which contrasts with their recent growth activities which have focused on the Gulf of Mexico and Argentina. corporatefile.com.au How does this deal compare with other oil and gas asset acquisitions either in China or elsewhere in the world? What valuation metrics did you consider before agreeing to the acquisition? CEO John Doran There are very few comparable deals in the public domain in China. A purchase price of US$17.33/BBL for proved and probable reserves compares well with recent acquisition costs in other parts of the world, such as the North Sea and parts of West Africa. However, all these valuation metrics suffer from at least two drawbacks: firstly, they don't take into account the fact that different fiscal regimes provide different net-backs to industry investors; and secondly, they ignore the upside potential. The fiscal regime that applies to Zhao Dong is attractive to ROC for a number of specific reasons and we think that there may be upside potential to be realised in the block. Those two points allowed us to pay a fair price for the 2P reserves and little or nothing for the upside - and considering that this postulated upside is yet to be realised that seems to have been a fair price also. corporatefile.com.au You plan to develop a third field (C4) at Zhao Dong in 2007 which extends beyond the permit boundary. What development concept do you envisage? Do you expect any problematic issues with unitisation? CEO John Doran Unitisation details were agreed with the adjoining block co-venturers earlier this year, so there's no issue on that front. Coincidentally, there are quite a few similarities between the C4 development and the Cliff Head development, which ROC just completed. Both are unmanned platforms in shallow water, remotely controlled and linked by pipelines and umbilicals to treatment facilities, although in C4's case those facilities will be on an offshore platform, not onshore. In addition, the oils are not entirely dissimilar and there will also be an important water-injection component to the C4 development, just like Cliff Head. corporatefile.com.au ROC is taking a significant debt position and will finance the acquisition via a 12 month loan provided by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ('CBA'). How does this fit with ROC's conservative financial strategy? CEO John Doran The debt is well serviced by ROC's increasingly diversified production, so in that sense we remain relatively conservative. CBA was very good to deal with: decisive; constructive; and quick. The provision of a 12-month loan provides ROC with plenty of time to consider how best to restructure its finances in the longer term. There's no pressure in that respect. Whatever details we decide upon, the loan will be recast as a longer term corporate facility secured against the Company's other diverse assets, including currently producing fields and fields under development. corporatefile.com.au What are ROC's hedging plans? What upside exposure to the oil price will that give shareholders? CEO John Doran ROC's hedging programme has been detailed in recent announcements. In summary, the hedging programme is designed to expose shareholders to the benefits of increases in the oil price while, at the same time, placing a modest financial safety net under the Company in case oil prices tumble. In general terms, about 23% of the Company's forecast total production to June 2011 is hedged via oil price swaps at a weighted average price of US$68.40/BBL. The rest of the production is exposed to upward oil price movement. Some of the downside exposure not covered by the swaps is limited further by put options that cover an additional 4% of our forecast production for the period to 2011. We have in place two lines of put options which provide downside price protection at US$67.00/BBL and US$50.00/BBL, but they do not limit exposure to price upside because if the price is above the put strike price we'll simply allow the put options to lapse. corporatefile.com.au How do the PSC terms for Zhao Dong compare with those of other oil projects in China? CEO John Doran As far as we can tell, they are comparable, at least in a broad sense. In China, the Government is entitled to take up to 51% equity in development projects and if it's a commercial development you always expect them to do that. Once that Government bite is behind you the actual contract terms are relatively attractive. corporatefile.com.au What about sovereign risk? CEO John Doran Maybe we've been lucky since we started working with Chinese companies eight years ago. That is not a statement you can make with regard to some other parts of the world international oil business. Lots of people say that the Chinese are tough to deal with and they certainly negotiate to their full advantage, but what you don't hear so much about is that they are also very fair - at least that's ROC's experience to date. Dealing with China National Offshore Oil Corporation is like dealing with a western company, arguably better than dealing with