Monthly Investment Report - September 2019

RNS Number : 0460P

Ruffer Investment Company Limited

07 October 2019

 

RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED

(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41996)

LEI 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47

Attached is a link to the Investment Monthly Report for September 2019.

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/0460P_1-2019-10-7.pdf

During September, the net asset value of the Company fell by 0.6% (after allowing for the dividend of 0.9p declared on 19 September). This compares with a rise of 3% in the FTSE All-Share index.

Following the release of our report and accounts we are able to update the audited ongoing charges figure. We are pleased to note that thanks to the efforts of the board the expense ratio has dropped from 1.18% to 1.13.

September's moves unwound much of the damage done in August's market move. The Company finished the first nine months of 2019 with an appreciation of 7% - a reasonable outcome when viewed in the context of a portfolio which is positioned defensively and has carried protective assets through a benign period for markets.

Everywhere politicians, policymakers and actors on the global stage may be pushing things too far. Peggy Noonan in the Wall Street Journal suggested that 'everyone now making decisions grew up in the past sixty years, a time of historic wealth creation, human growth and relative stability… they think this is normal… in this cynical age they've grown too trusting of good fortune.'

This blind faith that, no matter what the risks, everything will work out alright is prevalent in many places. It is in Trump's insouciance, in parts of the Brexit debate and in the Hong Kong and gilet jaune protests where, after initial success, the protesters have been emboldened to push for more.

In the investment sphere examples abound of things being taken too far. We have opined before about the dangers lurking in the venture capital unicorns. Some of these businesses will change the world, most will not. New era thinking cannot obfuscate the numbers indefinitely. WeWork's IPO flop was an example of corporate governance, jargon and a valuation which went beyond the pale. The primary backer of WeWork is Softbank and their own ambitious plans for yet another $100bn Vision Fund are also possibly taking things a little too far.

The future is an uncertain place and yet there is a central thread to these diffuse stories; none of these protagonists has allowed any room for doubt. Each is playing a winner-takes-all strategy.

Due to the binary nature of many of these issues: Brexit, deal or no deal, China, trading partner or strategic adversary, US elections, free marketeer or an anti-capitalist; it is plausible that markets are struggling to discount or weigh events accurately. This makes the current situation brittle with markets likely to respond sharply up or down when events break one way or the other. We only need to look at the Argentine stockmarket's one day fall of 37% for an extreme example of this path dependency. One day everything was fine, the next it wasn't.

By nature we have an ardour for ambiguity. Our portfolio construction hinges around accepting that we do not possess a crystal ball and we deliberately build a collection of offsetting assets which will be robust, and hopefully thrive, under the full range of potential outcomes.

On 31 October 2019, Steve Russell is stepping down as one of the fund managers for the Ruffer Investment Company. Hamish Baillie and Duncan MacInnes will continue to manage the Company's investment portfolio. Steve has been a fund manager for the Company since inception in 2004 and will remain part of the wider investment process at Ruffer.

Enquiries:

Praxis Fund Services Limited

Shona Darling

DDI: [phone]

Email: [e-mail] 

 

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