Monthly Investment Report May 2022

RNS Number : 6997O

Ruffer Investment Company Limited

14 June 2022

 

RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED

(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41996)

LEI 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47

Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for May 2022.

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/6997O_1-2022-6-13.pdf

During May, the net asset value of the Company rose by 0.1%. This compared to the FTSE All-Share TR which rose by 0.7%.

Inflation concerns were overtaken by those of growing recession risk during the month and therefore our inflation sensitive gold exposure and index-linked gilt holdings cost the portfolio 0.7% and 2.0% respectively. Payer swaptions continued to play a vital role in hedging the portfolio interest rate exposure and contributed 0.7%. A significant positive performance contribution came from energy stocks (+0.6%).

The carnage in the long-dated inflation-linked bond market should not be understated. The 2073 index-linked bond is down 54% from its November 2021 all-time high, falling 22% in May alone. We have long called these assets the 'crown jewels' due to our conviction that they should provide the perfect protection against the world of financial repression we are entering. This remains the case but the sensitivity to rising rates we have warned about has now been felt. This illustrates the distinction we have been labouring; investing for inflation and investing for inflation volatility are not the same thing and conflating the two will be costly. Mr Market will make us crawl through fire for the gift of redemption and derivative protection via the unconventional toolkit remains essential to navigate choppy and dangerous markets. Inflation-linked bonds are now back to pre-Brexit prices - and yet in our assessment the likelihood and proximity of the inflationary denouement is much greater. We believe they offer exceptional asymmetry and we have been buying.

This month saw the UK chancellor impose a windfall tax on energy companies. Setting aside the dubious logic of windfall taxes, the reaction of the stocks was to rise. Ultimately, the setup for companies like BP and Shell is attractive because supply has been constrained due to a combination of a capital cycle and, lately, geopolitical sanctions. This energy crisis is a supply issue that requires supply side solutions. A windfall tax will do little to address the underlying problems, and will perpetuate the supply/demand mismatch which is creating their super-normal profits in the first place. However, crucially, it polls well at a time of popular unrest.

A key question for investors has been whether to buy the dip. The Nasdaq is down 29% from its November 2021 high but we are not convinced that value has emerged. We have only nibbled on equities, more in the pursuit of portfolio balance, than it is bullishness - adding to Japan, Meta and US Housebuilders. The bear market is only beginning to grizzle, the FTSE All-World TR is down only 6% this year. Given the cross-currents in markets and the economy, the short-term is foggy. We must not lose sight of the long-term inflationary dynamics that continue to build and risk eviscerating savers.

Enquiries:

Sanne Fund Services (Guernsey) Limited

Jamie Dodd

DDI: [phone]

Email: [e-mail]

 

END

 

 

MSCFLFIERTIVLIF