many western companies. We haven't had as much experience dealing with PetroChina, the parent company of which bears comparison in many respects to any of the majors, but the contact we've had so far has been very positive and we've appreciated the welcoming attitude they've taken with regard to ROC coming into Zhao Dong Production Sharing Contract. corporatefile.com.au ROC also recently announced the Wei 6-12 South discovery in the Beibu Gulf, offshore China. To what extent did this discovery - and its possible development with ROC as operator - influence you to acquire the Zhao Dong Block? CEO John Doran The timing was very relevant. If the Beibu Gulf well had been dry, I suspect ROC would not have had the same appetite for Zhao Dong. However, the Beibu well was not dry and once it came in as a significant discovery we were able to apply an economy of scale to the Zhao Dong purchase that is very exciting. In order to secure Zhao Dong not only did ROC have to demonstrate its capabilities as an operator offshore China - which our work in the Beibu Gulf did very well - but we also had to demonstrate that we had the capacity to operate an offshore development and Cliff Head provided the evidence that we could deliver the goods in that respect. corporatefile.com.au Can you give an update on what you've achieved with the appraisal program at the Wei 6-12 South discovery? When do you expect to indicate the size of the discovery and potential production rates? CEO John Doran There's a lot of information being analysed as we speak. The discovery and appraisal of Wei 6-12S-1 was a fast track process. However, it will still be some months before we have a good handle on the size of the discovery. Until then we're not going to waste time with premature speculation about recoverable reserves. We've given the market guidance as to the amount of oil that may be in-place, many tens of millions of barrels. By that we mean that the in-place oil in the Wei 6-12 South structure - including parts of it that are yet to be drilled - and the neighbouring Wei 6-12 Field which we discovered in 2002, will range from say, 60 MMBO to towards 100 MMBO. If - and it is an 'if' because the review is ongoing - the in-place oil proves to be in this range then we would expect the fields to be commercial and would want to develop them as quickly as possible. corporatefile.com.au In addition to the Wei 6-12 South discovery, what previous discoveries could ROC potentially develop in the Beibu Gulf? CEO John Doran If you've been a dogged reader of ROC's Stock Exchange releases over the last four years you would find a very consistent theme with regard to our Joint Venture's operations in the Beibu Gulf: give us one commercial discovery, a single pearl, and we will likely string a few more together that would otherwise be uncommercial. There are several known accumulations in the southern part of the permit area which will merit a fresh look if the recent discovery gets the green light for development. corporatefile.com.au Is the acquisition of the Block an isolated opportunity in China or do you expect other asset deals or exploration success in China? CEO John Doran What's important at the moment is to bed down the Zhao Dong acquisition. There are other opportunities, but we have no intention of over-stretching to reach them. If they fit, fine. If they don't, that's OK too because we have plenty on our plate at the moment. The problem with most other opportunities is that they usually come to the market via industry auctions and we do our best to avoid those situations. The uniqueness and beauty of the Zhao Dong purchase was that we were able to bypass the standard industry bidding process. OFFSHORE MAURITANIA corporatefile.com.au With Chinguetti production performing lower than expectations, do you believe the field's reserves will be downgraded? CEO John Doran Absolutely. In a nutshell - production risk has replaced development risk, which is usually the case with new deep water fields. There's a lot of information available. That may sound as if it's a good thing - and it is in many ways - but it actually makes reserve recalculations more complex and very time consuming. It is certainly frustrating for all parties - market investors and participants alike - that there's no up to date guidance for Chinguetti reserves and a market vacuum has been created. The irony is that most observers apparently expect a reserve downgrade. The Chinguetti Field, which started production in late February 2006, only sustained a target production rate in excess of 70,000 BOPD for a short period before declining to 40,000 BOPD by mid-May. The decline was due to different factors in each of the six producing wells - gas production, early water arrival and/or limited productivity depending on the nature of the particular well and the way it was completed in the reservoir. On a more positive note, since early June the rate of production decline has slowed and the production capacity has been maintained generally between 32,000 to 38,000 BOPD. While the early decline was significantly faster than predicted and the more recent stabilisation of production is encouraging, the overall assessment of the impact on recoverable reserves - when completed - is expected to be negative although the in-place oil estimate may remain close to original forecasts. The Operator, Woodside, is reviewing the performance data in order to explain the decline with one of the potential key factors being a less continuous reservoir sand system than had been previously assessed. The Operator has advised the Joint Venture that it is not in a position to provide updated reserves at this time. ROC relies on the Operator's assessment and with a 3.25% equity in the field there isn't much point in ROC undertaking a full independent assessment at this time. However, based on the production and reservoir performance to date, ROC would not be surprised if Chinguetti's 123 MMBO 2P reserves were reduced by 25 to 50%. This view still assumes that Phase Two of the Development Plan - which involved the drilling of infill wells and was integral to the original reserve estimate and production forecasts - is implemented and is successful. OFFSHORE WESTERN AUSTRALIA corporatefile.com.au How has Cliff Head been performing? CEO John Doran So far, so good - but it's still early days. If it were not for downstream constraints the field could certainly be delivering at its nameplate capacity level of 15,000 BOPD - and that would be with one well, albeit one of the more modest producers, yet to come on stream. Recent production has generally ranged between 8,000 BOPD and 12,000 BOPD. Prior to first oil we said that the field would exceed 10,000 BOPD so that's an important box ticked. corporatefile.com.au You've mentioned that Chinguetti has moved from development risk to production risk - what production risks have you identified for Cliff Head? CEO John Doran The journey the oil makes from the downhole pumps in the offshore wells to the Kwinana refinery south of Perth requires a number of critical mechanical components to work well. The mechanical and system challenges we've experienced to date have been generally minor and manageable. If - and it's a big 'if' because production from Cliff Head has just begun - present production trends continue we'll be tempted to view that the main production risk for the field lies not in the rocks themselves, but in the hardware and the systems that move the oil from reservoir to refinery. If this proves to be the case, it will be a pleasant surprise because the pre-development view of the reservoir potential at Cliff Head was fairly subdued and we constructed our economics accordingly. But, there again, maybe we and Mother Nature are just going through a little honeymoon period at Cliff Head. Time will tell. corporatefile.com.au If you had one other area to highlight with regard to ROC's activities which would it be? CEO John Doran In a word: Angola. ROC is becoming a lot more balanced and diversified with regard to production, as we bed down the Zhao Dong acquisition and advance the potential development of our new field in the Beibu Gulf. However, we also have to maintain our exploration momentum - and onshore Angola will play a big part in that process. ROC's planned Angolan drilling programme will kick-off towards the end of this year or as early as possible in 2007. The precise timing will depend on which drilling rig we contract. We plan to drill two or three back-to-back wells based on seismic we acquired in 2005 and we hope to follow them with a further three or four wells subject to the number and nature of the prospects revealed by our current 2006 seismic. Whatever the details of our drilling plans, the rocks in Angola are every bit as prospective now as they were in January 2006 when they were subject to a lot more investor focus in the context of ROC's A$76 million placement to UK institutions. All that has happened in the meantime is that success on two separate fronts offshore China has moved the market spotlight from exploration in Angola to production and potential development in China. That's just a perception shift reflecting the most recent events. There's just as much reason to be excited about what ROC is doing onshore Angola now as there was six months ago. corporatefile.com.au Thank you John. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For further information on ROC please visit www.rocoil.com.au or call John Doran on (02) 8356 2000. To read other Open Briefings, or to receive future Open Briefings by email, please visit www.corporatefile.com.au DISCLAIMER: Corporate File Pty Ltd has taken reasonable care in publishing the information contained in this Open Briefing. It is information given in a summary form and does not purport to be complete. The information contained is not intended to be used as the basis for making any investment decision and you are solely responsible for any use you choose to make of the information. 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